Favorites winning at an unprecedented rate

[letsgohoosiers]

Here's how favorites have done historically:

<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><thead><tr><th>Record
W-L (marg, % win)</th> <th>
$ On</th> <th>
$ Against</th> <th>Over/Under
O-U-P (marg, % over)</th> <th>
$ Over </th> <th>
$ Under </th> <th name="query_header">query</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">49-38 (0.32, 56.3%)</td> <td align="center"> -235 </td> <td align="center"> -145 </td> <td align="center">39-48-0 (-0.34, 44.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -1380 </td> <td align="center"> 510 </td> <td align="center">month=10 and season=2004</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">263-161 (0.84, 62.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -2475 </td> <td align="center"> -895 </td> <td align="center">191-213-20 (0.24, 47.3%)</td> <td align="center"> -4330 </td> <td align="center"> 290 </td> <td align="center">month=9 and season=2004</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">269-165 (0.90, 62.0%)</td> <td align="center"> 2475 </td> <td align="center"> -4615 </td> <td align="center">221-192-21 (0.96, 53.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 980 </td> <td align="center"> -5110 </td> <td align="center">month=8 and season=2004</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">251-173 (0.91, 59.2%)</td> <td align="center"> 305 </td> <td align="center"> -2365 </td> <td align="center">194-207-23 (0.47, 48.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -3370 </td> <td align="center"> -640 </td> <td align="center">month=7 and season=2004</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">229-189 (0.46, 54.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -3115 </td> <td align="center"> 965 </td> <td align="center">198-206-14 (0.66, 49.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -2860 </td> <td align="center"> -1180 </td> <td align="center">month=6 and season=2004</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">233-191 (0.46, 55.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -3500 </td> <td align="center"> 1300 </td> <td align="center">195-208-21 (0.25, 48.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -3380 </td> <td align="center"> -650 </td> <td align="center">month=5 and season=2004</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">190-162 (0.36, 54.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -4020 </td> <td align="center"> 2030 </td> <td align="center">172-166-14 (0.67, 50.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -1060 </td> <td align="center"> -2320 </td> <td align="center">month=4 and season=2004</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">1-1 (3.00, 50.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -150 </td> <td align="center"> 110 </td> <td align="center">2-0-0 (2.50, 100.0%)</td> <td align="center"> 200 </td> <td align="center"> -220 </td> <td align="center">month=3 and season=2004</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><thead><tr><th name="query_header">
</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">37-24 (0.67, 60.7%)</td> <td align="center"> 175 </td> <td align="center"> -465 </td> <td align="center">31-29-1 (0.23, 51.7%)</td> <td align="center"> 10 </td> <td align="center"> -530 </td> <td align="center">month=10 and season=2005</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">243-194 (0.42, 55.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -3305 </td> <td align="center"> 935 </td> <td align="center">193-223-21 (0.17, 46.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -4920 </td> <td align="center"> 730 </td> <td align="center">month=9 and season=2005</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">240-189 (0.63, 55.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -4545 </td> <td align="center"> 2065 </td> <td align="center">201-207-21 (0.23, 49.3%)</td> <td align="center"> -2420 </td> <td align="center"> -1580 </td> <td align="center">month=8 and season=2005</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">238-186 (0.60, 56.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -2975 </td> <td align="center"> 685 </td> <td align="center">188-215-21 (0.20, 46.7%)</td> <td align="center"> -4470 </td> <td align="center"> 1010 </td> <td align="center">month=7 and season=2005</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">236-176 (0.73, 57.3%)</td> <td align="center"> -1235 </td> <td align="center"> -905 </td> <td align="center">189-196-27 (0.61, 49.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -1850 </td> <td align="center"> -920 </td> <td align="center">month=6 and season=2005</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">250-182 (0.57, 57.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -200 </td> <td align="center"> -1840 </td> <td align="center">178-218-36 (0.23, 44.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -6000 </td> <td align="center"> 2240 </td> <td align="center">month=5 and season=2005</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">209-163 (0.53, 56.2%)</td> <td align="center"> -830 </td> <td align="center"> -950 </td> <td align="center">167-187-18 (0.04, 47.2%)</td> <td align="center"> -3385 </td> <td align="center"> 670 </td> <td align="center">month=4 and season=2005</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><thead><tr><th name="query_header">
</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">22-25 (-0.02, 46.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -1455 </td> <td align="center"> 1135 </td> <td align="center">19-28-0 (-0.43, 40.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -1175 </td> <td align="center"> 690 </td> <td align="center">month=10 and season=2006</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">235-199 (0.49, 54.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -5045 </td> <td align="center"> 2575 </td> <td align="center">193-218-23 (0.36, 47.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -4325 </td> <td align="center"> 440 </td> <td align="center">month=9 and season=2006</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">263-181 (0.75, 59.2%)</td> <td align="center"> 1075 </td> <td align="center"> -3325 </td> <td align="center">187-236-21 (-0.01, 44.2%)</td> <td align="center"> -7045 </td> <td align="center"> 2925 </td> <td align="center">month=8 and season=2006</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">219-186 (0.38, 54.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -3770 </td> <td align="center"> 1460 </td> <td align="center">217-177-11 (0.98, 55.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 2315 </td> <td align="center"> -6250 </td> <td align="center">month=7 and season=2006</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">227-183 (0.37, 55.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -3585 </td> <td align="center"> 1245 </td> <td align="center">192-203-14 (0.26, 48.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -3000 </td> <td align="center"> -905 </td> <td align="center">month=6 and season=2006</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">253-175 (0.62, 59.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 965 </td> <td align="center"> -3030 </td> <td align="center">213-190-23 (0.61, 52.9%)</td> <td align="center"> 675 </td> <td align="center"> -4330 </td> <td align="center">month=5 and season=2006</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">210-167 (0.42, 55.7%)</td> <td align="center"> -1880 </td> <td align="center"> 75 </td> <td align="center">194-158-24 (0.92, 55.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 2310 </td> <td align="center"> -5565 </td> <td align="center">month=4 and season=2006</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><thead><tr><th name="query_header">
