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What to watch on final day of 2023 MLB regular season
playMarlins celebrate after clinching playoff berth (0:30)
-
David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterOct 1, 2023, 07:00 AM ET
fire fashion, the Miami Marlins clinched a wild card when they beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Texas Rangers clinched with a win over the Seattle Mariners, the Blue Jays clinched when the Mariners lost, the Arizona Diamondbacks clinched with their game in progress when the Cincinnati Reds lost, and then the Houston Astros clinched when they beat the Diamondbacks.
Whew.
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So all 12 2023 MLB playoff teams are now set -- but there are still a couple of things to decide. Here's what to watch on Sunday in the playoff races and elsewhere.
Who will win the American League West?
The Rangers beat the Mariners 6-1 as they handed Luis Ca
stillo his shortest outing of the season; the Astros beat the Diamondbacks 1-0 behind Justin Verlander's five scoreless innings to clinch their seventh straight postseason berth. The Rangers, in the postseason for the first time since 2016, maintain a one-game lead over the Astros, but the Astros won the season series -- so if Houston wins and Texas loses, the Astros take the title and the No. 2 seed.
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Both teams will be all-in to try to avoid the unpredictability o
f a three-game series, so I doubt either team partied too late into Saturday night. Remember, just last season three of the four road teams won their wild-card series. Getting a few extra days of rest for your bullpen and lining up your rotation for the division series is a strong incentive for both squads today.
How will the seeding shake out in the American League?
The Rangers enter Sunday with 90 wins; the Astros and Blue Jays sit at 89. The AL West winner is determined first, so here are the scenarios:
MLB playoff tracker
Here's everything you need to know as the regular season winds down, from current playoff matchups to league races to the postseason schedule.
MLB playoff tracker »
1. All three teams finish with 90 wins. The Astros are division champs and the No. 2 seed. The Rangers won the season series over the Blue Jays (6 to 1) so they are the No. 5 seed and the Jays the No. 6 seed. This is arguably an advantage for Toronto, as the Jays would travel to Minnesota while the Rangers head to Tampa Bay.
2. The Rangers finish with 91 wins and the Astros and Blue Jays finish with 89. The Jays won the season series 4-3 over the Astros, so they would be the No. 5 seed and the Astros the No. 6 seed.
3. The Rangers and Astros finish with 90 wins and the Blue Jays with 89. The Astros are division champs, the Rangers are the fifth seed and the Jays the sixth seed.
Seattle's loss that clinched a playoff spot for Toronto was a huge gift for the Blue Jays. With a playoff spot up in the air, they would have been forced to start ace Kevin Gausman (remember, all games on Sunday start at the same time), which meant he wouldn't have been ready to start in the wild-card series. Now he won't have to pitch and can get ready for Tuesday.
What about the National League wild-card seeding?
look when the playoffs begin.
The Texas Rangers, like the Rays, led the division for more than 100 days this season but enter the final day with the Houston Astros right behind them. The Minnesota Twins will be the AL Central's sole representative in October.
As for when these teams get to the playoffs? Here's their chances for every round:
The wild-card race is where it came down to the final days, after the Phillies claimed the first wild-card spot and the Miami Marlins joined them in the field with the Diamondbacks following.
As for when these teams get to the playoffs? Here's their chances for every round:
Best of three, all games at better seed's stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 3
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 4
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 5*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 8
Game 3: Tuesday Oct. 10
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 11*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 13*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 9
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 11
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 12*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 14*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 15
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 16
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 18
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 19
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 20*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 22*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 23*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 16
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 17
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 19
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 20
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 21*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 23*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 24*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 27
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 28
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 30
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 31
Game 5: Wednesday, Nov. 1*
Game 6: Friday, Nov. 3*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 4*
* If necessary
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Marlins celebrate after clinching playoff berth (0:30)
PITTSBURGH -- The Miami Marlins' improbable September push will carry into October.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit his 19th home run, Josh Bell delivered a late two-run double and the Marlins clinched the fourth playoff berth in franchise history with a 7-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday night.
Miami locked down one of the two remaining National League wild-card spots behind Chisholm's drive, a dash of small ball and another lockdown performance by a bullpen that has carried a sizable share of the load over the past month.
A.J. Puk (7-5) and seven other relievers kept the Pirates in check, rendering any scoreboard-watching pointless.
"I feel like we're just the biggest family in the league," Chisholm said in a giddy postgame clubhouse. "I feel like nobody is as connected as us as a team. I feel like when someone gets going, everybody gets going. That's the plan here and we're just family and we're coming in together."
Miami began the day with its magic number whittled to one following another late comeback victory on Friday night.
One officially dropped to zero when closer Tanner Scott wrapped up his 12th save by striking out the side in the ninth, setting off a celebration on the field and behind the Miami dugout, where a small clutch of fans chanted "Let's go Marlins!"
Buoyed by first-year manager Skip Schumaker's relentless optimism and a "why not us" approach, the largely anonymous Marlins -- who finished with 93 or more losses in each of the previous four non-pandemic-shortened seasons -- will be in the playoffs next week while big spenders like the New York Mets and San Diego Padres will be watching from home.
"We've been living for six years with 'Let's go Mets' in our stadium all the time," Marlins owner Bruce Sherman said. "Mets didn't finish. Yankees didn't finish. San Diego didn't finish. Payrolls three times ours and look what we did."
What the Mets and everyone else will see is a team that keeps finding a way despite a roster bereft of stars outside of the electrifying Chisholm, who was 5 years old growing up in the Bahamas in 2003 the last time the Marlins made the playoffs at the end of a 162-game regular season.
Little was expected in 2023, yet the Marlins entered September at 67-67 and on the fringe of an underwhelming wild-card race before hitting the gas over the last four weeks.
Miami used a 17-9 September surge to vault over San Francisco, Chicago and surprising Cincinnati in the standings.
Jon Berti had three hits for the Marlins and started the go-ahead rally with a leadoff walk in the sixth off Quinn Priester (3-3), beginning a sequence that symbolized Miami's "whatever it takes" approach.
Garrett Hampson bunted for a hit when Nick Gonzalez was late covering the bag at first. Both runners advanced on a sacrifice by Jacob Stallings and Berti put the Marlins in front 3-2 by beating shortstop Liover Pegeuro's throw home on a sharp grounder by Jorge Soler. Bell's sacrifice fly pushed the advantage to 4-2.
Bell -- who spent five years with the Pirates from 2016 to 2020 before bouncing from Washington to San Diego to Cleveland to Miami -- provided the Marlins with some welcome insurance in the eighth with a long drive to center that drove in Berti and Soler.
"Thought I'd celebrate here years and years ago," Bell said. "But just to be able to celebrate here now is icing on the cake."
A night after rallying from three runs down after the seventh inning for the sixth time this season -- the most by any MLB team since 1900 -- the Marlins made sure no such dramatics were required.
"This team has just exemplified heart and they know it," said general manager Kim Ng, the first female GM in Major League Baseball history. "And I think that is the driver of this group."
Endy Rodriguez had three hits and drove in a run for the Pirates. Jared Triolo and Ke'Bryan Hayes added two hits each. Bryan Reynolds provided an RBI single in the bottom of the eighth that trimmed Miami's lead to three, but the Pirates would get no closer.
Priester, a first-round pick in the 2019 amateur draft, put together 5 1/3 workmanlike innings as he tries to position himself for a spot in the starting rotation in 2024. Priester allowed four runs on 10 hits with a walk and three strikeouts to finish his rookie season with a 7.74 ERA in 10 games (seven starts).
Copyright: © ESPN Enterprises
Breaking down the AL race
Despite spending much of the season atop the AL East, the Rays find themselves the top wild-card team in the American League after the Orioles took sole possession of first place in the division in late July. The Toronto Blue Jays joined them by securing a wild-card spot.The Texas Rangers, like the Rays, led the division for more than 100 days this season but enter the final day with the Houston Astros right behind them. The Minnesota Twins will be the AL Central's sole representative in October.
As for when these teams get to the playoffs? Here's their chances for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
We won't have any final day divisional drama in the NL -- the NL East and West were both locked up early, and the Milwaukee Brewers have long held first place in the NL Central, too.The wild-card race is where it came down to the final days, after the Phillies claimed the first wild-card spot and the Miami Marlins joined them in the field with the Diamondbacks following.
As for when these teams get to the playoffs? Here's their chances for every round:
Game of the day
Need something to watch today? Here's the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card seriesBest of three, all games at better seed's stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 3
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 4
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 5*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 8
Game 3: Tuesday Oct. 10
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 11*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 13*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 9
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 11
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 12*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 14*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 15
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 16
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 18
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 19
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 20*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 22*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 23*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 16
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 17
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 19
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 20
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 21*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 23*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 24*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 27
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 28
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 30
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 31
Game 5: Wednesday, Nov. 1*
Game 6: Friday, Nov. 3*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 4*
* If necessary
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Miami Marlins clinch 4th playoff berth in franchise history
playMarlins celebrate after clinching playoff berth (0:30)
- Associated Press
PITTSBURGH -- The Miami Marlins' improbable September push will carry into October.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit his 19th home run, Josh Bell delivered a late two-run double and the Marlins clinched the fourth playoff berth in franchise history with a 7-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday night.
Miami locked down one of the two remaining National League wild-card spots behind Chisholm's drive, a dash of small ball and another lockdown performance by a bullpen that has carried a sizable share of the load over the past month.
A.J. Puk (7-5) and seven other relievers kept the Pirates in check, rendering any scoreboard-watching pointless.
"I feel like we're just the biggest family in the league," Chisholm said in a giddy postgame clubhouse. "I feel like nobody is as connected as us as a team. I feel like when someone gets going, everybody gets going. That's the plan here and we're just family and we're coming in together."
Miami began the day with its magic number whittled to one following another late comeback victory on Friday night.
One officially dropped to zero when closer Tanner Scott wrapped up his 12th save by striking out the side in the ninth, setting off a celebration on the field and behind the Miami dugout, where a small clutch of fans chanted "Let's go Marlins!"
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Buoyed by first-year manager Skip Schumaker's relentless optimism and a "why not us" approach, the largely anonymous Marlins -- who finished with 93 or more losses in each of the previous four non-pandemic-shortened seasons -- will be in the playoffs next week while big spenders like the New York Mets and San Diego Padres will be watching from home.
"We've been living for six years with 'Let's go Mets' in our stadium all the time," Marlins owner Bruce Sherman said. "Mets didn't finish. Yankees didn't finish. San Diego didn't finish. Payrolls three times ours and look what we did."
What the Mets and everyone else will see is a team that keeps finding a way despite a roster bereft of stars outside of the electrifying Chisholm, who was 5 years old growing up in the Bahamas in 2003 the last time the Marlins made the playoffs at the end of a 162-game regular season.
Little was expected in 2023, yet the Marlins entered September at 67-67 and on the fringe of an underwhelming wild-card race before hitting the gas over the last four weeks.
Miami used a 17-9 September surge to vault over San Francisco, Chicago and surprising Cincinnati in the standings.
Jon Berti had three hits for the Marlins and started the go-ahead rally with a leadoff walk in the sixth off Quinn Priester (3-3), beginning a sequence that symbolized Miami's "whatever it takes" approach.
Garrett Hampson bunted for a hit when Nick Gonzalez was late covering the bag at first. Both runners advanced on a sacrifice by Jacob Stallings and Berti put the Marlins in front 3-2 by beating shortstop Liover Pegeuro's throw home on a sharp grounder by Jorge Soler. Bell's sacrifice fly pushed the advantage to 4-2.
Bell -- who spent five years with the Pirates from 2016 to 2020 before bouncing from Washington to San Diego to Cleveland to Miami -- provided the Marlins with some welcome insurance in the eighth with a long drive to center that drove in Berti and Soler.
"Thought I'd celebrate here years and years ago," Bell said. "But just to be able to celebrate here now is icing on the cake."
A night after rallying from three runs down after the seventh inning for the sixth time this season -- the most by any MLB team since 1900 -- the Marlins made sure no such dramatics were required.
"This team has just exemplified heart and they know it," said general manager Kim Ng, the first female GM in Major League Baseball history. "And I think that is the driver of this group."
Endy Rodriguez had three hits and drove in a run for the Pirates. Jared Triolo and Ke'Bryan Hayes added two hits each. Bryan Reynolds provided an RBI single in the bottom of the eighth that trimmed Miami's lead to three, but the Pirates would get no closer.
Priester, a first-round pick in the 2019 amateur draft, put together 5 1/3 workmanlike innings as he tries to position himself for a spot in the starting rotation in 2024. Priester allowed four runs on 10 hits with a walk and three strikeouts to finish his rookie season with a 7.74 ERA in 10 games (seven starts).
