Fantasy Football News, Info, Articles 2016/17

[HacheMan]

Top fantasy football streaming options for Week 1

Ken DaubeJim McCormick


Each week, ESPN fantasy analysts Ken Daube and Jim McCormick will sift through the deeper options at each position with an eye on identifying streaming fantasy commodities with valuable matchups to consider.
Did you draft Tom Brady and need a capable fill-in for this first week of fantasy football competition? Or did someone get DeAngelo Williams before you could handcuff your selection of Le'Veon Bell? We have some choice names to consider for those seeking players who are widely available at each position.


Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Ryan may not have had much respect among the fantasy community on draft day, as he placed 21st among all quarterbacks in terms of average draft position, but his Week 1 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers presents great value. In away games last season, the Bucs allowed an average stat line of 288 passing yards, 2 TDs and more than 19 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. That aligns with Ryan's performance in his last four home games against the Buccaneers, when he has averaged 291 passing yards with a 9:1 TD:INT ratio. - KD


Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: Standard league investors in ESPN leagues are finding Stafford well into the QB2 mix as the 15th quarterback off the board on average. Stafford was second in the league in completion percentage (70.0) and posted 19 touchdowns to just two interceptions over the final eight games. Now the team is looking to up the pace on offense, as Stafford completed all six of his attempts to Golden Tate and Marvin Jones for 108 yards out of the no-huddle in the preseason, per Pro Football Focus. The Colts are missing several starters on an already suspect defensive roster, namely top cover corner Vontae Davis. With a blend of efficiency, pace and favorable matchup factors, Stafford is well-positioned to produce QB1 results in Indy this weekend. - JM



Running backs

James White, New England Patriots: Many people project the Pats to rely on a power running attack behind LeGarrette Blount, as Jimmy Garoppolotakes the reins under center. That doesn't align with how the Patriots typically attack aggressive defenses. Look for the Patriots to feature White on screen and swing passes while also sending him on underneath and wheel routes (much like they utilized Shane Vereen in Super Bowl XLIX). Since the Arizona Cardinals allowed the sixth-most yards per reception to opposing running backs last season, this could be a dream scenario for a deep play at this position. - KD

Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens: While his stock is surely rising, West's average draft position is still 132 overall and 44th among backs in ESPN leagues. Even with Justin Forsett rejoining the roster after being cut this past weekend, it became clear throughout the preseason West is the team's leading candidate for early-down duties. We can also assume West is the team's lead back in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios, given the profiles of the pass-catching backs on the depth chart. Up first in West's revival season is theBuffalo Bills, a team that will be without its top interior defensive lineman, who already ceded a generous 2.63 yards before contact per rush to tailbacks last season, sixth most in the NFL. Don't be surprised if West, who is available in nearly half of ESPN leagues, is a top waiver addition this time next week. - JM


Wide receivers

Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens: Aiken was severely undervalued on draft day, as he was the 56th wide receiver taken off the board. In his last eight games, he has 50 catches and 611 yards. He posted those numbers despite playing those games with four different quarterbacks: Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Jimmy Clausen and Ryan Mallett (each started two games). With Flacco returning under center and only the 37-yard old Steve Smith Sr. as competition for targets, Aiken shouldn't just be on your start list for this week, but for the whole season. - KD

Mike Wallace, Baltimore Ravens: I'm interested in picking on this seemingly fallible Bills defense to start the season. Buffalo allowed the seventh-most yards per completion and the ninth-most yards and touchdowns to receivers in 2015. Without an established pass rusher beyond Jerry Hughes on the front seven, and with a patchwork secondary in place, this is a prime position to have shares of the Ravens' volume-driven passing game. Flacco raved about Wallace throughout the summer, and while that's a trip down #NarrativeStreet, he also peppered him with targets in the preseason. As the 60th receiver off the board on average and available in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues, Wallace is a widely available asset to consider for Week 1. - JM
Tight ends

Virgil Green, Denver Broncos: Gary Kubiak-led offenses have typically taken advantage of the tight end position, and this season, that points to Green being a productive member of the Broncos' offensive attack. While it's unlikely that you'll need someone at this position this early, as the only tight ends who are projected to miss Week 1 are Ladarius Green and Tyler Eifert, keep an eye on Thursday night's contest and how many opportunities Green receives. He could be a solid sleeper for the rest of the season and is worth stashing just in case. - KD

Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts: Allen could return to, and even improve upon, his solid 2014 numbers now that Coby Fleener and his flowing locks are in New Orleans. Allen ranked seventh among tight ends in grading on Pro Football Focus in 2014 (min. 50 percent of team's snaps) and finished ninth at the position in targets within 10 yards of the goal line that season. The Colts will trend pass-heavy given the lack of depth and play making in the backfield, plus a suspect defense in place, thus Allen's expected uptick in snaps should also come with increased routes and targets. The Lions, meanwhile, allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends last season. - JM
D/STs

Detroit Lions: If there are two truths about the Colts' offense, they areAndrew Luck is a phenomenal quarterback and their offensive line is so porous, it makes Luck look pedestrian. Look for the Lions' defensive line, featuringHaloti Ngata and Ezekiel Ansah, to get consistent backfield penetration. This should result in multiple sacks and a likely pressure-based turnover, making the Lions' defense an under-the-radar streaming play this week. - KD

Tennessee Titans: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lists the Titans-Vikings game with the week's lowest implied point total. This is quite impressive in a week with the Cleveland Browns facing a raw rookie signal caller. This low total, combined with the likely presence of Shaun Hill behind center, drives contrarian interest in the Titans' aggressive defense -- a group led by legendary coordinator Dick LeBeau. The Titans were second in the league in 2015 in a unique stat termed "QB contact percentage," which weighs the rate of hits and sacks. The Titans were third in blitz rate, sending added pressure on 43.1 percent of opponent dropbacks. The Titans are being drafted 29th on average among D/ST groups and owned in fewer than two percent of ESPN leagues, but they could make for a rewarding streaming option in redraft and fine punt play for daily fantasy this week. - JM


Individual defensive players

Eric Kendricks, LB, Minnesota Vikings: Facing the Titans' run-heavy "exotic smashmouth" scheme should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities for this up-and-coming every-down linebacker, who was regularly drafted outside the top 15 at the position this summer. Going a bit deeper, Oakland's Ben Heeney earned the green dot as the team's defensive quarterback and should see three-down exposure in the Superdome this Sunday. - JM


Karl Joseph, DB, Oakland Raiders: Only Chip Kelly's Eagles produced more plays than the Saints over the past two seasons, and New Orleans leads the league in pass attempts over this stretch. Enter Joseph, a hard-hitting rookie safety taken in the first round out of West Virginia, who gets to face the snap-happy Saints this Sunday. Joseph will work in the box against the run and in coverage, offering rare tackle upside for a rookie defensive back. Going a bit deeper, Denver's veteran safety T.J. Ward has played some nickel linebacker looks in the preseason, which suggests we could see him near double-digit tackles against the Panthers' run-heavy attack. - JM


Brandon Graham, DL, Philadelphia Eagles: The Browns have seen their offensive line erode over the offseason without much investment in replenishing talent, while the Eagles fortified their front with Jim Schwartz's aggressive Wide 9 arrangement. Graham has always been a capable edge menace, but now he should see the snaps and scheme that fit his profile. I also like shares of teammates Connor Barwin and Vinny Curry in this one. - JM

 

[HacheMan]

Love/Hate for Week 1: The other side of the 'Fantasy Life'

Matthew BerryESPN Senior Writer


I don't know, man. I honestly don't know.
When you give advice for a living, as I do, that's what we call "a less than ideal answer."
You're always supposed to know. Sometimes you're right, sometimes you're wrong, but you're not supposed to say "I don't know."
This is the start of my 17th year of writing a weekly "Love/Hate" column, giving advice for the upcoming week in fantasy football. And usually the first column of the year is a fun one, full of hope and excitement for the upcoming season. But if you've looked at the news at any point in the past year ... it has been a tough one for a lot of people and there are a lot of problems that don't seem to have a lot of answers anytime soon. And while some problems are very public and affect a great deal of people, there are also very personal tragedies that our friends, family and neighbors have to deal with every day.
I'd like you to meet Scott.
Scott is awesome. He's a military man, currently in his 14th year of service for our country, a master sergeant in the Air Force. Thirty-seven years old, Scott is also a family man. Married to Erica, they have a big family. Anton is 16, Xander is 12 and the twins, Layla and Andrew, are 2.
He's also one of us.

"I started playing fantasy football my fourth year in the military," Scott wrote to me. "As a way to get to know the guys in my new unit. I immediately became obsessed and it wasn't long until I was routinely called the 'fantasy guy.'"


When I tell you Scott is one of us, I mean it. Obsessed doesn't begin to describe him. "I was in eight leagues and every free non-family moment (in addition to the kids, my wife was pregnant with our fifth) was spent managing those teams. I loved it."

Everything was going great for Scott until about Week 12 last year, when he learned that he and Erica's unborn child had a serious birth defect and was given only a 50 percent chance to live.
Scott continued: "Fantasy football became my escape. ... My days were spent shuttling my wife and 2-year-old twins between doctors and hospitals, running tests and taking scans. My nights, after I comforted my wife to sleep, were spent scouring the waiver wires and proposing trades on my dimly lit phone. It was all I could do to keep myself sane."
It was weeks of dread and searching before there was some hope. Scott and Erica heard of an experimental procedure that could potentially save their child's life. Initial tests all went well; they were prime candidates to be accepted in a clinical trial. But as their hope was rekindled, they were dealt another devastating blow. A final test revealed another genetic disorder in the unborn child, a rare condition of which there had been only 274 known infant cases. That, combined with the first diagnosis, meant certain death.
"As you can imagine, we were crushed. We returned our crib ... and started looking at caskets."

Upon hearing the diagnosis, Scott and Erica were told they could terminate the pregnancy if they wanted to. They did not.

And so, as Scott tended to his still pregnant wife and his four other kids trying to grasp this tragedy, he expressed how important fantasy became to him. "It was my only normalcy," he wrote. "I never let fantasy football come before guiding my family through this tragedy, of course, but, honestly, it was the only non-dying-baby-related thoughts I had."
Scott went eight-for-eight in his leagues in terms of making the playoffs and won three championships. And soon after that, his son was born. Most unborn children with this disorder don't make it full term but young Kevin was a fighter. He made it full term and was born in March.


"After giving birth, Erica had to be rushed to immediate surgery and my son was handed over to me. Kevin lived for 43 minutes and died in my arms.
"Erica came out of surgery successfully and my wife, my kids and I buried my son. We have shed countless tears. It has been and continues to be a painful time for myself and my family. As the months dragged on, I was looking forward to the simplicity of fantasy football toreturn. However, now that it is here ... I couldn't seem to care less. I am emailing you because in my opinion you are the best source when it comes to the living the 'fantasy life.'

"I quit six of my leagues, including three I was the commissioner of. At this time I am usually making my own rankings but this year I just grabbed the first cheat sheet I could find. I went down to just the two sentimental leagues that I have been in for years and even then I just don't get the happiness I always got before. So that, sir, is my question. ... How do I get it back?"

I don't know, man.
I've had this email for more than two weeks and I've thought of little else since I got it. And I don't know.
I spoke with Scott on the phone for more than an hour.
And I don't know.
I can't imagine living the hell they did. I feel bad and I send condolences and well wishes and heartfelt thoughts and blah blah blah. None of it matters. Words are inadequate. I can't pretend to fathom what Scott and his family are going through. What any family that has to go through that is dealing with.
No parent should ever outlive their child.

One of the things I love about fantasy football is that it is a distraction. A hobby. Its own self-contained little universe that exists (mostly) away from the real world, and the issues and problems that brings. Fantasy football is something that, if we are doing it right, we do for fun. A helluva lot of fun, actually.
And I am so happy to hear that, if even for a brief moment last season, it was able to provide a little relief for Scott, allowing him to be there for his family when they needed him the most.

But to answer your question, Scott, about how you get that feeling back ... here's the best answer I got.
I don't think you do. At least not initially.

Look, the reason you don't care about fantasy football right now is because you shouldn't. You are grieving, and rightfully so. Like I said, I can't begin to imagine what you are going through but I have no doubt if I ever had to go through anything close to that I would desperately look for something, anything to get my mind off it. I am by no means an expert in this (or many things, to be frank) so I strongly recommend talking with a professional therapist if you aren't already. For you and your entire family.
But you asked for my opinion, so here it is: You need to grieve. You need to come to emotional grips with what you've been through and then, and only then, do things return to at least somewhat normal. When that will be, I don't know, but when you are ready, fantasy football will still be there for you, my friend. And that's when you'll get that feeling back. When you're ready. And not before.
Rest in peace, Kevin.

I'm looking forward to a great season and I can't wait to have fun, but as we embark on our 17-week journey, I want you to take a moment and think about Scott, Erica and Kevin. Because as much as I love our little game, it is a game of passion. People do and will get very passionate about players, games, trades and other league mates. And while I love that passion, realize that what's important to you about fantasy football may not be what is important about fantasy football to someone else, you know?
Which brings us, meandering slowly, into the first Love/Hate of the year. Hopefully by now you know the drill. This is not a "start/sit" column but rather a column about players who I feel will exceed or fall short of their normal expectations. For specific answers on player-vs.-player start/sit questions, please consult my rankings. This year, I will also be doing PPR ranks, with Week 1 being published shortly. And as a company man, a reminder that I will be on Fantasy Football Now every Sunday, 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2 up until kickoff. Tune in!

Finally, keep in mind that while I try to avoid obvious players for either "Love" or "Hate" the fact is that those can be helpful, especially for those who play DFS. I hope everyone gets what they need out of this column either way.

Quarterbacks I love in Week 1

Aaron Rodgers, Packers: Rodgers is coming off a bad season (for him), the Jags are really improved and the game is in Jacksonville. Yeah, yeah, I get it. And this is a tougher game than you'd think for Green Bay. But whatevs, dude. Rodgers has multiple passing touchdowns or 300 yards passing in 12 of his past 13 regular-season games with Jordy Nelson on the field. Jordy's back, and so am I.

Drew Brees, Saints: The Raiders are another very improved defense from the offseason, and I don't care. Brees is at home. In the past decade, there have been only five times a QB has scored at least 200 fantasy points at home in one season: MVP Aaron Rodgers in 2014, MVP Cam Newton in 2015, Drew Brees in 2011, Drew Brees in 2013, Drew Brees in 2015. Death, taxes and you start Drew Brees at home. Shootout city.


Matthew Stafford, Lions: Sunday's game against the Colts has a high projected point total, according to the folks in Vegas, and I think they're right. You can't corral a Cooter, you can only hope to contain it. The Colts get Cootered in this one, as the Lions won't run, but will throw, throw, throw against an Indy team that will struggle to generate pressure on Stafford.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Big Ben's going to have his way here, using a spread passing game, bunch formations, crossing routes and pick plays while attacking the middle of a mediocre Washington defense. Expect a lot of screens and yards after the catch on short routes by Pittsburgh's wide receivers. I hope I'm wrong, but as a Washington fan, I'm nervous Josh Norman gets a bit exposed here, and given the Redskins' struggles in generating a pass rush, Roethlisberger should have all night to throw.

Kirk Cousins, Redskins: Washington will struggle to run the ball and is unlikely to stop the Steelers as well, which means what, class? Come on now, you throw. They will throw a ton, especially in the middle of the field, whereJordan Reed should have a field day. See? Class, field day ... I got a whole theme going here. Cousins picks up where he left off last season in a Monday Night shootout.

Others receiving votes: No byes this week and only minimal injuries, but if you are in need or in a deeper league, yes, Robert Griffin III has learned how to slide. He has a cannon arm, talent around him to go get it, rushing yards and a nice matchup with a Philly team that gave up the second-most passing touchdowns last season. You could do worse, and let's face it, you probably have. ... The only fear Texans owners should have is that Houston gets up big and stops throwing, because otherwise, Brock Osweiler should have a strong debut against a Bears team that is devoid of talent on defense. Osweiler had 250 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago last year.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 1

Cam Newton, Panthers: It's hard to bench the No. 1 quarterback taken in most drafts, but this certainly is the lowest he'll be ranked all season, and he's only a contrarian play in daily. The Broncos gave up fewer than 12 points a game to opposing QBs last season and no rushing touchdowns to a quarterback, either. Newton will stay for the whole news conference this time, but expecting huge numbers on the road in Denver is unwise.

Philip Rivers, Chargers: One hundred twenty-two. That's how many consecutive pass attempts Rivers has against the Chiefs without a touchdown pass. The Chargers will try to establish the run here against a defense that is missing a few stars but is still formidable and allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. On the road in Arrowhead against a K.C. team that he failed to thro
w a TD against in two games last season, averaging less than 225 passing yards, puts Rivers well below where he was drafted in Week 1.
Andy Dalton, Bengals: On the road and without a lot of the weapons he has been used to in the passing game, the Red Rifle can be expected to play conservatively against a Jets defense that was top 10 in fewest passing yards allowed in 2015. No Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu on the field, and no Hue Jackson calling plays this year, so expect a bit of a learning curve here. Which is fine, but that doesn't mean he has to learn while starting for you now, does it?


Running backs I love in Week 1

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: As Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." The Giants spent the offseason upgrading a defense that last season was bottom-10 in limiting yards before contact per rush. And it may very well pay dividends. But not this week, as the Cowboys will ease Dak Prescott into service with an insane dose of Zeke - the personification of the aforementioned punch in the mouth -- behind the league's best offensive line. You know who just caught the Zeke-a virus? The New York Football Giants, that's who.


DeAngelo Williams, Steelers: The fantasy football equivalent of "smoke 'em while you got em," this is gonna be a fun three weeks while Le'Veon Bell is suspended.

Spencer Ware, Chiefs: With Jamaal Charles unlikely to play, Ware will not only be the man, he will be THE MAN. Every time this guy has gotten a shot he's produced. The four career games (including playoffs) in which Ware has gotten at least 10 touches, he has averaged 5.69 yards per carry, has scored in all four games and averaged more than 16 fantasy points a game. I like the matchup with San Diego, and the Chiefs' conservative game plan plays to Ware's strengths. Charcandrick West will work in some, but Ware is the guy you want.

Christine Michael, Seahawks: A bit of a gut call here since we don't know how much Thomas Rawls will play, but all signs seem to indicate that he will be eased back in and Michael will continue the momentum from the preseason with the majority of the work. And work is exactly what he will do against a Dolphins team that gave up the most points to opposing RBs last season. Seattle is the only team to run the ball 500 times in each of the past two seasons, and at home, with a big expected lead in the second half, watch Pete Carroll lean on Michael, who knows he has a small window to carve out a big role for himself.

Others receiving votes: I have a sneaky feeling that the Browns-Eagles game will be a shootout, more about no confidence in the defenses than awesome offense, but whatever. So I like the Browns' running backs here in a flex sort of way and, gut call here, I bet Isaiah Crowell punches one in. ... It's not easy to run on Arizona and last season, running backs caught 78.6 percent of their targets against the Cardinals, averaging 9.6 yards per catch, making James White pretty interesting to me. ... With limited pass-catchers available for Andy Dalton (and facing a tough secondary), I expect dump-off passes to be one way that Cincy moves the ball Sunday, making Giovani Bernard -- only 11 running backs had more touches AND more yards from scrimmage last year than Gio -- a nice play this week. ... Did you see this notebook from Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen? I thought the note about Darren Sproles being used in a similar role as Danny Woodhead was under Frank Reich in San Diego (Reich is now in Philly) was really interesting. Those in deeper PPR leagues or looking for a cheap DFS play should consider Sproles here in Carson Wentz's first start.

Running backs I hate in Week 1


Jeremy Hill, Bengals: One of the reasons I like Bernard is that the Jets' interior line is no joke. New York ranked as a top-five defense in terms of fewest rush attempts against, fewest yards per carry and fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. In close, they were even tougher last season, as the Jets allowed just four rushing touchdowns on 53 attempts inside the red zone, far and away the best rate of 2015. There's always the chance Hill gets into the end zone, of course, but this one sets up as a "Gio" game.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers:Twelve carries for 29 yards against the Broncos in the Super Bowl (he did score, so there's that to hang your hat on if you need to start him). Game flow will determine how much run he gets, but he's not really a part of the passing game (just 16 receptions last season) so his hope of doing damage is through Denver's defensive front. Better days ahead.

Arian Foster, Dolphins: Insert "30-year-old running back on the road against Seattle" analysis here.

Matt Jones, Redskins: Coming off an injury, Jones is expected to share the workload with preseason standout Robert Kelley (very much worth a stash, if available in your league) and third-down back Chris Thompson. The Steelers allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs last season and as I noted in the QB section above, I expect a lot of scoring this week. Jones needs to score here to be worth a start in standard leagues this week. How lucky do you feel?


Wide receivers I love in Week 1

Sammy Watkins, Bills: He's back, baby, and Tyrod Taylor is very aware of that. Rex Ryan is going to come into Baltimore and run LeSean McCoy right at them, setting up play-action, which plays to both Taylor's and Watkins' strengths. Despite missing three games last season, Watkins finished second among all receivers in fantasy points scored on passes thrown 15-plus yards. Because of Taylor's mobility and the Buffalo offensive line, expect a clean pocket for Taylor, and if you give him time, Watkins will get open. I'm not worried about "rust" or the injury.
Jordy Nelson, Packers: Speaking of being back, yes, the Jags are improved on defense, but Rome wasn't built in a day. Jacksonville allowed receivers to score multiple touchdowns or total 200-plus yards in the majority (nine) of games last season.

Doug Baldwin, Seahawks: Yes, a regression from last year is coming, but it's not starting this week. A new coaching staff should help some of the Dolphins' problems from last season, but not all of them. They gave up the fifth-most 40-yard pass plays (13) and had the fifth-highest completion percentage against on passes thrown 15-plus yards (47.8 percent). At home against a new defense, Baldwin picks up where he left off.
Others receiving votes: Willie Snead has been one my favorite mid-to-late-round targets this year and he'll pay dividends early in a high-scoring game, seeing much of his time against D.J. Hayden, a matchup he'll win more often than not. ... Podcast listeners know that Terrelle Pryor has been one of my (and Anita Marks') late-round targets. Snag him off the waiver wire now, because there's going to be a line come next Tuesday. ... You know what they say: You can take New Orleans out of the Rob Ryan business but you can't take the Rob Ryan out of New Orleans. Gimme some Michael Crabtree this week. ... And speaking of "No. 2 wideouts," I like Donte Moncrief to have the better Sunday than T.Y. Hilton. While they're already close for me in terms of ability, the talented Darius Slay should spend more of his time tangling with Hilton than Moncrief, making Moncrief the better play for me.
Wide receivers I hate in Week 1

Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers: On a snap count, still a little rusty, on the road, facing the team that gave up the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers? Yeah, that's not a top-20 play this week.

Kevin White, Bears: I get it, everyone is all hyped for him, but slow your roll. Or whoever has White in your league and is all proud of himself/herself should slow it down. White is still raw and I don't see him getting the best of Johnathan Joseph, whom he will see a lot of.


Michael Floyd, Cardinals: This feels like a David Johnson/Larry Fitzgeraldgame to me, as the Patriots were sixth best in completion percentage against on passes of 15 yards or more. One of the reasons they defend the deep ball so well is they get pressure on the QB, ranking second in sacks last season. Floyd is going to have some big weeks this year, but this doesn't shape up to be one of them.