</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">17-14 (0.90, 54.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -195 </td> <td align="center"> 35 </td> <td align="center">14-14-3 (0.16, 50.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -120 </td> <td align="center"> -130 </td> <td align="center">month=10 and season=2007</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">241-184 (0.60, 56.7%)</td> <td align="center"> -2955 </td> <td align="center"> 515 </td> <td align="center">199-209-16 (0.58, 48.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -2685 </td> <td align="center"> -1240 </td> <td align="center">month=9 and season=2007</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">249-193 (0.48, 56.3%)</td> <td align="center"> -1545 </td> <td align="center"> -615 </td> <td align="center">213-211-18 (0.62, 50.2%)</td> <td align="center"> -1740 </td> <td align="center"> -2485 </td> <td align="center">month=8 and season=2007</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">230-171 (0.79, 57.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -1055 </td> <td align="center"> -1015 </td> <td align="center">181-195-25 (0.39, 48.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -3287 </td> <td align="center"> -240 </td> <td align="center">month=7 and season=2007</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">232-185 (0.62, 55.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -4000 </td> <td align="center"> 1655 </td> <td align="center">207-189-20 (0.63, 52.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 280 </td> <td align="center"> -4015 </td> <td align="center">month=6 and season=2007</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">254-174 (0.83, 59.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 1000 </td> <td align="center"> -2945 </td> <td align="center">193-211-24 (0.32, 47.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -4835 </td> <td align="center"> -325 </td> <td align="center">month=5 and season=2007</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">219-167 (0.78, 56.7%)</td> <td align="center"> -1950 </td> <td align="center"> -250 </td> <td align="center">170-188-28 (0.10, 47.5%)</td> <td align="center"> -3450 </td> <td align="center"> 20 </td> <td align="center">month=4 and season=2007</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><thead><tr><th name="query_header">
</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">17-17 (-0.56, 50.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -640 </td> <td align="center"> 470 </td> <td align="center">14-18-2 (0.34, 43.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -550 </td> <td align="center"> 230 </td> <td align="center">month=10 and season=2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">216-170 (0.40, 56.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -3010 </td> <td align="center"> 855 </td> <td align="center">192-179-13 (0.66, 51.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -175 </td> <td align="center"> -3235 </td> <td align="center">month=9 and season=2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">266-169 (1.06, 61.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 1080 </td> <td align="center"> -3520 </td> <td align="center">200-211-24 (0.44, 48.7%)</td> <td align="center"> -2985 </td> <td align="center"> -1060 </td> <td align="center">month=8 and season=2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">233-165 (0.74, 58.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 950 </td> <td align="center"> -2805 </td> <td align="center">210-175-13 (0.90, 54.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 2010 </td> <td align="center"> -5885 </td> <td align="center">month=7 and season=2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">234-179 (0.69, 56.7%)</td> <td align="center"> -1060 </td> <td align="center"> -895 </td> <td align="center">183-210-20 (0.19, 46.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -4590 </td> <td align="center"> 535 </td> <td align="center">month=6 and season=2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">256-186 (0.41, 57.9%)</td> <td align="center"> 855 </td> <td align="center"> -2865 </td> <td align="center">193-227-22 (0.10, 46.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -5540 </td> <td align="center"> 1525 </td> <td align="center">month=5 and season=2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">217-204 (0.48, 51.5%)</td> <td align="center"> -5225 </td> <td align="center"> 2905 </td> <td align="center">189-212-20 (0.06, 47.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -4060 </td> <td align="center"> 390 </td> <td align="center">month=4 and season=2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">9-7 (1.12, 56.2%)</td> <td align="center"> -210 </td> <td align="center"> 100 </td> <td align="center">6-10-0 (0.44, 37.5%)</td> <td align="center"> -485 </td> <td align="center"> 360 </td> <td align="center">month=3 and season=2008</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><thead><tr><th name="query_header">
</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">164-89 (1.30, 64.8%)</td> <td align="center"> 4290 </td> <td align="center"> -5330 </td> <td align="center">100-146-7 (0.05, 40.7%)</td> <td align="center"> -6065 </td> <td align="center"> 3630 </td> <td align="center">month=7 and season=2009</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">229-187 (0.44, 55.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -2745 </td> <td align="center"> 650 </td> <td align="center">172-220-21 (-0.08, 43.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -6520 </td> <td align="center"> 3030 </td> <td align="center">month=6 and season=2009</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">259-183 (0.71, 58.6%)</td> <td align="center"> 1385 </td> <td align="center"> -3465 </td> <td align="center">194-226-18 (0.24, 46.2%)</td> <td align="center"> -4855 </td> <td align="center"> 1095 </td> <td align="center">month=5 and season=2009</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">177-167 (0.11, 51.5%)</td> <td align="center"> -4210 </td> <td align="center"> 2470 </td> <td align="center">180-153-10 (0.61, 54.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 1510 </td> <td align="center"> -4520 </td> <td align="center">month=4 and season=2009</td></tr></tbody></table>
Highlighted is this month.

