Aloha Gang. Well, this is it. The final game of this CBB season. I wasn't planning on playing any more games after last Sunday's Elite 8 was concluded, but since a lot of people were emailing me to ask for my opinion on this game, I decided to cap it out and provide you ALL with my selection and writeup backing my play...This game was going to be just an opinion play for me. But due to how each team has played in their previous Tournament games, I saw several matchups, situations, and advantages setting itself up perfectly, which falls in to most of my BIG PLAY catergories....Today's selection is thus a BIG PLAY for me that should provide us with a solid WIN. My current Big Plays that I have released this year have a combined record of: 14W-2L-1P= 88%. So, for the last time this season, LET'S ROCK-N-ROLL BIG TIME BABY!
**BIG FINAL CBB PLAY ON:
UCONN -5 (BIG WINNER....YEAH BOOEY!)
-It seems that many people are on GT primarily because they feel that this is too many points to be giving in a National Championship Game, and hardly anything else. Well, I wish handicapping for me was as simple as that. But I rather break it All down and compare matchups, look for situations, and those advantages, etc, which gives me confidence in the team I select should win both SU and ATS. After I completed this process, I found that the overwhelming BEST side to back is with the HUSKIES. Due to time constraints and lack of rest, below are most of the Major advantages that were in favor of the Huskies today...
First off, lets get this one out of the way. On Nov 26, this GT team upset this Uconn team in the pre-season NIT semi-final game 77-61 as an 8 pt dog...I say that win carries no weight which could indicate another win by GT today...Here are the reasons why that game is meaningless to me...1.That game was way back on Nov 26, 2003. A whole season went by and Uconn is a better, more mature and dominant team.... 2. Uconn had a bad night on a neutral court, shooting just under 38% from the field, and scoring just 61 pts. Since then, Uconn, on neutral courts, over the entire course of the season has gone 7-3 ATS, averaged scoring 76.2 ppg, to GT's averaging just 68 pts. Uconn, also holds an advantage over GT in all games played on neutral courts in FG%, 3 pt FG%, and Rebs pg. GT only holds an advantage over Uconn in FT% in all neutral court games...3. Uconn in that game missed 20 FTs, going 10-30 (33%). I seriously don't see that happening again today...4. Uconn went 1-10(10%) from behind the ARC. On the year, Uconn shooting 40.5% from 3 pt land...5. Okafor only had 9 pts and went 2-10 from the field, and also played sparringly due to a back injury. Okafor doesn't seem to be injured anymore, and averages on the year in DDs in pt scored and rpg...6. Uconn's backup Big Men, Villanueva and Boone, were young snot nose Freshmen at that time. They both are season veterans now. Plus, Villanueva did not play in that game due to ineligibility. He is eligible for this one...7. GT in that game on a neutral court shot 40% from 3 pt land, 73% from the line, and grabbed 47 rebs. Since then in all games on a neutral court, this output dropped to these averages, 34% from 3 pt land, 69.4% from the line, and 33 rpg...This is a different time and they both are different teams.
Big Front Court Matchup: Uconn's Okafor vs GT's Luke "Carrot Top" Schencher. Are you kidding me or what...NO CONTEST. Okafor, a unaminous choice for All American Center, and runner up for Player of the Year. Carrot Top, average performer overall. Okafer averages 18.1 ppg, 4.3 bpg, 11.7 rpg, and 60% FG. Carrot Top averages 8.8 ppg, 1.5 bpg, 6.4 rpg, and 55% FG. Okafor also ranked #1 in Block Shots in the Nation, and #2 in Rebounding in the Nation. Carrot Top unknown.
-If Okafor gets into foul trouble and needs to sit, he has capable replacements in Boone who scored in Okafor's absence against Duke 9 pts, 14 rebs, and 1 blk shot. Also, Villanueva, who due to Okafor's foul trouble had 8 pts, 6 rebs, and 2 blk shots, against Duke. If Carrot Top has to sit due to foul trouble, GT is done. But they will try to get help from two reserves who both play under 10 mins per game. Won't help to do anything except send Okafor to the line alot.
Other Front Court Matchups: GT's Muhammad and Moore vs Uconn's Villanueva and Boone. Uconn's Villanueva and Boone are #2 and #3 in rpg on the team behind Okafor. They both have an advantage in size at 6' 10", to GT's Muhammad who is 6'6 and Moore at 6'5". Villanueva and Boone simply are better shooters, boarders, and players.
Major Back Court Matchups: Uconn's Gordon and Brown vs GT's Elder and Jack. Between Gordon and Jack, both are comparable in FG%, and FT%. But Gordon does average more ppg at 17.9 to Jacks average of 12.4 ppg. Gordon also is a better shooter from downtown at 44% from behind the ARC, compared to Jacks shooting only 33% from behing the ARC. Due to Elder's injury leaving him less than 100%, this matchup evens out as Elder no longer can be relied upon to be the team's leading scorer. Uconn's Brown who has been struggling to score, does provide a lot in way of his ability to run the offense. In fact, he is one of only two Pt guards to lead a Uconn team to the National Title game. The other being Khalid El-Arman. Also, Brown is Uconn's All Time assist leader and is ranked #3 in the nation in assist. Never under estimate the importance of a very good ASSIST man, because he doesn't put up big numbers. Just remember, there would of been no Karl Malone without a John Stockton, Believe That!
Other Back Court Matchups: Uconn's Anderson vs GT's Lewis. Between these two, the numbers are very similar. Both are coming up Big for each team. Advantage here comes from who ever is in the zone.
Uconn vs GT Team Matchup: Uconn will have the definite advantage in size as Uconn has 4 Guys who are 6'10" or bigger. GT's only real big Guy is Carrot Top at 7'1". There other two big guys are 6'9" and 6'8", but they play less than 10 mins per game. Uconn will have a advantage in the paint and on the boards, due to the size and strength of the guys down low. Uconn outboards GT by about 7 more rebounds per a game. Uconn can survive if Okafor gets in foul trouble due to Villanueva and Boone, but if GT's Schenscher gets in foul trouble, it will be over for them. In fact, in their first meeting back on Nov 26, Schenscher foul out and only had 2pts in 21 mins of play.
GT's hot back court shooting may keep them in this game if Okafor is to dominant over Schenscher, but they lack any consistency in who will be the guy to step up or get hot. Uconn's Offense is a lot more balanced because of the dominant play of Okafor inside and the consistant Gordon outside. GT's Luke Schenscher has been surging and picking up his game the past two, but repeating those game high performances against the best big man in the land in Okafor will not be any simple task at all for the 7'1" Freshman from Australia.
Uconn is a team that is on a roll, beating each of its 4 Tournament Opponents by an average of 17 ppg. GT though also taking care of some notable opponents, haven't been as dominant and those wins weren't easy by any means. In fact, their wins in their last 5 games were by 5 pts, 3 pts, 5 pts, 8 pts, and 2 pts.
GT, in the ACC Tournament, got blownout by Duke and that loss on a neutral court, tells me a lot, as I compare Uconn's narrow victory over Duke. I feel, that even though Uconn only beat Duke by 1 pt, the score in that game was definately no true reflection of what could of happened and what should have happened to Duke, as well as what did happen to Duke by this Uconn team. The fact that Uconn was able to dominate Duke in the early part of the 1st half, even though Okafor only played 3:55, and scored no pts, but yet Uconn was able to easily get a DD lead on the Blue Devils tells me a lot about how this Husky team is jelling into a dominant force that no one will be able to stop at this time. Okafor is the KEY for them though to be able to dominate GT from start to finish.
In fact, in the Duke game, when Okafor had to sit after only playing for 3 mins and 55 seconds, Duke was able to get back that DD deficit and then get up on them by DD's. But, in the 2nd half and upon Okafor's return to the game, Duke was totally mismatched on all facets due to Okafor's presence. Here are some of the things that happened in the 2nd half of that game. Okafor scored all his 18 pts in the second half, while also grabbing 7 rebounds in the second half. Luol Deng who scored 12 pts in the 1st half when Okafor was on the bench, scored ONLY 4 pts in the 2nd half with Okafor in the game. Three of Duke's Big Men all fouled out, while Okafor only picked up one foul for the entire 2nd half. Duke took 15 fewer shots in the 2nd half, as compared to the first half with no Okafor. Uconn who had 18 turnovers in the 1st half, only turned the bal over 6 times in the 2nd half with Okafor playing the entire half. Okafor's return in the 2nd half resulted in these final numbers favoring Uconn, Uconn shoots 50% from the field compared to Duke shooting 40%. Uconn grabbed a total of 43 rebounds compared to Dukes grabbing 36. Uconn held Duke to just 27% from 3pt land, while Uconn shot 50% from 3pt land. And lastly, Uconn with Okafor in the game in the 2nd half comesback to overcome a double digit lead by Duke and wins SU.
Some past Tournament stats which favor Uconn today. Favs of 4-6 pts are 12-5 SU and ATS from the Final Four games till the Championship game. Also based on Conf teams in the Final Four games and beyond, Big East teams have gone 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS.