DeVante Parker, Dolphins: Well, there's certainly plenty of room on the bandwagon these days. Parker is a bit banged up and has seemingly been passed on the depth chart by Kenny Stills, but he'll still get run, as Adam Gase will be above average in usage of three-wide sets. But on the road against the Seahawks is not the spot to experiment.


Tight ends I love in Week 1

Jordan Reed, Redskins: Yeah, yeah, a crazy-obvious name. Everyone is starting h

Coby Fleener, Saints: I know, I know. I heard the reports, too, about Fleener and Drew Brees not being in sync. And I heard all about the improved Oakland defense. But I want as much of the Raiders-Saints game as I can this week, so I am putting Fleener in here just to tell you to ignore all that, as the Raiders gave up a score to tight ends on one of every 6.5 receptions in 2015. Last season, Fleener had three double-digit scoring efforts despite splitting TE duties withDwayne Allen in an underachieving Colts offense. Now he has Brees, who gotBenjamin Watson career highs of 73 catches, 800 yards and 6 TDs last season, and no competition for snaps.

Others receiving votes: When I say I want as much of the Oakland-New Orleans game as I can get, I mean Clive Walford as well. ... Jason Witten always kills the Giants and has a rookie QB who will be looking for short passes in the middle of the field. ... In seven games last season with Blaine Gabbert at QB,Vance McDonald was on a pace to be a top-10 tight end. They have a connection and while the Rams have a good defense, they're not the '85 Bears. Gabbert has to throw to someone and that someone is Vance McDonald (and Torrey Smith). ... You can't teach 6-foot-7 and that's exactly how tall Jesse James of the Steelers is. He'll score on Monday night against Washington, because everyone is going to score on Monday night.


Tight ends I hate in Week 1

Antonio Gates, Chargers: The best defense against tight ends last year was the Chiefs (opponents completed only 54.5 percent of passes thrown to TEs against them), and you know I feel the Chargers will go conservative here in the passing game. Gates is going to need to score to be worth anything this week.



Jimmy Graham, Seahawkson't get cute. You need to see him first, if he even plays. For all their faults last season, the Dolphins were actually a top-10 defense in defending the tight end.

Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers, Packers: One of them will probably have a solid game, but I have no idea which it will be. We need to see how this duo splits up snaps before we can trust one as a starting option.

And that's all we have space for this week. Thanks, as always, to Thirsty Kyle Soppe of ESPN Fantasy for his help, and good luck in Week 1!

 

[HacheMan]

Key fantasy football injury updates for Week 1


Stephania Bell
ESPN Senior Writer


Injury concerns regarding players heading into the Sunday and Monday games can be critical. Each Saturday, this entry will be dedicated to those who appear on the official weekly NFL game status injury report and how their status may effect fantasy teams.

For those who may be new to this blog: Injury reports provide some insight to a player's status. The NFL requires teams to submit practice injury reports several times a week, identifying the body part that is involved in the injury. This year there has been a change in the language of injury reporting, per the league office. The most notable change is the removal of the probable designation. For more detailed information on the changes and what they mean, click here.

Early in the week, the practice injury reports indicate whether a player did not practice, was limited in practice or was a full participant in practice. On Fridays, all teams file a game status injury report assigning one of the following designations: questionable, doubtful or out. The designations listed here reflect the injury reports filed with the league office Friday evening. Teams playing Monday night do not have to issue their designations until Saturday. The explanation for each designation is as follows.


Out: This is the easy one: The guy's not playing Sunday.

Questionable (Q): This remains the most dreaded player designation. By definition it means a player is “uncertain to play.” How uncertain is uncertain? There is no percentage or measurement scale leaving this classification rather vague. Whether a player ends up active or inactive often comes down to a game-time decision based on how he feels on game-day morning or how he performs during warm-ups. Final inactives are due 90 minutes before kickoff.

Doubtful (D): The doubtful designation means a player is unlikely to play that week. Rarely does a player labeled as doubtful end up playing, unless he experiences a major turnaround before game time.

Each week in the Saturday blog, we run down a list of key fantasy players, by position, who appear in the Friday injury report along with the injured body part as listed on the report, player status and any relevant developments or insight. The primary fantasy positions are covered (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end).
This year, at the end of each positional section, there is a subgroup of players, “Players Off Game Status Injury Report.” The probable tag no longer exists, so players who would have been listed as probable in previous years are now simply removed from the report. This means there will be players who appear in the practice injury reports during the week but will not appear on the game status report Friday since they are presumed active for game day. They are included in this blog so that fantasy owners can see where players who were on the practice injury report during the week have been upgraded in advance of the games.

At the end, key fantasy players listed Friday as "Out" for the week's games will appear as a group.


Good luck in Week 1, everyone!
Quarterbacks

Players Off Game Status Injury Report:
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, right shoulder: When Luck appeared on the injury report as a limited participant because of a sore shoulder, there was reasonable cause for concern. After all, Luck dealt with a shoulder injury last year that caused him to miss two games and seemingly affected his play even after he returned. The Colts indicated the limited practices Wednesday and Thursday were a proactive move and Luck was upgraded to full practice Friday. Coach Pagano later said, “Andrew is fine,” adding that he would rest Luck and others based on past history. The bottom line is that Luck was removed from the injury report and is expected to start on Sunday.

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs, knee, (D): Charles was limited at practice throughout the week, hardly a surprise after coach Andy Reid said two weeks ago that Charles was still, “getting trust in the leg.” The doubtful tag is a strong indicator that Charles will sit out this week and it will be a situation to monitor going forward. Spencer Ware is expected to get the start Sunday, according to ESPN.com NFL Nation Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher.
Jonathan Williams, Buffalo Bills, ribs, (Q): Williams exited the Bills’ final preseason game with a rib injury and was held out of practice the following week. He progressed to full participation daily this week and is expected to be available for Sunday’s game. Of course, LeSean McCoy, Reggie Bush and Mike Gillislee are also available, so his workload may be limited.
Chris Ivory, Jacksonville Jaguars, calf, (Q): Ivory was listed as a limited participant each day this week, showing up on the Wednesday injury report with a calf injury. While this episode doesn’t sound severe as Ivory didn’t miss any practice days, his history of lower extremity injuries makes every additional one a bit more worrisome. ESPN NFL Nation Jaguars reporter Mike DiRocco says he expects Ivory to play, noting head coach Gus Bradley said Friday the running back rotation with T.J. Yeldon would not be affected.
Isaiah Pead, Miami Dolphins, hamstring, (Q): Arian Foster is the starting running back in Miami and most of the conversation about potentially sharing carries with another Miami running back has involved Jay Ajayi. But if anyone shares carries with Foster this Sunday, it won’t be Ajayi, who was left home in Miami for non-injury reasons. That, in turn, places more importance on the health of Pead, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury recently. Pead was listed as a limited participant early in the week but upgraded to a full practice Friday. He could be available Sunday along with fellow backs Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake.
Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings, foot, (Q): McKinnon was limited Wednesday, sat out Thursday, then returned to limited practice on Friday. He is listed with a foot injury but it appears to be minor since Vikings head coachMike Zimmer said McKinnon “should be fine” for Sunday. McKinnon’s biggest value is as Adrian Peterson’s backup. Peterson is currently healthy, but it’s nice to know his insurance is intact.
Matt Jones, Washington Redskins, shoulder, (Q): Jones sustained an AC sprain in the second week of the preseason and was held out of action for the remaining two weeks. He was a full participant in practice this week and is expected to play. Despite practicing fully and despite all indications Jones will play, he is listed as questionable per the Saturday game status report. It may not be “certain,” but it would be a surprise if Jones did not suit up.


Players Off Game Status Injury Report:

Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks, illness: Everyone has been keeping an eye on Rawls’ activity throughout the preseason since his return from an ankle fracture. By all accounts, Rawls looked fast and explosive in practice and he did see some preseason Week 4 game action, albeit only two snaps. His appearance on the injury report was a bit of a surprise, but he was held out Thursday because of illness, not because of his ankle. On Friday he returned to practice and his removal from the injury report suggests he will be active on game day.
Perhaps more concerning for fantasy owners is his position -- No. 2 -- on the Seahawks running back depth chart. For the season opener, it appears Christine Michael will get the start. Michael has had an impressive preseason, but the question has always been whether he can carry that through to the regular season. This may be the weekend where we get the answer. ESPN.com’s NFL Nation Seahawks reporter Sheil Kapadia expects both backs to see action and notes that it’s a fluid situation. But with Rawls coming off a significant injury and a late week illness, he may not see heavy volume in Week 1, something coach Pete Caroll hinted at days ago.
Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs, elbow: West was on the injury report because of a minor elbow injury but practiced fully each day. His removal from the injury report indicates the Chiefs expect him to be active Sunday. Given Jamaal Charles’ doubtful status, it is likely to be the Spencer Ware and West show. Despite all the buzz about Ware, ESPN.com’s NFL Nation Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher points out that West played more snaps in the red zone in 2015. Ware is expected to start, but both backs will get work.


Wide Receivers

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions, ankle, (Q): Limited Wednesday, Tate turned in a full practice Thursday and Friday. Despite the uncertainty implied by the questionable tag, Tate -- who hasn’t missed a game since 2012 -- is expected to take the field on Sunday.
Kevin White, Chicago Bears, hamstring, (Q): White did not appear on the practice injury report until Thursday when he was listed as a limited participant. He remained limited on Friday and the concern appears legitimate when it comes to White’s questionable status for Sunday. His appearance in a regular season game has been much anticipated as White was sidelined for the entire 2015 season due to injury. After having a rod inserted in his lower leg to repair a tibial stress fracture, White spent the year recovering and preparing for 2016. That start may be delayed if White is deemed not ready to play and, if he does play, he won’t be operating at 100 percent health.
Jeff Janis, Green Bay Packers, hand, (Q): Janis underwent surgery to repair a fracture in his hand in mid-August and is still limited as he recovers. He was able to practice in full every day this week. (It should be noted the Packers did not actually hold practice on Thursday, so the listing for that day is an estimation of what Janis would have done.) If Janis does take the field Sunday, it may be in a limited role, but he is not a receiver fantasy owners should be targeting.
Chris Hogan, shoulder and Malcolm Mitchell, elbow, New England Patriots, (Q): Hogan didn’t play in the first week of the preseason because of his shoulder and is now listed as questionable heading into the Patriots’ opening night game. He was a full participant in practice throughout the week, however, and appears likely to play.
Mitchell, who suffered a dislocated left elbow in mid-August, was projected to miss approximately a month. He remained limited in practice each day this week and continues to wear a large brace on his arm to protect the elbow. While his presence in practice is encouraging, it’s not clear if he’ll be available Sunday night and it could come down to a game-time decision.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins, hamstring, (Q): Parker did not practice Wednesday or Thursday (although it’s worth noting the entire team was off Thursday). Parker did return on a limited basis Friday in Seattle with his teammates. Issues with his hamstrings have nagged at Parker since training camp; if he is at significant risk of re-injury, it’s tough to imagine him taking the field. This is a 4 p.m. ET kickoff; fantasy owners should make alternate plans.
Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings, quadriceps, (Q): Johnson was limited in practice with a quadriceps strain throughout the week, leaving his status uncertain for Sunday’s game. According to ESPN.com NFL Nation reporter Ben Goessling, Johnson said Wednesday he plans to play, but fantasy owners will want to check pregame inactives to be sure.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints, ankle, (Q): Thomas was added to the injury report Thursday as a limited participant with an ankle injury. He remained limited on Friday leading to his questionable designation.
Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins, achilles, (Q): Doctson has been gradually making improvements from his Achilles injury throughout the preseason. He recently began practicing with the team on a limited basis, but he was upgraded to full participation Saturday. Saturday workouts are typically light, so Doctson may not have convinced the team he is ready for primetime. Even if he does suit up, the chances of him seeing a full workload are slim.


Players Off Game Status Injury Report:

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons, ankle: Jones dealt with a minor ankle ailment in the preseason and remained on the practice injury report this week as he was held to a limited practice Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, Jones put in full practices. His removal from the injury report indicates he will play and on Friday coach Dan Quinn said Jones is “ready to go.”
Will Fuller, Houston Texans, hamstring: Fuller was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring ailment but was upgraded to full practice on Friday. The Texans are clearly confident enough in his health to remove him from the injury report and he is expected to be active.
Brandon Marshall, New York Jets, hip: Marshall was listed as limited in practice Wednesday but returned to full practice both Thursday and Friday. In the second half of the preseason he had been reportedly dealing with some hip soreness, but the team dismissed it as non-serious. This removal from the injury report supports that notion and Marshall is expected to play on Sunday.


Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks, knee, (Q): Graham practiced in full all week and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has said Graham will indeed play. What a terrific story for Graham, who sustained a torn patellar tendon last season, perhaps the most difficult injury for an NFL player to overcome. Graham did not play a single snap during the preseason, however, and this week marks his first full week of practice. Given that this will be his first game action, expectations for fantasy purposes should be tempered. That said, it’s easy to imagine Graham lining up in the red zone for a play designed to get him the ball in the end zone. Can anyone imagine a better way to come back than to make a play in the end zone, not only to punctuate his return to action with a score but to erase the memory of the spot where he sustained that devastating injury just last year? It could happen.
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions, ankle, (Q): Ebron was a full participant in practice from Wednesday through Friday, suggesting he will be active when the Lions face the Colts. When Ebron went down with an injury during the first week of training camp, there was concern that he had sustained something much more severe than an ankle sprain. Thankfully that was not the case, but he still missed the entire slate of preseason games as he recovered. ESPN.com NFL Nation reporter Michael Rothstein believes he will play in the season opener and could be an effective offensive weapon for quarterback Matthew Stafford against the Colts.
Dennis Pitta, finger and Maxx Williams, knee, Baltimore Ravens, (Q): Both tight ends were listed as full participants in each of the Ravens’ practices this week yet are listed as questionable. ESPN.com NFL Nation Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley wrote about Pitta’s anticipated return following two major hip injuries and a fractured finger, suggesting he is expected to take the field. No matter what amount he contributes in the stats department, Pitta’s return will be impressive after the odds were highly stacked against his ever returning to competition on a football field. As for Williams, he too is expected to play. It could be a tight end by committee game.


Players listed as OUT

This space is intended for a list of key players, not including those who have been moved to injured reserve status, who are officially listed as "Out" for the upcoming game.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots, hamstring: Gronkowski revealed quite a bit without saying much when he told reporters earlier this week that he was not 100 percent healthy. After injuring his hamstring in mid-August, Gronkowski has been restricted to limited practice. Aggravation of a hamstring injury now could cost the valued tight end multiple weeks later. Better to rest him and allow more time for healing. As Gronkowski said, “Taking this week by week.”
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys, back: No surprise here. Romo is out with a compression fracture in his low back. Dak Prescott gets the start and will continue to do so until further notice.
Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens, knee: Dixon is recovering from a sprained MCL and is expected to miss several weeks.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals, ankle: Eifert is still recovering from offseason ankle surgery and has said he is targeting a Week 4 return, although that timetable is not set in stone.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins, not injury related: The interesting fact here is that Ajayi is not missing this game due to injury. Either way, it’s Arian Foster to start at running back in Week 1.


Kendall Wright, WR,Tennessee Titans, hamstring:Wright is definitively out this week -- but he could be out for longer. A hamstring injury limited him early in training camp and shortly after he returned to practice he sustained a setback. Hamstring injuries are always tricky but warrant extra caution after a setback.
Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers, shoulder: Wheaton did not practice on Thursday and Friday because of a shoulder injury. Although Wheaton has referenced the injury as “minor,” ESPN.com NFL Nation reporter Jeremy Fowler reported earlier Wheaton was expected to be out Monday night and now it’s official.
Be sure to check out Fantasy Football Now, Sundays on ESPN2 at 11:00 a.m. ETfor last-minute inactives, rankings, injury impact and more!

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Best, worst wide receiver matchups for Week 1[/h]
ESPN INSIDER


We're in a new age in the NFL.
Elite wide receivers are lining up all over the offensive formation, including the slot. Only a handful of top-end corners are asked to shadow, and many of them play only on the perimeter.
By utilizing our play-by-play data, we can identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week.
Here are the receivers with the best and worst Week 1 matchups.
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To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.
[h=2]Advantageous matchups[/h]

Broncos WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sandersvs. Panthers CBs James Bradberry and Daryl Worley
Who? Josh Norman is in Washington, Charles Tillman retired and Bene Benwikere is expected to stick as Carolina's No. 3 or slot corner. This leaves a pair of rookies, second-rounder Bradberry and third-rounder Worley, as the Panthers' starting cornerbacks in Thursday's Super Bowl rematch with Denver. Yes, the Broncos' offense is unlikely to pack much punch with Trevor Siemianunder center, but common sense dictates that Gary Kubiak will test the rookie corners early and often.


The Panthers shadowed about half the time with Norman last year, but until one of the rookies separates himself, it's unlikely they'll go that direction early this year. Thomas and Sanders each ran 22 percent of their routes from the slot last year, so both will match up against Benwikere as well. This is a risky offense to be invested in, but Thomas and Sanders make for sneaky tournament plays in DFS against Carolina's inexperienced corners.

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Jets WR Eric Decker vs. Bengals CB Darqueze Dennard
The Jets had a fourth wide receiver on the field 51 percent of the time when passing last season. That was more than 10 times the league average and more than double the next-closest team (Arizona). Although Decker will work outside about one-third of the time, he will spend most of Sunday's game running routes against Dennard, who is the Bengals' primary slot corner, and some combination of Josh Shaw, Chris Lewis-Harris and Chykie Brown.
A 2014 first-round pick, Dennard was solid in coverage last season but allowed a ton of fantasy production. He surrendered 0.36 fantasy points per route, which was second-worst among corners expected to play a significant Week 1 role. With Brandon Marshall and one of the Jets' rookie receivers -- Robby Anderson, Jalin Marshall or Charone Peake -- matched up with Adam Jonesand Dre Kirkpatrick on the perimeter, expect Decker to see plenty of Dennard on the inside.

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Bills WR Sammy Watkins vs. Ravens CBs Jimmy Smith andShareece Wright
The Ravens tried to utilize Smith as a shadow corner early on last season, but it simply didn't work out. Following rough outings against Amari Cooper and A.J. Green, Smith primarily stuck to his side at right corner the rest of the season. Watkins, meanwhile, lined up wide to the left on 60 percent of his routes last year. If both teams follow a similar script in the Week 1 opener, Watkins and Smith will go head-to-head quite a bit.
Additionally, Watkins will run roughly one-quarter of his routes on the right side against Wright, who allowed 0.32 fantasy points per route last season, third-worst among corners expected to play a major role this week. Granted, Smith was better down the stretch last year, but this is still a very good matchup for Watkins. Expect Tyrod Taylor to keep him busy.

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Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Bears CB Tracy Porter
Usually when a team uses its top corner to shadow, it's bad news for the opposing wide receiver. That's not the case here. Porter was outmatched twice when asked to shadow Calvin Johnson (twice), Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs,DeSean Jackson, Demaryius Thomas and Amari Cooper last season.
Kyle Fuller (knee) is on the shelf, which leaves fourth-round pick Deiondre' Hall, Sherrick McManis and Bryce Callahan as the Chicago's other corners. This all but assures that Porter will be following around Houston's top offensive weapon. By the way, Porter (concussion) and Callahan (hamstring) are both questionable, so this is a game to monitor closely before kickoff.

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Lions WR Marvin Jones, Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin vs. TBA Colts cornerbacks
There are a few potential shootouts on the Week 1 slate, but the Detroit/Indianapolis showdown might get out of hand right off the bat. As if the Colts' defense wasn't suspect enough, standout corner Vontae Davis (ankle) is out and safety Clayton Geathers (foot) is doubtful.
Meanwhile, No. 2 corner Patrick Robinson (groin) and slot man Darius Butler(ankle) are questionable. If that trio is out, Antonio Cromartie, Darryl Morrisand Rashaan Melvin will be the team's corners. Needless to say, this is a game to feast on in fantasy. Jones and Tate are highly intriguing in all formats, and Boldin is a flex sleeper.

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[h=2]Tough matchups[/h]

Panthers WRs Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn Jr. vs. Broncos CBs Bradley Roby, Chris Harris Jr. andAqib Talib
Whereas Denver's receivers are sitting pretty in Thursday night's opener, Carolina's receivers will have their hands full. Denver shadowed quite a bit last season but did not do so during the playoffs, including the Super Bowl against Carolina. Of course, Benjamin did not play in that game. Normally, I might expect Talib, Denver's tallest corner, to shadow Benjamin, who is 6-foot-5, but Benjamin is expected to be on a pitch count. It's possible Talib follows one of whoever is on the field between Benjamin and Funchess. That would leave Ginn to face off with Roby and, in three-wide sets, Funchess against Chris Harris Jr. in the slot.
Denver's defense is already pretty good, and their top-end trio of corners is sure to make life difficult for Carolina's receivers. This is a situation to avoid where possible.

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Dolphins WR Kenny Stills vs. Seahawks CB Richard Sherman
We know two things about Sherman: He is really good at his job, and he rarely leaves his side of the field. Although Jarvis Landry suggested he could see Sherman in coverage this week, it's unlikely to play out that way. Last season, Sherman shadowed A.J. Green, Torrey Smith (twice), Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown and Michael Floyd. Each of those receivers primarily works on the perimeter. In fact, Sherman lined up in the slot only 5 percent of the time last year and lined up at left corner on 76 percent of the pass plays for which he was on the field.


Landry, meanwhile, lined up in the slot on 73 percent of his routes last season. He's probably safe from Sherman's coverage and will instead face off with DeShawn Shead, who struggled in coverage last season. Meanwhile, with DeVante Parkerunlikely to play, Stills will be Miami's top perimeter receiver, which means he'll see a lot of Sherman and Jeremy Lane. Stills is well off the fantasy radar this week, but Landry should be in lineups and is a sneaky DFS tournament play.

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Patriots WR Julian Edelman vs. Cardinals CBs Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu
Peterson is one of the league's rare cornerbacks who shadows nearly every week. Despite usually facing off with the opposing team's top receiver last season, Peterson was one of the league's most dominant performers at the position. Of course, because Mathieu is so terrific in the slot, Peterson only traveled inside 7 percent of the time last year.
Edelman's routes are split pretty evenly between the inside and outside, which means he'll probably see Peterson when he's on the perimeter and Mathieu in the slot. It doesn't get much tougher than that. Especially with Tom Brady out, Edelman is a scary proposition in season-long leagues and a must-avoid in DFS.

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Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin vs. Chargers CB Jason Verrett
One of the game's top young corners, Verrett shadowed in nearly all of his 2015 outings. That included following Maclin on 21 of his 32 routes in Week 11 and 21 of his 30 routes in Week 14. Although he enjoyed a healthy target share, Maclin totaled nine receptions for 97 yards and no touchdowns during those two games.
Maclin is a high-volume target, which will bail out his owners to an extent, especially in PPR leagues, but he certainly needs to be downgraded and avoided in DFS cash games this week.

