[h=1]Finding underdog value in Week 4[/h][h=3]Why there is tremendous value on teams that have started slowly[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Three weeks of the 2014 season are in the books and the perceptions of NFL teams are starting to shift from preseason expectations to early results from the current season. With actual performances to reference, fans, analysts and bettors are comfortable making blanket statements regarding good and bad teams, even though we're only three games into a 16-game marathon.
As contrarian bettors, we can take advantage of these shifting perceptions by continuing to pinpoint overreactions, both good and bad, by either playing on "bad teams" or betting against "good" ones. Using this philosophy, I turned to our Bet Labs analysis software to create a system with a 61.1 percent ATS win rate over the past nine seasons that has three plays in Week 4.
When attempting to unearth contrarian value, sometimes the simplest systems provide the best results. The first strategy I tested for Week 4 <offer>was the idea of betting against teams who start a season 0-3 straight-up. With the quick application of Bet Labs' "team win percent" filter, I determined that NFL teams winless through Week 3 have performed well in Week 4, posting a 22-14 (61.1 percent) ATS record since 2005.</offer>
[h=4]Teams with 0-3 SU records[/h]*Since 2005
ESPN INSIDER
Three weeks of the 2014 season are in the books and the perceptions of NFL teams are starting to shift from preseason expectations to early results from the current season. With actual performances to reference, fans, analysts and bettors are comfortable making blanket statements regarding good and bad teams, even though we're only three games into a 16-game marathon.
As contrarian bettors, we can take advantage of these shifting perceptions by continuing to pinpoint overreactions, both good and bad, by either playing on "bad teams" or betting against "good" ones. Using this philosophy, I turned to our Bet Labs analysis software to create a system with a 61.1 percent ATS win rate over the past nine seasons that has three plays in Week 4.
When attempting to unearth contrarian value, sometimes the simplest systems provide the best results. The first strategy I tested for Week 4 <offer>was the idea of betting against teams who start a season 0-3 straight-up. With the quick application of Bet Labs' "team win percent" filter, I determined that NFL teams winless through Week 3 have performed well in Week 4, posting a 22-14 (61.1 percent) ATS record since 2005.</offer>
[h=4]Teams with 0-3 SU records[/h]*Since 2005
ATS Record | Units Won | ROI | |
---|---|---|---|
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records, units won and ROI above. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system has won or lost after factoring in the vig. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $662 ($100 x 6.62 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from a sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. |