[h=1]Players helped, hurt by scheme changes in 2015[/h]Field Yates, ESPN Insider
After four seasons in Pittsburgh, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders relocated to Denver during the 2014 offseason in a move that was widely regarded as solid. Not a real needle-mover relative to other transactions, but a nice potential fourth weapon for Peyton Manning behind Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker.
A year later, Sanders looks like one of the league's great bargains with a contract that carries a base value of less than $10 million combined for the next two seasons. Sanders burst onto the scene in 2014, posting career highs across the board in the Mile High city, including 101 catches, 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns, nearly as many as he had in his first four pro seasons (11).
The move illustrated how a player's fantasy value is rooted in more than his talents alone. Did Sanders play the best football of his career last season? Sure. But was he a quantum leap better in terms of ability from what we saw in Pittsburgh? No. But when you play in an offense in which you can dictate a favorable matchup on almost every snap, beefed up production can -- and did -- follow.
Below is a look at four players who should be positively impacted by a change of scheme or scenery in 2015, and four others who might be limited by their new surroundings.
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[h=2]Positive impact[/h]
[h=2]Mike Wallace | Minnesota Vikings | WR[/h]2014 finish: 18th among wide receivers
The Dolphins signed Mike Wallace during the 2013 offseason to be their big-play receiving threat, but just two years later he was dealt to Minnesota. The best we've seen from Wallace was in 2010-11 when he hauled in 18 touchdowns and averaged 18.6 yards per catch as the long-range threat withBen Roethlisberger under center. In Miami, there was a deep-ball disconnect, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill ranked 30th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage on throws 20 or more yards down the field (26.5 percent) and 30th in total QBR (60.4). Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has room to grow as a thrower but was markedly better than Tannehill down the field last season, ranking 14th in completion percentage at 37.8 and 15th and 15th in total QBR at 92.4.
[h=2]Frank Gore | Indianapolis Colts | RB[/h]2014 finish: 17th among running backs
It's not so much that Gore is a guarantee to get more than the 255 rushes he earned in San Francisco last season (the Colts had the No. 1 ranked passing attack), but the looks he faces when he does get his touches. Among players with at least 150 rushes in 2014, no one faced a loaded box (eight or more defenders) more regularly than Gore at 30 percent (76 of his 255 carries --hat-tip to Scott Kacsmar). With the Colts' high octane passing attack, stacking the box defensively would be a self-inflicted wound for a defense. Gore is far more likely to see extensive work versus a six-man box -- with much more space to operate through in 2015.
[h=2]Justin Forsett | Baltimore Ravens | RB[/h]2014 finish: 8th among running backs
Forsett was outstanding last year, and it won't be easy to sustain the production he managed with -- presumably -- more competition in the backfield from other Ravens runners (Lorenzo Taliaferro and draft choice Buck Allenincluded). But the change from Gary Kubiak to Marc Trestman as coordinator offers a potential schematic wrinkle that should reinforce confidence in Forsett as a low-end RB1 or high RB2 in 2015. Bears running back Matt Forte set a single-season record for catches from a running back in 2014 under Trestman's watch (102), while Forsett hauled in 44 passes. That's not a low figure, but if that increases in 2015, it will help offset any potential carries lost to the youngsters in the backfield.
[h=2]C.J. Spiller | New Orleans Saints | RB[/h]2014 finish: 65th among running backs
Spiller can be tantalizing for fantasy owners because of his uncommon athletic ability, but the elite traits have aligned with elite production for just one of his five NFL seasons (2012). Now in New Orleans, Spiller is -- according to coach Sean Payton -- going to have room to operate in space. That's when he's at his best, rather than pounding the ball between the tackles. He's not the type of running back who needs 250 touches over the course of a season. Close to 12 a game should be enough to be fantasy relevant and feels like a reasonable floor for him New Orleans.