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Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Patriots CB Malcolm Butler; Cardinals WR Michael Floyd vs. Patriots CB Logan Ryan
New England is one of the more creative teams in the league when it comes to shadowing opposing wide receivers. Butler, the team's top corner, generally aligns opposite the opponent's shiftiest receiver. Ryan, meanwhile, plays all over the field but will often shadow bigger/slower targets. Examples of this include Butler shadowing Emmanuel Sanders and Ryan shadowing Demaryius Thomas in the playoffs last year. In earlier games, Butler shadowed Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, and Odell Beckham Jr., while Ryan was on Rishard Matthews, Brandon Marshall and Rueben Randle.
That being said, I expect Butler to work against Cardinals slot receiver Fitzgerald in this one. That would leave Ryan to handle Floyd on the perimeter.John Brown would then figure to see a lot of Justin Coleman or rookie Cyrus Jones. Butler and Ryan are both very good, which should help New England neutralize two of Arizona's top offensive weapons. Both receivers should be downgraded, but only slightly.

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Other projected shadow situations

• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant: Trufant didn't shadow until Week 15 last season, but rounded out the year by shadowing Allen Robinson, Ted Ginn and Brandin Cooks.
  
• Jaguars WR Allen Robinson vs. Packers CB Sam Shields: Green Bay tended to shadow when the opponent had a clear superstar No. 1 receiver last year. Examples included Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant and Amari Cooper.
  
• Bengals WR A.J. Green vs. Jets CB Darrelle Revis: Revis shadowed most top opposing wide receivers last year and is a near lock to follow Green in Week 1.
  
• Steelers WR Antonio Brown vs. Redskins CB Josh Norman: This one is not as clear, because Norman shadowed about half the time last year, but Washington did not shadow as a team.
  
• Falcons WR Julio Jones vs. Buccaneers CB Brent Grimes: Tampa Bay used Sterling Moore to shadow Jones in Week 13 last season. Grimes spent time shadowing the likes of Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant while in Miami last year.

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Sneaky good matchups

• Chiefs WR Chris Conley vs. Chargers CB Brandon Flowers
  
• Texans WRs Braxton Miller and Will Fuller vs. Bears CBs Bryce Callahan and Deiondre' Hall
  
• Cardinals WR John Brown vs. Patriots CB Justin Coleman

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Four downs: How Keenan Allen's injury impacts Chargers' offense[/h]Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer

ESPN INSIDER


A rough Sunday for the San Diego Chargers is likely to get officially worse Monday if/when the results of Keenan Allen's MRI show whether he has suffered a torn ACL in his right knee. The underdog Chargers were doing so well in Kansas City, jumping out to a 21-3 lead but then just before halftime Allen, a dynamic wide receiver selected in the fourth round of ESPN average live draftscrumbled to the ground without being hit. Fantasy owners have unfortunately become accustomed to this frustration and despite Allen’s importance, his loss can be overcome.
The Chargers ended up losing to the Chiefs in overtime, which is painful enough, and fantasy owners are likely in considerably better position to replace Allen in their lineups. Quarterback Philip Rivers targeted diminutive veteranTravis Benjamin eight times and he caught each of the passes, and he remains available in roughly a third of ESPN standard leagues, a wise pickup moving forward and potential WR2. While nobody on this team seems capable of providing quite what Allen supplied, Benjamin possesses upside. Don’t look for him to threaten 100 receptions, as Allen might have, but he can work from the slot or the outside and break big plays.
Taking a chance on Tyrell Williams, who caught two passes as an undrafted rookie in 2015 and hauled in 38- and 33-yarders Sunday, also seems wise. He’s readily available and should inherit a valuable starting role. Williams is 6-foot-4 and more than 200 pounds, and while he seems a bit raw, the Chargers don’t have many options, even if they look to the waiver wire. Dontrelle Inman is 6-3 and contributed 35 receptions last season, though like Benjamin his role has generally been from the slot. Perhaps we’ll see more of rookie tight end Hunter Henry working in tandem with grizzled veteran Antonio Gates, or maybe the Chargers will simply run the football much more. Rivers was far less effective sans Allen, and it’s fair to say his stock drops further from top-10 season consideration.
There was good news before the Allen injury, as sophomore running backMelvin Gordon scored his first two NFL touchdowns, after somehow neglecting to find the end zone on 184 rushing attempts as a touted rookie. Gordon was obviously going to improve to some degree this year, but it was a bit disturbing for his value how he was used in the second half as the Chiefs were coming back. Danny Woodhead dominated the snaps and touches. Woodhead ended up with more rushing attempts and yards and seven targets. Gordon is simply not a factor in the receiving game. It’s nice to see him emerge as a potential 1,000-yard running back and score touchdowns, but Woodhead isn’t going away. The case can be made for both Gordon and Woodhead as weekly RB2 plays, though.
If you’re looking outside the Chargers for receiving aid this week, there will be no shortage of available choices, and we’ll cover that more in depth at ESPN Fantasy on Tuesday. Using 50 percent owned as a general barometer, and in order of standard fantasy points Sunday, there’s Mike Wallace, Eddie Royal,Davante Adams, Nelson Agholor, Quincy Enunwa, Brandon LaFell, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, Seth Roberts, Tajae Sharpe, Cole Beasley and Terrelle Pryor. Each scored six or more standard points. Sharpe and Hogan are the names I’m recommending, then San Diego’s Williams. Sharpe is a rookie but one with a starting job and Marcus Mariota looked his way 11 times Sunday. There’s 75-catch, 1,000-yard upside with little competition in Tennessee. New England’s Hogan scored on a 37-yarder from Jimmy Garappolo early against the Cardinals and also has opportunity. Just wait until Tom Brady returns, too.
I’m tired of relying on older Wallace and Royal, and Adams and Agholor looked so dreadful last season, it’s tough to get excited. They did score touchdowns Sunday. As for Mohamed Sanu and Will Fuller, touchdown makers Sunday, they are each more than 50 percent owned, though barely. I’d go with Fuller over Sanu for the rookie possesses terrific upside, even alongside DeAndre Hopkins in Houston.

Second down: Fantasy owners knew early in the week to avoid Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware became the most added fantasy option, though he remained active in fewer than 60 percent of fantasy lineups. Ware figured to carve up the Chargers. He just wasn’t supposed to do so through the air. Ware played in 11 games last season and was a productive runner, averaging 5.6 yards per tote and scoring six rushing touchdowns. He caught only six passes all season. On Sunday he topped that with seven, including a 45-yarder, and he had 74 yards after the catch, tied for third-most for a Chiefs player the past three seasons. Ware also scored a rushing touchdown. Charles, on the mend from a torn ACL, could miss several more weeks and the emergence of Ware into borderline RB1 status could push his return back further. Ware scored 25 standard fantasy points Sunday, tying him with Denver’s C.J. Anderson to lead the position entering Monday football. Ware, who remains available in about 20 percent of ESPN leagues, will see his value alter some when Charles returns, but let’s not presume it disappears.


Third down: Three quarterbacks tossed four touchdown passes Sunday, and it’s little surprise the Saints’ Drew Brees and Colts’Andrew Luck were two of them. Brees had a cushy home matchup with Oakland and took full advantage, topping 400 passing yards along the way. Luck showed no ill effects from last season’s injuries and picked apart the Lions for 385 yards, though as with Brees, his team found a way to lose the game late.Tampa Bay Buccaneers sophomore Jameis Winston emerged victorious and with 25 standard fantasy points. Winston, who finished last season just outside fantasy’s top 10 quarterbacks in standard scoring, had one game with more than two touchdown passes. He looked composed Sunday, avoiding sacks and finding four different fellows for scores, but he also kept WR2 Mike Evans busy enough for fantasy owners. Last season Winston completed only one pass at least 30 yards downfield to Evans, in 15 chances. The duo matched that mark Sunday, a great sign. Winston’s upside is clear but be a bit careful here, as he’s not likely to get a top-10 rankings nod before perhaps Week 7 -- the Bucs face the Cardinals, Rams, Broncos and Panthers the next month -- but try to keep him around for later. The December schedule features two games with the defensively-absent Saints and one in Dallas!
Fourth down: Of course, not all the statistical performances on Sunday were positive. Top running backs Adrian Peterson and Devonta Freeman combined for 71 total yards and seven standard fantasy points, which is obviously far from ideal, but it’s premature to read too much into it. Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylorthrew for a mere 111 passing yards and no scores, and only 12 passers were active in more ESPN standard formats. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall andGolden Tate disappointed, but at least they scored points. Dallas Cowboys starDez Bryant, who boasts excellent career numbers against the division-rival New York Giants, was held to nary a standard fantasy point Sunday on one catch for eight yards, only the fourth time in his career he has been held under 10 receiving yards. Since rookie quarterback Dak Prescott is going to keep on playing until Tony Romo returns from injury, Bryant owners are plenty worried. Bryant, who has struggled in the past with Romo out, was targeted five times, and had a touchdown called back via replay, so it’s not like Prescott ignored him, but the Giants certainly aimed to let anyone other than Bryant beat them, including tight end Jason Witten, who was targeted 14 times, though nothing far downfield. At least Bryant is healthy. Things will improve and this presents a wonderful buying opportunity for one of the top-10 wide receivers in the sport. Oh, and don’t panic on Peterson, Freeman or the others, either. It’s one game.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 1 fantasy football winners and losers: Brees, Winston shine

Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN Senior Writer


You win some, you lose some.

It's the how you win or lose that makes your Sunday fantasy football experience: that hunch you had to start a rookie quarterback who promptly went off, or that No. 1 pick who unexpectedly let you down.

Each Sunday, we'll recap the week's winners and losers from a fantasy perspective, complete with applicable game and historical data. Check back after the conclusion of the 1 and 4 p.m. ET (and, when applicable, Sunday Night Football) games for our picks of the week's best and worst.


Winners

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints: Say hello to our scoring leader from the Sunday 1 p.m. ET game block, as Brees dropped 30 fantasy points on the perceived-by-many-to-be-up-and-coming (including by this columnist)Oakland Raiders defense. It's the 83rd time during his career that Brees has reached the 30-point threshold, second-most in history behind only Peyton Manning's 105.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints: Cooks' performance played a large part in driving Brees' points total, particularly a 98-yard receiving touchdown during the third quarter. It was the longest receiving play in a regular-season or postseason game since Eli Manning and Victor Cruz connected for a 99-yard score during Week 16 of 2011, and it helped Cooks to a career-best 27 fantasy points.

Willie Snead, WR, Saints: Cooks wasn't the only Saints wide receiver who got into the action. Snead had a productive game of his own, setting a new personal best with 23 fantasy points.

Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A preseason breakout pick by many (again, this columnist included), Winston got off to a good start to 2016, scoring 25 fantasy points to finish tied for fourth at his position through the Sunday 4 p.m. ET games. What was particularly unusual about it was the opponent; the Atlanta Falcons, hosts for this contest, typically rein in the passing game, evidenced by the fact that Winston's fantasy point total was the most by any individual quarterback against the Falcons since Aaron Rodgersmanaged 27 against them in Week 14 of 2014.

It's also a good sign for the second-year signal-caller, in that only six other quarterbacks since 1950 have scored more fantasy points during Week 1 of their sophomore seasons: Cade McNown (33, in 2000), Dan Marino (32, in 1984), Daunte Culpepper (30, in 2000), Phil Simms (29, in 1980), Drew Bledsoe (28, in 1994) and Norm Snead (26, in 1962). In addition, Winston now has 286 fantasy points through his first 17 NFL contests, which places him seventh all time through that many games, behind Cam Newton (364), Robert Griffin(344), Culpepper (324), Kurt Warner (312), Marino (294) and Andrew Luck(288).

Winston's 60.0 percent ownership, and especially his 15.7 percent start percentage during Week 1, in ESPN leagues is certain to rise as a result.

Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: As expected, Ware got the start in place of the injured Jamaal Charles (knee), and he made it count, his 25 fantasy points matching C.J. Anderson's total from Thursday night for the lead among running backs through the 4 p.m. ET games. Curiously, it was Ware's receivingexploits that fueled his point total, as he caught seven of eight targets for 129 yards, resulting in a 32-point day in leagues that use PPR scoring. That's more targets, catches and receiving yards than Ware had in all 13 of his career games entering the season combined, and it hints that he could be a factor in the receiving game even after Charles' healthy return. Ware, incidentally, is owned in 79.8 percent of ESPN leagues and was started in 57.6 percent.

Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts: Did anyone start Doyle? Heck, does anyone own Doyle? Check the stats: The highest-scoring Week 1 tight end, through the 4 p.m. ET games, was owned in 0.02 percent and started in 0.01 percent, but he scored two critical fourth-quarter touchdowns in the Colts' heartbreaking 39-35 loss.

Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts: Perhaps all he needed was a full-time opportunity to claim the Colts' tight end targets; Coby Fleener's offseason departure granted Allen that chance entering 2016 (Doyle's Week 1 explosion notwithstanding). It paid off, for Week 1 at least, as Allen's 13 fantasy points set a new personal best, after he had managed only five double-digit efforts in his first 43 career contests, and never more than 12 in a single game (Week 1 of 2014). He remains available in 62.1 percent of ESPN leagues, incidentally, and had the performance that is much, much more sustainable.
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts: Thanks in part to his tight ends' performances, Luck captured the week's top score through the 4 p.m. ET games, tallying 35 fantasy points in what was an expected high-scoring affair against the Detroit Lions. Though Luck already had 12 career games with at least 25 fantasy points to his credit, with six of those coming in his breakthrough 2014 (and most recent fully healthy) campaign alone, this was the first time that he had ever scored this many.

Incidentally, Luck now has 1,040 career fantasy points, in 56 games played.Cam Newton is the only quarterback to score that many through as many career contests; he scored 1,061 fantasy points through his first 56.

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: Few were so bold as to use Wentz -- he was started in just 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues, and is owned in 10.8 percent -- but his 19 fantasy points on Sunday was still a good start, though granted it came against a bad Cleveland Browns defense. Only 14 other quarterbacks since 1950 managed more fantasy points in their NFL debuts than Wentz.
Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers: How disappointing was his 2015 rookie campaign? Here's one way to quantify it: Gordon's two rushing touchdowns on Sunday were two more than he had in all 14 games in which he played last season. In fact, since 1950, Gordon's 217 total touches without a touchdown in 2015 were tied for seventh-most, behind only Marcel Shipp's 258 in 2003, Adrian Murrell's 242 in 1999, Kevin Faulk's 241 in 2003, Harold Green's 237 in 1993, Preston Carpenter's 220 in 1956 and Jess Phillips' 220 in 1973.

Those scores fueled a 17-point fantasy day for Gordon, which is not only more than he had in any single game in 2015, but also more than he had in any two-game span in 2015 (his two-game best was 14, Weeks 2-3).
Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants: Consider it a win for him even if more from a personal perspective than a significant fantasy storyline, as in his first game since Week 6 of 2014, Cruz caught all four of his targets for nine fantasy points. Cruz is owned in 18.9 percent of ESPN leagues, which should only rise if he keeps this up.
Losers

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings: The No. 1 running back selected on average, and No. 3 player overall, in ESPN drafts this preseason, Peterson let his owners down in a major way, scoring only three fantasy points on 19 rushing attempts. That matched his worst fantasy performance in a game with at least that many opportunities; he also had three fantasy points on 19 rushing attempts during Week 5 of 2008. It's a poor first step for Peterson, who at age 31 is trying to become the first player since Thomas Jones in 2009 (221 fantasy points, age 31) to manage a 200-point fantasy season at the age of 31 or older, and the 10th different player to reach that threshold at his age or older. In Peterson's defense, however, it is not the first time he has been held to single-digit fantasy points during Week 1, as he actually did it in 2015 (5 fantasy points) en route to a 217-point final season total.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons: Don't take out all of your frustrations on Peterson; 2015's top-scoring running back, Freeman, had an almost equally disappointing Week 1, with only four fantasy points on 15 touches. Especially disconcerting was that Tevin Coleman, widely regarded as Freeman's backup, had the clearly superior game, with 11 fantasy points of his own (as well as a 16-8 advantage in PPR scoring). Freeman was the No. 5 running back and No. 9 overall player off the board in average ESPN drafts this preseason, and he was started in 99.3 percent of ESPN leagues. Coleman, incidentally, was the No. 50 running back off the board in drafts, is currently owned in only 51.8 percent of leagues and was started in 2.6 percent.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: Bad news on the injury front, as Allen suffered an apparent torn right ACL on a non-contact play on the first snap after the two-minute warning during the first half of Sunday's game. Before departing, Allen had been off to an outstanding start, with six fantasy points (12 in PPR) on seven targets. His season is almost assuredly over, which is devastating news to his owners who helped make him the No. 16 wide receiver off the board during the preseason. (For help with potential replacements, check out Eric Karabell's column Sunday evening.)

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills: Owners in 37.0 percent of ESPN leagues saw Taylor's favorable Week 1 matchup and started him, and those owners received a mere five fantasy points from him. It's only the second time in his past 17 games that he finished in single digits, and in fact was his worst score in any of his 15 NFL starts.


Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns: With two of the most heavily owned tight ends, Rob Gronkowski (100.0 percent owned in ESPN leagues) and Tyler Eifert(84.3 percent owned), sitting out Week 1, Barnidge wound up the sixth most-started player at the position (77.7 percent of leagues). Unfortunately, he failed to come down with either of his two targets, his zero representing his worst fantasy performance since Week 17 of the 2014 season.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys: One of the most buzz-worthy players of the 2016 NFL preseason, Prescott had a forgettable regular-season debut, scoring 10 fantasy points on 45 pass attempts (the third-most attempts by any player through the 4 p.m. ET games). Though his wide receivers hardly did him many favors, Prescott's 16.6 percent start rate in ESPN leagues isn't especially likely to rise in Week 2.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: He deserves more of the blame for Prescott's pedestrian fantasy point total, as out of his quarterback's 45 pass attempts, Bryant saw five targets and caught only one of them for 8 yards and therefore a big, fat fantasy doughnut. It was only the third time in his career Bryant has been shut out, but bear in mind that both of those were games missed by Tony Romo: Week 12 of 2010 and Week 14 of 2015. In 14 career games Bryant has played during which Romo was entirely absent, Bryant has 103 fantasy points (7.4 average); he has averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game when Romo has participated for at least one snap.

 

[HacheMan]

Answering Week 2's biggest fantasy rankings questions

Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer

ESPN INSIDER


The best fantasy game of the 2015 season happened in Week 8, when New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and his New York Giants counterpart,Eli Manning, engaged in the type of high-scoring slugfest we all love, unless we invested in those respective defenses -- and let's just say nobody was interested in those defenses. Brees topped 500 passing yards and tossed seven touchdowns while Manning registered 350 passing yards and six scores. Combined, the duo totaled 82 standard fantasy points, and several receivers enjoyed the day, too.

Why is this relevant? There's a rematch in New Jersey on Sunday -- so buckle up!

Of course, the change in venue from Louisiana to, well, anywhere else is actually quite a big deal for one of these teams, and I know you're going to tell me there's no such thing as home/road splits in football -- but when it comes to the Saints, there is. Brees played in one less road game than home last season, missing the Week 3 matchup at Carolina. Had he played, this argument would have only been strengthened, but in those seven games he tossed a total of nine touchdown passes and threw six interceptions. His average of yards per game was 288, opposite the 356 at the cozy Superdome, where 23 of his touchdown passes took place. The split is similar in 2013 and other past seasons.

In fact, 2014 was the lone season this decade in which Brees didn't produce significantly greater home numbers than on the road. None of this means Brees can't light up the Giants for another 40-plus fantasy points, and nobody would seriously recommend a Brees owner to unilaterally bench him for this matchup -- even if the home team is as improved defensively as the Giants appeared to be in Week 1 (against a rookie quarterback). But this is why Brees isn't my No. 1 quarterback for Week 2, or even in the top 5. He's 10. Don't get crazy looking for reasons to sit him for the likes of Carson Wentz, but Brees was a top-10 quarterback in only one of his road games a season ago. One!

I tend to point out for fantasy baseball leagues the difference between roto and head-to-head formats for starting pitchers with extreme splits or Colorado Rockies players. In a season-long roto, one can close their eyes and expect Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, for example, to end up with the desirable numbers. In head-to-head, we tend to notice a week when the team is away from home. I won't say I avoided Brees in drafts for this reason, but fantasy football is head-to-head, and I recall last season -- and others previously -- not feeling so great about my team's chances for big numbers for a Saints road game in, say, Tampa Bay. The last three trips to Tampa Bay the Saints have scored 24, 23 and 16 points. Top-5 QB? Nope.
The Saints didn't flash much defense in the Week 1 loss to gambling Oakland Raiders coach Jack Del Rio, who felt pretty confident going for a two-point conversion -- and the win -- in the final minute because he saw the same shoddy defense we all do. Fantasy owners, whether it's in standard head-to-head or in DFS, look to gang up on the weaker defenses -- and the Saints are going to allow a lot of stuff this season. Their secondary even lost key defenders. We all ranked the Saints defense last this week. A strong part of Brees' value is predicated on the Saints boasting a pathetic defense, really. Manning and Odell Beckham Jr.Brandin Cooks will be able to keep up.

Brees remains a borderline top-5 season quarterback for me, though I'd prefer week-to-week consistency rather than extreme highs and average performances. And Cooks can still get his numbers regardless, but the reason I moved running back Mark Ingram from my top 10 has to do with usage. He was wonderful in 2015 until the season-ending shoulder injury opened the door for forgotten reserve Tim Hightower, who was actually better on a per-game basis and was on the most ESPN fantasy playoff winning rosters. Perhaps the Saints realized it's the system, not the player. Anyone can do it. On Sunday, Ingram was bestowed a mere 14 touches, which is odd considering the context of the game -- the Saints never trailed in the second half until a minute remained -- and worse yet, he saw only two receiving targets.

Ingram caught 50 passes in only 12 contests last season, and was targeted five times per game. Saints personnel made it clear C.J. Spiller would have a role in the passing game, which is fine based on his theoretic skill set which we rarely see at a high level for whatever reason, but he was inactive Sunday and flat-out released on Tuesday, so Travaris Cadet handled the role and will continue to do so. He saw seven targets. Perhaps the Saints want to keep Ingram, who last played in more than 13 games in a season in 2012, healthy, but his receiving work was a key component of his top-10 preseason ranking for me. Now I have concerns. The Giants held hotshot Cowboys rookie Ezekiel Elliott to 2.6 yards per tote. If the Giants keep Ingram in similar check, and he's not catching passes, then he's not the top-10 running back we thought he'd be.

Quarterback ranking buzz: So yeah, that's why Manning is my top quarterback for the week, because it's the Saints he faces. I might be selling him short. He, like many quarterbacks, also produces better numbers in home games, but not to the extreme of Brees. Manning should be good for 20-plus fantasy points Sunday. Even though 10 quarterbacks reached that mark in Week 1, you can see in the Week 2 projections it's rare we expect such lofty numbers. ... I admit I might be reading a bit too much into this, but Aaron Rodgers against the Vikings in four games over the last two seasons has averaged only 217 yards passing, topping 213 yards once. He does have eight touchdown passes, or two per game, with only one interception. He's a good play, but against that defense, not an awesome one. ... I have concerns aboutRussell Wilson, but this week, certainly not about Matthew Stafford. Made my top 5. It's an odd week.


Running back ranking buzz:Yes, we all love DeAngelo Williamsand will continue to do so, perhaps regardless of matchup. If Le'Veon Bell does not return -- he will soon -- I'd really rank Williams a top-5 season running back. ... I'm surprised I ranked Matt Forte 10th, but the Week 1 usage was ideal, and I presented the second-lowest rank on him. ... It's not hatin' on Carlos Hyde, but it's the matchup in Carolina, and across the country. And what did Hyde do in Week 2 last year after an awesome Week 1? Not really a believer in that sort of thing, but also not expecting Hyde to remain healthy. ... Even ifChris Ivory sits (and I did not rank him), I'm not impressed by T.J. Yeldon. ... We all went with Devonta Freeman considerably over Tevin Coleman, but none in the top 10. Interesting game this week, but I have to admit, I don't worry about players from eastern teams going west. Just the other way around.

Wide receiver ranking buzz: There are rarely surprises in the wide receiver rankings, as form seems to hold. A few of us like Doug Baldwin more than most, and there is the risk Russell Wilson sits. That would alter my ranking. If Wilson plays, Baldwin is a boss, and the LA matchup didn't look so tough on Monday night. ... More of us have Marvin Jones ranked over Golden Tate than the other way around, so that's pretty interesting. I went with Jones. ... Not buying Willie Snead doing that again, especially with what I wrote earlier about Brees. ... Lions-Titans shootout? Is Tajae Sharpe already a top-20 guy? Don't be surprised. I was highest at No. 31 though. ... Sleeper alert on Sterling Shepard. The Saints can't defend anything! ... I think we'll all be removing Buffalo'sSammy Watkins from our rankings before Thursday's game, but for now, he's top 20.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Scouting Todd Gurley, Will Fuller and early fantasy trends[/h]Matt Bowen
ESPN Staff Writer

ESPN INSIDER

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley carried the ball 17 times for 47 yards against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. That's an average of 2.8 yards per carry. Throw in the one reception for minus-5 yards, and Gurley came out of the game with a total fantasy production of just four points in standard scoring leagues. That's a rough start for owners expecting Gurley to produce like a top-10 pick.
But can one game, in the first week of the season, really set a trend for Gurley's future production? As we look back on the Week 1 NFL action, there are some questions on veteran production and also some promise for young talent showing up on the film. Let's discuss what I saw and start looking ahead to next weekend's matchups.
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Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Why would any defense play with a light run front (seven-man box) versus the Rams? Nah, load the box on early down-and-distances, and basically play your strong safety as an extra linebacker. Tell that dude to put on his big-boy pads and get in the mix. That gives you eight defenders to squeeze the run game.


Sure, it does leave you vulnerable on the outside with one-on-one matchups. But after watching quarterback Case Keenum and the anemic Rams passing offense, are you really scared by anyone on this roster, outside of Gurley?
That's the issue for the Rams right now. Opposing defensive coordinators are going to form their game plan specifically to limit Gurley. On Monday night, Keenum finished 17-of-35 for 132 yards with two interceptions and a total QBR of 5.0. That's brutal. And while Gurley can break off a big play at any time, I understand the concern from owners. Gurley is trying to find daylight versus defenses keying on the run game.
Next up for Gurley are the Seattle Seahawks, a unit that just limited the Miami Dolphins to 64 yards rushing on 20 carries. Last season, Gurley gained 83 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in the one game he played against Seattle, so there is reason for owners to be optimistic heading into Week 2. I would never sit Gurley, but owners need the Rams to show some consistency in the passing game to open up those running lanes for him.

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Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
I am always very skeptical of playing rookie wide receivers in my lineup early in the season, because of the transition process to the pro game. But after watching Fuller, a first-round pick, haul in five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown versus the Bears, I understand the hype.
Yes, the Bears' secondary is subpar and banged up. But Fuller is a smooth route runner with legitimate 4.3 speed, and Texans quarterback Brock Osweilertargeted him often Sunday. Fuller got 11 targets in week 1, whereas DeAndre Hopkins, who averaged 11.9 targets per game last season, got only eight. Maybe that continues, maybe not. The key here is that Osweiler wants to take shots to Fuller down the field. Think of the fade and the deep post. Those are opportunities for explosive plays. And while Fuller did drop a deep ball Sunday (part of playing a rookie in your lineup), he has the speed to challenge any defensive back in the league.
Fuller produced 16 fantasy points Sunday in standard scoring leagues, 21 in PPR leagues, and his touchdown came on a simple wide receiver screen. He's going to see the rock. Does that bump him up to WR2 status? I can see that. But I like Fuller this week as a flex play against the Chiefs. Give me one more week of production, rookie. Then I'll jump on the train.

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Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Sunday was a frustrating day for Freeman owners (yeah, that includes me). The RB1 managed only 20 yards on 11 carries (1.8 yards per carry) with another 20 yards receiving on four receptions versus the Bucs. That was good for just four fantasy points in standard scoring leagues, eight points in PPR leagues. Even with the rough start for Freeman, I like that he got 15 total touches in that game. I can live with that.
However, the production of Atlanta's No. 2 running back, Tevin Coleman, is what should concern Freeman owners. Coleman didn't light up the stat sheet on the ground, with 22 yards on eight carries, but he had five catches (on six targets) for 95 yards (19.0 yards per catch). He has speed and good vision in the open field. I'm starting to wonder if Coleman is going to steal more touches.
I'm not going to sit Freeman. He's my RB1 again this week against a Raiders defense that was just shredded by the Saints in Week 1. But I am going to closely monitor the splits with the Falcons backfield and the touches inside the red zone. That's where Freeman needs to see the ball and score touchdowns. He has electric ability inside of the 20-yard line.

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Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns
I'm intrigued with Pryor because of his obvious athleticism and matchup ability. At 6-foot-4, 223 pounds, with enough long speed to get down the field, Pryor can challenge the top of the secondary and also use his frame to make plays in the red zone. On Sunday, Pryor had three receptions (on seven targets) for 68 yards (22.7 yards per catch). And we got to see his enormous catch radius when he ran the fade/go route versus the Eagles. Heck of a finish, there.
But with Robert Griffin III back on the shelf, will the Browns have the same vertical system now that veteran Josh McCown is taking over the offense? That's what I have to see. There was some chemistry with RG3 and Pryor on the field, something that showed up in the preseason, too. Deep shots, throw it up, go make a play. And that meant targets for Pryor.
Now, Griffin did miss some opportunities with Pryor on Sunday, including in the red zone and on the deep crossing route. Those are plays that should be made. If McCown can be more accurate with the ball and take some calculated shots over the top of the defense, Pryor's value could really start to rise. WithJosh Gordon not returning for another three weeks, expect Pryor and rookieCorey Coleman to continue as the top targets in the Browns' route tree.

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Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers
Forget the concerns about Benjamin's knee and the questions about the amount of snaps he'd get early in the season. Benjamin caught six passes (on 12 targets) for 91 yards and a touchdown against one of the league's top defenses in the opener versus the Broncos. That was good for 15 points in standard scoring leagues and 21 in PPR leagues. He was the clear No. 1 option for quarterbackCam Newton, and the Panthers took advantage of Benjamin's size in the red zone to score.


Go back to the seam route he ran versus Broncos' cornerback Chris Harris, one of the top coverage guys in the league -- stem up the field and bend the route inside. You couldn't even see Harris at the point of attack because of Benjamin's 6-foot-5, 245 pound frame. He's a monster on those inside routes, someone who can box out smaller defensive backs in the red zone and finish for six. All day long.
Given the amount of targets Benjamin saw compared with the rest of the wide receivers in Carolina (Devin Funchess was next in line with four targets), owners have to be excited about his potential for production. I didn't see any effects from the knee injury on tape, and the Panthers offense is designed to create inside throwing windows off run-action. That's where Benjamin can go to work on the skinny post, seam and deep dig.

Too big, too strong. The top target for Newton is back. And he is going to eat up defenders in the red zone.

 

[HacheMan]

Love/Hate for Week 2: Stand by your man

Matthew Berry
ESPN Senior Writer

You know that feeling?

It's Sunday afternoon, and as the games progress, blood drains from your face.

Maybe it's a player you released or traded who is suddenly going off. Maybe it's a player you benched who is lighting it up, while the one you started has just fumbled for the second time and is heading to the bench. Or maybe it's a player who you said you "hated" on national TV, and now he has decided to have the game of his life. (That last one has a very narrow audience.)

Whatever the case, we've all had that feeling. That "oh no" feeling.
It happened again on Sunday. I went pale. Tingles went up my spine. I got a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach. "Oh no, " I thought. "Please, no ..."
I checked my computer, I checked my phone, I checked Twitter, looking for any sign of hope, of any inkling it might not be as bad as I fear.
I found none.

Our app had crashed.

I was among hundreds of ESPN employees who spent the good part of August promoting our new app. I have spent the past decade of my life promoting ESPN's league manager product, telling everyone who would listen why they need to play fantasy football and that when they did, they needed to do it on ESPN.com.

It is promotion I am happy to do, not just because it is part of my job, but because I truly believe it. I think the app is great. I have played in fantasy leagues hosted by all of our competitors. Much of it is personal preference, but, yeah, I like us best. I know how much fantasy means to you, how consumed we all get by it and how most of us rely on technology to play it. We need it to work. All the time.

But when it's not working on game day? That's the worst. My social media starts blowing up. (If you ever want to feel better about yourself, take a stroll through my Twitter mentions from last Sunday). Emails are pouring in. Texts are lighting up my phone. "Hey, what's wrong with the app? "How come I can't see my scores?" "Did you know they're talking about you guys on CNN?"

So many emotions ran through me. I feel terrible for our tech team, the guys who worked so hard on this all summer. I feel terrible for our fans, who have trusted their fantasy teams and leagues with us and we have let them down, and I feel helpless. There's literally nothing I can do to help. People are working around the clock and eventually, the issue gets fixed. We were down for about four hours, and that meant it spanned the 4 p.m. ET game-locking window. The tech team then spends more time putting into place solutions for league managers to fix the issues the outage caused.
On Monday, we do our podcast and there's some information we need to get out there about how to fix any issues that Sunday's outage may have caused, but I also felt that I wanted to apologize, and so I did. I am thankful for the many fans who reached out saying they accepted it, they understood that some things are beyond people' s control and appreciated the efforts ESPN has made and continues to make to try to provide the best fantasy service out there while keeping the cost at exactly $0.

Others reached out with notes like this one (I've edited it for length):

Hi Matthew,
Yesterday was not the best of days for ESPN. Throughout the day, the ESPN fantasy football/sports twitter/facebook accounts were continuously copy-pasting the scenario at hand with no further detail.

I have logged into the app today to see your face as the thumbnail of a video of you apologizing on behalf of ESPN for the gaffe. I get it, traffic is at its heaviest on the first Sunday of every season and it's not easy, even for the worldwide leader in sport.

I appreciated the apology, but I found it was a bit unfair. Not the fact that the app/servers crashed. But the fact that they made you apologize on their behalf. I don't think it was fair for you to take the blame. Nor of ESPN to record you apologizing on a podcast (usually an audio platform) and share it as much as they can. I'm sure their stance of you being 'the face of ESPN fantasy football' is their reasoning, but I sure don't think that you should apologize for something you have (let's admit) nothing to do with. It's not that you do coding, or any app development (aside for maybe some suggestions here and there).

I guess this is my way of saying that you are doing a great job (even if others aren't) and to keep your chin up during this time.
A loyal fan, Jonathan Montreal, Canada

I got many notes like this, Jonathan, and it meant the world to me. I really appreciate the note, but here's the thing. Yes, you are correct that I don't write code or do app development, but I look at it differently.

These are my guys. We are a team here. ESPN Fantasy is not any one person or app or platform. It is a collection of a lot of very talented, hard-working people that all have two things in common. They love fantasy sports and they believe in our company's mission statement: To serve sports fans, anywhere, anytime.

I cannot begin to tell you how many good things I have gotten credit for, or been able to experience, based on work that I had nothing to do with. Whether it is our product team, our engineering team, research, publicity, ad sales, marketing, programming, editorial, and everyone else who has a hand in our success. All of them work their butts off, all of them are doing great work and none of them need me.

So yeah, if I am damn lucky enough (and that's the right word here, lucky) to stand with these men and women in the good times, you better believe I am standing with them in the bad. They are truly the best of the best and you know what? Last Sunday, all of us had a bad day.
But if you think I will bail on those guys now or try to step back or say I'm not a part of this, you're nuts. I stand with my team, through good and through bad, and I do so proudly. While all this was happening, there were lots of other disappointments to be felt. Adrian Peterson. Todd Gurley. Brandon Marshall.Dez Bryant. Coby Fleener. Gary Barnidge. You may have heard me rant aboutMark Ingram.

As the app was fixed and normalcy returned, my Twitter and Facebook feed turned to questions about those guys. Do we bail? Are we screwed?
And the answer, for me, was the same all weekend, be it ESPN Fantasy or the players you drafted early. No man, I'm not bailing. These are my guys.
Last year, in Week 1, Benjamin Watson had three catches for 19 yards. He would finish the season as the eighth-highest-scoring tight end. The second-highest-scoring tight end in Week 1 last year, by the way, was Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who had that huge 110-yard, 2-touchdown game in a blowout loss to the Titans, then managed two more touchdowns and 228 yards in six games before being done for the season.

Last year, in Week 1, Adrian Peterson had 52 total yards, no touchdowns and was RB38 for the week. After Week 1 last year, Bishop Sankey sat fourth in running back scoring after going off in that same game. Sankey did not survive this season's round of final cuts.


Last year, in Week 1, Odell Beckham Jr. went 5 for 44 and was tied for WR48 going into Week 2. After Week 1 last year, the fifth-best wide receiver in fantasy was, you guessed it, the Titans' Kendall Wright.
Don't let one game, one weekend, make you lose perspective. Yeah, Sunday was a bad day. No doubt. But better ones are ahead. So I am not panicking.


Quarterbacks I love in Week 2

Drew Brees, Saints: The second-leading scorer last week and first-ballot Hall of Famer may seem like an obvious name, but when I looked at my fellow co-rankers, I'm the highest on him. Three of our five rankers have him outside the top three, two of which have him outside the top five. I am aware of Brees' home/road splits and, yes, this game is outdoors in New Jersey. I am also aware of the improved Giants defense. But while their front line impressed me, I'm less sold on their secondary. Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley easily could have had scores against the Giants last week and with the Saints' run game stymied a bit, expect Brees to exploit a Giants pass defense that is vulnerable inside. (Hello,Willie Snead!) I expect New York to have its way with the Saints' defense and while I'm not saying it's a seven-touchdown shootout for Brees like last year, he is a must-start in season-long play and worthy of strong consideration in daily.

Eli Manning, Giants: We're all on Eli this week, especially at home. Last season, no QB threw more passes and had a higher TD/INT rate at home last season than Eli. The Saints' defense is -- what is the word I am looking for -- crappy. New Orleans gave up six different pass plays of 20-plus yards and it doesn't get any better a Sunday.

Matthew Stafford, Lions: I mentioned this in my preseason 100 facts column, but the change in Stafford since Jim Bob Cooter took over is truly remarkable. It's probably gotten lost in all the name jokes, but Cooter took over mid-week in Week 8 last season (on the way to a London game, no less). The Lions had their bye in Week 9 and Cooter got to make adjustments. From Week 10 last year through last week, here's the entire list of QBs with more fantasy points than Matthew Stafford during the past nine regular-season games:

Cam Newton and Russell Wilson.
That's it. That's the whole list. Only Wilson has more passing touchdowns, Stafford is sixth in passing yards since then and no qualified QB has fewer interceptions (he has only two since Week 10 last year). Just so you understand what we are dealing with here, an elite fantasy quarterback who is still available in 20 percent of ESPN leagues. At home against a Titans team that doesn't have the personnel to keep up with the Lions' weapons, Stafford is an easy top-five play this week.
Others receiving votes: I know, he looked bad against the Steelers, but I likeKirk Cousins for a bounce-back against the Cowboys in a game featuring two suspect defenses. ... Joe Flacco is healthy, has some weapons and no running game. He gets Cleveland? That'll work. ... Matt Ryan is the only QB to be a top-five fantasy QB in the first month in three of the past four seasons. On the road, yes, but the Falcons will struggle to run and the Raiders don't have an answer for Julio Jones. Ryan keeps it going this week in a top-15 sort of way.

Quarterbacks I hate in Week 2


Russell Wilson, Seahawks: If we see by Friday he is practicing fully and has no issues with the ankle, then ignore this. But as of this writing, he's still a bit gimpy, which limits his mobility and, thus, his fantasy production. From 2012-15, no QB scored more fantasy points outside of the pocket than Wilson. Weirdly, he hasn't been that great against the Rams (15 points and 20 points in two meetings last season, which is solid but not otherworldly). Given how bad the Rams are this season, I can see Seattle's defense getting the Hawks up big and the team resting a gimpy Wilson in the second half or just running a lot. If he's healthy, that's a different story, but as of now, I am concerned enough to be lower on him than normal.

Tyrod Taylor, Bills: He played the Jets on short rest last season and finished with just 170 total yards. He'll either have a banged-up Sammy Watkins or not have him at all. Taylor had just one passing score on his 55 pass attempts against the Jets last season. It has been three straight games without a touchdown pass for Taylor and there's only so much you can do with your legs. Ty-God will be back as a fantasy asset at some point this season, but I can't see him as a top-12 play this week.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: Not unless you get points for handoffs. There will be no need for Dak to attempt a pass in this one, as Ezekiel Elliott will run all over Washington. So if you saw Ben Roethlisberger on Monday night and think Dak carves up Washington like he did, think again and look elsewhere in deep leagues or if searching for cheap DFS plays.
Running backs I love in Week 2

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: "Mama, who is that bad, bad man?" -- Me, curled in a ball, crying as I watch this game, probably.

Latavius Murray, Raiders: A week after his team rushed for a league-high 167 yards, including an NFL-best 88 yards after contact, Murray gets a home game against a Falcons team that gave up 137 total yards and a score to Bucs running backs last week. Atlanta struggled in short yardage last season as well, giving up the second-most rushing touchdowns of 10 yards or fewer, and behind that Raiders offensive line, expect Murray to punch one in and run well to help set up play-action.
Jeremy Langford, Bears: He has scored in four of his five career games with at least 15 touches and he's certainly going to get that much of a workload Monday night against an Eagles team that just gave up 137 total yards and a score to Browns running backs (5.6 yards per carry) in a game they controlled against a struggling offense. No defense gave up more yards per carry and more rushing attempts per game than the Eagles last season, as they ranked bottom 10 in both yards gained before first contact and yards gained after first contact. Langford is a legit top-15 play this week.

Rashad Jennings, Giants: I want as much of this game as I can get. In 11 of their past 17 games, the Saints have allowed 15-plus fantasy points to opposing RBs. The question with Jennings has never been talent, it has been health and opportunity. Well, he's healthy and the Giants have picked up where they left off last season in terms of workload. Jennings is averaging 119.8 yards from scrimmage in his past five games, he's at home against the Saints and on Sunday, he makes it six solid fantasy efforts in a row.


Others receiving votes: I expect a split in carries in the Seahawks' backfield, but a gimpy Russell Wilson and a nice second-half lead against the Rams makes bothThomas Rawls and Christine Michaelviable flex plays this week. ... I've never been a huge T.J. Yeldon fan, but with no Chris Ivory again this week and a matchup with a San Diego team that looked, um, overmatched last week againstSpencer Ware, I'm firing up Yeldon on Sunday. ... You already know how I feel about Stafford, so make no mistake, Theo Riddick's usage is legit and his role in an elite pass game is secure. ... Chris Thompson is gonna be "Theo Riddick lite" this season, as the Redskins often play from behind, including this week, where they won't be able to run once again. I wouldn't expect a score, but he'll be a legit part of the passing game. ... Only five defenses allowed more RB receptions than the Raiders last season, so yeah, count me as "IN" on the Tevin Coleman hype train. Notice I didn't mention Devonta Freeman at the top in terms of standing by our guys. He was a preseason "hate" for me and Coleman is one of the reasons why. He's still available in about 40 percent of ESPN.com leagues, too, don'tcha know?


Running backs I hate in Week 2

Melvin Gordon, Chargers: Lost in the two-touchdown game for Melvin is the fact that Danny Woodhead played twice as many snaps, had 21 touches compared to Gordon's 14 and, in fact, had more rushing attempts as well (16 to 14). With Keenan Allen out, every pass catcher is going to have to be more involved and that includes Woodhead, who should fare better than Gordon against an improved Jags defense that last week held the Packers to just 3.8 yards per carry and was fifth best in terms of yards per carry against last season.

Frank Gore, Colts: I swear, Frank Gore is going to have value this year. A preseason favorite of mine because he was being drafted so crazy low and basically has the job to himself, he wasn't great in Week 1 and things look bleaker this week, on the road against a Denver team that allowed a league-low 3.3 yards per rush last season. He did get 18 touches last week and the Colts will need his blocking, so he will be on the field a lot if you're looking for a silver lining. But until there's improvement on the Colts' O-line, you'll need a touchdown from Gore to make him worthy of start.

Ryan Mathews, Eagles: Mathews is averaging just 3.39 yards per carry in his past six games, so you'll need a touchdown and volume to make him work this week. To which you say, yeah, I know, so what's the issue? Well, the Bears actually possess a decent (not great, but not terrible either) run defense, as they given up just nine rushing touchdowns since the start of last season. Yes, Lamar Miller had a huge day against them last week, but look closer. It took the Texans 35 carries to get to 129 rushing yards last week, just 3.7 yards per carry. I can't see the Eagles committing to the run like that, especially in a game they could easily be trailing. Not a top-20 play for me this week.
Wide receivers I love in Week 2

Brandon Marshall, Jets: Think he goes two bad games in a row? Yeah, neither do I.


Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos: With Demaryius Thomas banged up, Sanders will be the main beneficiary of going against that very exploitable Colts secondary. And with Denver running the ball so effectively, this sets up nicely to take some shots down the field to Sanders. Gut call, but I say he hits one.

Doug Baldwin, Seahawks: Eight catches for 118 yards and a score the last time these two teams met. The Rams don't have anyone who can keep up with Baldwin and, as mentioned, a hobbled Wilson will look to exploit quick matchups rather than run around and let deep plays develop. We saw Jeremy Kerley exploit the Rams from the slot on Monday night and Baldwin is, shall we say, an upgrade on Kerley.

Willie Snead, Saints: You already know I love Brees in this matchup and the underrated Snead should have another big week, too. You think about whatCole Beasley did to these Giants last week and it's hard not to get excited about Snead, who played the majority of his snaps from the slot last week. Worth noting, in case you think Snead is a fluke:
Past 16 games for Willie Snead: 78 catches for 1,156 yards and 5 touchdowns
Jarvis Landry was WR15 last season with 1,159 yards and 4 touchdowns
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, Lions: Calvin who? The only people who will enjoy this week's home matchup with the Tennessee Titans more than Tate and Jones are their owners.
Others receiving votes: It's not just chicks who dig the long ball, it's also Joe Flacco. Expect him to take a few shots and connect on at least one with Mike Wallace against the Browns on Sunday. ... You're already starting Odell Beckham Jr., but given the matchup (and their usage last week), Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz are on the radar this week as well. ... A lot of people will have to step up for the Chargers now that Keenan Allen is lost for the season and one of them should be Tyrell Williams, whom Philip Rivers has spoken highly of in the press. Definitely a risk/reward play at this point, but he's a name to consider for super-deep leagues or a GPP in daily.


Wide receivers I hate in Week 2

T.Y. Hilton, Colts: Likely drawing Chris Harris most of the time, this is a tough spot for Hilton. Denver is tied for the fewest completions allowed on passes thrown 15-plus yards and ranks second in completion percentage allowed on such passes. Hilton doesn't have the size advantage that a Kelvin Benjamin does and it's worth noting that he has scored a touchdown in just three of his past 22 games (including playoffs). After this weekend, it'll be three of his past 23 games.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys: Washington always plays him tough (six straight games versus the Redskins without more than five catches) and he has more than 50 receiving yards in just two of his past 10 games overall. There is no need for the Cowboys to get cute here, they will run the ball and do it successfully against the Skins, which means fewer shots to the end zone for Dez. He will need to score here to be worth the start, and the odds of that are not great.
Tight ends I love in Week 2

Gary Barnidge, Browns: Nowhere to go but up! Barnidge averaged more than 12 fantasy points per game last season when Josh McCown was the quarterback (last year's No. 1 tight end, Rob Gronkowski, averaged 11.7). With McCown now starting in Cleveland, expect him to find Barnidge often. It's not a great matchup, but I'm putting him here because I know a lot of owners were burned by him last week (sheepishly raises hand). I'm back in this week and you should be too.


Delanie Walker, Titans: Another star who had a quiet Week 1 that I think gets back on track in Week 2 against a Lions team that just gave up three scores to tight ends last week. He's an easy top-four play for me this week and someone I would try to pry from an impatient owner. He won't be this cheap next Tuesday.
Others receiving votes: With Demaryius Thomas banged up, I could see some extra love going to Virgil Green, who has a nice matchup with the Colts. Indy coughed up five catches for 46 yards and a score last week to Eric Ebron. ...Jacob Tamme led the Falcons in catches and targets in Week 1 and certainly, despite what a Coby Fleener owner might tell you, the matchup with Oakland is solid. ... Speaking of that game, I also like Clive Walford to bounce back after last week's disappointment. The Falcons allowed five catches for 64 yards and two scores to tight ends last week.

Tight ends I hate in Week 2


Delanie Walker, Titans: Another star who had a quiet Week 1 that I think gets back on track in Week 2 against a Lions team that just gave up three scores to tight ends last week. He's an easy top-four play for me this week and someone I would try to pry from an impatient owner. He won't be this cheap next Tuesday.

Others receiving votes: With Demaryius Thomas banged up, I could see some extra love going to Virgil Green, who has a nice matchup with the Colts. Indy coughed up five catches for 46 yards and a score last week to Eric Ebron. ...Jacob Tamme led the Falcons in catches and targets in Week 1 and certainly, despite what a Coby Fleener owner might tell you, the matchup with Oakland is solid. ... Speaking of that game, I also like Clive Walford to bounce back after last week's disappointment. The Falcons allowed five catches for 64 yards and two scores to tight ends last week.

Tight ends I hate in Week 2

Martellus Bennett, Patriots:There's a chance Rob Gronkowski is back this week and even if he's not, this isn't the best spot for Bennett to blow up. It's the Patriots, so anything is possible, but the Dolphins were top 10 versus tight ends last season and there were nine games in which they allowed 30 or fewer yards to tight ends. I thought Miami's pass rush looked pretty good last week, so I could see Bennett having to stay in to block more this week. He's on the Patriots, so he has a chance to score at any time, but that's what you'll need to have him pay off this week as a top-10 option. If you think he scores, start him. If not, look elsewhere.
Jimmy Graham, Seahawks: I'm trying to remember a quicker fall from fantasy superstar to afterthought than Graham, but either way, you're not starting him until you see something. And as discussed in the Russell Wilsonsection, that's unlikely this week. Especially until we see him fully healthy, as Graham played just 13 of 82 snaps last week.
Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, is also standing by Kirk Cousins, though he admits that is shakier than it was last week. He is the creator of RotoPass.com, a paid spokesman for DraftKings.com and one of the owners of the Fantasy Life app.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Best, worst wide receiver matchups for Week 2[/h]Mike Clay

ESPN INSIDER

We're in a new age in the NFL.
Elite wide receivers are lining up all over the offensive formation, including the slot. Only a handful of top-end corners are asked to shadow, and many of them play only on the perimeter.
By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week.
Here are the receivers with the best and worst Week 2 matchups.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.
[h=2]Advantageous matchups[/h]

Giants WRs Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz vs. Saints CBs P.J. Williams, De'Vante Harris and Ken Crawley
Delvin Breaux is one of the game's top young corners, but he's expected to miss a month or so with a leg injury. That means the Saints' top corners will be Williams, Harris and Crawley against the Giants this week. Considering that none of the three played a single snap in the NFL before last week, this is a plus matchup for Beckham, Shepard and Cruz. Williams was asked to shadow Amari Cooper last week, but didn't have much success. I suspect he will be asked to shadow Beckham this week, and the result is unlikely to be much different. Shepard lined up in the slot on 87 percent of his routes in his debut and will thus primarily line up opposite Harris. By default, Cruz will face off with Crawley. The three Giants receivers were on the field for all 30 of New York's pass plays in Week 1, so all are in play for starting lineups this week.

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Bears WRs Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White vs. Eagles CBs Nolan Carroll III, Ron Brooks and Jalen Mills


The Eagles' top corner, Leodis McKelvin, is expected to miss this week's game with a hamstring injury, which only adds to what was already an advantageous matchup for Chicago's wide receivers. Jeffery will see Carroll most often, which is notable because he's a halfway decent corner, but Jeffrey will run about a quarter of his routes from the slot against Brooks and roughly a third against Mills, a seventh-round rookie. White's snap splits are about the same as Jeffrey, but he'll see more of Mills than he will Carroll. Nonetheless, expect Jay Cutler to target the rookie, which adds appeal to both Jeffrey and White this week.

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Rams WR Tavon Austin vs. Seahawks CB Jeremy Lane
Austin is coming off an epically inefficient Week 1 in which his receiving yardage (13) barely exceeded his targets (12). However, he might actually be a sneaky play against Seattle this week. After playing primarily on the perimeter last season, Austin ran 71 percent of his routes from the slot against San Francisco. Assuming that continues this week, Austin will be matched up with Jeremy Lane. Lane is a competent corner, but the key here is that Austin will avoid Richard Sherman on a majority of his routes. Meanwhile,Kenny Britt and Brian Quick will spend the day running routes against Sherman and DeShawn Shead, so obviously, avoid them in all formats.

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Patriots WR Julian Edelman vs. Dolphins CBs Bobby McCain and Xavien Howard
Edelman will generally run more than half of his routes from the slot, and a good chunk of his perimeter work comes on the right side of the formation. This means that he figures to see McCain while in the slot and the rookie Howard on upward of 85 percent of his routes this weekend. Edelman caught all seven of his targets in Jimmy Garoppolo's first start last week, so his efficiency obviously hasn't dipped much without Tom Brady. Edelman is a fringe WR2 play this week.

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[h=2]Tough matchups[/h]

Colts WR T.Y. Hilton vs. Broncos CB Chris Harris Jr. and Colts WR Donte Moncrief vs. Broncos CB Aqib Talib
When these teams met in Week 9 last season, Harris shadowed on 26 of Hilton's 31 routes and covered Moncrief 10 times. Talib covered Andre Johnsonon 16 of his 19 routes and Moncrief on 15 of his 30 routes. The Broncos' outstanding trio of corners is usually asked to shadow and should be fully expected to do the same in Week 2. Hilton worked from the slot 65 percent of the time last week, which is usually where Harris resides anyway. I fully expect Harris to be on Hilton a majority of the time this weekend. Meanwhile, the Moncrief/Talib matchup makes perfect sense from a size standpoint, as doesBradley Roby against Phillip Dorsett. The Colts wide receivers should be downgraded slightly in this matchup.

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Jaguars WR Allen Robinson vs. Chargers CB Jason Verrett
Verrett shadowed throughout the 2015 season and followed Jeremy Maclin around last week. In a Week 12 matchup with Jacksonville last season, Verrett shadowed on 46 of Robinson's 57 routes. Robinson scored a touchdown in the game, but was limited to five receptions and 56 yards on 11 targets. Following an inefficient opening-week performance, Robinson is a strong buy-low target, but inevitable shadow coverage from Verrett means it might be another week before he really explodes onto the fantasy scene this season. He's still a quality WR1 play, but doesn't have near the upside he does most weeks.

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Saints WR Brandin Cooks vs. Giants CB Janoris Jenkins and Saints WR Willie Snead vs. Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Cooks and Snead are coming off dominant Week 1 performances, but life won't be nearly as easy against the Giants' exceptional cornerback unit this week. Snead has taken over as the Saints' primary slot receiver, and Rodgers-Cromartie is now the Giants' slot corner. Those two will see plenty of each other in Week 2. Cooks, meanwhile, lines up all over the formation, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's shadowed by Jenkins, at least during the 60 percent of his routes that come on the perimeter. Jenkins had a successful Giants debut last week, when he shadowed on 28 of Dez Bryant's 43 routes, including 28 of 32 on the perimeter. Rookies Michael Thomas and Eli Apple figure to see a lot of each other out wide as well. Especially with New Orleans on the road, expectations for Cooks and Snead should be held in check this week.

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Titans WR Tajae Sharpe vs. Lions CB Darius Slay
Slay shadowed throughout the 2015 season and was on T.Y. Hilton on 16 of his 17 perimeter routes in Week 1. Sharpe clearly established himself as the Titans' top wide receiver last week, so he's a good bet to see Slay on nearly every one of his pass routes this weekend. Sharpe is already dealing with one of the league's lowest-volume passing attacks, so shadow coverage from one of the game's top cover corners is problematic. He's a fringe flex option, but nothing more.

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[h=2]Other projected shadow situations[/h]Bills WR Sammy Watkins vs. Jets CB Darrelle Revis
Revis shadowed on 57 of the 66 routes Watkins ran against the Jets last season. In those games, Watkins caught 14 of 22 targets for 150 yards and no touchdowns. Watkins' foot injury is a concern, but it's hard to downgrade him much after Revis was regularly beaten by A.J. Green in Week 1.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson
Peterson shadowed most weeks last season but did not in Week 1. I believe that move was specific to a game plan, and I suspect Peterson will be following around Evans this week. Evans obviously needs to be downgraded against one of the game's top corners.
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</article>Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry vs. Patriots CB Malcolm Butler, Dolphins WR Kenny Stills vs. Patriots CB Logan Ryan
In Week 8 last year, Ryan shadowed on 31 of Rishard Matthews' 45 routes. Butler shadowed on 32 of Landry's 43 routes (16 of 26 in the slot). In Week 17, Ryan shadowed on 37 of Matthews' 40 routes, and Butler shadowed on 16 of Landry's 33 routes (9 of 13 on perimeter). Landry caught 12 of 18 targets for 143 yards, and Matthews caught seven of 12 targets for 62 yards in those games. Dolphins' wide receivers combined for one touchdown during the two outings.

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Sneaky good matchups

• Falcons WR Mohamed Sanu vs. Raiders CB D.J. Hayden
  
• Cowboys WR Cole Beasley vs. Redskins CB Dashaun Phillips
  
• Packers WR Davante Adams vs. Vikings CB Trae Waynes

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Week 2 flex ranks: Top 100 RBs, WRs and TEs[/h]Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer

ESPN INSIDER


Time to start flexing again as we combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and a few tight ends for the Week 2 flex rankings. As always, these are for standard ESPN formats and there should be some minor alterations as the week progresses, with a player or two perhaps being downgraded to doubtful, so follow the news!
Good luck in Week 2!
1. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants: Must be extra excited to face the awful Saints defense. Only concern is whether the Saints keep up or not on the road.
2. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Never a concern here, home or road or anywhere.
3. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Mild concern with the ankle injury, but he played through aches and pains last season.
4. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Generally worth it against rival Pittsburgh.
5. David Johnson, RB, Cardinals: Clearly the touches will be there.
6. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Steelers: Enjoy this while it lasts, which is about two more weeks.
7. Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars
8. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans: Light on the yards in first game, but no worries overall. Brock Osweiler is fine.
9. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Even if this game results in fewer than 50 yards, I’m not going to panic. I think he’ll have an excellent season.
10. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: He’ll have an excellent season as well. Time for him to be consistent for four months.
11. Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders
12. Lamar Miller, RB, Texans: Just hope the large increase in touches doesn’t break him. No reason to believe that will occur.
13. Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs: And now he catches passes too. I’m assuming Jamaal Charles sits this week as well, but if plays, they share touches to some degree.
14. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Perhaps the Eagles' defense is legit, but we couldn’t tell from last week.
15. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys: At least he got the touches. He’s going to excel, don’t worry.
16. Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets
17. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
18. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams: It’s one game. The Rams will score this week. You can’t be so reactive to run from this guy so soon -- or ever, really.
19. Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints: It’s a fact that Drew Brees is not the same on the road. His owners don’t want to hear it, but it’s true. One top-10 QB finish on the road last season, and it’s a trend.
20. Matt Forte, RB, Jets: Didn’t quite expect that many rushing attempts, but his owners love it.
21. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks: Certainly we want to see Russell Wilsonplay, and play well.
22. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Go ahead and sell for 50 cents on the dollar, but it’s not wise. Things might not get better until Tony Romo returns, but he will.
23. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: Still minor concerns, I believe.
24. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
25. LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills
26. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers: Wasn’t sharing the important targets in Week 1.
27. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: If he’s not catching passes, then he’s not who we thought he’d be. But it’s still only one game.
28. Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders
29. DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans: Had two receiving touchdowns in his five-year career before adding two in Week 1. I’m thinking this isn’t a harbinger of what’s to come.
30. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots
31. Eric Decker, WR, Jets: Even in a game with only one catch, he scores a touchdown.
32. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons: Yeah, there’s a problem here. But he’s not an automatic bench guy now, either.
33. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: I’d try to sell before he misses a month or more with the foot issue, but hopefully I’m wrong.
34. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles: Isn’t just a slot guy anymore.
35. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Looks like he will play, and hopefully his hip injury is minor. For now I’m not picking up Cody Latimer.
36. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
37. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
38. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs
39. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins: Eleven targets in Week 1. He’s their top weapon.
40. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers
41. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: As of Thursday morning, I think he’s missing another week, if not more. But still, it’s a hamstring injury. No telling how many snaps he gets.
42. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins
43. Marvin Jones, WR, Lions
44. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
45. Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles
46. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers: Nothing personal, but I would sell high, for myriad reasons.
47. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: Not the best matchup for him.
48. Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants: This is the best matchup for him. I know he’s not the No. 1 for the Giants, but I want to move him up these rankings.
49. Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars
50. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals
51. Jeremy Langford, RB, Bears: Hardly efficient, but it’s obviously his job.
52. Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks: Averaged 2.7 yards per carry, but let’s be a bit patient. He’s starting again and we know what he’s capable of.
53. Arian Foster, RB, Dolphins: Have to think only injury can cost him the starting role.
54. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
55. Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants: Ran well the first week and has another friendly matchup.
56. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions: There could be a top-20 running back here.
57. Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers: There’s clearly a top-20 running back here, but I don’t assume Woodhead starts getting 12 targets per game just because Keenan Allen is gone.
58. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers: They could keep establishing this guy. He looked good in the first half of Week 1.
59. Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns: I don’t think the switch to Josh McCownhurts him one bit.
60. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans
61. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals
62. Travis Benjamin, WR, Chargers: Probably becoming a bit overrated now. He’s not a 100-catch guy.
63. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots
64. T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars: I didn’t rank Chris Ivory, though it would be nice to see what the breakdown of touches is when each is healthy. Yeldon is kind of average.
65. Golden Tate, WR, Lions
66. Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans: Get him now, before he’s gone in most leagues.
67. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos
68. Frank Gore, RB, Colts
69. Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens: Finally, a Raven. Watch this team score many points that few fantasy owners enjoy this week.
70. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
71. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
72. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Still the Browns running back getting most of the touches.
73. Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons: Still not the Falcons running back getting most of the touches.
74. John Brown, WR, Cardinals
75. Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders
76. Christine Michael, RB, Seahawks: Has his window already closed? Keep him owned just in case.
77. Matt Jones, RB, Redskins: What a mess. Maybe he simply isn’t any good. Don’t give up yet.
78. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals
79. Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Browns
80. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
81. Will Fuller, WR, Texans: Getting lots of single coverage and took advantage the first game.
82. Theo Riddick, RB, Lions: Wasn’t any more popular in the passing game than Abdullah, which is odd.
83. Willie Snead, WR, Saints: That was probably the best game he’ll have all season.
84. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Falcons: Ditto with him.
85. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks: Hopefully that was Lockett’s worst game.
86. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans: Five carries, 3 yards. Not what we expected.
87. Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers
88. Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings
89. Kevin White, WR, Bears
90. Shane Vereen, RB, Giants
91. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets: Guessing he’ll be more involved in offense moving ahead.


92. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: Have a feeling the Saints' defense will be watching the salsa dance, too.
93. Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens: Has been held to 35 receiving yards total in past three meetings with Browns, in case you were thinking about starting him.
94. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
95. James Starks, RB, Packers
96. Tavon Austin, WR, Rams
97. Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers: Has the skills, body to emerge as a top-30 guy.
98. James White, RB, Patriots
99. DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins: Doesn’t look right with him ranked here. Give it time.
100. Corey Coleman, WR, Browns

Others: Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles; Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers; Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers; Terrelle Pryor, WR, Browns; Terrance West, RB, Ravens; Steve Smith Sr., WR, Ravens; Travaris Cadet, RB, Saints; Torrey Smith, WR, 49ers; Eli Rogers, WR, Steelers; Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots; Alfred Morris, RB, Cowboys; Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders; Ka’Deem Carey, RB, Bears; Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos

 

[HacheMan]

'Battle of the Murrays' highlights Week 3 rankings


Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer

ESPN INSIDER

This Sunday’s "Murray Matchup" in Nashville is intriguing because, while it still seems awfully dangerous to invest in either Tennessee Titans newcomerDeMarco Murray or Oakland Raiders starter Latavius Murray as a safe RB2 option for fantasy purposes in the long term, the fact is they are playing well and the rookies don’t seem as ready for immediate impact as once thought. While each defense for this contest seems improved – well, the Raiders haven’t shown it yet – with so many running backs dealing with injuries, these Murrays will qualify as RB1 choices for many leagues, and one of them did so in our staff rankings.

Of course, if all you’re worried about is this week, you should be fine. After all, DeMarco Murray has turned his 37 touches through two games into 220 total yards. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown, but he matched his career receiving-touchdown total of two with his Week 1 outing. That felt fluky, but Murray followed it up with seven receptions in Week 2. A year ago in Philadelphia, his September start was dreadful, as his first 21 rushing attempts netted 11 yards. He had three games all season with seven or more targets. Not all has been great, though. Murray broke off a 67-yard run Sunday, but his other 11 rushing attempts totaled 22 yards, including a negative play for a safety, reminding us of the 2015 version.

Rookie Derrick Henry is a big fellow who should matter in goal-line and short-yardage situations at the least, and while he doesn’t look like a factor in the passing game, it’s easy to see how his touches will rise and Murray will become more flex option than surefire reliable fantasy starter. But we’re certainly not there yet. Don’t cut Henry yet if you can avoid it, because his future is bright, but this week, Murray is a smart option against a Raiders defense that hasn’t fared well so far, albeit against veteran quarterbacks in Drew Brees (at home) and Matt Ryan.

For Latavius Murray, one of seven players to rush for more than 1,000 yards last season, he achieved this mainly due to volume and not by excellence. He averaged 4 yards per rush, wasn’t efficient, and his performance waned down the stretch. It was easy to see how newcomer DeAndre Washington would matter. Murray was provided a mere eight rushing attempts on Sunday, after getting 14 the first week. He did score rushing touchdowns each time, but an average of 11 attempts per game is rather cautious. Last season, Murray averaged more than 16 rushing attempts per contest.

Diminutive Jalen Richard, breaker of the 75-yard touchdown scamper in Week 1, is clearly involved, and Washington (also on the shorter side at 5-foot-8) is averaging 5 yards per carry, though he hasn’t been used as a receiver much. I think that will change. The Raiders don’t need to use their Murray as much this season, but so far, so good, and the schedule is friendly at times before the bye week, with San Diego, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville looming. It also features Kansas City, Denver and, after the bye, the Texans. I’d look into selling high on each of the Murrays in the next month, so be prepared.

Quarterback ranking buzz: As for the Derek Carr-Marcus Mariota matchup, it’s true that Carr is off to a terrific statistical start and hasn’t turned the ball over yet, but I like the new Titans' defense. And Mariota, similarly, feels more like a streamer than a top-10 option. … I have nary a concern about Brees for this week, as my top-three ranking shows, since it’s a home game against a defense he sees twice per season and generally shreds easily. Yeah, sometimes it’s really that simple. Of course, I like Matt Ryan as well in this game, apparently more than most. Passing yards and touchdown passes for Ryan in his past five appearances in the Superdome: 295-2, 322-1, 304-2, 411-3, 373-1. Rely on Ryan. … Is the Giants defense really that much improved? Kirk Cousinsthrows so much, it might not matter, but yeah, I couldn’t get Cousins close to my top 10. … Russell Wilson has 11 fantasy points in each of the first two weeks. I do trust the guy, but he’s obviously hurt and dealing with a sub-par offensive line too. Cam Newton just shredded this 49ers' defense. Wilson should as well. But I couldn’t give him top-10 status over trash-time specialist Blake Bortlesand Eli Manning – with those weapons, Eli will be fine -- until I see more. … Don’t use Carson Wentz yet. Pittsburgh’s defense is an upgrade on Cleveland/Chicago, and it could be a shootout, but it’s still a big risk. It’s been a lot of short passes or long ones his receivers are letting hit the ground.

Running back ranking buzz:Might seem odd to go with Devonta Freeman as a top-10 guy when he’s sharing touches, but he’s still getting enough touches, and that’s what matters. Plus, you might have heard, the Falcons travel to New Orleans. Tevin Coleman can be viewed as an RB2/flex as well! …Melvin Gordon as a top-10 guy? Didn’t expect to be doing that, well, ever, but despite the signings of Griff Whalen and Dexter McCluster, he’s the workhorse. It’s volume and goal-line work, and the Colts rarely stop the run. The Colts have already permitted a league-high 64 standard fantasy points to running backs. … Isaiah Crowell and Rashad Jennings as RB2 choices? Not saying I feel particularly good about this, but there aren’t enough options. Do you trust Matt Jones more? A Seattle option? Fozzy Whittaker? This is what we’ve got, and at least Crowell/Jennings are getting the rushing attempts. …Jamaal Charles is supposed to play, which is awesome for him, but I’m not excited about making him an RB2 or close to it. So I didn’t. It holds Spencer Ware back a bit, as well. … Carlos Hyde wasn’t playable in Carolina, and it doesn’t get easier in Seattle. … I could see moving Miami’s Kenyan Drake up in the rankings if we get any words of confidence from their coaches about his role. I did not rank injured Arian Foster, and I don’t view Jay Ajayi as a strong fantasy flex option yet.