In conclusion, based on the player matchups in this game, the recent performances of both teams, the overall talent and athletic abilities between the two, the results of their games vs common opponent as well as with each other, and lastly the Coaching aspects, I feel that Uconn definately has the advantages in their favor. They should be able to control the Yellow Jackets from start to finish and at both ends of the court, and it wouldn't surprise me if they win by DDs today. If you want, you can even throw in the Revenge Factor in to the mix, but today's game is for the National Championship, so that should be enough motivation in itself...Take the Huskies and lay the number with them to end their year as National Champions. Good Luck and Aloha CC.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on April 07, 2004 at 09:31 AM.]
**BIG FINAL CBB PLAY ON:
UCONN -5 (BIG WINNER....YEAH BOOEY!)
-It seems that many people are on GT primarily because they feel that this is too many points to be giving in a National Championship Game, and hardly anything else. Well, I wish handicapping for me was as simple as that. But I rather break it All down and compare matchups, look for situations, and those advantages, etc, which gives me confidence in the team I select should win both SU and ATS. After I completed this process, I found that the overwhelming BEST side to back is with the HUSKIES. Due to time constraints and lack of rest, below are most of the Major advantages that were in favor of the Huskies today...
First off, lets get this one out of the way. On Nov 26, this GT team upset this Uconn team in the pre-season NIT semi-final game 77-61 as an 8 pt dog...I say that win carries no weight which could indicate another win by GT today...Here are the reasons why that game is meaningless to me...1.That game was way back on Nov 26, 2003. A whole season went by and Uconn is a better, more mature and dominant team.... 2. Uconn had a bad night on a neutral court, shooting just under 38% from the field, and scoring just 61 pts. Since then, Uconn, on neutral courts, over the entire course of the season has gone 7-3 ATS, averaged scoring 76.2 ppg, to GT's averaging just 68 pts. Uconn, also holds an advantage over GT in all games played on neutral courts in FG%, 3 pt FG%, and Rebs pg. GT only holds an advantage over Uconn in FT% in all neutral court games...3. Uconn in that game missed 20 FTs, going 10-30 (33%). I seriously don't see that happening again today...4. Uconn went 1-10(10%) from behind the ARC. On the year, Uconn shooting 40.5% from 3 pt land...5. Okafor only had 9 pts and went 2-10 from the field, and also played sparringly due to a back injury. Okafor doesn't seem to be injured anymore, and averages on the year in DDs in pt scored and rpg...6. Uconn's backup Big Men, Villanueva and Boone, were young snot nose Freshmen at that time. They both are season veterans now. Plus, Villanueva did not play in that game due to ineligibility. He is eligible for this one...7. GT in that game on a neutral court shot 40% from 3 pt land, 73% from the line, and grabbed 47 rebs. Since then in all games on a neutral court, this output dropped to these averages, 34% from 3 pt land, 69.4% from the line, and 33 rpg...This is a different time and they both are different teams.
Big Front Court Matchup: Uconn's Okafor vs GT's Luke "Carrot Top" Schencher. Are you kidding me or what...NO CONTEST. Okafor, a unaminous choice for All American Center, and runner up for Player of the Year. Carrot Top, average performer overall. Okafer averages 18.1 ppg, 4.3 bpg, 11.7 rpg, and 60% FG. Carrot Top averages 8.8 ppg, 1.5 bpg, 6.4 rpg, and 55% FG. Okafor also ranked #1 in Block Shots in the Nation, and #2 in Rebounding in the Nation. Carrot Top unknown.
-If Okafor gets into foul trouble and needs to sit, he has capable replacements in Boone who scored in Okafor's absence against Duke 9 pts, 14 rebs, and 1 blk shot. Also, Villanueva, who due to Okafor's foul trouble had 8 pts, 6 rebs, and 2 blk shots, against Duke. If Carrot Top has to sit due to foul trouble, GT is done. But they will try to get help from two reserves who both play under 10 mins per game. Won't help to do anything except send Okafor to the line alot.
Other Front Court Matchups: GT's Muhammad and Moore vs Uconn's Villanueva and Boone. Uconn's Villanueva and Boone are #2 and #3 in rpg on the team behind Okafor. They both have an advantage in size at 6' 10", to GT's Muhammad who is 6'6 and Moore at 6'5". Villanueva and Boone simply are better shooters, boarders, and players.
Major Back Court Matchups: Uconn's Gordon and Brown vs GT's Elder and Jack. Between Gordon and Jack, both are comparable in FG%, and FT%. But Gordon does average more ppg at 17.9 to Jacks average of 12.4 ppg. Gordon also is a better shooter from downtown at 44% from behind the ARC, compared to Jacks shooting only 33% from behing the ARC. Due to Elder's injury leaving him less than 100%, this matchup evens out as Elder no longer can be relied upon to be the team's leading scorer. Uconn's Brown who has been struggling to score, does provide a lot in way of his ability to run the offense. In fact, he is one of only two Pt guards to lead a Uconn team to the National Title game. The other being Khalid El-Arman. Also, Brown is Uconn's All Time assist leader and is ranked #3 in the nation in assist. Never under estimate the importance of a very good ASSIST man, because he doesn't put up big numbers. Just remember, there would of been no Karl Malone without a John Stockton, Believe That!
