FAU/MTSU with analysis

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Florida Atlantic +1.26 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
The good news from a wagering standpoint here is that both these teams are 1-3 and both have not looked very good. As a result of that, the Owls are a slight underdog when in fact, they should be favored. You might also read about Owls QB Rusty Smith stats this season that do not look good on paper, as he’s hit on only 61-133 for a completion rate of 45%. However, the Owls played at Michigan St, arguably one of the finest defenses in the country, and Smith went 8-34 in that game. Throw that one out and his stats look a whole lot better. Last year he had a QB rating of 141, threw 32 TD’s and compiled over 3600 yards through the air. The Owls also have played at #11 Texas, UAB, and at Minnesota. So, make no mistake about it, Rusty Smith can play and he has a very decent running game to compliment the passing game. Remember, these Owls were heavy favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference and they very likely will, as they have the most talent in this conference and it might not be close. They return a ton of starters and there are no excuses for this one. The Blue Raiders have a win against Maryland, which definitely has influence on this number and they also hung tough with Kentucky and that, too, has some believing this team is pretty good. Think again, because they’re not. Both the Terps and Cats pulled a no-show and allowed the Blue Raiders to look better then they are. The Blue Raiders have virtually no running game, their defense is brutally awful and when a team did show up against them, they were torched, as Arkansas State racked up 440 yards against the Ble Raiders. Well, the Owls will show up too in this one and will very likely thump this inferior and beatable club. Play: Florida Atlantic +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Thank you for the writeup.

I've been studying this game as well. I'm leaning towards FAU. Both of these teams are towards the back of the Ncaa in alot of categories. I've been looking at things like red zone offense/defense, 3rd down conversions, Sacks allowed (FAU has allowed only 1 in 4 games vs major competition) and Net punting. All of that stuff is good and great to read but you just got to keep in mind that FAU has played some really good teams. I saw a inept kentucky offense(remember the louisville game) that MTSU played, I also saw Maryland before they pieced it together against CAL. I gotta give FAU the benefit of the doubt because of Texas, MSU and Minny on the schedule. Im not into teasers very much but teasing FAU and the under might not be a bad look.

GL
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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like this road dog to win outright as well - gl powerz
 

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Might as well add that the MSU game was pouring rain the entire game and his receivers dropped two TD's and a couple other good passes in the 30 min. that I watched the game. As long as FAU's receivers don't drop a ton of passes, I think they will put up some pts.
 
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This is an intriguing matchup with both teams having been on the losing end up against much tougher competition for the most part this year.

FWIW, I ended up on the other side-and actually fairly large.

GL all :toast:
 

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do all these weekday games have something to do with "stay at home week" ? or "fatten your wallet week" ?
 

Professional At All Times
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Very nice write-up Sherwood. Best of luck tonight and the rest of the season. :103631605
 

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[/color]

:missingteYou must be drinking some strong kool-aid!


Sherwood, nothing but respect man but MSU doesn't have one of the finest defenses in the big ten let alone the country. They are not a good defensive team. FAU couldn't do anything cuz the FAU/MSU game was played in terrible conditions.
 

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