Final 4 Picks

[jaypaw]

15W-7L in NCAA conference tourney play

NIT 2W-1L (2 for 3)

Round 1 NCAA Tourney 6W-10L (6 for 16)
ATS 5-6 (5 for 11)
Parlays 1-4 (1[@+142] for 5)

Round 2 NCAA Tourney 3W-7L (3 for 10)

Final 4 0-3:
Connecticut -1.5
OkState -4 (-120 @pinny)
GT +8.5 (bought 3 to -188)

Future bet anyone other than uconn or duke (+600)- L


Postseason totals:
26W-25L-1P

Overall

118wins-105losses on the season (-1.2 units ALL THIS STRESS FOR A LOSS OF 1 DAMN UNIT - !LESSON LEARNED!)
(57 for 96 ATS +12.8 units)
(31 for 46 buying points +2.9 units (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny [2 at -186] and 1 at -158))
(11 for 23 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers -2.8 units[payout -120])
(13 for 32 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers -4.2 units [winners of +142, -235, -150, -130, -163, +150, +290, +350, +180, and +122])
(8 for 21 on the ML -9.6 UNITS!!!: wins of -241, -236, -266, -236, -500, -260, -180, and -235, -450)

somewhere I got off by a unit or so (above I calculated that I was -1.2 units but adding up each category I get -.9 units.. somewhere I missed something and the calcs dont add up - but all in all its not that far off - (and I'm NOT padding my record thats for sure).

I've learned some lessons:

dont play ML teasers, and MLparlays, dont buy points, and only bet when you mean it. ITs a long season and a dumb bet here and there can mean the difference between being a few units ahead and a few units behind when its all said and done.

[This message was edited by Jaypaw on April 06, 2004 at 12:04 PM.]

[This message was edited by Jaypaw on April 06, 2004 at 12:05 PM.]

 

[jaypaw]

OkState has really seen it all - and the thing that sticks out in my mind is that OKState beat Texas 3 times. I know Texas isnt what they were last year but they are a good team, a good team that OKState took care of each time they met. St Joes, Texas, Pitt, 8 ranked teams in total, losing to none of them - this team can get up for a game.

I dont mean to get ahead of myself - because Georgia Tech did play a whopping 15 games vs ranked opponents and laid an impressive 9 wins down on them, including Uconn, Duke, NC, BC, Kansas, and Maryland.

Also OkState did stutter early losing to BYU, only winning by a bucket vs pepperdine, and losing AT TTU... Basically this team has OWNED the big 12, and the question is - would GT have performed as well in the big 12? Could they have beaten Texas 3 times? Would they have beaten Kansas by 20 in the regular season? On the other hand would they have lost to BYU? or Missouri? or at TTU?

These questions are important - I honestly believe GT would have done well playing a big 12 schedule. Someone said I'm big 12 biased - which is only part true, I'm not retarded about it, but I do like big 12 play. I enjoy the toughness, and sheer talent level - without a lot of the BS street play that the east coast conferences throw into the game. But I wouldnt for a second say that any team in the ACC would not do well in the big 12. The point is that Georgia Tech IMO would not have dominated the big 12. They play a tougher style of play than most ACC teams, which has been a big part of their success, but doing so against the big 12 produces a completely different result.

Kansas took that toughness and turned it into an OT battle, and Kansas, though no pushover, has had its troubles coping with the loss of their coach, and some good players, and in the course of the season they lost a couple to Texas, as well as Nebraska, Iowa State, Richmond, Nevada (and stanford early on) OkState on the other hand - has NOT had similar troubles, and the weaknesses that GT exposed (and the other teams that handled kansas) are not present on this OKState team.

There is a model for beating Georgia Tech - established by their ACC foes - Its easier said than done but in almost all of Techs losses they were down big early or by half at the latest. Its how OKState put down Kansas, and its how OKState put away Texas in the big 12 tourney. Also Memphis in the tourney (meaningless maybe) down at half to OSU by 22, TTU in the big 12 tourney (OSU up by 12 at half), Also Iowa State (OSU up by 11 at half).