Other Back Court Matchups: Uconn's Anderson vs GT's Lewis. Between these two, the numbers are very similar. Both are coming up Big for each team. Advantage here comes from who ever is in the zone.
Uconn vs GT Team Matchup: Uconn will have the definite advantage in size as Uconn has 4 Guys who are 6'10" or bigger. GT's only real big Guy is Carrot Top at 7'1". There other two big guys are 6'9" and 6'8", but they play less than 10 mins per game. Uconn will have a advantage in the paint and on the boards, due to the size and strength of the guys down low. Uconn outboards GT by about 7 more rebounds per a game. Uconn can survive if Okafor gets in foul trouble due to Villanueva and Boone, but if GT's Schenscher gets in foul trouble, it will be over for them. In fact, in their first meeting back on Nov 26, Schenscher foul out and only had 2pts in 21 mins of play.
GT's hot back court shooting may keep them in this game if Okafor is to dominant over Schenscher, but they lack any consistency in who will be the guy to step up or get hot. Uconn's Offense is a lot more balanced because of the dominant play of Okafor inside and the consistant Gordon outside. GT's Luke Schenscher has been surging and picking up his game the past two, but repeating those game high performances against the best big man in the land in Okafor will not be any simple task at all for the 7'1" Freshman from Australia.
Uconn is a team that is on a roll, beating each of its 4 Tournament Opponents by an average of 17 ppg. GT though also taking care of some notable opponents, haven't been as dominant and those wins weren't easy by any means. In fact, their wins in their last 5 games were by 5 pts, 3 pts, 5 pts, 8 pts, and 2 pts.
GT, in the ACC Tournament, got blownout by Duke and that loss on a neutral court, tells me a lot, as I compare Uconn's narrow victory over Duke. I feel, that even though Uconn only beat Duke by 1 pt, the score in that game was definately no true reflection of what could of happened and what should have happened to Duke, as well as what did happen to Duke by this Uconn team. The fact that Uconn was able to dominate Duke in the early part of the 1st half, even though Okafor only played 3:55, and scored no pts, but yet Uconn was able to easily get a DD lead on the Blue Devils tells me a lot about how this Husky team is jelling into a dominant force that no one will be able to stop at this time. Okafor is the KEY for them though to be able to dominate GT from start to finish.
In fact, in the Duke game, when Okafor had to sit after only playing for 3 mins and 55 seconds, Duke was able to get back that DD deficit and then get up on them by DD's. But, in the 2nd half and upon Okafor's return to the game, Duke was totally mismatched on all facets due to Okafor's presence. Here are some of the things that happened in the 2nd half of that game. Okafor scored all his 18 pts in the second half, while also grabbing 7 rebounds in the second half. Luol Deng who scored 12 pts in the 1st half when Okafor was on the bench, scored ONLY 4 pts in the 2nd half with Okafor in the game. Three of Duke's Big Men all fouled out, while Okafor only picked up one foul for the entire 2nd half. Duke took 15 fewer shots in the 2nd half, as compared to the first half with no Okafor. Uconn who had 18 turnovers in the 1st half, only turned the bal over 6 times in the 2nd half with Okafor playing the entire half. Okafor's return in the 2nd half resulted in these final numbers favoring Uconn, Uconn shoots 50% from the field compared to Duke shooting 40%. Uconn grabbed a total of 43 rebounds compared to Dukes grabbing 36. Uconn held Duke to just 27% from 3pt land, while Uconn shot 50% from 3pt land. And lastly, Uconn with Okafor in the game in the 2nd half comesback to overcome a double digit lead by Duke and wins SU.
Some past Tournament stats which favor Uconn today. Favs of 4-6 pts are 12-5 SU and ATS from the Final Four games till the Championship game. Also based on Conf teams in the Final Four games and beyond, Big East teams have gone 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS.
In conclusion, based on the player matchups in this game, the recent performances of both teams, the overall talent and athletic abilities between the two, the results of their games vs common opponent as well as with each other, and lastly the Coaching aspects, I feel that Uconn definately has the advantages in their favor. They should be able to control the Yellow Jackets from start to finish and at both ends of the court, and it wouldn't surprise me if they win by DDs today. If you want, you can even throw in the Revenge Factor in to the mix, but today's game is for the National Championship, so that should be enough motivation in itself...Take the Huskies and lay the number with them to end their year as National Champions. Good Luck and Aloha CC.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on April 07, 2004 at 09:31 AM.]
