Favorites have an innate advantage when betting college basketball

[JustinCruise]

Because of the absurd late game fouling.

Obviously this doesn't apply to 17-25 point favorites. But for moderate favs, there is a clear advantage because teams will foul down 7 with 20 seconds left etc

 

[CHOPTALK]

Lol

 

[PatsFanatic]

Yeah that worked out great for all of us Duke backers last night

 

[JustinCruise]

Yeah that worked out great for all of us Duke backers last night

There are exceptions of course.

But generally speaking it works as an advantage

 

[Bruins4Life]

Can't recall the game, but had it happen last year. I was giving 9 or so points. With less than a minute left, I was up 4. My team won by 10, hitting 6 straight free throws, while the opponent missed shot after shot, and continued to foul.

 

[JustinCruise]

Can't recall the game, but had it happen last year. I was giving 9 or so points. With less than a minute left, I was up 4. My team won by 10, hitting 6 straight free throws, while the opponent missed shot after shot, and continued to foul.

yea the fouling can get ridiculous. I know I have seen many teams foul down double digits with under a minute left

 

[ScottL]

What about Min-Mich St just the other day? Mich St misses 2 FTs to force OT, laying 10.5-11. Then in the OT they go 13-14 from the Line.
But these idiots from MIN just won't stop. Miss down 9 with .27 left, FOUL! Miss down 11 with .12 left, AGAIN THEY FOUL - WHY!!!!

 

[JustinCruise]

What about Min-Mich St just the other day? Mich St misses 2 FTs to force OT, laying 10.5-11. Then in the OT they go 13-14 from the Line.
But these idiots from MIN just won't stop. Miss down 9 with .27 left, FOUL! Miss down 11 with .12 left, AGAIN THEY FOUL - WHY!!!!

my point exactly

 

[bigtendominator]

Thanks for this info, glad the bookmakers haven't thought about this. Now, should we bump the "THIS IS IU" thread?

 

[PatsFanatic]

Thanks for this info, glad the bookmakers haven't thought about this. Now, should we bump the "THIS IS IU" thread?

Is IU going to win tonight?

 

[JustinCruise]

Is IU going to win tonight?

Hell no.

Even if IU had a better team then wisconsin (which they don't) Bo has Creans number

 

[PatsFanatic]

Hell no.

Even if IU had a better team then wisconsin (which they don't) Bo has Creans number

Yeah but I bet Wisky already so IU definitely has a chance....

 

[JustinCruise]

Yeah but I bet Wisky already so IU definitely has a chance....

We already got blown out on our home court by mich st and i'm expecting the same thing here

 

[Akillies]

wouldnt it be included in the line?

 

[CHOPTALK]

If the line is -7 on the favorite and the favorite wins by 8 the people who bet on the favorite at -7 has an innate advantage over the people who took the dog at +7.
Obviously this does not apply to favorites that are favored by 7 points or more when they only win by 6. In that case the people who took the dog at +7 have the innate advantage.

And this applies to both college and the NBA and even football to.

 

[DNoonan]

can't it work both ways though? what about the easy buckets a team that is down 10 gets in the last min plus when the other team is just trying not to foul...those can hurt you when you have a favorite, especially in college when more FT's are missed

 

[LoCalDallasGuy]

I think it goes both ways.

 

[BranFlakes]

IU line very fishy to me. Facts and history show Obvious Wisconsin cover, so why open at Wiscy minus 2? I bit on Indiana at plus 4.

 

[Illini]

Justin, you are a tool.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Yeah but I bet Wisky already so IU definitely has a chance....

face)(*^%