Can someone explain how to calculate the value of a runline on a team getting +1.5 runs versus taking them on the money line at a +. For example here is one matchup today, what has more value the moneyline or runline and how would you figure it. Home teams win 31.9 % of their games by 1 run, Road teams win 23.5 % of their games by 1 run.
Pirates at Colorado +1.5 -201 M/L +101
What has more value?
Using the percentages above how would one figure this?
Say out of 100 wagers in a perfect world the pirates won all 100 with the +1.5 runs. How many out of 100 would they win on the M/L?
Well, if they weren't getting that +1.5 runs than all the games they lost by one would be a loss. How many times would Colorado win this game out of 100 by one run? About 68.1 so, 68.1 *101 =6878.1-3190 for lost wagers=a value of 3688.1.
The Run line has a value of 4975 out of 100 wagers. My problem is that my calculations are either way off, or the bookies lines are off. Help please.
:smoker2:
Pirates at Colorado +1.5 -201 M/L +101
What has more value?
Using the percentages above how would one figure this?
Say out of 100 wagers in a perfect world the pirates won all 100 with the +1.5 runs. How many out of 100 would they win on the M/L?
Well, if they weren't getting that +1.5 runs than all the games they lost by one would be a loss. How many times would Colorado win this game out of 100 by one run? About 68.1 so, 68.1 *101 =6878.1-3190 for lost wagers=a value of 3688.1.
The Run line has a value of 4975 out of 100 wagers. My problem is that my calculations are either way off, or the bookies lines are off. Help please.
:smoker2: