Finding March Madness value
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
I have lot of affinity for the town of St. Louis.
My grandparents were born there, raised there and died there. My mom grew up there. My dad went to grad school there. I spent every vacation in grammar school jumping on a plane -- by myself -- to meet my Grammy and Poppy at Lambert Field for a weeklong visit. They lived in an apartment five minutes from The Sporting News, which I thought made the town the center of the sports writing world.
The first hockey game I went to? Blues (my grandmother made me get dressed up because we were going out somewhere other than a park). The first World Series game I went to? Brewers at Cardinals. Second? Royals at Cardinals (my grandmother knew everyone and she was seriously fierce; requests were not denied). I met a girl on spring break in the Bahamas my senior year in high school. She was from St. Louis -- actually went to the same high school as my mom (relax, it was many years later). The magazine's previous editor-in-chief, the guy who recommended me for the job, is from St. Louis.
Having been on the East Coast for so long, St. Louis has often felt like my little secret. When people talk about it, I don't think of clichés -- it's a baseball town, try the frozen custard, eat the toasted ravioli, visit the Arch -- I think of Spiro's restaurant, where my grandparents took me on special occasions. I think of the Winchell's on Lindbergh Boulevard, where we always stopped at on the way to the airport. I think of the engagement ring my grandmother left me when she died, the nicest thing she ever owned, which I eventually gave to the agreeable lady who became my bride. (The dough I saved helped us buy an apartment. Two-fer!)
I get a very strange feeling that at least during the next week, from the moment the NCAA tourney seeds are announced until the Saint Louis Billikens tip off, I am going to be overdosing on damn nostalgia. Because I am going to be hearing a lot about SLU. On Thursday night, when I asked Sal from madduxsports.com to give me his list of teams that could potentially be undervalued in every game and make a run in the tourney, Rick Majerus' team was the first one he mentioned.
This is part of what makes handicapping college basketball alternately awesome and infuriating: The team you, as a smart bettor, have paid attention to since November is now going to become every analyst's darling. Nice work, genius. You've been on this team all season. But will the newfound hype eliminate the value?
At this point, most people think the Billikens have had a very nice year. They are 24-6, including a 15-1 record at home. But they are not on the casual hoops fan's radar. They received just one vote for the AP Top 25 and just six for the ESPN coaches poll.
Now, ask handicappers what they think of SLU and they will tell you that against the spread it is 16-9-1. They will tell you that Kenpom.com has the Billikens ranked as the 12th-best team in the country. They will tell you, as Sal told me, "They are still undervalued. My model is consistently picking St. Louis more often than not. Plus, for the people betting, St. Louis takes money every game, which means I am not the only one that thinks they are undervalued."
The Billikens aren't the Atlantic 10's No. 1 seed, but they did beat the Pac-12's top dog, the Washington Huskies, by 13. Just as impressive is that they lost to New Mexico by only four in Albuquerque. "Their power rating keeps going up," Sal said. "But because they are beating A-10 teams, it isn't translating."
By Monday morning, when the team is packing its bags to be the No. 10 seed in Omaha, Neb., and take on San Diego State (at least that is what Joe Lunardi thinks), I would not be surprised if the Billikens were one of most talked about, most frequently picked upsets in the first round.
With an eye toward picking teams that will advance but won't have any value, as well as teams that could advance and will retain betting value, I asked Sal to drop some opinions. St. Louis was one of those squads he likes to maintain its value and advance, despite the soon-to-be heaps of praise . Here are two more:
Sal: "Alabama has value. They have an awesome coach who has a take-no-crap attitude, which we can see from all the guys he suspended. I think it has brought the team closer together. If you look at their noncon [nonconference] wins, they beat Wichita State, VCU and Purdue, and now the team is getting better and picking up [coach Anthony] Grant's stuff. And because of the losses they have had in conference, the market and the regular people think it might not be as good as it is. It's hard to adjust when a team suspends important players, but I think this is becoming a better team."
Sal: "Creighton is another team that is well-coached and will run one of the best offenses. They will run a bunch of complicated stuff and get shooters open. Trying to prepare for this team on a second day will be a nightmare. They may not have value the first day, that is when you want to go against those guys, because they can be overvalued after winning the conference tourney. But if they play a stupid team in the second round, I expect them to run them out. My model has them underrated. My one fear is them playing in the big dome because it is harder to shoot in those facilities."
Here are two teams Sal thinks will advance but won't have much betting value:
Sal: "Wichita State is the same team as Creighton, only higher value. They played a tough noncon schedule, losing to Bama and Temple. They crushed UNLV by 19. Their best game was against Davidson on the road, where Davidson is awesome, and they crushed them like it was nothing."
Sal: "This only applies if they win the conference tourney. If they don't I could see value here. I still have Ohio State as the third-best team in the country. If they lose before the conference title game of the Big 10, they may end up as a 3[-seed], that would be someone who is a 2 or a 3 who can make a deep run. My model just loves them. They will play a really good half-court game and defend, and they have the best defense in the country. They also won't give up offensive rebounds, which leads to less possessions. I worry about their 3s, but their 2-point offense is amongst the best in the country. Good coaching, good defense, good half-court [game] and you can make a run. And if they are a 2 or a 3, they make sneak in with some value."