Copyright: © ESPN Enterprises
| |||||||
| 03:05 PM | 65001 | Atlanta Braves | +300 | ||||
| 65014 | Los Angeles Dodgers | +450 | |||||
| 65002 | Baltimore Orioles | +550 | |||||
| 65027 | Texas Rangers | +650 | |||||
| 65011 | Houston Astros | +900 | |||||
| 6502 | Tampa Bay Rays | +1000 | |||||
| 65020 | Philadelphia Phillies | +1200 | |||||
| 65028 | Toronto Blue Jays | +1600 | |||||
| 65016 | Minnesota Twins | +1800 | |||||
| 65015 | Milwaukee Brewers | +2000 | |||||
| 65000 | Arizona Diamondbacks | +3300 | |||||
| 65010 | Miami Marlins | +3500 | |||||
| Sunday, Oct 01, 2023 | |||||||
| |||||||
| 03:05 PM | 20000 | Baltimore Orioles | +250 | ||||
| 20013 | Texas Rangers | +300 | |||||
| 20005 | Houston Astros | +400 | |||||
| 20012 | Tampa Bay Rays | +550 | |||||
| 20014 | Toronto Blue Jays | +800 | |||||
| 20008 | Minnesota Twins | +900 | |||||
| |||||||
| 03:05 PM | 20016 | Atlanta Braves | +125 | ||||
| 20020 | Los Angeles Dodgers | +225 | |||||
| 20024 | Philadelphia Phillies | +600 | |||||
| 20022 | Milwaukee Brewers | +950 | |||||
| 20015 | Arizona Diamondbacks | +1600 | |||||
| 20021 | Miami Marlins | +1800 |
Give me Texas +650
Seattle is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention ahead of the final game of the season
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“Bless you to both of you guys, what an amazing career.” A message from
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When you put on the Olde English D, the spirit of Detroit is always close to your heart. For being our ambassador as the world was watching. #GraciasMiggy
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NEW YORK GIANTS quarterback Daniel Jones lined up his putt while running back Saquon Barkley stood nearby.
They were on the 14th hole at Mountain Ridge Country Club in West Caldwell, New Jersey, and Barkley's patented chirping was only getting louder.
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The two close friends and Giants teammates were on opposing teams in this match, and Barkley's tandem was 4 up with five left to play. This was a chance to close it out.
That is until Jones' tee shot landed 40 feet from the cup on the par-3, and he coolly sank the uphill birdie putt to lead his team to victory on the hole, and ultimately the match.
Jones barely even blinked after the putt.
"I'm a good money putter," Jones told ESPN with a chuckle recently when asked how he handles pressure.
He entered Week 4 22nd in QBR while the Giants sat at 1-2 with the fewest points scored (43) in the NFC. Jones and the New York offense could hardly operate against the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, and played one good half against the Arizona Cardinals.
The money only makes
the favored Atlanta Braves roll through the National League, or will one of the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers or Milwaukee Brewers be the NL's last team standing? Can the Baltimore Orioles turn a 100-plus-win season into a World Series berth, or will we see a deep run from the Texas Rangers or defending champion Houston Astros?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team's last game and a name to watch for all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle's formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Baltimore Orioles
No. 1 seed | 101-61 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Rangers or Rays (49.0% chance of reaching ALCS)
World Series odds: 11.5% | Caesars odds: +650
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 23
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Now that All-Star closer Felix Bautista is officially done for the season and will undergo Tommy John surgery, the pressure ramps up on a Baltimore bullpen that was so dominant with the late-game duo of Yennier Cano and Bautista. Cano has been a little more hittable in the second half, especially in the final month. The Orioles are deep in left-handed relievers with Cionel Perez, Danny Coulombe and rookie DL Hall, but they're scrambling a bit from the right side aside from Cano. Tyler Wells, a starter until he was sent down to the minors in late July, is back as a reliever and could get some high-leverage moments. -- Schoenfield
Two years removed from a 110-loss season, Baltimore punched its ticket to October -- and has much bigger things in its future.
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Ready for his October close-up: Last year, when the Orioles rose from 110 losses to the edge of contention within the sport's
Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. OK, who am I kidding? You're not rooting for the Astros unless you live in Houston. -- Schoenfield
Knowing what we know now, which teams should have done more, less -- or exactly the same?
