Have 5-6 more games I'm looking at but they are all later in the night. Will update if I add anything.
My Odds:
Maryland -1, 67
Rutgers -18, 58
Tulsa pk, 70
Kansas State -24, 50
Bowling Green -7, 77
Notre Dame -5, 45
Leans:
Rutgers -13
Tulane's defense isn't performing at all like last year and Rutgers can score 35-40 when they can run effectively. Not impressed by the Green Wave offense either. If the Scarlet Knights had a QB that wasn't as mistake prone as Gary Nova I'd be higher on this. Just a small lean.
Bowling Green/UMASS o70.5
Value has been sucked out of it already. Opened a touchdown lower. UMASS defense is garbage. Bowling Green should get 40+ with minimal effort. UMASS offense has played some tough D's this year and should find it much easier to move the ball against Bowling Green. Falcons gas out their own defense by scoring quickly on offense. Massachusetts scored 38 in the only game this year where they could run the ball and they should be able to run here.
Syracuse +9
Syracuse offense is nice. Hunt has been solid at QB. They are a bit limited in the red zone but they won't have to score many points to cover the spread here. Notre Dame's defense is not as good as last year and this figures to be a close game. I've been impressed with the Orange defense. They take away the run very well and I don't think the Irish can move the ball with Golson as a pocket passer. The only thing that scares me is Golson's legs since Cuse struggled with a mobile QB against Villanova but this Notre Dame team is extremely overrated in this matchup.
Arkansas/Texas A&M o71.5
I really thought I'd end up playing Arkansas here but the spread is right at my number. Razorbacks could score more than the 35 or so I anticipated but they gave up 52 against a kinda similar Auburn offense so I'm not sure how much they can stop the Aggies. Razorbacks should rush for 300 yards here which makes the game clock move faster. That's the main reason this is a lean. Wouldn't surprise me at all if both teams put up 40 or more. Offenses are way better than opposing defenses.
Plays:
Maryland +4
Indiana has a very nice offense but they are facing a higher quality defense than they've faced all season. Terrapins losing Jefferson on the D Line is a big blow but this is still a very experienced defense that should slow down the Hoosiers. Indiana's defense is stinky and Maryland's offense is in the 3rd year of the scheme with a veteran QB. Say Terrapins 34-31 or so.
UTEP +28
Missed out on u58 opener. Would have been nice. Game bet down to 52.5 so no go on the total. Still a little value on UTEP. Miners run nonstop which is great for a big dog. Kansas State hasn't faced an offense like this in years so they may not be ready for it. UTEP coming off a bye with extra time to prepare. Miners don't have much of a defense but they always seem to keep teams out of the end zone after long drives and the Wildcats have had some issues punching it in lately. Kansas State will run nonstop as well since they can and 28 seems like too many points.
Texas State +3
Could have had +5 earlier in the week but I like to wait til the last second and grab shit lines. Bobcats are very strong offensively and Tulsa can't stop anyone. I figured with 10 guys back the Golden Hurricane would improve offensively but they're a joke yet again. Bobcats' offense has plenty of issues as well but Texas State has an experienced QB and offensive line while Tulsa has a new QB, new schemes, and less experienced OL. This should be a shootout and I trust Texas State to get the narrow win.
Clemson -14.5
Clemson/North Carolina o65.5
These might be my favorite plays of the week. North Carolina is likely down 2 offensive lineman and facing one of the top defensive lines in college football. I trust Larry Fedora's offense to score some points against just about anyone but I can't see them scoring more than 30. The Tar Heels are garbage defensively and are down a D Line starter for this game as well. Clemson O line is going to get a huge push and the Tigers have a realistic chance to score 60 by themselves here. I have them at 52 or so but if they hit 60 then North Carolina should tack on a late score to make the over even easier. I think these bets will come in easy.
My Odds:
Maryland -1, 67
Rutgers -18, 58
Tulsa pk, 70
Kansas State -24, 50
Bowling Green -7, 77
Notre Dame -5, 45
Leans:
Rutgers -13
Tulane's defense isn't performing at all like last year and Rutgers can score 35-40 when they can run effectively. Not impressed by the Green Wave offense either. If the Scarlet Knights had a QB that wasn't as mistake prone as Gary Nova I'd be higher on this. Just a small lean.
Bowling Green/UMASS o70.5
Value has been sucked out of it already. Opened a touchdown lower. UMASS defense is garbage. Bowling Green should get 40+ with minimal effort. UMASS offense has played some tough D's this year and should find it much easier to move the ball against Bowling Green. Falcons gas out their own defense by scoring quickly on offense. Massachusetts scored 38 in the only game this year where they could run the ball and they should be able to run here.
Syracuse +9
Syracuse offense is nice. Hunt has been solid at QB. They are a bit limited in the red zone but they won't have to score many points to cover the spread here. Notre Dame's defense is not as good as last year and this figures to be a close game. I've been impressed with the Orange defense. They take away the run very well and I don't think the Irish can move the ball with Golson as a pocket passer. The only thing that scares me is Golson's legs since Cuse struggled with a mobile QB against Villanova but this Notre Dame team is extremely overrated in this matchup.
Arkansas/Texas A&M o71.5
I really thought I'd end up playing Arkansas here but the spread is right at my number. Razorbacks could score more than the 35 or so I anticipated but they gave up 52 against a kinda similar Auburn offense so I'm not sure how much they can stop the Aggies. Razorbacks should rush for 300 yards here which makes the game clock move faster. That's the main reason this is a lean. Wouldn't surprise me at all if both teams put up 40 or more. Offenses are way better than opposing defenses.
Plays:
Maryland +4
Indiana has a very nice offense but they are facing a higher quality defense than they've faced all season. Terrapins losing Jefferson on the D Line is a big blow but this is still a very experienced defense that should slow down the Hoosiers. Indiana's defense is stinky and Maryland's offense is in the 3rd year of the scheme with a veteran QB. Say Terrapins 34-31 or so.
UTEP +28
Missed out on u58 opener. Would have been nice. Game bet down to 52.5 so no go on the total. Still a little value on UTEP. Miners run nonstop which is great for a big dog. Kansas State hasn't faced an offense like this in years so they may not be ready for it. UTEP coming off a bye with extra time to prepare. Miners don't have much of a defense but they always seem to keep teams out of the end zone after long drives and the Wildcats have had some issues punching it in lately. Kansas State will run nonstop as well since they can and 28 seems like too many points.
Texas State +3
Could have had +5 earlier in the week but I like to wait til the last second and grab shit lines. Bobcats are very strong offensively and Tulsa can't stop anyone. I figured with 10 guys back the Golden Hurricane would improve offensively but they're a joke yet again. Bobcats' offense has plenty of issues as well but Texas State has an experienced QB and offensive line while Tulsa has a new QB, new schemes, and less experienced OL. This should be a shootout and I trust Texas State to get the narrow win.
Clemson -14.5
Clemson/North Carolina o65.5
These might be my favorite plays of the week. North Carolina is likely down 2 offensive lineman and facing one of the top defensive lines in college football. I trust Larry Fedora's offense to score some points against just about anyone but I can't see them scoring more than 30. The Tar Heels are garbage defensively and are down a D Line starter for this game as well. Clemson O line is going to get a huge push and the Tigers have a realistic chance to score 60 by themselves here. I have them at 52 or so but if they hit 60 then North Carolina should tack on a late score to make the over even easier. I think these bets will come in easy.