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
I have lot of affinity for the town of St. Louis.
My grandparents were born there, raised there and died there. My mom grew up there. My dad went to grad school there. I spent every vacation in grammar school jumping on a plane -- by myself -- to meet my Grammy and Poppy at Lambert Field for a weeklong visit. They lived in an apartment five minutes from The Sporting News, which I thought made the town the center of the sports writing world.
The first hockey game I went to? Blues (my grandmother made me get dressed up because we were going out somewhere other than a park). The first World Series game I went to? Brewers at Cardinals. Second? Royals at Cardinals (my grandmother knew everyone and she was seriously fierce; requests were not denied). I met a girl on spring break in the Bahamas my senior year in high school. She was from St. Louis -- actually went to the same high school as my mom (relax, it was many years later). The magazine's previous editor-in-chief, the guy who recommended me for the job, is from St. Louis.
Having been on the East Coast for so long, St. Louis has often felt like my little secret. When people talk about it, I don't think of clichés -- it's a baseball town, try the frozen custard, eat the toasted ravioli, visit the Arch -- I think of Spiro's restaurant, where my grandparents took me on special occasions. I think of the Winchell's on Lindbergh Boulevard, where we always stopped at on the way to the airport. I think of the engagement ring my grandmother left me when she died, the nicest thing she ever owned, which I eventually gave to the agreeable lady who became my bride. (The dough I saved helped us buy an apartment. Two-fer!)
I get a very strange feeling that at least during the next week, from the moment the NCAA tourney seeds are announced until the Saint Louis Billikens tip off, I am going to be overdosing on damn nostalgia. Because I am going to be hearing a lot about SLU. On Thursday night, when I asked Sal from madduxsports.com to give me his list of teams that could potentially be undervalued in every game and make a run in the tourney, Rick Majerus' team was the first one he mentioned.
This is part of what makes handicapping college basketball alternately awesome and infuriating: The team you, as a smart bettor, have paid attention to since November is now going to become every analyst's darling. Nice work, genius. You've been on this team all season. But will the newfound hype eliminate the value?
At this point, most people think the Billikens have had a very nice year. They are 24-6, including a 15-1 record at home. But they are not on the casual hoops fan's radar. They received just one vote for the AP Top 25 and just six for the ESPN coaches poll.
Now, ask handicappers what they think of SLU and they will tell you that against the spread it is 16-9-1. They will tell you that Kenpom.com has the Billikens ranked as the 12th-best team in the country. They will tell you, as Sal told me, "They are still undervalued. My model is consistently picking St. Louis more often than not. Plus, for the people betting, St. Louis takes money every game, which means I am not the only one that thinks they are undervalued."
The Billikens aren't the Atlantic 10's No. 1 seed, but they did beat the Pac-12's top dog, the Washington Huskies, by 13. Just as impressive is that they lost to New Mexico by only four in Albuquerque. "Their power rating keeps going up," Sal said. "But because they are beating A-10 teams, it isn't translating."
By Monday morning, when the team is packing its bags to be the No. 10 seed in Omaha, Neb., and take on San Diego State (at least that is what Joe Lunardi thinks), I would not be surprised if the Billikens were one of most talked about, most frequently picked upsets in the first round.
With an eye toward picking teams that will advance but won't have any value, as well as teams that could advance and will retain betting value, I asked Sal to drop some opinions. St. Louis was one of those squads he likes to maintain its value and advance, despite the soon-to-be heaps of praise . Here are two more:
Sal: "Alabama has value. They have an awesome coach who has a take-no-crap attitude, which we can see from all the guys he suspended. I think it has brought the team closer together. If you look at their noncon [nonconference] wins, they beat Wichita State, VCU and Purdue, and now the team is getting better and picking up [coach Anthony] Grant's stuff. And because of the losses they have had in conference, the market and the regular people think it might not be as good as it is. It's hard to adjust when a team suspends important players, but I think this is becoming a better team."
Sal: "Creighton is another team that is well-coached and will run one of the best offenses. They will run a bunch of complicated stuff and get shooters open. Trying to prepare for this team on a second day will be a nightmare. They may not have value the first day, that is when you want to go against those guys, because they can be overvalued after winning the conference tourney. But if they play a stupid team in the second round, I expect them to run them out. My model has them underrated. My one fear is them playing in the big dome because it is harder to shoot in those facilities."
Here are two teams Sal thinks will advance but won't have much betting value:
Sal: "Wichita State is the same team as Creighton, only higher value. They played a tough noncon schedule, losing to Bama and Temple. They crushed UNLV by 19. Their best game was against Davidson on the road, where Davidson is awesome, and they crushed them like it was nothing."
Sal: "This only applies if they win the conference tourney. If they don't I could see value here. I still have Ohio State as the third-best team in the country. If they lose before the conference title game of the Big 10, they may end up as a 3[-seed], that would be someone who is a 2 or a 3 who can make a deep run. My model just loves them. They will play a really good half-court game and defend, and they have the best defense in the country. They also won't give up offensive rebounds, which leads to less possessions. I worry about their 3s, but their 2-point offense is amongst the best in the country. Good coaching, good defense, good half-court [game] and you can make a run. And if they are a 2 or a 3, they make sneak in with some value."