Their double overtime loss (by 1 point) at Missouri OSU was down 11 at the half and that is the deepest hole I can remember.

Anyway Its all meaningless banter at this point. OSU take it or leave it - win or lose - big 12 bias or not...

GL to all

 

[truelyhandicapping]

OSU BEATING TEXAS THREE TIMES, coach for texas said they had no answer for allen. plain and simple.


osu problems with a big center, ala byu, same problem in this game, and they have a problem with athletic teams, ala pepperdine, which tech does have some great athletes. OSU might win this game SU, but cover that high of a number is asking a lot.

and i think when you do have a answer for allen, this is a completely diff team.

OSU has no one down low to compete with gt center, and MOORE will be able to have the size and strength to stop allen some, OSU has had troubles with guards, and jack is big trouble for them. damn that kid can play.

 

[jaypaw]

rebounds per game:

7'1" 250 Shenscher RPG 6.4
6'8" 232 McFarlin RPG 6.6

McFarlin was ineffective vs pitt with a stomach virus, yet OSU came within 2 rebounds of pitt.

Go figure



Healthy McFarlin sparks OSU
2004-03-28
By John Rohde
The Oklahoman


EAST RUTHERFORD, N. J. -- Oklahoma State senior forward Ivan McFarlin wants to share his cure for a stomach virus.
"Get some sleep. Get some chicken-noodle soup and some 7-Up. That's a great remedy," McFarlin said.

Two days after constantly throwing up, McFarlin constantly threw his body around for a game-high 12 rebounds Saturday night in OSU's 64-62 victory over Saint Joseph's in the East Rutherford, N.J., regional final.

Two nights earlier in a 63-51 victory against Pittsburgh, the Cowboys were outrebounded 33-30 and allowed 16 offensive rebounds.

McFarlin, who had six points and five rebounds in 27 minutes Thursday, said he was playing at "55 percent."

Against the Hawks, OSU dominated the boards by a 42-24 margin and was led by McFarlin and junior forward Joey Graham, who had 11 rebounds.

Although Saint Joseph's was much smaller than the brutish Panthers, good health aided McFarlin as much as anything.

"I feel good," McFarlin said. "You could tell tonight I was feeling better. I got back on my rebounding terror.

"That soup and 7-Up really hit the spot. I slept real good. I woke up (Saturday) morning, and I knew I was feeling good because I was eating again. I was eating everything."

In his seven career postseason games, McFarlin is averaging 10.8 points and 10.3 rebounds.

"He's a relentless competitor," OSU associate head coach Sean Sutton said of McFarlin. "He plays with such tremendous effort and grit. I didn't think he had a great offensive game, but he did rebound well, competed and defended."

 

[truelyhandicapping]

both colo, and nebraska have big men, how did osu compete boarding.

also like the fact that byu plays a zone, and won.

gt matchup zone defense will give osu problems i think.

who plays zone in the big 12.

 

[Kapusta]

Jaypaw-I think you may be on the right side-but the number is what scares me. I see this one pretty tight-the chalk may matter!

 

[jaypaw]

they outrebounded colorado 41-32

they outrebounded Nebraska 33-32

 

[jaypaw]

Texas plays a lot of zone...

 

[jaypaw]

I think Baylor some too...

 

[truelyhandicapping]

YANKEES TONIGHT.

TEXAS PLAYS ZONE YOU SAY.

 

[jaypaw]

not many though I guess

 

[truelyhandicapping]

I'M NOT BUYING INTO OKIE ST.

ALLEN AND LUCAS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG 12 JUST haven't played as well as i would of thought.

just some more great games.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

haven't really found a web site that tells thatkind of info.

 

[jaypaw]

I dont know for sure - I thought I had seen them go into it in a few games but I could be wrong.

 

[jaypaw]

outside of the big 12?

They just beat highly ranked St Joes and Pitt, after destroying ranked Memphis, and walking over EWU. Before that they hadnt played outside of the big 12 since january 6th, when they just completed a 6 game stretch of winning by 15 points or more.

The BYU game prompted their coach to get them into shoulder pads in the practice after to learn some toughness... After the 6 game demolition mission they made one misstep going into lubbock and getting beat handily by Mr. Knight and Co., and then went on to lose only 1 game in their next 22 games (by 1 pt at missouri I must add).

Maybe this is it - maybe they've lost their toughness. I do believe that St. Joes was overrated - however, if OKState lays an egg here I will be totally suprised.

It is really a toss up when it comes to the number 5 - because its so easy especially at this point in the season where its do or die - to just let it all hang out and get into a never ending fouling match where the score can get run up (as we saw in the Pitt/OSU game).

The basic facts remain that I am choosing to cling to for better or for worse -#1 Kansas almost beat GTech and #2 in my book being in San Antonio should also favor OSU.

Pair that with Elder most likely facing a very limited practice week (and lots of texas beef), the game is there for OSU to take.



But its just another game...

Any additional input is always appreciated

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i don't think they lost their toughness at all, i just think the yellowjackets are a physical style in the acc, which is a finese league, so a team with more athletes like duke gives them problems, but a team like okie state is perfect. some great athletes, but a physical style.

this is a great matchup.

i would say the same for uconn going against the dukies, physical and athletic, a great combo for the huskies.

i'm probably going to split on these games, it is just so damn hard this time of year.

 

[jaypaw]

So is Pitt tougher than Georgia Tech?

I would say that toughness wise Pitt plays in a tougher league - would you agree?

Would you also agree that toughness wise OKState plays in a tougher league?

Pitt and OkState are two of the (toughness wise) toughest teams in two of the toughest leagues.

GT is tough for the ACC - but get them into a Big 12 game and they wont be pushing anyone around. My guess anyway.

As always I could be wrong. (not that I'm always wrong but....

)

 

[jaypaw]

Actually I take that back - GT beat TTU early on by a good margin I believe...

However, GT's style of play has changed for some reason - I think its because the wuss ACC refs were nailing them with foul calls.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

FROM TOP TO BOTTOM THE BIG 12 IS BIGGER AND STRONGER, SO PROBABLY MORE PHYSICAL.

GOOD COMPARISON VS PITT AND GT.

PITT DOWN LOW PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT, NOT BY MUCH. BUT THE BIG MAN FOR TECH ADDS A WHOLE ANOTHER DEMENTION. HE WILL BLOCK SOME SHOTS LIKE HE DID AGAINST KU. DAMN CAPLOCk

he will change some shots, and moore for tech is very physical, which should effect allen.

plus muhammod and jack will give osu problems in the back court.

i would of taken tech vs st joes +5 in a second, so for me, this is a no brainer. but that is me. i think st joes is still better than osu.

 

[jaypaw]

With taft at 6'10" 250 and troutman at 6'7" 236 the two I think compare well to the one big man of GT...

Between Krauser and Troutman the two accounted for almost 14 boards per game, in comparison Schenscher cant do it all, He avgs 6.4 per game, and the next in boards on the team is Jack, a guard, at 4.9.

Not that guards rebounding is a bad thing - Tony Allens 5.5 RPG avg must be accounted for and add in forward Joey Graham's avg of 4.9, those both compare well to that of Jack and Schenser.

McFarlin of OKState averages 6.6 and don't tell me its tougher to get a rebound with an ACC schedule than it is in the Big 12...

The scoring Weapons of Tech are:
Elder averages 16.2 per game
Jack averages 12.4
Lewis averages 11
muhammad averages 9.6
Bynum averages 9.3
Schenser averages 8.8
and Moore averages 5.8

Ok State's scoring weapons (averages):
Allen 16
Lucas 15.3
McFarlin 12.4
Graham 12.2
Bobik 7.5
Weatherspoon 4.8