Judging all 30 clubs one month later »
What they do that could take down the Braves: Remember '21. If we end up with a pairing of the last two champions in the Fall Classic, it will baseball player on the planet (non-Shohei Ohtani division). And his prowess from the leadoff spot is the biggest reason this Braves lineup has become historic. When the games matter most, Acuna can impact them with his majestic power and blazing speed and rocket arm, and he's sure to do plenty of that in October. -- Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Murderer's Row Yankees of Ruth and Gehrig. The Brooklyn Dodgers of the 1950s. The Big Red Machine. The "Idiot" Red Sox of 2004. With a World Series title, the Braves have a chance to cement their place in history as one of the most fearsome with a third straight 100-win season (a stretch that almost certainly would have been five in a row if the entire 2020 season had been played). And yet, their only World Series title during this dynastic run carries an asterisk because it came that shortened campaign with playoff games at neutral sites and the whole weirdness of that season. So, yes, there is part of me that would like the Dodgers to win a World Series in a real season, with fans in the stands, with Mookie hitting home runs, Freddie hitting doubles and maybe even Kershaw dialing up Father Time and having his best October ever. -- Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: While the Braves might be scrambling to fill out an injury-riddled rotation, the Dodgers have been doing that all along. So there doesn't appear to be an advantage for Atlanta in starting pitching and the Dodgers' bullpen is deeper and better. If that translates to lower-scoring games than the Braves prefer, the chances of one or two performances tipping the series rise. And for all of Ronald Acuna Jr.'s spectacular play and Matt Olson's home runs, would anyone be surprised if Freeman and Betts were enough all on their own to propel the Dodgers past the Braves? Their combined brilliance this season has been breathtaking and the postseason context for both of them is by now old hat. -- Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
No. 3 seed | 92-70 | NL Central champs
NLDS opponent: D-backs (61.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.7% | Caesars odds: +1800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 14
The one thing that will decide their October fate: The Brewers must get leads to the bullpen, which ranks first in the majors in win probability added (by a large margin). That's basically a proxy for "clutch" when it comes to reliever performance and that's what the pen has been all season in leading the Brewers to an excellent record in both one-run and extra-inning games. Closer Devin Williams throws his changeup more than 50% of the time and it's so good it has a nickname: The Airbender. Batters are hitting .098 against it. Joel Payamps has been the key setup guy while Hoby Milner and Bryse Wilson have been excellent as well -- and keep an eye on flame-throwing rookie Abner Uribe, who didn't come up until July but has pitched himself into a high-leverage role. --Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: William Contreras never got much of a chance on star-studded Braves teams over these past few years, seeing a combined 10 postseason plate appearances in 2021 and 2022. Then the Brewers acquired him as part of the three-team trade that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta in December 2022, and now Contreras -- Willson's younger brother -- stands at the center of a Brewers offense that needs more punch to back up its dynamic pitching staff. Contreras, Christian Yelich and the recently acquired Mark Canha are the only Brewers regulars with an struggled with the long ball. Pfaadt has more swing-and-miss stuff, so he's probably the No. 3 starter, but Arizona will have to find a way to win some non-Gallen/Kelly games. -- Schoenfield
Jesse Rogers »
Passan: Inside Carroll's rise to stardom »
Ready for his October closeup: You'd be hard-pressed to find a more electric player than Corbin Carroll, a dynamic defender and an elite hitter who also plays with his hair on fire. Carroll became the first player ever to combine 50-plus steals with 25-plus home runs and 10-plus triples in the same season. He did that as a rookie. David Cone recently said Carroll reminds him of Derek Jeter in his rookie season, largely because of their leadership qualities at a young age. One big difference: Jeter played for one of the world's most decorated franchises. Carroll, not so much. But that's what makes the playoffs so cool -- the world is about to find out just how good and fun Carroll really is. -- Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: We mentioned the Orioles turning it around from 110 losses two seasons ago. Well, the Diamondbacks matched them that year with 110 defeats, so getting to the playoffs just two years later is a great achievement for a young, building team. Carroll is certainly the star attraction but he's not alone: rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno is going to be another cornerstone player with his defense -- check out his arm -- and improving bat. In this day of rocket-armed pitchers, Gallen and Kelly are two starters who rely on movement, location and pitch selection more than pure velocity. The art of pitching is alive and well with those two. -- Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Run, run, run. Despite the uptick in stolen bases this season, this still isn't baseball, circa 1985. To run on offense, the hitters have to get on base and get the ball in play. If that happens, the Diamondback rolled up 161 stolen bases and did so with a MLB-best 87% success rate. They can drive Sean Murphy and his pitchers crazy. But that's not the only kind of running we're talking about. Arizona's athleticism also paid off on defense as Torey Lovullo's fielders as a unit was arguably the best in the majors. Like Toronto, if Arizona's pitchers can keep the Braves' power bats in the ballpark (easier said than done), Carroll & Co. can impact games by running down balls in the gap -- Doolittle
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Baseball is egalitarian enough that
They were on the 14th hole at Mountain Ridge Country Club in West Caldwell, New Jersey, and Barkley's patented chirping was only getting louder.
ADVERTISEMENT
The two close friends and Giants teammates were on opposing teams in this match, and Barkley's tandem was 4 up with five left to play. This was a chance to close it out.
That is until Jones' tee shot landed 40 feet from the cup on the par-3, and he coolly sank the uphill birdie putt to lead his team to victory on the hole, and ultimately the match.
Jones barely even blinked after the putt.
"I'm a good money putter," Jones told ESPN with a chuckle recently when asked how he handles pressure.
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He entered Week 4 22nd in QBR while the Giants sat at 1-2 with the fewest points scored (43) in the NFC. Jones and the New York offense could hardly operate against the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, and played one good half against the Arizona Cardinals.
The money only makes
the favored Atlanta Braves roll through the National League, or will one of the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers or Milwaukee Brewers be the NL's last team standing? Can the Baltimore Orioles turn a 100-plus-win season into a World Series berth, or will we see a deep run from the Texas Rangers or defending champion Houston Astros?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team's last game and a name to watch for all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle's formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
American League
Baltimore Orioles
No. 1 seed | 101-61 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Rangers or Rays (49.0% chance of reaching ALCS)
World Series odds: 11.5% | Caesars odds: +650
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 23
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Now that All-Star closer Felix Bautista is officially done for the season and will undergo Tommy John surgery, the pressure ramps up on a Baltimore bullpen that was so dominant with the late-game duo of Yennier Cano and Bautista. Cano has been a little more hittable in the second half, especially in the final month. The Orioles are deep in left-handed relievers with Cionel Perez, Danny Coulombe and rookie DL Hall, but they're scrambling a bit from the right side aside from Cano. Tyler Wells, a starter until he was sent down to the minors in late July, is back as a reliever and could get some high-leverage moments. -- Schoenfield
Two years removed from a 110-loss season, Baltimore punched its ticket to October -- and has much bigger things in its future.
David Schoenfield »
Kurkjian: From raw to really, really good »
Passan: The Homer Hose and more »
Ready for his October close-up: Last year, when the Orioles rose from 110 losses to the edge of contention within the sport's
Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. OK, who am I kidding? You're not rooting for the Astros unless you live in Houston. -- Schoenfield
MLB trade deadline in hindsight
Knowing what we know now, which teams should have done more, less -- or exactly the same?
What they do that could take down the Braves: Remember '21. If we end up with a pairing of the last two champions in the Fall Classic, it will baseball player on the planet (non-Shohei Ohtani division). And his prowess from the leadoff spot is the biggest reason this Braves lineup has become historic. When the games matter most, Acuna can impact them with his majestic power and blazing speed and rocket arm, and he's sure to do plenty of that in October. -- Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Murderer's Row Yankees of Ruth and Gehrig. The Brooklyn Dodgers of the 1950s. The Big Red Machine. The "Idiot" Red Sox of 2004. With a World Series title, the Braves have a chance to cement their place in history as one of the most fearsome with a third straight 100-win season (a stretch that almost certainly would have been five in a row if the entire 2020 season had been played). And yet, their only World Series title during this dynastic run carries an asterisk because it came that shortened campaign with playoff games at neutral sites and the whole weirdness of that season. So, yes, there is part of me that would like the Dodgers to win a World Series in a real season, with fans in the stands, with Mookie hitting home runs, Freddie hitting doubles and maybe even Kershaw dialing up Father Time and having his best October ever. -- Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: While the Braves might be scrambling to fill out an injury-riddled rotation, the Dodgers have been doing that all along. So there doesn't appear to be an advantage for Atlanta in starting pitching and the Dodgers' bullpen is deeper and better. If that translates to lower-scoring games than the Braves prefer, the chances of one or two performances tipping the series rise. And for all of Ronald Acuna Jr.'s spectacular play and Matt Olson's home runs, would anyone be surprised if Freeman and Betts were enough all on their own to propel the Dodgers past the Braves? Their combined brilliance this season has been breathtaking and the postseason context for both of them is by now old hat. -- Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
No. 3 seed | 92-70 | NL Central champs
NLDS opponent: D-backs (61.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.7% | Caesars odds: +1800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 14
The one thing that will decide their October fate: The Brewers must get leads to the bullpen, which ranks first in the majors in win probability added (by a large margin). That's basically a proxy for "clutch" when it comes to reliever performance and that's what the pen has been all season in leading the Brewers to an excellent record in both one-run and extra-inning games. Closer Devin Williams throws his changeup more than 50% of the time and it's so good it has a nickname: The Airbender. Batters are hitting .098 against it. Joel Payamps has been the key setup guy while Hoby Milner and Bryse Wilson have been excellent as well -- and keep an eye on flame-throwing rookie Abner Uribe, who didn't come up until July but has pitched himself into a high-leverage role. --Schoenfield
MLB Playoff Pressure Rankings
Which World Series contenders must win now -- or else?Bradford Doolittle »Ready for his October closeup: William Contreras never got much of a chance on star-studded Braves teams over these past few years, seeing a combined 10 postseason plate appearances in 2021 and 2022. Then the Brewers acquired him as part of the three-team trade that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta in December 2022, and now Contreras -- Willson's younger brother -- stands at the center of a Brewers offense that needs more punch to back up its dynamic pitching staff. Contreras, Christian Yelich and the recently acquired Mark Canha are the only Brewers regulars with an struggled with the long ball. Pfaadt has more swing-and-miss stuff, so he's probably the No. 3 starter, but Arizona will have to find a way to win some non-Gallen/Kelly games. -- Schoenfield
How the D-backs learned to contend
With the help of some emerging veteran leadership, Arizona doubled down on its youth carrying the load.Jesse Rogers »
Passan: Inside Carroll's rise to stardom »
Ready for his October closeup: You'd be hard-pressed to find a more electric player than Corbin Carroll, a dynamic defender and an elite hitter who also plays with his hair on fire. Carroll became the first player ever to combine 50-plus steals with 25-plus home runs and 10-plus triples in the same season. He did that as a rookie. David Cone recently said Carroll reminds him of Derek Jeter in his rookie season, largely because of their leadership qualities at a young age. One big difference: Jeter played for one of the world's most decorated franchises. Carroll, not so much. But that's what makes the playoffs so cool -- the world is about to find out just how good and fun Carroll really is. -- Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: We mentioned the Orioles turning it around from 110 losses two seasons ago. Well, the Diamondbacks matched them that year with 110 defeats, so getting to the playoffs just two years later is a great achievement for a young, building team. Carroll is certainly the star attraction but he's not alone: rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno is going to be another cornerstone player with his defense -- check out his arm -- and improving bat. In this day of rocket-armed pitchers, Gallen and Kelly are two starters who rely on movement, location and pitch selection more than pure velocity. The art of pitching is alive and well with those two. -- Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Run, run, run. Despite the uptick in stolen bases this season, this still isn't baseball, circa 1985. To run on offense, the hitters have to get on base and get the ball in play. If that happens, the Diamondback rolled up 161 stolen bases and did so with a MLB-best 87% success rate. They can drive Sean Murphy and his pitchers crazy. But that's not the only kind of running we're talking about. Arizona's athleticism also paid off on defense as Torey Lovullo's fielders as a unit was arguably the best in the majors. Like Toronto, if Arizona's pitchers can keep the Braves' power bats in the ballpark (easier said than done), Carroll & Co. can impact games by running down balls in the gap -- Doolittle
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MLB playoffs 2023: Passan's team breakdowns, World Series pick
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Jeff Passan, ESPNOct 1, 2023, 08:30 PM ET
Baseball is egalitarian enough that
Some good info
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