Main Card:
JULIAN EROSA (26-9) VS STEVEN PETERSON (19-9)
Featherweight (145)
- Erosa Decision ...If everything goes to plan, Erosa and Peterson should provide a war in the pocket and FOTN bonuses for both men. Under the covers, Erosa has been sharpening his technical tools (gauging distance earlier, timing sharper counters) but the powerful front-foot aggression remains Erosa’s selling point. Peterson’s chin is slowly showing the miles of a long, punishing career and could unravel under the heat of Erosa’s hands, but the career durability is still too sticky to overlook.
BRYAN BATTLE (6-1) VS TRESEAN GORE (3-0)
Middleweight (185)
- Battle Sub ...A TUF match-up several months later, this is the caliber of fight that shouldn’t be featured on a UFC card. A fantastic chin and an opponent willing to eat shots are a decent combination for Gore to claim the scorecards. The edge in experience and activity is too deep to overlook Battle overcoming early adversity.
SAM ALVEY (33-16-1) VS BRENDAN ALLEN (17-5)
Middleweight (205)
- Allen ...Low output, defensively savvy-ish, Sam Alvey allows himself to drop every round while searching to land one shot from his powerful left hand. Allen’s clear grappling advantage will struggle to shine as Alvey has shown a frustrating ability to keep himself standing, leaving Allen to his voluminous striking that torches what little he has in the gas tank. I can’t ever pick Alvey to win a fight at this stage, but if Smilin’ were ever to break his slide, this is a perfect last-minute opponent.
SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV (14-0) VS CARLSTON HARRIS (17-4)
Welterweight (170)
- Rakhmonov Sub ...Carlston Harris is a huge threat considering his unorthodox striking, natural length and wild aggression – but his many flaws will allow Rakhmonov to slowly adapt to the fight. Harris’ superb work from the body lock is intriguing, considering Oliveira’s success in controlling Rakhmonov for periods of their fight. More likely, however, is that Harris’ aggression and liberal risk-taking see him walking in to a finish earlier than Rakhmonov’s chin being broken.
PUNAHELE SORIANO (8-1) VS NICK MAXIMOV (7-0)
Middleweight (185)
- Soriano KO ...Takedown machine, Nick Maximov, requires a huge step-up to survive with his consciousness intact. If Maximov can escape the first-round unscathed, the Oregon native could pin a tiring Soriano to the mat with ease. More likely, however, Soriano returns to his first-round knockout artistry.
Main Event
JACK HERMANSSON (22-6) VS SEAN STRICKLAND (24-3)
Middleweight (185)
- Strickland Decision ...A fantastic defensive wrestler, Strickland is primed to engage Hermansson in a solely striking match. Even with a long, powerful jab, Hermansson can often get flustered against pressure strikers. Using volume to dictate range, the Swede attempts to keep opponents gun-shy under a barrage of flurries. Strickland, owning the heavier hands and cleaner technicals, should be able to bully Hermansson from the opening bell. Despite representing one of the better MW grapplers, Hermansson will struggle to get Strickland to the mat. Sure, it was Welterweight, but Strickland restricted Kamaru Usman to just 2 of 8 takedowns back in 2017. The only potential is if Hermansson sets an uncomfortable pace early and tests Strickland’s gas tank at this weight. Not likely, but food for thought.