Wide receiver ranking buzz: Never many surprises at this position, as the top guys are mainly matchup-proof, but I admit that as an A.J. Green owner, I don’t expect greatness in Denver. Still not going to sit him. … Dez Bryant had the targets, catches and yards in Week 2, so those panicking can settle down. … Yes, I think it’s fair to view Travis Benjamin as a safe WR2 for the good matchups, and this is another good matchup. … Then again, the Chargers should give up yards too. I admit I might be underrating the Colts' receivers this week. Phillip Dorsett in a deep league could make sense. … Stefon Diggs at Carolina is not friendly. Kudos to him and Sam Bradford for working together so nicely last week, but one of them is likely to miss a game or more at some point. And it’s not Diggs. … Sammy Watkins is at home for his toughie against Arizona, and I can’t recall the last time he wasn’t a WR2 for me, but show us something, Sammy. … At this point the big three Cardinals receivers have separated for value, and it’s all Larry Fitzgerald at the top.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 3's best fantasy football free-agent finds


Field Yates
ESPN Insider


A tweet late Sunday night from colleague and NFL Insider extraordinaire Adam Schefter encapsulated one of the themes from Week 2 of the NFL season. There were seemingly innumerable running back injuries that will continue to bear monitoring as Week 3 of the NFL season progresses.
Among the trickle-down impacts of these injuries is what they mean for fantasy football. We'll dive into shuffling backfields and more in this week's waiver-wire column.

As usual, only players owned in less than 50 percent of leagues on ESPN.com are eligible for this column.

Running back fill-ins

Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Carolina Panthers (1.9 percent). Yes, Artis-Payne was inactive in Week 2 and Fozzy Whittaker dashed for 100 yards on 16 carries. Artis-Payne was inactive because he offers a close skill set to Jonathan Stewart but doesn't add as much special-teams and change-of-pace value as Whittaker. He had 33 carries in three games to close out 2015, and I'd expect Artis-Payne to get first dibs on carries until Stewart returns from a hamstring injury (the early indication from head coach Ron Rivera is Stewart will miss a week or two).

Fozzy Whittaker, RB, Carolina Panthers (.8 percent). But I'm not entirely ignoring Whittaker. He's going to have value in this offense, and he's a worthy consideration in deeper leagues with PPR scoring. It's rarely crystal clear how a team will plan to make up for an injury to a key player, so if I had to choose one Panthers back it would be Artis-Payne, but Whittaker is certainly a name to note, too.

Matt Asiata, RB, Minnesota Vikings (.2 percent). While we await more information on the timetable of Adrian Peterson's return from what head coach Mike Zimmer announced as a torn right meniscus, the attention also turns to the next man up in Minnesota. In 2014, when Peterson was suspended for 15 games, Asiata compiled a respectable line of 882 combined rushing and receiving yards to go along with 10 total touchdowns. He's not as talented or explosive as Jerick McKinnon, but he seems like a better bet for goal-line duties and should see double-digit touches on a per-game basis.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings (24.1 percent). I think McKinnon will be among the most added players this week, as he's a terrific athlete whose role should increase. And while I unquestionably believe his ceiling is higher than Asiata's if he gets the chance to see a consistent and expanded workload, a lack of touchdowns is a bit of a concern. In the aforementioned 2014 season, McKinnon had 140 touches (to Asiata's 208) but failed to find the end zone. Still, he's absolutely worth the add in any league.

Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins (44.1 percent). Identifying Ajayi's value is something of a riddle right now, as he was at one point on track to be the starter in Miami. He was left home from the team's Week 1 game in Seattle and then put the ball on the ground in Week 2. He had an OK stretch in 2015, but it's unclear how reliant Miami will be on him until Arian Foster (groin) returns to the field. He should be added in 12-team leagues or larger, but to begin the week I'm not confident he should be in my starting lineup.

Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins (1.5 percent). Drake needs to be mentioned amid questions about Ajayi's potential usage. He's an excellent pass-catcher who probably best fits as a third-down, up-tempo back. But with Foster's injury and Ajayi's ball-security issue in Week 2, perhaps Drake gets a shot at steadier work. He's an add in PPR leagues 12 teams or larger.

Dwayne Washington, RB, Detroit Lions (.3 percent). Washington, a rookie out of Washington, had a notable preseason and then plunged into the end zone as a short-yardage back in Week 1. With Ameer Abdullah (foot) banged up, Washington should see a role to help Theo Riddick in the Detroit backfield. In deep leagues, Washington is an intriguing add.


Other adds

Quincy Enunwa, WR, New York Jets (5.5 percent). He made this list last week and will continue to do so until he pushes past the 50 percent threshold. He has 13 catches through two games (on 14 total targets). The tight end is a virtually invisible part of the Jets' passing offense. There's room for three receivers to make a major impact, and he's great insurance if the knee injury suffered by Brandon Marshall in Week 2 limits his availability at all in Week 3.

Tyrell Williams, WR, San Diego Chargers (43.4 percent). A popular pickup last week as owners of Keenan Allen worked to replace him in their lineups, Williams showed well in Week 2, hauling in three passes, including a long score. He's fast and physical and should sustain an integral role in a passing offense that proved it can continue to click in Allen's absence.

Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts (40.3 percent). Another guy who is a repeat on this list from last week, Dorsett could have a large role in the near future, as Donte Moncrief deals with a shoulder issue. If Moncrief misses any games, Dorsett would become a borderline top-35 play against the Chargers this Sunday.

Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants (42.3 percent). It's great to see Cruz back on the field and making plays for the G-Men, as he had a critical late-game catch to propel New York to a game-winning field goal. In a deeper league, Cruz merits consideration given the Giants' heavy reliance on three-receiver sets.

Shane Vereen, RB, New York Giants (35.6 percent). When the Giants look to pick up the tempo (or are playing from behind), the back that likely will see plenty of runs is Vereen. He's an excellent pass-catcher but also led the team in rushes in Week 2 (14 in total). If you play in a points-per-reception league, Vereen could come into play as a flex running back. Moreover, Rashad Jenningshas a left-wrist issue to keep an eye on.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Detroit Lions (16.1 percent). Among the nine quarterbacks who have thrown the ball 79 times or more through two weeks, I'd wager that Matthew Stafford is one of the three safer bets to sustain that pace of usage. That means good things for a lot of Detroit pass-catchers, including the ever-steady Boldin. A PPR add.

Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (23.8 percent). Game flow helped Boyd a bit in Week 2, as Andy Dalton set a career high with 54 passing attempts in a catch-up effort vs. Pittsburgh. But Boyd -- who had eight targets and caught six passes -- has enough talent and opportunity ahead of him to stash him on your bench. The upside is there.

Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins (3.2 percent). We saw quite a bit of Crowder as a rookie in 2015, and the early returns in 2016 are also promising: He has six catches in each of Washington's first two games. He's not going to be a big-play threat, and he's not going to snag a bunch of touchdowns. But the volume of his workload makes him a PPR asset to add.

Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens (12.1 percent). A hat tip to Matthew Berry for this one: We don't know when Dixon will be healthy enough to make his NFL debut, but he's an intriguing stash on your bench. The Ravens have the fifth-worst rushing offense on a per-carry basis early on this season. Dixon is a compelling talent who could earn a role sooner rather than later.


Tight end fill-ins


Note: If you have Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz or Coby Fleener, who has struggled massively for New Orleans so far, here are some tight end options to consider.


Jacob Tamme, TE, Atlanta Falcons (10.8 percent). Tamme has either tied or led the Falcons in targets in each of the team's first two games this season. He hauled in a Week 2 touchdown pass and is a nice Week 3 option facing a Saints defense that -- despite a solid showing this past Sunday -- is a favorable matchup.

Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens (10.5 percent). It's great to see Pitta back on the field after an extended absence due to hip issues. He led the Ravens with 12 targets in Week 2, reminding us that he can be a terrific middle-of-the-field weapon.

Jesse James, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (20.1 percent). James is a tough cover because of his size (he's all of 6-foot-7) and has seen a steady role through two weeks (12 targets already). Playing in one of the best passing offenses in football is a boost for any pass-catcher.

Trey Burton, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (.3 percent). The former college quarterback (turned utility player at Florida) has always had terrific athleticism. He hasn't always had a consistent offensive role, however, as he had just three career catches entering Week 2. With Ertz out, Burton managed five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown. He's a deeper-league fill-in until Ertz returns.

 

[HacheMan]

Top fantasy football streaming options for Week 3: Joe Flacco, Quincy Enunwa

• Jim McCormick
• Ken Daube
  
  
  Each week of the NFL campaign, Jim McCormick and Ken Daube sift through the deeper options at each position with an eye on identifying streaming fantasy commodities with valuable matchups to consider.
  Do you need replacement options for running back Danny Woodhead? Are you still waiting on quarterback Tom Brady to return from suspension? We have some choice names to consider for those seeking widely available options at each position.

• 
  Quarterback
  
  Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
  Despite being owned in just 26.3 percent of ESPN.com leagues, Flacco should be on your radar if you need a deep play at quarterback this week. Flacco draws theJacksonville Jaguars, who, despite the noise made during the offseason about having an improved defense, haven't jelled just yet. Through two games, only theAtlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders have allowed more passing touchdowns than the six scores the Jaguars have surrendered. With no real running game behind him, Flacco will throw early and often against this vulnerable defense. - K.D.
• 
  Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
  Tannehill can produce via the run and enjoyed a nice rapport with both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker in Week 2. The real selling point for those streaming at quarterback is the matchup, as facing the Cleveland Browns' generous defense has proved beneficial for those streaming quarterbacks. Eagles rookie signal-caller Carson Wentz produced 19 fantasy points in standard leagues in Week 1, while Ravens veteran Flacco just turned in 16 fantasy points in a comeback win in Cleveland. With the Browns sending out a raw rookie behind center, favorable field position and the potential for increased possessions all drive a strong projection for Tannehill in the team's home opener on Sunday. - J.M.
• Running back
  
  Fozzy Whittaker, Carolina Panthers
  Whittaker opens the week owned in less than 1 percent of ESPN.com leagues, but that is sure to change dramatically. With Jonathan Stewart dealing with a hamstring injury that will reportedly cost him at least a week, Whitaker will find himself in at least a timeshare. Don't be too intimidated by the Minnesota Vikings' defense, as the Tennessee Titans demonstrated in Week 1 that the Vikings could be attacked via short passes out of the backfield. As Whittaker is the best receiver in the Panthers' backfield, project him to receive at least five targets in addition to his share of the rushing totals. - K.D.
• 
  James White, New England Patriots
  With rookie Jacoby Brissett likely to start for New England on a short week, we can expect a deliberately conservative passing offense from the Patriots. In replacing an injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week, Brissett's average pass traveled just 1 yard downfield, and none traveled more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage, per ESPN Stats & Info. Such short-yardage attempts could see White serve an important role on passing downs. It's worth noting White ranked second behind only the Bucs' Charles Sims -- whom we also like as a streaming option this week if Doug Martin misses time -- in fantasy points per route run with a robust .538 per route in PPR scoring in 2015. Such per-route efficiency reveals White could shine if afforded more work. - J.M.
  
  
  Wide receiver
  
  Quincy Enunwa, New York Jets
  While Brandon Marshall has a bet with Antonio Brown about who finishes the season with the most receiving yards, and Eric Decker continues his high frequency of catching touchdown passes, Enunwa is quietly emerging as a key cog in the Jets' passing attack. Through two games, Enunwa leads the Jets in catch rate, as he has secured 13 of his 14 targets. With a tough Kansas City Chiefsdefense on the horizon, look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to continue to take advantage of the mismatch that Enunwa presents for opposing teams' nickel cornerbacks. - K.D.
• 
  Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins
• It will admittedly require a bold fantasy manager to deploy Stills in lineups this week, but there are some strong indicators the move could pay off. Stills' average target has traveled 24.7 air yards this season, and he gets an entirely favorable matchup against a Browns secondary that proves exploitable past Joe Haden. Stills is clearly a boom-or-bust big-play threat, but he's run the most routes on the Dolphins through two weeks, and it really takes only one vertical connection with Tannehill to produce worthy WR3 numbers. - J.M.
• 
  Tight end
  
  Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
  With all due respect to Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon, the loss of Adrian Peterson will require the Vikings to rely on the right arm of Sam Bradford more than originally planned. While that certainly looks to provide a significant bump to Stefon Diggs, the way Rudolph will be used should not be ignored. Without the power of Peterson in the red zone, Rudolph's size should become more valuable. At 6-foot-6, Rudolph is clearly the largest target for Bradford, which explains why Bradford looked Rudolph's way on the only end zone throw he attempted from the red zone against the Green Bay Packers. - K.D.
• 
  Clive Walford, Oakland Raiders
  With the Raiders allowing the highest passer rating at more than 400 yards per game to opposing arms, Derek Carr again could be forced to pass the team into contention for a third straight week. Widely available and an increasingly important part of the Raiders' passing game, Walford was targeted on 24.1 percent of his routes in Week 2 en route to the first six-catch game of his career. The Titans have surrendered the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends since the start of last season, evidence Walford could shine as a streaming option at this shallow position. - J.M.
• 
  D/ST
  
  New York Giants
  If you are desperate for a streaming play at D/ST, try the Giants. After investing heavily in acquiring new talent for the defensive unit, the Giants stifled Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints at home in Week 2. This week, the G-Men draw the Washington Redskins, who have surrendered five sacks and three turnovers in their first two games. When you factor in that those poor offensive performances were against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cowboys -- neither team known for being a defensive stalwart -- there's some nice upside to this streaming play. - K.D.
  Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  Despite them having a net negative fantasy point total for the season so far, I'm endorsing the Bucs based almost solely on the potential of the matchup, as the Rams are traveling across the country with one of the league's weakest offenses in tow. The Bucs have ceded the fourth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backfields since the start of last season and just fewer than 3 yards per carry to the likes of David Johnson, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman -- so the talented Todd Gurley again could struggle to find efficiency against this stout front seven. Chasing D/ST groups positioned as home favorites in games with low point totals has proved to be effective over the larger sample, thus my interest in streaming this Tampa defense. - J.M.
• 
  Individual defensive players
  
  Linebacker
  
  Preston Brown, Buffalo Bills
  This offseason, coach Rex Ryan chose Brown over Nigel Bradham as the interior linebacker to build his front seven around. Brown has been entrusted with a 95.3 percent snap rate through two weeks and has responded with the highest grade among inside linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Along with position peer Zach Brown on the Bills -- who is thriving with a 90 percent snap rate and ranks second in run-stop percentage (rate of defensive stops made during run plays) among inside linebackers -- the "Browns" on the Bills are enjoying breakout seasons and should be acquired even in shallow IDP leagues for this upcoming meeting with the Arizona Cardinals. If he's still out there in your league, the Bucs'Kwon Alexander leads all interior linebackers in run-stop percentage and is tied for the league lead in tackles. With the run-heavy Rams coming to town, Alexander could notch another double-digit day in the tackle department. - J.M.
  Defensive back
  
  T.J. Ward, Denver Broncos
  
  
  One of Denver's enforcers in the secondary, Ward leads all safeties in Pro Football Focus' pass-rush productivity metric, as he's rushed the pocket on a rewarding and uniquely high 10.5 percent of passing downs already this season. In addition to upside as a pass-rusher, Ward has spent more than a quarter of his snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, so we can expect a healthy tackle rate to persist for the hard-hitting veteran. For a lesser-known name to consider, the Redskins' David Bruton Jr. has been on the field for 96.4 percent of the team's defensive snaps and could be busy chasing down the Giants' deep and talented crew of receivers this week. - J.M.
  Defensive line
  
  Leonard Williams, New York Jets
  Scoop up Williams if he's floating in free agency in your league, as he is tied for second in the league in pressures among defensive linemen with Miami's Mario Williams -- whom we suggest as an acquisition in deeper IDP formats -- behind only All-Pro Aaron Donald. Leonard Williams has compiled three sacks already on the season and could add to this total against a Chiefs offense that has shown to be surprisingly pass-heavy to start the season. - J.M.
  

 

[HacheMan]

Is it time to buy or sell Andrew Luck, Eddie Lacy and Amari Cooper?

KC Joyner
ESPN Insider


Twenty-three players or defense/special teams posted 20 or more fantasy points through the Sunday night game in Week 3. That's more than two per team in a 10-team league, and it's worth noting another eight players scored 18 or more points.

This scoring explosion had to make most fantasy owners happy, but the unfortunate truth is there are many upper-tier players who are not performing at anywhere near the level they were projected to reach coming into the season.

So will those disappointing scoring trends continue for these players? Let's take a closer look, starting with a quarterback who once finished in the top two in single-season scoring.
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Andrew Luck's struggles may continue

Luck ranked fifth in quarterback average draft position (ADP) in ESPN leagues and justified that selection in Week 1 with a 35-point game against Detroit. Since then, Luck tallied nine and 13 points, respectively, in contests against Denver and San Diego and thus has his fantasy owners wondering if or when things are going to turn around.

One key element to Luck's point decline is his performance on vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). In 2014, when Luck finished second in fantasy points, he racked up 144 fantasy points on vertical throws and averaged nine vertical points per game, totals that both ranked second among quarterbacks.

This season has not lived up to that lofty standard. Luck has posted only 22 fantasy points on vertical passes in three games, for an average of 7.7 points per game. These marks rank eighth and seventh, respectively, among quarterbacks, but they may be somewhat misleading since 19 of Luck's 22 vertical points occurred in the aforementioned Week 1 game against the Lions. His three vertical points since then are tied for 31st.

The schedule indicates there may not be many opportunities for extremely high vertical production during the next six weeks. In that time frame, the Colts face two teams that rank in the top eight in vertical passing yards allowed (Houston and Jacksonville) and three more teams that rank 15th or better (Kansas City, Chicago and Tennessee). The only highly favorable matchup in this period is a matchup against a Green Bay defense that currently ranks 30th in this category.

Luck is capable of hitting big plays against any defense, but this long string of contests against foes that are not favorable means the odds may be against Luck returning to his elite form. It's never a good idea to sell low on a player, so Luck owners should wait for him to post one upper-tier game and then consider selling high at that point.

Eddie Lacy is primed for a turnaround

Lacy heads into the Packers' Week 4 bye having scored 22 points in three games. That isn't exactly the scoring level his fantasy owners expected when drafting him an average of 25th in ESPN leagues.

Subpar run-blocking has been a big part of the problem for Lacy this season. Heading into Week 3, Green Bay's offense had posted a 35.7 percent mark in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offensive blocking wall gives its ball carriers good run-blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the offense to disrupt a rush attempt). That mark ranked 24th in the league and was nearly two percentage points behind Green Bay's 37.6 percent GBR in 2015.

The Packers started showing progress in this metric in their Week 3 matchup against the Lions by posting a 40 percent GBR.
Lacy has also shown a lot more burst in his step this season. Evidence for this can be found in his 9.1-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good run-blocking. This is a significant step above Lacy's 7.9 GBYPA in 2015, which ranked tied for 24th among running backs with 100 or more total carries. Another notable element is Lacy has posted a double-digit GBYPA in two of Green Bay's three games. Hitting the double-digit level in GBYPA has historically proven to be an indicator of elite performance in this metric.

Add all of this up and it means that Lacy's owners should stay patient with him even through Green Bay's Week 4 bye. Those who are in leagues in which Lacy ends up on the trading block should definitely put together a representative offer, as the asking price is likely to be close to as low as it will get the rest of the year.

Amari Cooper's vertical production improvement

It's hard to view Cooper's seven- and six-point games the past two weeks as anything other than disappointing duds for someone widely viewed as a borderline WR1 before the season.

Before giving up on him, consider how Cooper's vertical and stretch vertical production this season compare to his 2015 totals.
So far this season, Cooper has seen 13 vertical targets and gained 191 yards on those throws. These numbers and the ones listed below include penalty plays such as pass interference and defensive holding, as those yards are barometers of downfield production even if they don't count as fantasy points. That prorates to 69 vertical targets for 1,019 yards during the course of a 16-game season.


Cooper has been on the receiving end of a stretch vertical target (an aerial traveling 20 or more yards downfield) on five occasions and has gained 102 yards on those throws. That pace for a 16-game schedule equals 27 targets for 544 yards.
Now look how those vertical and stretch vertical paces compare to Cooper's 2015 numbers at those route depth levels:

Vertical: 58 targets, 771 yards

Stretch vertical: 19 targets, 424 yards

It is clear Cooper is being utilized on downfield throws even more often than he was last season. The caveat is that he has scored zero touchdowns on vertical or stretch vertical throws this season, as compared to his five vertical and four stretch vertical touchdowns last season.

The larger vertical and stretch vertical paces are no guarantee that a fantasy production spike will occur for Cooper, but given that Cooper hit paydirt regularly last season and set an Alabama single-season record for touchdown receptions in 2014 (16), it sure does lean the percentages quite heavily in that direction. This means he should be considered a definite hold prospect for his fantasy owners and a very good buy-low candidate in leagues where he ends up on the trading block.

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy 32: Key Week 4 tips on every team

Mike Clay

ESPN INSIDER


Below are 32 notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams from a fantasy perspective. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for Week 4. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OTD." OTD stands for opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an OTD of 3.0, it means that a league average player who saw the same number of targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals - John Brown totaled two receptions for 22 yards and no touchdowns on six targets during Arizona's first two games but rebounded to the tune of six receptions and 70 yards on 11 targets in Week 3. Is this an indication that Brown has returned to his 2015 form? A deeper look suggests not. Brown was on the field for 73 percent of the team's pass plays, which was more than Week 1 (70 percent) and Week 2 (49 percent) but still a much smaller role than 2015 (90 percent). Considering Brown is both a good receiver and played so often in 2014 and 2015, it's hard to imagine his role not increasing eventually, but for the time being, he's no more than a flex flier.

Atlanta Falcons - As sell-high opportunities go, they don't get much clearer than Atlanta right now. The Falcons put up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 35 on Oakland and 45 on New Orleans. Matt Ryan is the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy. Tevin Coleman is coming off a three-touchdown game and sits fifth among running backs in fantasy points despite playing second fiddle to Devonta Freeman. Speaking of which, the reigning top-scoring fantasy back sits 12th at the position in fantasy points after eclipsing 200 yards from scrimmage against the Saints. As great as all of that sounds, it's unsustainable, especially when considering the Falcons' next three opponents: Carolina, Denver and Seattle. Ouch. The Falcons have Julio Jones and a good running back duo, but this offense isn't much better than the mediocre unit from 2015. Expect a major drop in production as the competition gets tougher.

Baltimore Ravens - Steve Smith Sr. has yet to find the end zone this season, but his usage suggests a big game is right around the corner. Smith caught eight of 11 targets for 87 yards in Week 3 and is enjoying a team-high 22 percent target share so far this season. Mike Wallace might be getting the headlines (and touchdowns), but Smith is Joe Flacco's top target. On the negative side, Smith has yet to see a target while within 20 yards of the goal line. He'll need to generate more work near the end zone or he simply won't be able to push into the WR3 discussion.

Buffalo Bills - Charles Clay was once in the TE1 conversation, but he simply hasn't performed as of late despite a significant role in the Bills' offense. Clay is second on the team with 12 targets and has been on the field for 84 of the Bills' 91 pass plays. Clay was fantasy's No. 7 scoring tight end with Miami back in 2013, but we've seen a progressive decline in target volume and fantasy production over the past two-plus seasons. Clay should be on waivers in leagues that start one tight end.