[h=2]Negative impact[/h]
[h=2]Julius Thomas | Jacksonville Jaguars | TE[/h]2014 finish: 7th among tight ends
There are a couple of angles to dissect this from, but let's start here: Thomas is no longer a primary target in what over the past two seasons has been the league's best passing offense with Peyton Manning at the helm. It would be rare for a player to leave Denver and wind up in dramatically better shape from a fantasy outlook. The new signal-caller for Thomas is Blake Bortles. His ascension from Year 1 to 2 is not only critical to the Jaguars' overall franchise health, but will play a decided part in Thomas' output. Unlike in Denver -- where he played alongside the aforementioned Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders -- Thomas can be the focal point that opposing pass defenses zone in on versus Jacksonville.
[h=2]DeMarco Murray | Philadelphia Eagles | RB[/h]2014 finish: 1st among running backs
A part of the Eagles' line of thinking in signing Murray (after tradingLeSean McCoy) was how he fit schematically within their offense. A decisive back with the foot precision to plant and work vertically up field is well suited in Philadelphia, but let's face it: Murray had one of the idyllic setups in Dallas in 2014. He ran behind the best offensive line in football and the third-run-heaviest offense in the league, eating up an astonishing 83.1 percent of all carries by Dallas running backs last season. While he's likely to be a seamless fit in Philly, Murray now has backfield competition, as former Charger Ryan Matthews was also signed this offseason. If he had stayed in Dallas, Murray could well have been the first back taken in drafts this year -- now he's likely a top-five to -eight back.
[h=2]Jeremy Maclin | Kansas City Chiefs | WR[/h]2014 finish: 8th among wide receivers
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</article>There's so much to love about Maclin's game, and there's probably a chicken-versus-egg interpretation debate with this one. Chiefs quarterbackAlex Smith was 33rd among qualifying quarterbacks in average passing yards at the catch in 2014 at just 4.4 yards (and 28th in yards per completion at 10.78), which suggests the speedy Maclin might be limited from the big plays that separated him in 2014 (he had six games last season with a catch of 50 or more yards). The counterpoint is that the Chiefs lacked a player with Maclin's skill set, motivating them to sign him this offseason.
[h=2]Kenny Stills | Miami Dolphins | WR[/h]2014 finish: 36th among wide receivers
The Dolphins were able to deal away Wallace in part because they had acquired a player with a similar level of speed in Stills, the NFL's leader in yards per catch in 2013 (20.0 yards per reception). That was with Drew Brees as his quarterback (who ranked fifth in total QBR on passing plays of 20-plus yards, completing 30 in total that season). While Tannheill is a player who should continue to prosper each season, developing a consistent downfield rapport with Stills is no sure thing (it never evolved with Wallace). Stills has yet to reach his ceiling in terms of production, but those hoping for immediate returns with a change of scenery might be wise to be patient.
After four seasons in Pittsburgh, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders relocated to Denver during the 2014 offseason in a move that was widely regarded as solid. Not a real needle-mover relative to other transactions, but a nice potential fourth weapon for Peyton Manning behind Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker.
A year later, Sanders looks like one of the league's great bargains with a contract that carries a base value of less than $10 million combined for the next two seasons. Sanders burst onto the scene in 2014, posting career highs across the board in the Mile High city, including 101 catches, 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns, nearly as many as he had in his first four pro seasons (11).
The move illustrated how a player's fantasy value is rooted in more than his talents alone. Did Sanders play the best football of his career last season? Sure. But was he a quantum leap better in terms of ability from what we saw in Pittsburgh? No. But when you play in an offense in which you can dictate a favorable matchup on almost every snap, beefed up production can -- and did -- follow.
Below is a look at four players who should be positively impacted by a change of scheme or scenery in 2015, and four others who might be limited by their new surroundings.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Positive impact[/h]
The Dolphins signed Mike Wallace during the 2013 offseason to be their big-play receiving threat, but just two years later he was dealt to Minnesota. The best we've seen from Wallace was in 2010-11 when he hauled in 18 touchdowns and averaged 18.6 yards per catch as the long-range threat withBen Roethlisberger under center. In Miami, there was a deep-ball disconnect, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill ranked 30th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage on throws 20 or more yards down the field (26.5 percent) and 30th in total QBR (60.4). Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has room to grow as a thrower but was markedly better than Tannehill down the field last season, ranking 14th in completion percentage at 37.8 and 15th and 15th in total QBR at 92.4.
It's not so much that Gore is a guarantee to get more than the 255 rushes he earned in San Francisco last season (the Colts had the No. 1 ranked passing attack), but the looks he faces when he does get his touches. Among players with at least 150 rushes in 2014, no one faced a loaded box (eight or more defenders) more regularly than Gore at 30 percent (76 of his 255 carries --hat-tip to Scott Kacsmar). With the Colts' high octane passing attack, stacking the box defensively would be a self-inflicted wound for a defense. Gore is far more likely to see extensive work versus a six-man box -- with much more space to operate through in 2015.
Forsett was outstanding last year, and it won't be easy to sustain the production he managed with -- presumably -- more competition in the backfield from other Ravens runners (Lorenzo Taliaferro and draft choice Buck Allenincluded). But the change from Gary Kubiak to Marc Trestman as coordinator offers a potential schematic wrinkle that should reinforce confidence in Forsett as a low-end RB1 or high RB2 in 2015. Bears running back Matt Forte set a single-season record for catches from a running back in 2014 under Trestman's watch (102), while Forsett hauled in 44 passes. That's not a low figure, but if that increases in 2015, it will help offset any potential carries lost to the youngsters in the backfield.
Spiller can be tantalizing for fantasy owners because of his uncommon athletic ability, but the elite traits have aligned with elite production for just one of his five NFL seasons (2012). Now in New Orleans, Spiller is -- according to coach Sean Payton -- going to have room to operate in space. That's when he's at his best, rather than pounding the ball between the tackles. He's not the type of running back who needs 250 touches over the course of a season. Close to 12 a game should be enough to be fantasy relevant and feels like a reasonable floor for him New Orleans.
[h=2]Negative impact[/h]
There are a couple of angles to dissect this from, but let's start here: Thomas is no longer a primary target in what over the past two seasons has been the league's best passing offense with Peyton Manning at the helm. It would be rare for a player to leave Denver and wind up in dramatically better shape from a fantasy outlook. The new signal-caller for Thomas is Blake Bortles. His ascension from Year 1 to 2 is not only critical to the Jaguars' overall franchise health, but will play a decided part in Thomas' output. Unlike in Denver -- where he played alongside the aforementioned Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders -- Thomas can be the focal point that opposing pass defenses zone in on versus Jacksonville.
A part of the Eagles' line of thinking in signing Murray (after tradingLeSean McCoy) was how he fit schematically within their offense. A decisive back with the foot precision to plant and work vertically up field is well suited in Philadelphia, but let's face it: Murray had one of the idyllic setups in Dallas in 2014. He ran behind the best offensive line in football and the third-run-heaviest offense in the league, eating up an astonishing 83.1 percent of all carries by Dallas running backs last season. While he's likely to be a seamless fit in Philly, Murray now has backfield competition, as former Charger Ryan Matthews was also signed this offseason. If he had stayed in Dallas, Murray could well have been the first back taken in drafts this year -- now he's likely a top-five to -eight back.
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</article>There's so much to love about Maclin's game, and there's probably a chicken-versus-egg interpretation debate with this one. Chiefs quarterbackAlex Smith was 33rd among qualifying quarterbacks in average passing yards at the catch in 2014 at just 4.4 yards (and 28th in yards per completion at 10.78), which suggests the speedy Maclin might be limited from the big plays that separated him in 2014 (he had six games last season with a catch of 50 or more yards). The counterpoint is that the Chiefs lacked a player with Maclin's skill set, motivating them to sign him this offseason.
The Dolphins were able to deal away Wallace in part because they had acquired a player with a similar level of speed in Stills, the NFL's leader in yards per catch in 2013 (20.0 yards per reception). That was with Drew Brees as his quarterback (who ranked fifth in total QBR on passing plays of 20-plus yards, completing 30 in total that season). While Tannheill is a player who should continue to prosper each season, developing a consistent downfield rapport with Stills is no sure thing (it never evolved with Wallace). Stills has yet to reach his ceiling in terms of production, but those hoping for immediate returns with a change of scenery might be wise to be patient.
