Figuring out Teaser Hold Percentages

[Java]

Guys-
What the sportsbooks don't want you to know:

With Football season upon us, a lot of players waste money on these giant teasers with 2-3 touchdowns worth of points.
Here is how compute the real odds:
For doing the math, assume 100 random 1-dollar bets (this way, percentages and number of winning bets match).


For a 6-point teaser, the odds of winning a single game is about 66%. So, the probability of winning both games is 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.4356 or about 43.56%.

Most books go 50-50 for this 43% opportunity. So book collects 100 random bets on 2-team teasers. 43.56% win, 56.44% lose. Book makes 12.88% hold percentage.

At 10 points, we have 75% chance for single game. So for two teams: 56% winning (three teams 0.75 * .075 * 0.75 = 42.2%). If book asks you to lay 3 to win 1 for 2-teamer, the hold percentage for the book is 25%. WOW!
300 lay for all 100 bets.
56 players get their 3 dollars back and win a new dollar.
300 - (3*56) - 56 = $76
$76/$300 is about 25% hold.

If the single win % is 77% instead of 75%, the hold percentage drops to only 21%.

So, these giant teasers are a giant rip-off!!

Here are a few APROXIMATE numbers for one-team, and the break-even point (0% hold) for 3-team teasers odds:
7-pt 69% 1 to win 2
10-pt 77% 5 to win 6
13-pt 81% 9 to win 8
14-pt 83% 4 to win 3
17-pt 87% 2 to win 1
18-pt 89% 5 to win 2
20-pt 91.5% 10 to win 3
21-pt 92.5% 15 to win 4
24-pt 94.5% 11 to win 2

Don't assume 91.5% is super accurate. It could be 90% to 93%.

The point is: check the math and play straight bets. The odds are A LOT better.

The hold percentage for the books on straight bets is only 4-5%. The teaser hold percentage for these giant teasers is typically 3 or 4 times as much for the books.

Play smart. Your bankroll will last much longer.

 

[sportsmonitor]

In the long run your analysis is probably correct, but early in the year teasers are so much fun when the lines are off. Hard to pass up wheeling a 3 team 10pt. teaser with Louisville -12 and Syracuse -5.5 with a third team like Ill, Uconn, N.W., Neb, Fresno St., and Tex. A&M.

 

[Java]

Sportsmonitor-
If the lines are off, you are still better with straight bets.

The teasers have so much juice built into them, that even with the weak numbers, the book still has advantage, but in straight plays with the same weak numbers, you can get the advantage.

Why would you make plays where the book has 15%-25% hold when you could make bets with the book having only 4%-5% hold advantage?

 

[Talenz]

Can someone tell me why this example is wrong,if it is.

6 point, 2 team teaser at even money.

To make this simple let's say the player likes two even money teams today and has $100 to wager.

He splits the $100 and puts $50 on each team, one early game and one late game.

Each wager has a 50/50 chance of winning. 33% of the time he breaks even, 33% he wins $100 and 33% he loses $100 on the day.

However if he plays a 6 point teaser he has a 50% chance of winning the early game and a 66% chance of winning the late game.

In the long run wouldn't this player win more if they pick at 50%? If not, why not. Thanks

 

[THE SHRINK]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Java:

Guys-
What the sportsbooks don't want you to know:

With Football season upon us, a lot of players waste money on these giant teasers with 2-3 touchdowns worth of points.
Here is how compute the real odds:
For doing the math, assume 100 random 1-dollar bets (this way, percentages and number of winning bets match).


For a 6-point teaser, the odds of winning a single game is about 66%. So, the probability of winning both games is 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.4356 or about 43.56%.

Most books go 50-50 for this 43% opportunity. So book collects 100 random bets on 2-team teasers. 43.56% win, 56.44% lose. Book makes 12.88% hold percentage.

At 10 points, we have 75% chance for single game. So for two teams: 56% winning (three teams 0.75 * .075 * 0.75 = 42.2%). If book asks you to lay 3 to win 1 for 2-teamer, the hold percentage for the book is 25%. WOW!
300 lay for all 100 bets.
56 players get their 3 dollars back and win a new dollar.
300 - (3*56) - 56 = $76
$76/$300 is about 25% hold.

If the single win % is 77% instead of 75%, the hold percentage drops to only 21%.

So, these giant teasers are a giant rip-off!!

Here are a few APROXIMATE numbers for one-team, and the break-even point (0% hold) for 3-team teasers odds:
7-pt 69% 1 to win 2
10-pt 77% 5 to win 6
13-pt 81% 9 to win 8
14-pt 83% 4 to win 3
17-pt 87% 2 to win 1
18-pt 89% 5 to win 2
20-pt 91.5% 10 to win 3
21-pt 92.5% 15 to win 4
24-pt 94.5% 11 to win 2

Don't assume 91.5% is super accurate. It could be 90% to 93%.

The point is: check the math and play straight bets. The odds are A LOT better.

The hold percentage for the books on straight bets is only 4-5%. The teaser hold percentage for these giant teasers is typically 3 or 4 times as much for the books.

Play smart. Your bankroll will last much longer. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The odds of hitting both sides of teasers is categorically not 66% and it varies significantly depending on what numbers you go through...

For example, on a 7 point teaser, if you go through 3 twice in the NFL, the chances of you winning both sides is much greater than making a 10 point dog plus 17...

Also, College numbers fall far more randomly than the NFL, so they are harder to hit...