Carolina Panthers - Jonathan Stewart missed the Panthers' Week 3 game with a hamstring injury, which gave us a look at the team's recipe for replacing its lead back. Cameron Artis-Payne (27 snaps) clearly benefited the most, posting 58 yards on 13 touches against a tough Vikings defense. True to form, Fozzy Whittaker (34 snaps) maintained a change-of-pace role, posting 56 yards on 10 touches. Mike Tolbert (17 snaps) was used sparingly and racked up 19 yards on four touches. Should Stewart miss any additional time, Artis-Payne is the man you want in standard leagues, and Whittaker (who was targeted six times) is the slightly better play in PPR.

Chicago Bears - Kevin White's career hasn't exactly started with a bang, but it's not for a lack of volume. White has racked up a team-high 26 targets, which works out to a massive 26 percent target share. The second-year receiver has turned the usage into 132 yards and no touchdowns on 13 receptions. White sports a 13.9 average depth of target, and three end zone targets have powered him to a decent 1.2 OTD. So White is seeing a lot of targets, including high-value looks, as well as the occasional deep look. Even in Chicago's struggling offense, the pieces are here for a breakout. Scoop White up and add him to your bench if he gets cut loose this week.

Cincinnati Bengals - Jeremy Hill continues to struggle with efficiency (3.6 yards per carry during the past two seasons), but he sure has a knack for finding paydirt. Hill scored 12 touchdowns last season and now has three this season after finding the end zone twice against a tough Denver defense in Week 3. Hill has played 15 fewer snaps than Giovani Bernardthis season and remains a touchdown-dependent RB2 in non-PPR leagues.

Cleveland Browns - It's been a while since a player has handled a full-on "slash" role in the NFL, but that's exactly what we saw fromTerrelle Pryor against Miami on Sunday. Pryor completed three of five pass attempts for 35 yards, ran for 21 yards and a touchdown on four attempts and caught eight of 14 targets for 144 yards. Pryor was the week's No. 4 scoring fantasy receiver and sits 17th at the position this season. Pryor has now enjoyed an absurd 31 percent target share, which clearly shows he's playing a massive role, especially with Corey Coleman out with a hand injury. Granted, Josh Gordon's Week 5 return will put a dent in Pryor's fantasy upside, but his multidimensional usage increases his floor. Pryor is a WR2 against Washington this week and figures to land, at least, in flex territory once Gordon returns. He should be owned in 10- and 12-team leagues.

Dallas Cowboys - Remember last week when I said Ezekiel Elliottlooked ordinary? Well, ignore that. The rookie looked the part of this year's fourth overall pick when he gashed the Bears for 140 yards on 30 carries (4.7 YPC). Elliott still hasn't done much as a receiver, but he did catch both of his targets for 20 yards against Chicago. Elliott has been on the field for 66 percent of Dallas' snaps and has handled 73 percent of the designed runs this season. His worst weekly finish among backs was 21st back in Week 1 and he continues to trend upward. Moving forward, Elliott is a fringe top-five fantasy back.

Denver Broncos - Trevor Siemian threw one touchdown during his first two starts but delivered four scores and 312 yards at Cincinnati in Week 3. Despite the big game, Siemian is not on the verge of a fantasy breakout. He's been solid thus far but is operating in a low-volume, run-first offense that simply isn't going to score consistently through the air. Siemian is still no more than a back-end QB2, but his competent play is good news for the prospects of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

Detroit Lions - Marvin Jones entered Week 3 without a touchdown this season, but his 28 percent target share suggested he was on the verge of a big game. He delivered and then some against Green Bay. Jones hauled in six of eight targets for 205 yards and two touchdowns and is now the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy. Is it time to sell high? I don't think so. Jones is, by far, the top target in a high-volume, pass-first Detroit offense that ranks fourth in the league in touchdowns. Hold onto your midround steal and ride him to the fantasy playoffs.

Green Bay Packers - Jordy Nelson is back. The veteran has four touchdowns this season, all of which have come on an NFL-high six end zone targets. Nelson has also seen targets while at opponents' 5-, 6- and 8-yard line, confirming his massive upside near the goal line. Nelson (2.7) trails only Larry Fitzgerald (3.0) in receiving OTD on the year. Nelson has been on the field for 102 of Green Bay's 110 pass plays this season and is enjoying a 31 percent target share. He's a rock-solid WR1.

Houston Texans - Lamar Miller is averaging 3.6 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone this season, but volume certainly hasn't been an issue for the Texans' lead back. Miller's 74 carries tie him withLeGarrette Blount for most in the NFL. Miller sits fourth in the league with 270 rushing yards, and his 10 receptions are 11th most among running backs. So why is Miller only 20th in fantasy points among backs? It's a lack of scoring opportunities. Miller carried the ball from the opponent's 3-yard line back in Week 2, but otherwise Houston has zero carries inside opponents' 12-yard line this season. Some regression to the mean will kick in here, which makes Miller a sneaky name to buy this week.

Indianapolis Colts - Jack Doyle has now seen at least four targets in each of the Colts' first three games, but he's unlikely to provide consistent fantasy value as a part-time player. Doyle has run a route on 61 (or 45 percent) of the Colts' 137 pass plays this season. That includes 19 (or 49 percent) of 39 possible routes with Donte Moncrief sidelined in Week 3. Doyle hasn't been targeted within 5 yards of the end zone since scoring on both Week 1 end zone targets. Behind T.Y. Hilton, Phillip Dorsett, Dwayne Allen and evenChester Rogers in terms of passing-game reps, Doyle is no more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.

Jacksonville Jaguars - T.J. Yeldon wasn't given much credit for a solid rookie campaign, and he hasn't exactly earned praise here in 2016 either. After an eight-touch, 28-yard performance against Baltimore in Week 3, Yeldon sits at 34 carries for 84 yards (2.5 YPC) and one touchdown this season. Yeldon's 18 targets are the third most among running backs, but he's converted the workload into only 55 yards. The volume is nice, but Yeldon has not been productive, and Chris Ivory (13 touches against Baltimore) has returned to the fold. Yeldon is a fine name for your bench, but he's a shaky flex option right now.

Kansas City Chiefs - It's been a fairly quiet start to 2016 for Jeremy Maclin, but there is plenty of reason for optimism. Maclin has been on the field for 95 percent of the Chiefs' offensive plays, which is way up from the 83 percent he averaged last year. He's run 96 percent of all possible pass routes (89 percent last year) and has handled 26 percent of the targets (28 percent). Maclin has been targeted twice while within 10 yards of the opponent's goal line but saw 14 targets in that category last year. Maclin's usage has been nearly the same as when he finished as fantasy's No. 17-scoring receiver last year. It's fair to expect a rebound.

Los Angeles Rams - Coach Jeff Fisher said during the offseason thatTavon Austin would get even more work this year and the first three weeks show that he wasn't kidding. Austin handled an 18 percent target share last year, but that has spiked to a ridiculous 33 percent in 2016. Austin averaged 5.2 targets per game and eclipsed seven targets only once all of last season. This year, he's averaging 10 per game and has at least eight in every game. Despite an ugly 47 percent catch rate, Austin sits 38th in fantasy points among wide receivers thanks to the massive volume. If this keeps up, he'll surely provide WR3 numbers moving forward.

Miami Dolphins - Arian Foster missed Sunday's game with a groin injury, which gave us a look at a few of the team's younger players at running back. Rookie Kenyan Drake (25 snaps) led the unit with nine carries for 37 yards and added a pair of receptions for 11 yards. Jay Ajayi (18 snaps) posted 28 yards and a touchdown on seven carries. Isaiah Pead (13 snaps, five touches) and Damien Williams (10 snaps, four touches) also played a part. Needless to say, Miami is utilizing a full-on committee, which grossly limits the fantasy production of any of these players. Drake is the best Week 4 play, but life won't be easy at Cincinnati.

Minnesota Vikings - It's like 2014 all over again. Adrian Peterson is out for an extended period of time, which leaves Minnesota with theJerick McKinnon/Matt Asiata backfield duo. Asiata got the start in Week 3, but it was McKinnon who clearly led the unit. The 2014 third-round pick touched the ball on 17 of his 35 snaps but was limited to 47 yards against a stout Panthers defense. Asiata, meanwhile, played 19 snaps and was limited to 19 yards on seven touches. McKinnon is clearly the man to own here, but note that the Vikings' upcoming slate includes the Giants and Texans, both of whom have performed well against the run.

New England Patriots - LeGarrette Blount found the end zone twice against Houston and is now tied for the NFL lead in carries (74) and rushing touchdowns (four). He also leads the league with 295 rushing yards. As productive as Blount has been, it's time to sell high. Blount has yet to see a single target, which is not something that figures to change much once Tom Brady returns. And once Brady is back, New England will surely pass the ball more often. Yes, the offense will be a bit more effective, but the Patriots have scored 72 percent of their offensive touchdowns through the air over the past two years. They sit at 44 percent through Week 3. Additionally, Dion Lewisis a candidate to return around midseason, and he handled seven carries per game last season. Plain and simple, Blount is at his ceiling right now, and that's always the time to evaluate the trade market.

New Orleans Saints - Coby Fleener was a big fantasy disappointment through Week 2, but he bounced back in a big way against Atlanta on Monday night. Fleener hauled in seven of 11 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. Fleener is suddenly 14th at the position in fantasy points and is averaging a healthy 7.3 targets per game this season. Even if Fleener lacks efficiency, the Saints' high-volume, pass-heavy, high-scoring offense is sure to generate a ton of fantasy production. Moving forward, Fleener's massive ceiling keeps him in the TE1 mix.

New York Giants - Eli Manning threw three touchdowns in Week 1 but has registered only one during his past two games. Manning has, however, reached 350 passing yards in both of those games, and let us not forget that he finished one off the NFL lead with 35 passing scores last season. And that was with Dwayne Harris working the slot, as opposed toSterling Shepard here in 2016. Manning is a great bet to rebound, but it might not come until after a tough Week 4 trip to Minnesota. Moving forward, he's a back-end QB1.

New York Jets - Brandon Marshall has yet to score a touchdown this season, but a closer look at his usage suggests it's a fluke. Marshall, who leads the NFL in receiving OTD (53.6) since 2011, sits ninth in the league in the category through three weeks of play. Marshall's 2.1 mark suggests he should have closer to two scores this season. Marshall has yet to catch any of his five end zone targets after hauling in nine of 21 last season. Marshall wasn't 100 percent healthy in Week 3, but he still ran 44 of 45 possible routes and was targeted 10 times. Touchdown regression will kick in soon, so he's a safe hold or buy low.

Oakland Raiders - Michael Crabtree finished as fantasy's No. 20 wide receiver last season, but the veteran was more of a consistent flex option than he was a high-ceiling producer. We've seen more of the same here in 2016, as Crabtree has already posted at least 87 yards or a touchdown in each of his three outings, but has posted 24th-, 36th-, and 20th-place weekly finishes. Crabtree is used primarily as a possession receiver, which limits his upside but makes him a bit more appealing in PPR formats. He's a solid flex option in standard leagues and a WR3 in PPR.

Philadelphia Eagles - After weekly finishes of 11th and 23rd against Cleveland and Chicago, respectively, it was fair to wonder whetherCarson Wentz was nothing more than a back-end QB2 in fantasy. It's hard not to consider him part of the QB1 discussion, however, after he dismantled the Steelers defense in Week 3 en route to the seventh-most fantasy points at the position. Wentz now has a pair of top-12 weeks under his belt and sits 10th at the position in fantasy points. He has a 5-0 touchdown-to-interception mark and has been off-target on 12 percent of his throws, which trails only Eli Manning and Drew Brees for best in the league. Wentz has done all this damage without running much, and that's something that figures to change down the stretch. Wentz will be a fringe QB1 when the Eagles come out of their Week 4 bye to take on Detroit.

Pittsburgh Steelers - DeAngelo Williams came into the 2016 like a lion and went out like a lamb. Fantasy's top-scoring running back after Week 2 totaled 44 yards on 12 touches in an absolute beat-down by the Eagles in Week 3. Williams now heads to the bench, where he figures to do nothing more than spell Le'Veon Bell when the workhorse back needs a rest. During the five full games Bell played last season, Williams played a grand total of 31 snaps and carried the ball 13 times. Bell is a strong RB1 play against the Chiefs this week, and Williams should be stashed on your bench as a high-ceiling handcuff.

San Diego Chargers - The Week 3 meeting between the Chargers and Colts provided an excellent case study on cornerback usage. As wide receiver/cornerback showdowns go, the general consensus often assumes that a team's No. 1 receiver will be shadowed by the opposing No. 1 cornerback. However, many times that is not the case and top-end corners rarely (yes, rarely) cover the slot. We saw this Sunday as T.Y. Hilton delivered a massive 11-target, eight-catch, 174-yard performance. Top-end corner Jason Verrett shadowed Hilton on 17 of his 20 routes run from the perimeter, but only four of 15 from the slot. Hilton's 63-yard touchdown came after lining up inside. Set for a meeting with New Orleans in Week 4, Verrett figures to follow Brandin Cooks when he's on the perimeter, but Cooks lines up in the slot 35 percent of the time, so he'll dodge Verrett during those plays.

San Francisco 49ers - Jeremy Kerley paced the 49ers with five targets in Week 3 and was also tops on the team with 11 in Week 1. Kerley's 23 percent target share is significant, but it hasn't allowed much fantasy production. Kerley has caught 12 of his 22 targets for 114 yards and no touchdowns, and is an undersized target who simply doesn't get much work near the goal line. He failed to catch his only end zone target this year and has no other looks within 15 yards of the end zone. Kerley is nothing more than a desperation flex in PPR leagues.

Seattle Seahawks - Thomas Rawls missed Sunday's game, which set up yet another strong performance from Christine Michael at running back. "C-Mike" scored the first two touchdowns of his career and was on the field for 43 of Seattle's 65 offensive snaps. He put up 106 yards on 20 carries and is now averaging 5.0 YPC on 136 carries with the Seahawks. Rawls is out for a month or so with a fibula injury, which means Michael is very much in the RB1 discussion moving forward. He's only 74.9 percent owned in ESPN leagues, so make sure you check your waiver wire closely.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cameron Brate is locked in as the Buccaneers' top tight end after the team released Austin Seferian-Jenkins last week. Brate certainly made a splash in his first game without Seferian-Jenkins in the mix, posting five receptions, 46 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. Brate's two scores were no fluke, as he caught one of three end zone targets. He ran the other touchdown in from 1 yard out and was targeted one additional time inside the opponent's 5 yard line. Brate easily paced the NFL in receiving OTD this week and now sits fourth overall in the category. If this usage keeps up, Brate will be a contender for eight touchdowns. He's a mid-pack TE2 in the meantime.

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</article>Tennessee Titans - Tajae Sharpe continues to generate excessive amounts of hype, but the production simply hasn't been there. Sharpe was an excellent find in the fifth round of April's draft, but the Titans offense has unsurprisingly limited the rookie's fantasy production. Through three games, Sharpe has caught 14 of 25 targets for 157 yards and no touchdowns. He sits 60th among wide receivers in fantasy points and hasn't posted a weekly finish better than 38th (Week 1). Production will eventually follow Sharpe's 24 target share, but he won't be a consistent asset in one of the league's lowest-scoring offenses.

Washington Redskins - Jamison Crowder is 5 feet 8, 185 pounds, but you wouldn't know if you looked at his usage near the goal line this season. Crowder's 2.2 receiving OTD is the fifth highest in the entire league. The receiver is tied for ninth with four end zone targets (one catch), and has been targeted four additional times within 6 yards of the goal line. Crowder has big-play ability (he also has a 55-yard touchdown this season), trails Jordan Reed by one for the team lead in targets and is clearly being used near the goal line. Crowder should be in starting lineups and, if this continues, he will push his way into the WR2 discussion in PPR leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Week 5's best fantasy football free-agent finds[/h]Field Yates
ESPN Insider

We're moving along in the NFL season. You're starting to get a feel for your team and how it stacks up against the rest of your league. But remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint. The time to stop fine-tuning your lineup is, well, never. If you can improve your roster, all moves are worth considering, including waiver-wire adds. So, below is a look at our top recommendations for Week 5 ESPN Fantasy free-agent pickups.
As usual, players owned in more than 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues are ineligible for this list.
Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens (45 percent). The Ravens satJustin Forsett in Week 4, opening the door for West to take the job onto himself. And take it, he did. After managing just 119 yards on 33 carries (3.6 average) through the first three games, West piled up 113 yards on 21 carries (5.4 average) on Sunday. Yes, Kenneth Dixon is going to figure into this backfield at some point soon, but for now, West is a must-add and top-25 back for Week 5.


Carson Wentz, QB,Philadelphia Eagles (34 percent). I was a bit surprised that Wentz's ownership didn't rise more this past week, but that's likely attributable to the Eagles' bye week. Here's your last best chance to pick him up, as Philly is back on the field in Week 5 against Detroit. We're entering the second week where bye weeks are part of the NFL schedule, a pair notable quarterbacks (e.g. Cam Newton and Carson Palmer) are unfortunately dealing with concussions, so you may be in the market for a signal-caller. Wentz's play has been incredible, and he's a smart add in all leagues.
Dontrelle Inman, WR, San Diego Chargers (0.7 percent). There were positive indicators for Inman entering Week 4, including this: He led the Chargers in snaps played in each of the team's first three games (the Keenan Allen injury led to this being the case). Inman's volume of snaps turned into production on Sunday, as he snagged seven catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. San Diego continues to be a high-ceiling passing attack minus Allen and Danny Woodhead. Inman should be added in 12-team or larger leagues.
James White, RB, New England Patriots (21.9 percent). While White has just 13 points in standard scoring so far this season, he's among the Patriots primed to take off with Tom Brady now back at quarterback. Over the final four games of last season, White racked up 28 catches and four total touchdowns. If you play in PPR scoring, White's ceiling could reach as high as an RB2 with Brady back.
Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills (10.3 percent). The Bills will be without Sammy Watkins for at least seven more games, meaning Woods will assume their top-receiver duties during that stretch. He had his way with the New England secondary in Week 4 (seven catches for 89 yards on 10 targets) and is a player very much worth adding in PPR leagues of 12 teams or more. Woods is a former second-round pick who many believed would make a seamless transition to the NFL.
Orleans Darkwa, RB, New York Giants (32.7 percent). For as long asRashad Jennings sits out (hand), Darkwa is likely to be the starter for the Giants. He filled in on Monday night, carrying the ball 12 times for 48 yards and a touchdown. He faces the exceptionally stingy Packers run defense in Week 5, but Darkwa is an add for any team that needs RB depth.


Bilal Powell, RB, New York Jets (32.6 percent). This isn't just a heads up for those who own Matt Forte: it's for anyone who plays in a PPR league or a team in need of running back help in standard scoring. Powell is a well-rounded player whose role for the Jets picked up in Week 4. He played just three fewer snaps than Forte and piled up 37 more total yards. Forte's practice workload is already being limited because of a knee issue (he's going to be limited on Wednesdays, according to head coach Todd Bowles, though the issue is not worrisome). Forte owners should snatch him up immediately, and others can as well.
Sammie Coates, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (11.5 percent). Coates can flat out fly -- he has a catch of at least 40 yards in each game this season -- and recorded six catches in Week 4. It's a potent passing offense with a number two wide receiver job for the taking. He's a very intriguing, potentially high-ceiling add for any league.
Hunter Henry, TE, San Diego Chargers (32.5 percent). It doesn't feel like Antonio Gates will be ready for Week 5 after not practicing for the second straight week. Henry has proven to be a very capable fill-in during Gates' absence. With four fantasy-relevant tight ends out for Week 5 because of a bye (Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Coby Fleener and Julius Thomas), Henry is a possible top-10 play.
Cole Beasley, WR, Dallas Cowboys (42.8 percent). We could list three Cowboys wideouts in this piece, as Terrance Williams and Brice Butler both found the end zone in Week 4, but here's the issue: Their roles are dependent upon the health of Dez Bryant. Bryant was listed as questionable for Week 4 on the official injury report and could be back any week now. If he returns, Williams and Butler are not startable players. Beasley, meanwhile, continues to carry PPR value. He has been on this list a lot recently. If we get early word that Bryant will be out in Week 5, I'd choose Butler over Williams if need be.
Eddie Royal, WR, Chicago Bears (9 percent). We've seen Royal soar in spurts before (five touchdowns in the first two weeks of 2013, four touchdowns in Weeks 3-4 of 2014), so his recent surge isn't entirely out of left field. But withKevin White now dealing with an ankle issue, there's an opportunity for Royal to keep a steady role in Chicago as the No. 2 wideout. In larger PPR leagues, he's worth a look.


Fozzy Whittaker, RB, Carolina Panthers (32.6 percent). The Panthers' ground game needsJonathan Stewart back in a major way, but until that happens, it's a two-man split between Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne. Game flow will dictate the usage of these two backs, but while Carolina seemingly was able to set the tempo all season in 2015, their struggles early in 2016 have led to plenty of passing-down situations. Whittaker remains a usable flex in deep PPR leagues.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Seattle Seahawks (7.4 percent). With C.J. Prosise out due to injury, Spiller got a chance to debut for Seattle in Week 4. The result? A trip to the end zone on a 7-yard touchdown catch. Spiller has so much athleticism and talent; if he carries a third-down role going forward, he'll be a usable piece in 14- or 16-team PPR leagues.
Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens (20.8 percent). It might seem a bit odd to suggest Dixon after West's breakthrough performance, but we're always willing to look down the line for an upside play. This much we know about Dixon: He's getting healthy, and the Ravens believe in his talent. He is a stash player in your 16-team leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

Is it time to buy or sell Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Carolina Panthers running backs?

KC Joyner
ESPN Insider



The trading blocks in a lot of ESPN leagues are likely to heat up now that we are four weeks into the fantasy season.

Some of the most popular candidates on the buy and sell side of those blocks are the star players who are performing below their initial perceived value level. So what should fantasy owners do when buying or selling these players? What price should they consider as a fair offer?

The key to being on the right of this type of deal is to know whether or not the recent struggles of these underperforming stars are due to turn around or if they are indicative of a longer-term issue that isn't likely to get corrected.

To help assist with this effort, let's take a look at some potential trade candidates and see what the metrics have to say about their true trade value.
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Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
Jeffery posted 10 points in Week 1 and has seen a decline each week since then, with nine points in Week 2, seven points in Week 3 and four points in Week 4. Things have gotten so bad that Eddie Royal now leads the Bears wide receivers in fantasy points for the season (41).
The odd part of all of this is Jeffery ranks eighth among wide receivers in vertical receiving yards (211 yards gained on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). What makes that number stand out even more is that Jeffery did this despite ranking tied for 27th among wide receivers in vertical targets (13) and tied for 22nd in vertical receptions (7).

This indicates Jeffery still can showcase his downfield receiving skills under the right circumstances, but the Bears' upcoming schedule does not fall into that category. They face the Colts in Week 5, a team that ranks third in vertical yards allowed per game (88.3). Next up is a matchup against the Jaguars in Week 6, a defense that ranks fifth in vertical yards allowed per game (97.8). Things improve with a matchup against Green Bay in Week 7, as the Packers currently place last in vertical yards allowed per game (189.7), but things get tough again versus Minnesota in Week 8 (98.7, ranked sixth), a matchup that is followed with a bye week.

