Running down the board and here's who looks good to me so far. This methodology worked pretty well last week as I narrowed my leans down to my top 4 plays and we went 3-1. (I shoulda put more down on Colorado though).
South Carolina +3.5 vs Mississippi - Gamecocks play to their competiton. I'm always interested when they get points, especially at home.
Georgia Tech -2.5 vs North Carolina - Still not sold on UNC. They are definently nowhere near the calibre of Miami's O-Line nor the team speed on defense. Paul Johnson will have some solutions and Ga Tech will be much sharper in this game than they were last Thurs, especially with the couple days rest.
Indiana +20 at Michigan - Indiana looked better than I thought they would vs Akron. This could be a good spot for them to try to swipe a Big Ten win with Michigan having a rivalry game with Michigan State the following week.
Michigan St. at Wisconsin (Over ?) - If this is anywhere around 54-55, I may pounce on the over here, maybe all the way up to 57. This looks like a potential shootout. Neither side looks like they have much of a defense while both have very capable mid-deep range passing games of 9 yards/attempt.
Mississippi St. +14 vs LSU - Seems like alot of points to give the Bulldogs here. There offense has improved dramatically from last year and LSU looks a year away from being automatic for 10+ wins again.
Va Tech +1.5 vs Miami FL - Very emotional revenge/statement win for Miami FL. You could see this team begin to unravel before the game even ended as the offense kind of puttered down the stretch. Ga Tech brought Jacorey Harris absolutely NOOOOOO Pressure. That will change with Beamer, Hokies, Blacksburg. I'm loving this play right now as it is, and I think there's a chance we may actually see Va Tech get MORE points in this one. If this gets to 3, I'm buying the hook and UNLOADING.
Idaho +16 at Northern Illinois - NIU coming off a big win over a Big Ten team will have their guard down here. Idaho has been awful in recent years but there is absolutely no doubt that they are up this year being 3-0 ATS. They have shown a solid deep threat in the passing game and their run defense isn't too shabby.
Navy -27.5 vs Western Kentucky - Really don't see how Navy doesn't score on nearly every drive. Western Kentucky has a horrible D-line/Rush defense and that's what Navy does best. W Ky has shown nothing offensively against teams they should of been able to do something. They have much less offense than Louisiana Tech who the Midshipmen bottled up quite easily. They gave up about 600 yards to a mediocre Tennessee offense.
Tennessee -20.5 vs Ohio - I usually go against teams after playing in a rivalry game (especially tough games), but I like Tennessee here. I think they actually gathered alot of confidence from their performance vs Florida. Their defense is absolutely outstanding and there offense may struggled against some tough SEC (and Pac-10 teams), but they should be able to roll up some yards (and points) against mid-level MAC team. Don't see Ohio scoring more than 10 here.
Louisville +11.5 at Utah - Utah's down and I was really impressed with Louisville's rush D vs Kentucky. Here's another team that I think gathered a moral victory and some confidence by hanging around a game that most wrote them off for. Utah has not impressed me. This is alot of points for an MWC team whose offense doesn't look that electric.
Iowa at Penn State (Under ??) - Penn State's offense sucks donk man. It hasn't been this bad since the early 2000s when they had those awful sub .500 years. Darryl Clark ain't bad, but he has no receivers and the O-Line just sucks. Penn State's D however looks very very strong. They haven't played anyone big yet, but they have some NFL Talent on that side of the ball. May also consider Iowa and the points here, but if the total isn't lower than 42, I'm crushing this under. This has 16-6, 20-13, 14-3 written all over it, or even, remember 6-4 in 2003?
Stanford -7 vs Washington - If the line moves toward Huskies like I suspect it may, I'm loading up on the Cardinals. You won't find a bigger spot for a post-upset letdown than this one. Washington will be basking in their glory all week and Stanford will be nothing more than an afterthought during practice. Unlike USC, Stanford will be able to THROW the ball this year. Andrew Luck is very solid QB and he has some deep threat wideouts. They can also run the ball fairly decently.