Up $4290 is the largest profit by a wide margin over any month the past 5 years.

Which begs the question:

Do you play the law of averages and fade the favorites the last week of the month?

Also it should be noted that the UNDER is at a high as well.

 

[seanjohn007]

unders are hitting at a crazy rate also. not sure what to make of this info. this is the time of the year that the better teams start to pull away but i find it hard to belive vegas wont do something about it. if these numbers dont level out soon, i think well start seeing some very juicy lines causing ppl to buy rl's instead of ml's, giving vegas the advantage again

 

[JimmyJet]

My early morning reads give us all unders on the totals side but a mixture of fav and dogs ML. Really appreciate the research you do Hoosiers and am incorporating into my systems the benefit of whay you are teaching to sucess wagering....thanks a lot!

 

[buffettgambler]

Up $4290 is the largest profit by a wide margin over any month the past 5 years.

Which begs the question:

Do you play the law of averages and fade the favorites the last week of the month?

Also it should be noted that the UNDER is at a high as well.[/quote]


Law of averages? A typical gamblers fallacy is assuming regression to the mean implies results below to the mean instead of the actual nature of results towards the mean. Fading due to the law of averages is mathematically void.

If you are suggesting the market may be starting to overcompensate for favorites or bookmakers are starting to inflate favorites due to recent performances, and fading artificial inflation due to short term results, then that is another story.

 

[roc18]

Teams with lines higher or equal to -200 are on an 18-0 run going into today

 

[thatoneguy]

Law of averages? A typical gamblers fallacy is assuming regression to the mean implies results below to the mean instead of the actual nature of results towards the mean. Fading due to the law of averages is mathematically void.

If you are suggesting the market may be starting to overcompensate for favorites or bookmakers are starting to inflate favorites due to recent performances, and fading artificial inflation due to short term results, then that is another story.

Well said

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Crazy. Favorites appear to be heading towards an 11-4 night and are up nearly $6000 on the month.

Not a good month for dog backers. Wonder how the books are doing.

 

[midman2161]

I have a feeling they are getting slaughtered because at least from what I have seen there has been nowhere near enough "sharp"/dog money to make up for the heavy money usually associated with favorites. And even then the sharps are taking the favorites because hitting is down and the elite pitchers and teams are able to go out there and shut down inferior lineups

 

[tarheelblue86]

i feel like this was the same case for last year's college and pro football seasons. seems like most of the spread's getting hammered by the public were hitting at a rediculous rate.

 

[midman2161]

With football it started that way but the books made back in the end because it is very easy to tighten those lines.. they cant do that in baseball because the point spreads are always the same even or 1.5 all they can do is jack up the prices on favs like they did with Beckett tonight to try to discourage betters but even then from what I saw the Sox still got pounded

 

[midman2161]

They would need a system where pitchers get assigned point spreads like Beckett would have been like -3.5 runs tonight that is the only way they could turn the tables back in their favor during a season like this

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Favorites ended the month 241-138 and +4795 for the most profitable month since 2004.

 

[midman2161]

looks like things are really starting to come back to earth