Bottom line: Jeffery's talent to turn a small number of targets into a higher-than-normal volume of big plays is notable, but the schedule odds are really stacked against him. This means he isn't likely to get back to his top-10 wide receiver average draft position value, so consider Jeffery to be of WR2/WR3 trade value.


Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets
Last season, Forte posted a 7.1 mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good run blocking (roughly defined as the offense not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That number ranked 40th among qualifying running backs.

GBYPA is important because the history of this metric indicates that running backs are usually five times as productive on good blocking plays as they are on bad blocking plays.

The takeaway from Forte's GBYPA total was that he was more reliant on metric quantity than quality and therefore needed a large workload level to post notable fantasy point totals.

Forte's 7.0 GBYPA this season is nearly identical to last year's number, so he is in the same boat of needing a lot of carries and receptions to be fantasy-starter worthy.

His 59 combined carries and receptions in Weeks 1 and 2 allowed Forte to get the required workload and it led to his racking up 42 standard fantasy points.

The obvious downside to that is if one prorated Forte's per-game average of 29.5 carries/receptions from Weeks 1 and 2 over a 16-game season, it would equal 472 touches, or a pace that would rank second highest in NFL history.

The soon-to-be 31-year-old Forte is almost certainly not going to hold up to that workload level for a full season, so it should not have been a surprise to see him decline to only 33 combined rushes/receptions in the past two games. That is probably closer to the workload level he will post most of the rest of the season, but when that is combined with his meager GBYPA mark, it tends to result in a point production pace that is closer to the 4.5 fantasy points per game he tallied during the past two weeks than it is to the 21-point-per-game pace from the first two games.
Bottom line: Add the workload volume decline to the GBYPA drop-off and it makes Forte a borderline RB2/RB3 trade candidate.


Carolina running backs

Fantasy owners looking for a bargain trade target need look no further than the Carolina backfield. The Panthers' running backs have posted a combined total of 31 fantasy points this season, a number that belies how strong the team's run blocking has been.

Coming into Week 4, the Panthers had a 45.8 percent mark in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offensive wall gives its ball carriers quality run blocking, a total that ranked fourth in the league. The game flow in the matchup with Atlanta held Carolina running backs to only 10 carries in this contest, but the Panthers' 50 percent GBR in this game actually increased the team's season average in that category.

Since Carolina will be looking to protect its shaky defense and keepCam Newton from absorbing more of the punishment he has taken in the first quarter of the season, it is almost certain the Panthers will lean on their rushing attack a lot more this season.

The short-term schedule should assist them in this effort, as the Panthers are due to face Tampa Bay and New Orleans the next two weeks. The Buccaneers and Saints rank 23rd and 32nd, respectively, in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs (19 for Tampa Bay, 28 for New Orleans).

Bottom line: Cameron Artis-Payne could provide two RB2-caliber games while filling in as the starter the next two weeks, so getting him for any backup player should make for a solid trade. Fozzy Whittaker could be of equal short-term value in PPR leagues. Jonathan Stewart could return after the Week 8 bye. His injury history suggests Stewart could be hindered by a physical ailment down the stretch, but the potential upside he has in late-season starts against New Orleans, Oakland, San Diego and Washington could justify as high as a RB2 in return. If a fantasy owner can get Stewart for an RB3 price or lower, it could be a steal that helps clinch a playoff win.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Buy or sell: Week 5 fantasy trends for every team[/h]
ESPN INSIDER

NFL Nation reporters choose a player from each team and assess whether they're buying or selling his fantasy value headed into Week 5.


[h=2]NFC EAST[/h]

[h=2]Dallas Cowboys[/h]Buy: Running back Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott leads the NFL in rushing after four games, which many people thought could be the case when the Cowboys drafted him No. 4 overall. But after a slow start in the first two games, Elliott has 278 yards in his past two games. He has found the balance required for this system. Cincinnati is one of two teams not to allow a rushing touchdown this season and is giving up just 3.8 yards per carry, but the Cowboys' confidence is high -- and so is Elliott's confidence. -- Todd Archer

[h=2]New York Giants[/h]Sell: Quarterback Eli Manning
He piles up yards, but the Giants just don't get into the end zone enough to make Manning a weekly play. Manning threw for 261 yards against a good Vikings defense, but he didn't have a touchdown pass. That's not going to do it. Manning now has four touchdown passes this season in four games, in part because the Giants remain one of the league's worst red zone teams. -- Jordan Raanan

[h=2]Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Sell: Tight end Brent Celek
The veteran had three catches for 61 yards in a big win over the Steelers in Week 3. Zach Ertz, however, is expected back in the lineup against the Lions this week, after sitting out the past two games with a displaced rib. Ertz, not Celek, is likely to get the bulk of the tight end targets moving forward for the Eagles. -- Tim McManus
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[h=2]Washington Redskins[/h]Sell: Running back Matt Jones
You might consider this odd timing with Jones coming off his best game, which followed a good fourth quarter against the Giants. But this "sell" is perhaps for just one game. Jones ran well and decisively versus the Browns, especially in the second half, when the play designs produced good holes and he hit them harder than in the past. But the Ravens' run defense has been a tough one this season -- in three of their four games, the opposition has averaged 3.3 yards per carry or less. Jones has to keep running the way he did in the second half on Sunday -- with more regularity -- before he becomes a no-brainer play each week. -- John Keim

[h=2]NFC NORTH[/h]

[h=2]Chicago Bears[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Eddie Royal
This is what the Bears expected when Royal received a three-year deal worth $10 million guaranteed. As foes double-team a banged-up Alshon Jeffery(knee/hamstring), Royal is often open, and unlike in 2015, the ball is coming his way. Through four games, Royal is second on the team in receptions (18), receiving yards (241) and touchdown catches (two). Plus, Royal grabs extra fantasy points in most leagues on punt returns, where he already took one back 65 yards for a score. Barring injury, there is no reason for Royal to slip off the radar. -- Jeff Dickerson

[h=2]Detroit Lions[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Anquan Boldin
Boldin is not going to put up huge numbers, and he's not going to have explosive plays after the catch, like many of the league's young receivers. But at a time when the bye weeks are hitting hard, he's a good fill-in who you can drop later, no problem. He has had at least three receptions in each game. He won't be a big point producer for you, but he's likely to get something every week. -- Michael Rothstein

[h=2]Green Bay Packers[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Jordy Nelson
Packers coach Mike McCarthy said the preseason expectations of Nelson were "unrealistic." However, three games into his return after missing all of last season because of a torn ACL, Nelson has "exceeded the reality that I had for him," McCarthy said. Much of Nelson's work in the first two games was in the short area of the field, but he started to go deeper in Week 3 against the Lions, against whom he had his first 100-yard game. He already has four touchdown catches in three games, and with a bye week to rest, there's reason to think Nelson will get even better as the weeks go on. -- Rob Demovsky

[h=2]Minnesota Vikings[/h]Buy: Running back Jerick McKinnon
The Vikings were finally able to clear some space against a previously-formidable defensive front on Monday night, which bodes well for McKinnon's future as the team's featured back. He gained 85 yards on 18 carries, and showed he has the speed to bust some long runs when he gets a chance to hit a seam and go, as he did on his 25-yard run against the Giants. He also caught three passes, and will continue to be involved in the passing game after being targeted five times. If the Vikings can get steady offensive line play, McKinnon should have more opportunities coming. -- Ben Goessling

[h=2]NFC SOUTH[/h]

[h=2]Atlanta Falcons[/h]Buy: Quarterback Matt Ryan
Ryan might have been the MVP of the league over the first quarter of the season, and he's coming off a franchise-record 503 passing yards and four touchdowns against what was supposed to be a respected Panthers defense. You can't discount the roll Ryan is on, even as he prepares to face a Broncos defense that has allowed just two touchdown passes through four games. -- Vaughn McClure

[h=2]Carolina Panthers[/h]Sell: Running back Cameron Artis-Payne
Artis-Payne has done little since replacing Jonathan Stewart (hamstring). He had 12 yards on six carries on Sunday against Atlanta. Combine that with the chance that Stewart will return either this week or the next and it gives the second-year back no value. -- David Newton

[h=2]New Orleans Saints[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Michael Thomas
I would still rank rookie Thomas as New Orleans' No. 3 option. Brandin Cooksand Willie Snead owners shouldn't worry about their quiet days at San Diego, which just happened to be one of those tough days for the downfield passing game. Thomas, however, keeps proving that he is a trusted part of this offense. He led all Saints receivers with 56 snaps, nine targets, four catches, 44 yards and a touchdown om Sunday against the Chargers. And his score came on a crucial fourth-down play with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. -- Mike Triplett

[h=2]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]Sell: Running back Charles Sims
Sims had just 28 yards on 15 carries and two catches for seven yards against the Broncos. He also lost a fumble. As the Bucs figure out how to replace injured back Doug Martin, coach Dirk Koetter has also hinted that he might increaseJacquizz Rodgers' workload. -- Jenna Laine

[h=2]NFC WEST[/h]

[h=2]Arizona Cardinals[/h]Buy: Wide receiver John Brown
Brown's production has steadily improved this season, culminating with a 144-yard performance on Sunday against the Rams. Cardinals coach Bruce Arians has a tendency to stick with the hot hand, so expect Brown to keep getting targeted. "John Brown looked good for three weeks," Arians said. "He had two to three great weeks of practice, and it's finally showing up in games." -- Josh Weinfuss

[h=2]Los Angeles Rams[/h]Sell: Wide receiver Brian Quick
Quick had a nice day in the Rams' win over the Cardinals, with 69 yards and two touchdowns. It gave him three touchdowns over the past two games, but don't go crazy adding him to your rosters just yet. Quick, who was nearly cut because of his penchant for dropping balls last season and during this preseason, hauled in only two of his six targets. He is currently the Rams' No. 3 receiver. But with rookies Pharoh Cooper and Nelson Spruce on their way back, Quick's targets should only decrease. His performance has been encouraging to an organization that drafted him 33rd overall in 2012, but it's probably not good enough to target him for your fantasy roster. At least not yet. -- Alden Gonzalez

[h=2]San Francisco 49ers[/h]Buy: Running back Carlos Hyde
Hyde's rushing numbers have been up and down in the first quarter of the season, but he has still been able to consistently produce the most valuable of all fantasy football commodities: touchdowns. His five scores are tied for the second most of any player in the league, and he has managed to reach the end zone in all but one of the 49ers' games. Hyde might not be putting up the gaudy numbers to carry a team, but there's something to be said for consistency. He can probably be had at a reasonable price in your league. -- Nick Wagoner

[h=2]Seattle Seahawks[/h]Buy: Tight end Jimmy Graham
Graham has 12 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown in his past two games. On the season, Graham's 266 receiving yards are second among tight ends, and he has caught 72.7 percent of the balls thrown his way through the first four games. It has been a remarkable comeback following his ruptured patellar tendon injury, and Graham looks like the player the Seahawks thought they were trading for before 2015. The team has a bye in Week 5, but Graham looks like an every-week starter going forward. -- Sheil Kapadia
[h=2]AFC EAST[/h]

[h=2]Buffalo Bills[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Robert Woods
There were questions after Sammy Watkins' injury as to whether Woods could step into the Bills' No. 1 receiver role, and he showed Sunday against New England that he's capable. Woods had 89 receiving yards, the third most of his career, and scored 15 PPR fantasy points. Had he caught a touchdown pass, it would've been one of his best games of his four-year career. His arrow is pointing up with Watkins out for at least the next seven weeks and possibly the entire season. -- Mike Rodak

[h=2]Miami Dolphins[/h]Buy: Wide receiver DeVante Parker
The Dolphins' offense was completely out of sync in Thursday's loss to the Bengals. One of the players hurt most was Parker, who had just two receptions for 20 yards on three targets. This is a good time to buy low on Parker in most fantasy leagues, however. He has the talent to be a dynamic threat at receiver, as evidenced by his eight-catch, 106-yard performance in Week 2 against the Patriots. But the risk is that Miami's offense currently has plenty of issues to figure out. -- James Walker

[h=2]New England Patriots[/h]Buy: Tight end Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski only has one reception in his first two games, but don't give up on him now. Buy his stock while it's low. His playing time is rising, and with Tom Brady coming back, the offense is about to open up. Expect Gronkowski to be a big part of it. I watched each of his 41 snaps in Sunday's shutout loss to the Bills, and Gronkowski was sent into a pass route only 13 times. That won't last. -- Mike Reiss

[h=2]New York Jets[/h]Sell: The Jets' defense
The unit is underachieving, giving up 285 passing yards per game and failing to make big plays (only three takeaways). In fact, the Jets haven't scored a defensive touchdown since 2013. The Jets next face the Steelers, who could run up huge numbers, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing to Antonio Brown. -- Rich Cimini

[h=2]AFC NORTH[/h]

[h=2]Baltimore Ravens[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Steve Smith Sr.
Smith has become quarterback Joe Flacco's go-to receiver once again, producing 111 receiving yards and one touchdown on eight catches on Sunday. Smith proved he has fully recovered from last year's Achilles injury, and the Ravens have taken him off a snap count. Only four receivers have been targeted more over the past two weeks than Smith. Flacco is going to continue to look for Smith, especially when Breshad Perriman, Chris Moore and Kamar Aiken are having trouble holding onto passes. -- Jamison Hensley

[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Sell: Running back Giovani Bernard
Bernard's use has just become too inconsistent to be a reliable fantasy option. The Bengals' ground game has struggled through the first four weeks of the season, and the Bengals have turned to Jeremy Hill first to churn out even meager yards. Bernard has been used more in the passing game -- he has 19 catches and a touchdown -- than the run game and has been solidly behind Hill as the No. 2 back through the first part of the season. -- Katherine Terrell

[h=2]Cleveland Browns[/h]Sell: Wide receiver Terrelle Pryor
For this week, at least. The Browns continue to confound fantasy players. In the first half against Washington, Pryor looked like a keeper, hauling in four catches and a touchdown. He had one catch for four yards in the second half. New England is giving up 15 points per game, which ranks in the top five in the league. This will be a tough game for the Browns' offense, and Bill Belichick will pay special attention to Pryor. -- Pat McManamon

[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Sammie Coates
Coates has one catch of at least 40 yards in four straight games. His snaps are increasing. His confidence is growing. All he needs is his first career regular-season trip to the end zone. Coates was limited to go balls and screen passes early in the season, but the Steelers are slowly giving him more. Without a clear-cut No. 2 wideout, Coates is making a case for that spot. -- Jeremy Fowler
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[h=2]AFC SOUTH[/h]

[h=2]Houston Texans[/h]Buy: Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins
The Pro Bowl receiver only had one catch for a career-low four yards on Sunday against the Titans. That won't continue, even against a tough Vikings' defense. Coach Bill O'Brien said Sunday that his staff has to do a better job of getting Hopkins the ball, so expect a much bigger game this Sunday, even as Hopkins and quarterback Brock Osweiler work through their chemistry issues. -- Sarah Barshop

[h=2]Indianapolis Colts[/h]Sell: Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton
The receiver didn't back up his eight-catch, 174-yard Week 3 performance against San Diego in the loss to Jacksonville in London. Hilton has a difficult time creating his own space when having to face physical cornerbacks such as Jaguars rookie Jalen Ramsey. Hilton had seven catches for just 42 yards. It won't be surprising if the Bears, the Colts' Week 4 opponent, take a similar approach with Hilton. -- Mike Wells

[h=2]Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Allen Robinson
Robinson started the season slowly, but he has three touchdown receptions in his past two games, and his 40 targets rank in the top 10 in the league. If the Jaguars continue to have success with their switch to more of an inside zone run game, things will open up even more for Robinson, who had 14 touchdowns last season. -- Mike DiRocco

[h=2]Tennessee Titans[/h]Buy: Titans' defense
The Titans are doing a great job keeping teams from scoring, and the Dolphins, their next opponent, is not an especially potent offense. The Titans' special teams aren't very threatening, but they just fired the unit's coach, Bobby April, and should have things simplified and shored up this week. -- Paul Kuharsky

[h=2]AFC WEST[/h]

[h=2]Denver Broncos[/h]Buy: Running back C.J. Anderson
The Broncos are too intent on getting the run game going in the weeks to come for Anderson not to get loose. They have struggled some with the four-man fronts that they have faced in recent weeks. But they showed a glimmer of what's likely to come in the second half of their win over the Buccaneers. Plus, teams have gotten aggressive in coming after quarterback Trevor Siemian, who now has a left shoulder injury. So the best way to slow the pass-rushers is to run the ball right at them, and that starts with Anderson. -- Jeff Legwold

[h=2]Kansas City Chiefs[/h]Buy: Running back Jamaal Charles
Charles might not be able to heal all that ails the Chiefs, but he will get more work when Kansas City returns from the bye than he did in Sunday night's loss to Pittsburgh, when he had two carries for seven yards. The Chiefs might have to turn away from the suddenly unreliable Spencer Ware, who lost a fumble on Sunday for the third straight game. -- Adam Teicher

[h=2]Oakland Raiders[/h]Buy: Wide receiver Michael Crabtree

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Remember how I said to sell Crabtree last week? Yeah, um, never mind. Buy Crabtree when he's hot, which is now. In his last days with the 49ers, who selected him in the 2009 draft when the Raiders bypassed him, Crabtree was a disillusioned, disgruntled player. Now, he's rejuvenated as a Raider. Getting targeted 12 times in Sunday's victory at the Ravens and turning in his first career three-touchdown game only illustrates how hot he truly is, especially with four touchdowns in past two games and at least 80 yards receiving in three of his first four games. -- Paul Gutierrez

[h=2]San Diego Chargers[/h]Buy: Tight end Hunter Henry
The rookie finished with four receptions for 61 yards on seven targets, including his first career touchdown, in the loss to the Saints. After playing every snap against the Colts a week ago, Henry played in 68 snaps against the Saints. WithAntonio Gates still nursing a hamstring injury, Henry should continue to get consistent playing time and targets for the Chargers. -- Eric D. Williams

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Best, worst wide receiver matchups for Week 5[/h]Mike Clay
ESPN Writer

ESPN INSIDER

By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week. Down below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 5 matchups, as well as some additional notes.
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To view the primary defenders who will be facing against the top three wide receivers for each team this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet:
[h=3]Downloadable cheat sheet PDF[/h]

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[h=2]Advantageous matchups[/h]

Kelvin Benjamin vs. Vernon Hargreaves III and Brent Grimes
Alterraun Verner has been benched for what feels like the 26th time in his career, which has opened the door for the rookie Hargreaves to work on the perimeter opposite Grimes. Benjamin has lined up on the perimeter on 79 percent of his routes this season, which means he will see a lot of Hargreaves and Grimes in Week 5. Grimes is a solid corner, but he has been targeted a ton this season and has allowed 261 yards and four touchdowns. Hargreaves, meanwhile, is a potential star at the position, but he has also been lit up so far during his rookie campaign. Benjamin is a prime candidate for a bounce-back week.


T.Y. Hilton vs. Cre'Von LeBlanc
The Bears have been shuffling cornerbacks following the season-ending injury to Kyle Fuller. Their latest move was to kick Bryce Callahan to the perimeter and insert LeBlanc into the slot. LeBlanc is an undrafted free agent who has already been waived by New England this season. Hilton has run 57 percent of his routes from the slot this season, which means he's likely to draw plenty of LeBlanc this week. Even when Hilton is on the perimeter, he'll see plenty of Tracy Porter, who has struggled this season against top receivers.

Julian Edelman (and Chris Hogan) vs. Tramon Williams
Tom Brady is back and, as if that isn't enough, Edelman will enjoy a very nice matchup this weekend. Edelman has run half his routes in the slot this season, and Hogan isn't far behind at 42 percent. Williams is Cleveland's primary slot defender and has been one of the league's worst cover corners this season. Especially with Jamar Taylor and Joe Haden holding down the fort on the perimeter, Edelman, Hogan and possibly even Danny Amendola shouldn't have much trouble getting open underneath. Edelman is a borderline WR1 and Hogan a sneaky flex play this week.

Antonio Brown vs. Darrelle Revis and Marcus Williams
The Jets have serious cornerback problems, with both Revis and Williams struggling badly this season. This is good news for Brown and Sammie Coates, who have each run 87 percent of their routes on the perimeter this season. The two wide receivers split those routes pretty evenly between the left and right side of the field, which means they're likely to see a fairly equal share of both corners. Markus Wheaton, meanwhile, will draw Buster Skrine in the slot, but the defensive back has actually played well this season. Brown is an elite play, as usual, and Coates is a sneaky WR3 play.
[h=2]Tough Matchups[/h]

DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller vs. Xavier Rhodes andTerence Newman
Rhodes gets the headlines, but each of Minnesota's top three cornerbacks have been terrific this season. Because Rhodes almost never shadows -- and only did part-time against Odell Beckham Jr. last week -- I don't expect him to follow around Hopkins in Week 5. However, both Hopkins and Fuller run roughly 80 percent of their routes on the perimeter. That's where they will see Rhodes and Newman this week. On the rare occasions that they travel to the slot, Hopkins and Fuller will match up against one of the game's top slot corners in Captain Munnerlyn. Hopkins and Fuller obviously need to be downgraded this week.

Mohamed Sanu vs. Chris Harris Jr.
Sanu is Atlanta's primary slot receiver, and Harris is one of the game's top cover corners; he also also lines up in the slot in nickel packages. You might expect Sanu to benefit from the fact that the Falcons rank dead last in three-wide sets this season, but he will see either Harris or Aqib Talib when on the perimeter. Both corners have been terrific in coverage this season. Denver rarely shadows, so Julio Jones figures to draw plenty of struggling Bradley Roby in this one. Sanu is not a good flex option in Denver this week.

Jordy Nelson vs. Janoris Jenkins
Jenkins has shadowed occasionally this season, including againstStefon Diggs' perimeter routes last week. While Dominique Rodgers-Cromartieand Eli Apple deal with injuries, it makes sense that Jenkins would follow red-hot Nelson in Week 5. Nelson has lined up out wide on 84 percent of his routes this season, which means he's unlikely to dodge Jenkins' coverage. Granted, Jenkins isn't a great cover corner, but he has allowed only 141 yards and no touchdowns on 160 routes faced this season. It's a tougher matchup than usual for Nelson, but he's seeing enough targets and remains a strong WR1 play. You may just want to fade him in DFS, though.

Torrey Smith vs. Patrick Peterson and Jeremy Kerley vs.Tyrann Mathieu


Of the 50 pass routes Smith ran against Arizona last season, Peterson lined up across from him on 48. The results were one reception, 10 yards and no touchdowns on three targets. Ouch. Smith did catch a 41-yard pass against Mathieu in the slot, but Smith has lined up inside on only 13 percent of his routes this season. Smith obviously should not be in lineups this week. Mathieu has spent most of the season at safety, but Tyvon Branch's trip to injured reserve means Mathieu will return to the slot corner position, where he dominated last season. Kerley has seen nearly one quarter of the team's targets this season, but he's a poor bet to produce against Mathieu this week.
[h=2]Other projected shadow situations[/h]

Demaryius Thomas vs. Desmond Trufant
Emmanuel Sanders has dominated the targets in Denver this season, so it's hard to project if the Falcons will put Trufant on him or Thomas, or simply let him play his side. Nonetheless, with Robert Alford and slot corner Brian Poole also playing solid ball, Thomas and Sanders need to be downgraded slightly.