Thoughts?
:toast:
South Carolina +3.5 vs Mississippi - Gamecocks play to their competiton. I'm always interested when they get points, especially at home.
Georgia Tech -2.5 vs North Carolina - Still not sold on UNC. They are definently nowhere near the calibre of Miami's O-Line nor the team speed on defense. Paul Johnson will have some solutions and Ga Tech will be much sharper in this game than they were last Thurs, especially with the couple days rest.
Indiana +20 at Michigan - Indiana looked better than I thought they would vs Akron. This could be a good spot for them to try to swipe a Big Ten win with Michigan having a rivalry game with Michigan State the following week.
Michigan St. at Wisconsin (Over ?) - If this is anywhere around 54-55, I may pounce on the over here, maybe all the way up to 57. This looks like a potential shootout. Neither side looks like they have much of a defense while both have very capable mid-deep range passing games of 9 yards/attempt.
Mississippi St. +14 vs LSU - Seems like alot of points to give the Bulldogs here. There offense has improved dramatically from last year and LSU looks a year away from being automatic for 10+ wins again.
Va Tech +1.5 vs Miami FL - Very emotional revenge/statement win for Miami FL. You could see this team begin to unravel before the game even ended as the offense kind of puttered down the stretch. Ga Tech brought Jacorey Harris absolutely NOOOOOO Pressure. That will change with Beamer, Hokies, Blacksburg. I'm loving this play right now as it is, and I think there's a chance we may actually see Va Tech get MORE points in this one. If this gets to 3, I'm buying the hook and UNLOADING.
Idaho +16 at Northern Illinois - NIU coming off a big win over a Big Ten team will have their guard down here. Idaho has been awful in recent years but there is absolutely no doubt that they are up this year being 3-0 ATS. They have shown a solid deep threat in the passing game and their run defense isn't too shabby.
Navy -27.5 vs Western Kentucky - Really don't see how Navy doesn't score on nearly every drive. Western Kentucky has a horrible D-line/Rush defense and that's what Navy does best. W Ky has shown nothing offensively against teams they should of been able to do something. They have much less offense than Louisiana Tech who the Midshipmen bottled up quite easily. They gave up about 600 yards to a mediocre Tennessee offense.
Tennessee -20.5 vs Ohio - I usually go against teams after playing in a rivalry game (especially tough games), but I like Tennessee here. I think they actually gathered alot of confidence from their performance vs Florida. Their defense is absolutely outstanding and there offense may struggled against some tough SEC (and Pac-10 teams), but they should be able to roll up some yards (and points) against mid-level MAC team. Don't see Ohio scoring more than 10 here.
Louisville +11.5 at Utah - Utah's down and I was really impressed with Louisville's rush D vs Kentucky. Here's another team that I think gathered a moral victory and some confidence by hanging around a game that most wrote them off for. Utah has not impressed me. This is alot of points for an MWC team whose offense doesn't look that electric.
Iowa at Penn State (Under ??) - Penn State's offense sucks donk man. It hasn't been this bad since the early 2000s when they had those awful sub .500 years. Darryl Clark ain't bad, but he has no receivers and the O-Line just sucks. Penn State's D however looks very very strong. They haven't played anyone big yet, but they have some NFL Talent on that side of the ball. May also consider Iowa and the points here, but if the total isn't lower than 42, I'm crushing this under. This has 16-6, 20-13, 14-3 written all over it, or even, remember 6-4 in 2003?
Stanford -7 vs Washington - If the line moves toward Huskies like I suspect it may, I'm loading up on the Cardinals. You won't find a bigger spot for a post-upset letdown than this one. Washington will be basking in their glory all week and Stanford will be nothing more than an afterthought during practice. Unlike USC, Stanford will be able to THROW the ball this year. Andrew Luck is very solid QB and he has some deep threat wideouts. They can also run the ball fairly decently.
Thoughts?
:toast:
