(I have no opinion on this, only posting for others)
[h=1]2014 Final Four betting guide[/h][h=3]Best spread bets, total bets, coaches' ATS records, public teams and more[/h]By ESPN Insider Vegas contributors | ESPN Insider
Insider's group of Vegas experts, Dave Tuley, Ted Sevransky, Geoff Kulesa ("Wunderdog"), Sal Selvaggio, PJ Walsh and Jay Kornegay, is back to give you its thoughts on the best bets for this year's Final Four. Power ratings for all four teams, coaches' tourney records, whether to hedge your futures bet, most public Final Four teams and ATS picks for both games -- it's all here.
[h=3]Final Four Vegas Rankings[/h]
What a difference two weeks makes.
When we last updated the Vegas Rankings using the combined power ratings of our panel of handicappers -- Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Geoff Kulesa of wunderdog.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- in ESPN Insider's NCAA tournament betting guide, Florida was our No. 2 team behind Louisville with a power rating of 99.5, and it now tops the list at 100. OK, not too much of a change there. But when we look at the rest of the Final Four, we see that the other remaining teams have closed the gap.
Two weeks ago, we had Florida 10.5 points ahead of UConn, the team the Gators will face in the first national semifinal Saturday, but now it's rated only six points higher than the Huskies. Kentucky and Wisconsin also have closed the gap.
Let's take a look at each matchup compared to our current power ratings:<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2014 Final Four Vegas Rankings[/h]
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1-seed Florida versus 7-seed UConn: The oddsmakers and the betting market are pretty much in agreement with our number. The line opened as low as minus-5 at the MGM books in Las Vegas, with most books opening at Florida minus-6. Early money drove the line up to 6.5 and even 7 at some books, but the market then felt that was too high and corrected itself. As of early Thursday morning, the consensus line is 6.5. That looks like the right number, although I should point out that both Sevransky and Kulesa had Florida as a bigger favorite. (I have Florida as only four points better than UConn.)
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8-seed Kentucky versus 2-seed Wisconsin: Two weeks ago, we had Wisconsin a half point better than Kentucky, but that has flipped, with the Wildcats half a point ahead of the Badgers. Most of the early betting has come in on Kentucky, so it looks as if there's the slightest bit of value on Wisconsin, but it's pretty much a coin flip any way you look at it.
[h=3]Final Four best bets[/h]
[h=3]7-seed UConn Huskies versus 1-seed Florida Gators[/h]
I've written it twice the past fortnight, when going against Florida with Albany plus-22 and Dayton plus-10, and I'll say it again: Florida isn't a spread-covering machine, as it tends to play great defense and grind out wins. The Gators are a mediocre 18-15-1 ATS on the season and 2-2 ATS in the tournament. And now we get six points against them with UConn (the team that, in December, dealt Florida its last loss), which has been very good to us in the tournament.
UConn is playing even better than it was in December, with Shabazz Napier doing his best Kemba Walker impression from when UConn won the NCAA title three years ago. Napier has taken over games when needed, but he also has relied on a supporting cast that has really stepped up in the tournament with backcourt mate Ryan Boatright and dual inside-outside threat DeAndre Daniels often looking like the best player on the court. Florida has a lot of talent, too, and a lot of people will talk about the Gators being motivated by revenge, but I'd rather have the team that proved it could beat the other in the previous meeting, especially when we're getting points.
ATS pick: Connecticut* (asterisk denotes best bet)
Florida is the best team in the country and the heavy favorite to cut down the nets Monday night. Billy Donovan has been to three previous Final Fours, reaching the championship game each time. All three national semifinal games in those runs resulted in double-digit wins and point-spread covers for the Gators.
I'm not looking to bet against the team I expect to win the title, even though the first meeting between these two teams came down to the last possession. The Gators in April aren't the same team that they were in early December, and I'm not convinced that the Huskies' 3-point shooting (11 of their 23 made baskets in the first meeting came from beyond the arc) will be as efficient in the rematch.
ATS pick: Florida
Donovan has his team playing great defense, allowing just 55 points per game in the tourney, and one of the intangibles it has over everyone else remaining is experience. You rarely see veteran teams in college basketball anymore, but Florida is one, with a trio of seniors leading the way in Casey Prather (13.8 PPG), Patric Young and Scottie Wilbekin. The Gators' stats have been dominant, too. They were fifth in the SEC in points scored and tops in field goal shooting as well as No. 1 in points allowed and third in field goal shooting defense (40 percent). Everyone is raving about Kentucky, as it is the hot team, but this Florida group rolled through the SEC tourney and has beaten Kentucky three times.
UConn did beat Florida early in the season, but Florida shot 49 percent, outrebounded the Huskies 34-26 and gets a chance at revenge here. UConn hit 11 of 24 3-pointers in that game, but chances are it won't shoot nearly as well in the rematch. The Gators are 11-3 ATS this season vs. elite teams like Connecticut (teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game). Lay the points on Florida to advance with a big win.
ATS pick: Florida
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<!-- end inline 2 -->I really like Ollie, and what he has done is impressive, but I think the fairy tale ends Saturday. I've been saying Florida is the best team in the country since January, and I haven't seen anything to change my mind. I made the line Florida minus-6.5 off my power ratings, so there isn't much value here. If I had to make a pick, I'd lean Florida.
ATS pick: Florida
[h=3]8-seed Kentucky Wildcats versus 2-seed Wisconsin Badgers[/h]
Even though the Badgers aren't the defensive juggernaut they've been in recent years, their best chance is to try to slow the pace and not get in a track meet with the Wildcats, so the best bet in this game might be the under.
ATS pick: Kentucky (lean to under 139.5)
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is here despite getting subpar efforts from every starter not named Frank Kaminsky in its upset of Arizona. The Badgers are the only team standing with wins over three No. 1 seeds this season, knocking off Florida and Virginia in nonconference play. The Big Ten was as tough as any conference in college hoops this season, so Bo Ryan's squad is certainly battle tested. I've picked the Badgers in each of my last two preview columns, and I'm not going to jump off that train here.
We're not going to see many fast-break points in this one, with both teams playing excellent transition defense throughout the tournament. Nor are we going to see many open perimeter looks for either squad; every shot is contested by these two defenses. Unless this game is an absolute foul fest, I'm expecting the winner to struggle to reach 70 points.
ATS pick: Wisconsin*
Over/under pick: Under 139.5
This Kentucky team was good in SEC play offensively but not great in field goal shooting defense (sixth in the SEC) or scoring defense (seventh). Wisconsin has outstanding ball movement and unselfish play from being together so long, and Kentucky is the first team to start five freshmen in an Elite Eight win since Michigan in 1992. This is where I think its youth catches up with it.
Wisconsin is 16-4 straight-up in road and neutral-court games, and on a 10-1 ATS run in nonconference games. Play Wisconsin to advance to the final.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
ATS pick: Kentucky
<CENTER>[h=3]Best/worst coaches to bet on from PJ Walsh[/h]</CENTER>
Because the sample size of Final Four games is so small, we can't uncover many meaningful historical trends that we're comfortable betting this weekend. As a result, we'll be tracking other information, such as public betting percentages and line moves, throughout the week before deciding whether there's value in the Final Four.
With plenty of time between now and tipoff, we used our Bet Labs software to compile NCAA tournament ATS records for each of the coaches represented in this year's Final Four and have listed them below. Interestingly, each of these coaches has been profitable (in terms of units won) for NCAA tournament bettors, highlighted by Donovan's and Calipari's continued postseason overperformance dating back to 2005.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]NCAA tournament ATS records, since 2005[/h]
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[h=3]Should you hedge a futures bet now?[/h]To hedge or not to hedge, that is the question (sorry, it had to be done).
I get the question a lot from people holding future tickets who are afraid they will lose and not get anything out of it. I usually tell them to do whatever makes them feel comfortable, but the best advice I give is to avoid putting themselves in this position in the first place.
In almost every case, instead of betting a future in a single-elimination tournament (or in a series of series), it's best to bet the money line on the first game (or first series) and parlay your winnings on each successive game (or series). The payoff is almost always higher in the long run, plus you give yourself the option to back out of the play if there's an injury or to pull out profits as you go.
For example, I ended up starting with $20 plays on Kentucky (40-1) and Baylor (100-1) and passed on Wichita State because it was a much higher-priced favorite in its opening game and was on a collision course with Kentucky in its second game, figuring I could start with the Shockers if they got past the Wildcats. My UK bet at minus-210 versus Kansas State brought back $29 and change, and I put that $29 on Wildcats plus-190 against Wichita State. That brought back $84, and I put that on plus-180 against Louisville to collect $235. It was tough to do, but I put it all on Kentucky minus-140 against Michigan and now have $402 (19-1 on my original investment). Now I'm faced with the decision to let it ride or dip into some of my profits. I think I'm going to pull out $40 and roll over the rest.
I used that same strategy with Baylor but didn't feel as confident with the Bears against Wisconsin, so I pulled out my original $20 bet and just bet the remaining $60 I had made on Baylor plus-165. Even though that lost, I didn't lose anything overall. I wouldn't have that option with a regular futures bet.
Florida isn't easy to hedge and still lock in a substantial profit because of the low 4-1 return on investment for its odds. That being said, if you have one unit on Florida, you can hedge with a half-unit money-line bet on UConn at plus-250, which leaves room for a full unit hedge bet on the underdog (also on the money line) in the national title game, where the Gators will be favored (if they make it) against either foe.
All three of the other potential champions are relatively easy to hedge, if you choose to lock in some profit at the expense of diminishing your return if that team wins.
If you have one unit on Kentucky, you can bet two units on the Wisconsin money line (plus-115) with plenty left in reserve to hedge if the Wildcats survive and advance to the title game.
If you have the Badgers at 20-1, you can cover the cost of your bet with a one-unit play on the Kentucky money line (minus-135) in the semifinal, or you can take the risk of a one- or two-point Kentucky victory and just bet the Wildcats minus-2 without laying that extra juice.
Those with UConn in their pocket can put a unit (or two, locking in small profit) at minus-300 with Florida on the money line, with ample room to hedge again should the Huskies reach the title game.
<CENTER>[h=3]Jay Kornegay's top public teams[/h]</CENTER>
The Final Four teams, according to Jay Kornegay (lead bookmaker at the LVH) and his staff, ranked in order of public betting support at this point in the tournament.
1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Wisconsin
4. UConn
[h=1]2014 Final Four betting guide[/h][h=3]Best spread bets, total bets, coaches' ATS records, public teams and more[/h]By ESPN Insider Vegas contributors | ESPN Insider
Insider's group of Vegas experts, Dave Tuley, Ted Sevransky, Geoff Kulesa ("Wunderdog"), Sal Selvaggio, PJ Walsh and Jay Kornegay, is back to give you its thoughts on the best bets for this year's Final Four. Power ratings for all four teams, coaches' tourney records, whether to hedge your futures bet, most public Final Four teams and ATS picks for both games -- it's all here.
[h=3]Final Four Vegas Rankings[/h]
What a difference two weeks makes.
When we last updated the Vegas Rankings using the combined power ratings of our panel of handicappers -- Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Geoff Kulesa of wunderdog.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- in ESPN Insider's NCAA tournament betting guide, Florida was our No. 2 team behind Louisville with a power rating of 99.5, and it now tops the list at 100. OK, not too much of a change there. But when we look at the rest of the Final Four, we see that the other remaining teams have closed the gap.
Two weeks ago, we had Florida 10.5 points ahead of UConn, the team the Gators will face in the first national semifinal Saturday, but now it's rated only six points higher than the Huskies. Kentucky and Wisconsin also have closed the gap.
Let's take a look at each matchup compared to our current power ratings:<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2014 Final Four Vegas Rankings[/h]
| Vegas Rank | BPI Rank | Team | Previous | Power Rating | Title Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Florida | 99.5 | 100 | EVEN |
| 2 | 7 | Kentucky | 91 | 96 | 5-2 |
| 3 | 8 | Wisconsin | 91.5 | 95.5 | 7-2 |
| 4 | 21 | Connecticut | 89 | 94 | 8-1 |
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1-seed Florida versus 7-seed UConn: The oddsmakers and the betting market are pretty much in agreement with our number. The line opened as low as minus-5 at the MGM books in Las Vegas, with most books opening at Florida minus-6. Early money drove the line up to 6.5 and even 7 at some books, but the market then felt that was too high and corrected itself. As of early Thursday morning, the consensus line is 6.5. That looks like the right number, although I should point out that both Sevransky and Kulesa had Florida as a bigger favorite. (I have Florida as only four points better than UConn.)
<OFFER></OFFER>
8-seed Kentucky versus 2-seed Wisconsin: Two weeks ago, we had Wisconsin a half point better than Kentucky, but that has flipped, with the Wildcats half a point ahead of the Badgers. Most of the early betting has come in on Kentucky, so it looks as if there's the slightest bit of value on Wisconsin, but it's pretty much a coin flip any way you look at it.
[h=3]7-seed UConn Huskies versus 1-seed Florida Gators[/h]
Las Vegas Hotel line: Florida minus-6
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Connecticut
This has been an awesome tournament for me, as I have gone 17-2-1 ATS with posted best bets here on Insider (18-2 if you got plus-10.5 instead of plus-10 on Dayton versus Florida on Saturday). My last loss was on Gonzaga versus Arizona in the round of 32.PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Connecticut
I've written it twice the past fortnight, when going against Florida with Albany plus-22 and Dayton plus-10, and I'll say it again: Florida isn't a spread-covering machine, as it tends to play great defense and grind out wins. The Gators are a mediocre 18-15-1 ATS on the season and 2-2 ATS in the tournament. And now we get six points against them with UConn (the team that, in December, dealt Florida its last loss), which has been very good to us in the tournament.
UConn is playing even better than it was in December, with Shabazz Napier doing his best Kemba Walker impression from when UConn won the NCAA title three years ago. Napier has taken over games when needed, but he also has relied on a supporting cast that has really stepped up in the tournament with backcourt mate Ryan Boatright and dual inside-outside threat DeAndre Daniels often looking like the best player on the court. Florida has a lot of talent, too, and a lot of people will talk about the Gators being motivated by revenge, but I'd rather have the team that proved it could beat the other in the previous meeting, especially when we're getting points.
ATS pick: Connecticut* (asterisk denotes best bet)
-- Tuley
UConn has performed about eight points per game better in the NCAA tournament than it did in the regular season, based on point spreads and final scores. That's an enormous adjustment to make based on only four games, after a full season's worth of data. I'll give Kevin Ollie's squad credit for an impressive run and some downright nasty defense, but the Huskies' past three foes -- Villanova, Iowa State and Michigan State -- simply didn't bring their A-game against them.Florida is the best team in the country and the heavy favorite to cut down the nets Monday night. Billy Donovan has been to three previous Final Fours, reaching the championship game each time. All three national semifinal games in those runs resulted in double-digit wins and point-spread covers for the Gators.
I'm not looking to bet against the team I expect to win the title, even though the first meeting between these two teams came down to the last possession. The Gators in April aren't the same team that they were in early December, and I'm not convinced that the Huskies' 3-point shooting (11 of their 23 made baskets in the first meeting came from beyond the arc) will be as efficient in the rematch.
ATS pick: Florida
-- Sevransky
I've been high on Florida all tournament long and remain so here. The No. 1 overall seed has been dominant all season, having lost only two games by a total of seven points. The Gators remain hot at the right time, having gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.Donovan has his team playing great defense, allowing just 55 points per game in the tourney, and one of the intangibles it has over everyone else remaining is experience. You rarely see veteran teams in college basketball anymore, but Florida is one, with a trio of seniors leading the way in Casey Prather (13.8 PPG), Patric Young and Scottie Wilbekin. The Gators' stats have been dominant, too. They were fifth in the SEC in points scored and tops in field goal shooting as well as No. 1 in points allowed and third in field goal shooting defense (40 percent). Everyone is raving about Kentucky, as it is the hot team, but this Florida group rolled through the SEC tourney and has beaten Kentucky three times.
UConn did beat Florida early in the season, but Florida shot 49 percent, outrebounded the Huskies 34-26 and gets a chance at revenge here. UConn hit 11 of 24 3-pointers in that game, but chances are it won't shoot nearly as well in the rematch. The Gators are 11-3 ATS this season vs. elite teams like Connecticut (teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game). Lay the points on Florida to advance with a big win.
ATS pick: Florida
-- Kulesa
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2014 Final Four Sweat Barometer[/h]| Team | Conf | SU | ATS | Over/Under | Avg. Closing Line | Avg. Margin of Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | American | 30-8 | 21-15-0 | 12-18-1 | -5.13 | 2.96 |
| Florida | SEC | 36-2 | 17-12-5 | 10-18-0 | -8.82 | 2.76 |
| Wisconsin | Big 10 | 30-7 | 18-16-3 | 16-15-1 | -7.8 | 1.99 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 28-10 | 19-16-1 | 12-16-1 | -7.57 | -0.07 |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->I really like Ollie, and what he has done is impressive, but I think the fairy tale ends Saturday. I've been saying Florida is the best team in the country since January, and I haven't seen anything to change my mind. I made the line Florida minus-6.5 off my power ratings, so there isn't much value here. If I had to make a pick, I'd lean Florida.
ATS pick: Florida
-- Selvaggio
[h=3]8-seed Kentucky Wildcats versus 2-seed Wisconsin Badgers[/h]
LVH line: Kentucky minus-2
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Kentucky
I have a harder time making a case for the underdog in this matchup. Granted, Wisconsin has played great in the tournament, covering all four games, including beating a very talented Arizona team as a 3-point underdog. However, Kentucky has taken its game to a whole new level after underachieving a good portion of the season. With Julius Randle and the rest of the Wildcats big men pounding the boards and scoring via dunks and layups, plus Aaron Harrison hitting from 3-point land, they are hitting on all cylinders. Wisconsin should be able to stick around for a while, but, if I couldn't pull the trigger with Michigan against Kentucky, I can't see taking Wisconsin with this short a number.PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Kentucky
Even though the Badgers aren't the defensive juggernaut they've been in recent years, their best chance is to try to slow the pace and not get in a track meet with the Wildcats, so the best bet in this game might be the under.
ATS pick: Kentucky (lean to under 139.5)
-- Tuley
Kentucky has been extraordinary in tight, pressure-packed late-game situations against elite foes throughout this tournament. A run of late-game successes is very good for a team's confidence, but it's not any sort of a difference-maker when it comes to predicting similar success in the future. And I'm more inclined to support a team that hasn't played its best game yet against a team that has. Kentucky will be hard pressed to play any better than it has over the past two weeks, and its offense has been extraordinarily reliant on getting easy putbacks off offensive rebounds. I'm not sure that's going to work against Bo Ryan's crew, especially if injured center Willie Cauley-Stein is unable to suit up.Meanwhile, Wisconsin is here despite getting subpar efforts from every starter not named Frank Kaminsky in its upset of Arizona. The Badgers are the only team standing with wins over three No. 1 seeds this season, knocking off Florida and Virginia in nonconference play. The Big Ten was as tough as any conference in college hoops this season, so Bo Ryan's squad is certainly battle tested. I've picked the Badgers in each of my last two preview columns, and I'm not going to jump off that train here.
We're not going to see many fast-break points in this one, with both teams playing excellent transition defense throughout the tournament. Nor are we going to see many open perimeter looks for either squad; every shot is contested by these two defenses. Unless this game is an absolute foul fest, I'm expecting the winner to struggle to reach 70 points.
ATS pick: Wisconsin*
Over/under pick: Under 139.5
-- Sevransky
The Badgers are hot at the right time, having won 13 of their past 15 games, and aren't getting the respect they deserve. This team has great balance with 6-foot-8 sophomore Sam Dekker (12.4 PPG) and junior Kaminsky (14.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) up front, plus a veteran backcourt of senior guard Ben Brust (12.8 PPG) and junior Traevon Jackson (10.7 PPG). You take away one area of the Badgers' offense and they have plenty of punch elsewhere on which to fall back.This Kentucky team was good in SEC play offensively but not great in field goal shooting defense (sixth in the SEC) or scoring defense (seventh). Wisconsin has outstanding ball movement and unselfish play from being together so long, and Kentucky is the first team to start five freshmen in an Elite Eight win since Michigan in 1992. This is where I think its youth catches up with it.
Wisconsin is 16-4 straight-up in road and neutral-court games, and on a 10-1 ATS run in nonconference games. Play Wisconsin to advance to the final.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
-- Kulesa
I made Kentucky minus-2 according to my ratings, but John Calipari somehow just seems to get his kids playing above their rating when it matters and I feel like Wisconsin might be a bit overmatched in this one. My matchup analysis shows some edges for the Cats. I'm taking Kentucky giving the points.ATS pick: Kentucky
-- Selvaggio
<CENTER>[h=3]Best/worst coaches to bet on from PJ Walsh[/h]</CENTER>
Because the sample size of Final Four games is so small, we can't uncover many meaningful historical trends that we're comfortable betting this weekend. As a result, we'll be tracking other information, such as public betting percentages and line moves, throughout the week before deciding whether there's value in the Final Four.
With plenty of time between now and tipoff, we used our Bet Labs software to compile NCAA tournament ATS records for each of the coaches represented in this year's Final Four and have listed them below. Interestingly, each of these coaches has been profitable (in terms of units won) for NCAA tournament bettors, highlighted by Donovan's and Calipari's continued postseason overperformance dating back to 2005.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]NCAA tournament ATS records, since 2005[/h]
| Coach | Team | ATS Record | Units Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. | |||
| Billy Donovan | Florida | 20-9 | +10.15 units |
| John Calipari | Kentucky | 23-13 | +8.75 units |
| Kevin Ollie | Connecticut | 4-0 | +3.80 units |
| Bo Ryan | Wisconsin | 12-8 | +3.50 units |
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[h=3]Should you hedge a futures bet now?[/h]
I get the question a lot from people holding future tickets who are afraid they will lose and not get anything out of it. I usually tell them to do whatever makes them feel comfortable, but the best advice I give is to avoid putting themselves in this position in the first place.
In almost every case, instead of betting a future in a single-elimination tournament (or in a series of series), it's best to bet the money line on the first game (or first series) and parlay your winnings on each successive game (or series). The payoff is almost always higher in the long run, plus you give yourself the option to back out of the play if there's an injury or to pull out profits as you go.
For example, I ended up starting with $20 plays on Kentucky (40-1) and Baylor (100-1) and passed on Wichita State because it was a much higher-priced favorite in its opening game and was on a collision course with Kentucky in its second game, figuring I could start with the Shockers if they got past the Wildcats. My UK bet at minus-210 versus Kansas State brought back $29 and change, and I put that $29 on Wildcats plus-190 against Wichita State. That brought back $84, and I put that on plus-180 against Louisville to collect $235. It was tough to do, but I put it all on Kentucky minus-140 against Michigan and now have $402 (19-1 on my original investment). Now I'm faced with the decision to let it ride or dip into some of my profits. I think I'm going to pull out $40 and roll over the rest.
I used that same strategy with Baylor but didn't feel as confident with the Bears against Wisconsin, so I pulled out my original $20 bet and just bet the remaining $60 I had made on Baylor plus-165. Even though that lost, I didn't lose anything overall. I wouldn't have that option with a regular futures bet.
-- Tuley
At the start of the tournament, the future odds at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas looked like this: Florida 4-1, Wisconsin 20-1, Kentucky 40-1 and UConn 100-1. If you have one or more similar tickets in your pocket, the time has come to discuss hedging strategies.Florida isn't easy to hedge and still lock in a substantial profit because of the low 4-1 return on investment for its odds. That being said, if you have one unit on Florida, you can hedge with a half-unit money-line bet on UConn at plus-250, which leaves room for a full unit hedge bet on the underdog (also on the money line) in the national title game, where the Gators will be favored (if they make it) against either foe.
All three of the other potential champions are relatively easy to hedge, if you choose to lock in some profit at the expense of diminishing your return if that team wins.
If you have one unit on Kentucky, you can bet two units on the Wisconsin money line (plus-115) with plenty left in reserve to hedge if the Wildcats survive and advance to the title game.
If you have the Badgers at 20-1, you can cover the cost of your bet with a one-unit play on the Kentucky money line (minus-135) in the semifinal, or you can take the risk of a one- or two-point Kentucky victory and just bet the Wildcats minus-2 without laying that extra juice.
Those with UConn in their pocket can put a unit (or two, locking in small profit) at minus-300 with Florida on the money line, with ample room to hedge again should the Huskies reach the title game.
-- Sevransky
<CENTER>[h=3]Jay Kornegay's top public teams[/h]</CENTER>
The Final Four teams, according to Jay Kornegay (lead bookmaker at the LVH) and his staff, ranked in order of public betting support at this point in the tournament.
1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Wisconsin
4. UConn