THE SHRINK

 

[THE SHRINK]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Java:

Guys-
What the sportsbooks don't want you to know:

With Football season upon us, a lot of players waste money on these giant teasers with 2-3 touchdowns worth of points.
Here is how compute the real odds:
For doing the math, assume 100 random 1-dollar bets (this way, percentages and number of winning bets match).


For a 6-point teaser, the odds of winning a single game is about 66%. So, the probability of winning both games is 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.4356 or about 43.56%.

Most books go 50-50 for this 43% opportunity. So book collects 100 random bets on 2-team teasers. 43.56% win, 56.44% lose. Book makes 12.88% hold percentage.

At 10 points, we have 75% chance for single game. So for two teams: 56% winning (three teams 0.75 * .075 * 0.75 = 42.2%). If book asks you to lay 3 to win 1 for 2-teamer, the hold percentage for the book is 25%. WOW!
300 lay for all 100 bets.
56 players get their 3 dollars back and win a new dollar.
300 - (3*56) - 56 = $76
$76/$300 is about 25% hold.

If the single win % is 77% instead of 75%, the hold percentage drops to only 21%.

So, these giant teasers are a giant rip-off!!

Here are a few APROXIMATE numbers for one-team, and the break-even point (0% hold) for 3-team teasers odds:
7-pt 69% 1 to win 2
10-pt 77% 5 to win 6
13-pt 81% 9 to win 8
14-pt 83% 4 to win 3
17-pt 87% 2 to win 1
18-pt 89% 5 to win 2
20-pt 91.5% 10 to win 3
21-pt 92.5% 15 to win 4
24-pt 94.5% 11 to win 2

Don't assume 91.5% is super accurate. It could be 90% to 93%.

The point is: check the math and play straight bets. The odds are A LOT better.

The hold percentage for the books on straight bets is only 4-5%. The teaser hold percentage for these giant teasers is typically 3 or 4 times as much for the books.

Play smart. Your bankroll will last much longer. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The odds of hitting both sides of teasers is categorically not 66% and it varies significantly depending on what numbers you go through...

For example, on 1 7 point teaser, if you go through 3 twice in the NFL, the chances of you winning both sides is much greater than making a 10 point dog plus 17...

THE SHRINK

 

[Java]

Talenz-
If 50% chance of winning each of 2 games. The outcomes are:
25% lose both
50% win one lose other
25% win both

it's not 33% for each outcome.

Shrink-
Could you please edit out requoting my entire post in both of your short-posts. It makes the thread much harder to read.

As for your comments about the odds of hitting 2-teams. The odds I presented are based on the outcomes if every possibility is bet. For even money bet on 2-team, the single game win % would have to be 70.7% for break-even. The actual win % is of course less than that.

I used the standard teasers to demonstrate the math. Crossing 3 point line means nothing when you are talking about giant teasers.

The point still remains that these giant teasers have A LOT more juice built into them than straight bets. So, if you have a good number on the game, why would you dilute it with a bet that has more juice for the book?

 

[RobFunk]

the teaser is a tool and should be used as such. java, it just sounds like youre trying to talk yourself out of ever using them to simplify gambling.

if you lay -150 on a side or a teaser or odds are against you, really what does it matter if it shows a 66% chance of winning if you are 90% confident it will cash

sure they have a hold advantage, when do they not have a hold advantage and i see your point that it is theoretically greater for teasers, but some of these monkey teasers it is just too easy.

 

[Java]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by RobFunk:
really what does it matter if it shows a 66% chance of winning if you are 90% confident it will cash <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Robfunk-
That is exactly the mentality that makes teasers so profitable for the book. If you are 90% confident of an 66% outcome, would you be 70% confident in a coin-flipping contest?

Playing the teaser is like playing -110 or -115 on a game when it's available at -107 or -105. Even if it is a good bet at -110, it's a much better bet at -105.

 

[daringly]

Heh.

Pay attention to Shrink - he's the only one even close.

Joe Square will win about 65% of his NFL teaser legs (much less in college and basketball), and 42% of his 2-team 6-pt teaser wagers.

Joe Wiseguy will win about 78% of his teaser legs, and about 60% of his teaser wagers. If he's playing +100 2-team 6-pt teasers, he can hold 20% against a book.

Joe Square plays small, and loses. Joe Wiseguy tends to play limits and win, until a book kicks him out. So can you imagine why most books have teaser limits much lower than sides?

 

[Java]

Daringly-
You guys really seemed to miss the primary point of my post which was about the crazy GIANT teasers with over 10-pts and very poor odds. The 6-pt teaser was only an example to show the computations, given the win % for a single game.

I'm doubtful that Joe Wiseguy really could win 78% of each teaser game. I'm not convinced it's that high.

Besides, my hope was to save the Joe Square who thinks he can win big on those giant teasers because with that many points, you can't lose.

 

[sportsmonitor]

I highly doubt anyone could hit 78% on teasers as well. They are fun to play on the side as an added attraction like when you have two absolute no brainers as with Syracuse and Louisville today. Last week Penn St. and Cal. were no brainers but the problem is finding a third team if playing a 10pt teaser. As you can see in the example above I just threw out 6 other teams and only hit 2 or 3 of them in a 10pt. teaser. The odds as Java stated are probably correct.

 

[mellencapper]

THE OLD SAYING TEASIN IS MIGHTY PLEASIN

 

[brewster]

I think Java is correct on these big point teasers. I think there is alot more value in 6-7 point teasers. Especially at even money or ties win. I think 3 team 10 point teasers at -110 also has some value for us players.