Fantasy Baseball News 2018

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hacheman@therx.com
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Which September call-ups made the biggest impression?

Tommy Rancel
ESPN PLUS


Unlike in years past, in 2018, the September call-up has been more about role players than impact stars. There was plenty of potential with
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
and
Eloy Jimenez
, but those teams opted to play conservative when it came to service-time accrual. Alas, there is no
Corey Seager
type carrying his veteran team to the playoffs and yours to the finish line.


Instead, we have a mix of starting pitchers trying to be relievers for contenders or positioning themselves for a rotation spot on teams well out of it. We have a pair of promising backstops -- for different reasons -- and a few outfielders who could be big-time players in 2018. Some of the names below can help in a pinch right now, but most will have more opportunity to offer assistance next season.

In no particular order, here we go...

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Kyle Wright, P Atlanta BravesThe fifth overall pick in 2017, Wright was called up to the big leagues after a strong season across two levels. He struck out 28 batters in 28 2/3 innings after being promoted to Triple-A, but he has struggled as a reliever at the highest level. Typically in control, he has walked six batters in five innings. You can keep him off the radar for the rest of 2018, but he will be a starter once again in 2019 and do so at the big league level.

Touki Toussaint, P Atlanta BravesToussaint has started two of his three appearances since being recalled, but like Wright, he has lost sight of the strike zone. He walked five batters in less than five innings in his last start. In his lone relief appearance, he faced nine batters, walking four, while collecting just three outs. It is a tough situation for young starters to switch roles late in the year. Toussaint will be in the running for a rotation spot sometime next season.

Nick Ciuffo, C Tampa Bay RaysThe former first-round pick was a surprise call-up after fellow catcher Adam Moore had passport issues early in the month. Ciuffo started the season on a 50-game suspension but ends it in the running to be the Rays' primary catcher. He is an above-average defender with decent pop from the left side. The Rays will likely let him go to battle with Michael Perez next spring, with the winner taking the lion's share of time behind the plate.

Alex Verdugo, OF Los Angeles DodgersVerdugo was called to Los Angeles for a third time this season. He has appeared in 13 games but only collected 24 plate appearances. The main outfielders for the Dodgers are all under contract next season, meaning something is going to have to change for him to get significant work next season. That could mean the Dodgers moving a veteran or moving Verdugo for a bigger piece of the puzzle.

Victor Robles, OF Washington NationalsAfter missing most of the first half of the season due to injury, Robles is back in Washington, where he is receiving a fair amount of playing time down the stretch. With the potential departure of Bryce Harper, the Nationals could be counting heavily on Robles and Juan Soto next season. Robles is a good hitter, with a feel for the strike zone and top-shelf speed. One of the top-10 prospects in baseball, he should play even more over the next 10 days and further position himself for a full-time gig in 2019.

Erick Fedde, P Washington NationalsFedde missed some time this summer with shoulder stiffness. He is back now and starting games for the Nationals, and will go into 2019 competing for a permanent spot. He has 22 strikeouts in 15 innings this month, while limiting opposing batters to a .154 average. Leading with a mid-90s sinker, he has posted a 63 percent groundball rate. The sinker along with cutter, slider and offspeed give him a well-rounded mix. He is a talented arm with an opportunity to carve a place on a team in transition.

Francisco Mejia, C San Diego PadresIn his first start, Mejia blasted two home runs. He added a grand slam earlier this week. Playing as part of a time share with Austin Hedges, Mejia will receive a handful more starts for the rest of the year before pushing the incumbent in the spring. Mejia is a top-of-the-order type of hitter who will carry catcher eligibility. He is definitely one you want to remember going into 2019 and could help in a pinch if you're desperate right now.

Justus Sheffield, P New York YankeesSheffield was a late call-up as his Triple-A club advanced in the playoffs. A candidate for a rotation spot next season, he will spend the next few weeks as a reliever with the Yankees, a role they have been preparing him for in the minors. As a starter, he works in the 92-95 area, but as a reliever, I would expect him to stay on the higher side with potentially more as he empties the tank. He does not have much value right now, but I expect him to be a key figure for 2019.

Sandy Alcantara, P Miami MarlinsSpeaking of key figures for 2019, Alcantara might be the Marlins' best starter heading into next season. Armed with an elite fastball, he posted back-to-back seven-inning gems to start the month before losing control his last time out. With a big fastball and long levers, that will happen from time to time. The Marlins may not be very competitive next year, but Alcantara is in a great spot as far as talent and opportunity. Miami closes out with the Reds, Nationals and Mets. He is a streaming option if you need one.

Willie Calhoun, OF/DH Texas RangersCalhoun is finally getting some run with the Rangers. He belted a home run on Sunday and will need to continue to show power if he is going to hit himself into the lineup come 2019. He is limited to left field or designated hitter, with little speed. The good news is, for fantasy purposes, the defense does not matter, and the speed can be made up elsewhere. It only works if he hits around .280 and approaches 30 home runs. He topped those numbers in 2017, but only the average followed into 2018. The power is the key to relevance.<strike></strike>
<strike></strike>
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Karablog: Who are the top 10 starting pitchers to draft in 2019?


Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

I find it somewhat fascinating that Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Blake Snell and New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom rank Nos. 3 and 4 on the ESPN full-season Player Rater for statistical value.

Make no mistake, these are my two picks for the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, as Snell became the second Rays player ever to win 20 games, and deGrom has been the signature pitcher this season for run prevention, but also for lack of run support. He has a mere eight wins, even though it is not fair and yes, wins are a ridiculous category and tell us so little. Still, fantasy managers have received similar value for each!
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Snell gets my vote for overall fantasy pitcher MVP honors this season because he was not among the top 65 starting pitchers chosen in ESPN average live drafts, an almost incomprehensible value, while deGrom was a fourth-rounder and No. 8 among pitchers overall. In that way, deGrom has performed large as was expected. Snell's place in ADP comes right after Marco Estrada, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Harvey, which is embarrassing. Arizona Diamondbackslefty Patrick Corbin, St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas and Atlanta Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz are other fantastic values, but not quite like Snell.

Fantasy managers seem to know which pitchers to choose early in drafts and in an age in which fewer and fewer starters make it to 200 innings, just to pick a number people care about, it does tend to make the guaranteed stars more valuable. After all, for years -- forever, really -- I would not think of including a starting pitcher among my first-round picks. Would I really select Max Scherzerover a top-10 hitter in 2019 drafts? Hard to say for sure but Scherzer might end up as fantasy's top overall player, as he trails Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts by just a bit on the Rater, and Scherzer has dominated for six years running. Yes, I think I would choose him fifth or sixth overall now.
Snell made obvious improvement as last season progressed, but still, his overall ERA was 4.04 and he won five games. That is it. Even this season Snell is hardly the most efficient pitcher out there, averaging short of six innings per outing. He is 33rd in innings pitched, so one could say his 20 wins are certainly fortunate and hardly a harbinger of more. In truth, he and deGrom could switch win totals next season, so never draft or rank pitchers based on that category. I prefer quality starts though it is also a flawed stat as well. Still, Scherzer and deGrom have the most of them with 26. Snell has the same number of QS as James Shields and Mike Leake.
The top tier of starting pitchers next season, at least for me, includes Scherzer at the top, along with Boston Red Sox lefty Chris Sale and Cleveland Indians right-hander Corey Kluber. To earn a place in that tier one must show not only amazing and consistent performance, but stay healthy year after year and pile on the strikeouts. Yes, Sale missed time this season, and might not qualify for the ERA title, so it might seem unfair to keep him in that tier while Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw leaves it, but Kershaw will end 2018 having not started more than 27 times in four of five seasons. The numbers are awesome when he does pitch, but let us say he leads that second tier for me.

Who else makes my early top 10 for starting pitchers? Well, after Scherzer, Sale, Kluber and Kershaw, I will say it is deGrom, Justin Verlander, Aaron Nola, Snell, Gerrit Cole and Noah Syndergaard, edging out Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and I guess Luis Severino, who scares me but deserves top-20 placement. Nola edges Snell because of the innings. They are a big deal. If Snell falls to 12 wins it would not surprise anyone, just like if deGrom does the same. Do not draft for wins, though we certainly thank Snell for his amazing season.

Wednesday recap

Box scores

Highlights:

Luke Voit, 1B, New York Yankees: 4-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R
Tommy Pham, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: 3-for-3, HR, 3 RBI, SB
Robbie Ray, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K
Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
Lowlights:
Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs: 0-for-4, 4 K
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees: 0-for-5, 3 K
Cole Hamels, SP, Chicago Cubs: 6 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Jack Flaherty, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
David Price, SP, Boston Red Sox: 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K

Recent takeaways:
Walker Buehler (24 years, 53 days old) is the youngest Dodgers pitcher with a 10-strikeout game since Clayton Kershaw did so on September 4, 2011 at age 23 years, 169 days old. pic.twitter.com/dCsBRMVYq1
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 20, 2018


• Buehler should finish second to Flaherty in strikeouts by a rookie, though he has a better ERA and WHIP than the Cardinals right-hander. Still, this should restore faith in rookie hurlers for fantasy managers, even though quite a few this season either could not stay healthy or did not get a chance, like Mike Soroka, Brent Honeywell, Michael Kopech, Forrest Whitley and Alex Reyes. We saw surprising performances this season from Jaime Barria, Dereck Rodriguezand Freddy Peralta, along with relievers Seranthony Dominguez, Trevor Hildenberger and Jordan Hicks. Pitchers get hurt, first-year options or not. Buehler and Flaherty look like top-20 starters for next season and beyond.
• Arizona's Ray has figured things out in his interesting season, as he has not permitted more than two runs in an outing in more than a month. In addition, Ray has not permitted more than two hits in a start for four consecutive. Walks remain a problem but this fellow, with major K potential, needs to be a top-20 starter in 2019 rankings as well.
• Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig started Wednesday's game on the bench, because the opposing starter was left-handed and Puig, for some reason, no longer hits lefties well. Still, he entered late and clubbed the game-winning home run. Puig is the No. 12 outfielder on the Player Rater for the past month, and doing so in a quasi-platoon role. If he could only get back to hammering lefties there could still be a mammoth 35-homer season in him.
Kansas City Royals second baseman Adalberto Mondesi had his fourth game with a home run and a stolen base in this truncated season. Mondesi has hit 10 blasts and stolen 26 bases in 65 games. He gets discussed in this space and on the Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast quite a bit, but perhaps just calling Mondesi a top-100 option for next year is selling him way short.

Health report:

Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch acknowledged that shortstop Carlos Correa is far from 100 percent due to a lingering back injury. It shows in the numbers as Correa is hitting .174 since the All-Star break with one home run and a .480 OPS. Yuck. Fantasy managers have all the info they need to sit him the final week of the season, but this should not alter his 2019 projections.
• The Colorado Rockies hope to have shortstop Trevor Story, the No. 14 option on the Player Rater, back this weekend from his elbow woes. Earlier in the week it was speculated that Story had a serious UCL injury, which could mean Tommy John surgery and much missed time. Now the Rockies think he plays this weekend. Story is good for baseball so let us hope he can play.

Closing time:
Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Felipe Vazquez saved his 12th game since the All-Star break on Wednesday, and despite a summer hiccup in which many thought his valuable elbow had been compromised, he is back among the top 10 relievers on the Rater. Vazquez does not boast the flashy numbers from a season ago in ERA and WHIP, but his FIP is the same and the K rate is up.
Baltimore Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens saved his eighth game Wednesday, and seventh since the break. It is not a lot of saves but this is a team with 108 losses with 10 games to go. Givens can save another game or two if you need.

W2W4:

Kevin Gausman has big numbers for the Braves since the trade, and he can put away the NL East with a win against the Phillies on Thursday. Gausman has been so inconsistent over the years, so should we unilaterally trust these numbers in Atlanta and say he is a top-20 option? I cannot do it yet and I do not know what more it would take. He might have to do this all of 2019 to convince me.

• Friday night features the Sale-Bauer matchup in which neither of them is likely to pitch long enough to earn a win or help a fantasy manager much. Check it out on ESPN2. Bauer makes his return after a line drive caused a leg fracture last month. He is expected to pitch only two innings, then cede to rookie Shane Bieber. Most would simply sit Bieber because he is not starting, and against the Red Sox I would, but there is a Tampa Bay reliever/starter with 15 wins (Ryan Yarbrough), so we cannot dismiss them.

• The Red Sox and Indians meet on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball at 7 p.m. ET, with starting pitchers you do not want in fantasy. If you need a Sunday win in your head-to-head playoffs, I like Brad Keller and Wade Miley among the available set. Miley has a 2.08 ERA in 14 starts. I do not know how he has done this, nor would expect it to continue in 2019, but yes, rely on him on Sunday.
 

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[h=1]Why Javier Baez was this season's most valuable fantasy hitter[/h]
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS


Just about every season, we can find a hitter who finishes near the top of the final fantasy baseball Player Rater that few were thinking about on draft day. Last season it was Kansas City Royals infielder Whit Merrifield, and before that, it was Milwaukee Brewers infielder Jonathan Villar and Arizona Diamondbacksoutfielder A.J. Pollock. Well, it isn't so easy to find someone like that this season. In fact, best I can tell, a mere three hitters from the current top 20 were not top-100 options on draft day.


One is Cincinnati Reds infielder Scooter Gennett, currently second in the NL in batting and boasting big power numbers, similar to last season. Another is Los Angeles Angels curiosity Shohei Ohtani, who is not among the top hitters this season in pure fantasy value, but when combined with his work as a pitcher and the fact that the Rater combines those statistics into eligible positions, his overall work is astounding. Ohtani was a 12th-round selection in ESPN ADP, and while I do not think I underrated his pitching skill, and we were correct to have concerns about his health, he obviously hit better than expected.


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Chicago Cubs infielder Javier Baez, however, was a steal of a pick just after Ohtani and has been aiding fantasy managers all season long. Not only does Baez offer rare eligibility at three infield positions, he became a true five-category offensive weapon. Baez currently boasts 34 home runs, an NL-leading 110 runs batted in and 21 stolen bases, to go with a .292 batting average and 97 runs scored. Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts seems likely to end up atop the Player Rater, but he was also the No. 5 pick in ADP. Baez was No. 119. Baez earns my vote, when combining statistics with cost acquisition, for fantasy hitting MVP.


Last week I wrote about the pitching MVP, and Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Blake Snell won his 21st game over the weekend. Snell is ahead of Baez on the Player Rater and was an afterthought selection, if he was chosen at all, in ESPN drafts, going in the 23rd round on average. Frankly, Snell has been the most valuable player in fantasy this season, and since he's scheduled to make one more start, Saturday vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, he could still end up atop the Rater. What a fascinating season for Snell.


As for Baez, blessed with athleticism and quick wrists that supply power, it was reasonable to think that his 2017 season, in which he hit .273 for the second consecutive season and offered 23 home runs with 10 steals, was close to his ceiling. Baez is not a disciplined hitter, and his paltry walk rate actually fell this season to 4.4 percent, which is among the lowest in the game. He does not strike out at a crazy rate, but what turned Baez into a potential real-life MVP -- he gets my vote -- was the adjustments he made to pitches in the strike zone. Baez made more contact with strikes and the right strikes, pitches he could drive. He makes no apologies for his aggressive approach, and this season pitchers could not effectively deal with him.


Baez finished the 2017 season as the No. 76 hitter on the Rater, behind Corey Dickerson, Mark Reynolds and Jake Lamb. This year he is a top-10 hitter and with a bit of luck this week could end up hitting .300 overall, which is stunning. Baez hit .169 as a rookie in 2014 with a 41 percent strikeout rate. Betts, Mike Trout and Christian Yelich, chief competition for real-life NL MVP honors (unless one includes Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom, but that seems unlikely), are the players hitting .300 with 30 home runs and 20 steals. Baez is almost there.


In addition to Snell, Gennett and Ohtani, other candidates for fantasy MVP honors relatively ignored on draft day include Oakland Athletics closer Blake Treinen, Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin, St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas, Cleveland Indians outfielder Michael Brantley and Seattle Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. We thank Betts, Scherzer, Jose Ramirez, Yelich and Trout as well, but there is still nothing like finding a player in the final rounds or in free agency who carries a fantasy team to a championship. Snell, Baez and the others certainly came through.


[h=2]Monday recap[/h]
Box scores


Highlights:


• Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox: 2-for-5, HR, 2 RBI, SB
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals: 2-for-4, HR, 4 RBI
Ketel Marte, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: 3-for-4, HR, 3 RBI
Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K


Lowlights:


Joey Gallo, 1B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers: 0-for-5, 4 K
Travis Shaw, 1B/2B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers: 0-for-4, 3 K
Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins: 4 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Yoshihisa Hirano, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 2/3 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Recent takeaways:
Bryce Harper has reached 100 RBI for the first time in his career
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 25, 2018


• This will be such an interesting offseason as Harper and Los Angeles Dodgersshortstop Manny Machado hit free agency. For those complaining about Harper this season, stop. The .245 batting average is a drag, but it is also .294 since the All-Star break. The power is there and always has been, and if he really wants to steal bases, he has shown he can. Harper is the No. 46 option on the season Player Rater, so no, he did not return first-round value, but he was not a bust. Harper might finish with a batting average on the wrong side of .250 for the second time in three seasons, and we have no idea how much he wants to steal bases, but do not let him fall far from the first round. For now, I would prefer Machado, but Harper settles into Round 2 for 2019.


• I will not tell you that Philadelphia Phillies infielder Scott Kingery enjoyed a good season or helped fantasy managers a great deal. Kingery barely has an OPS on the positive side of .600, but he was a rookie and the eight home runs and 10 stolen bases are indicative of his skill level. In fact, he could easily double these marks in 2019, presuming he gets the playing time, and that should happen. Kingery is on my list of players who fantasy managers in deeper dynasty/keeper formats should be adding this final week, for the future remains bright. See if someone dropped a top-100 option like Corey Seager, Buster Posey or Byron Buxton. Look for a rookie who struggled like Kingery, Jake Bauers or Lewis Brinson. You never know: a future Javier Baez could be lurking.


• Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Tommy Pham and Houston Astros infielder Yuli Gurriel were the top options on the 7-day Player Rater entering Monday. We know Yelich is awesome, but Pham hit three home runs, knocked in seven and stole a base against terrible Toronto and Texas pitching last week, while Gurriel had a two-homer game with seven RBIs against the Angels. Pham and Gurriel were modestly available in standard leagues six weeks ago. Yankees first baseman Luke Voit hit four home runs and knocked in eight in the past week. There are always hot hitters out there to add to fantasy teams, even in the final week.


• The Astros continue to boast amazing pitching depth, and right-hander Framber Valdez is the latest prodigy, throwing six innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts to beat the Angels on Sunday. Sometimes the guys to add are young pitchers who throw hard, and sometimes we all need someone like Braves right-hander Anibal Sanchez, so awful for the Tigers in recent seasons but now rejuvenated for the NL East champs with a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Inexplicable.


Health report:


• I am going to mostly forget about howterrible Astros shortstop Carlos Correawas the final months of the season, as it's painfully obvious he is dealing with a back injury. Correa missed the weekend series with the Angels, and fantasy managers who have relied on him since the All-Star break wish he had missed more. Correa is hitting .174 since the break and .195 for the season in home games. He was the No. 12 option in ESPN ADP. He will not be in 2019, but do not let him slip too far. Third round sounds fair.


• Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius tore cartilage in his wrist Saturday and might or might not be finished for the season. Those playing for something this final week should move on. Gregorius was fantastic in April, hitting .316 with 10 home runs, 30 RBIs and more walks than strikeouts, and he predictably leveled off after that, though it's tough to whine about a shortstop hitting 27 home runs with 86 RBIs. Eight shortstops, several who steal bases, are ahead of him on the Rater. Make Gregorius your 10th-round pick next season and he will be fine.


Closing time:


• Boston's Craig Kimbrel is the top relief pitcher on the 15-day Rater, but not far behind are Padres right-hander Kirby Yates, Blue Jays right-hander Ken Gilesand Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens. This is a reminder that closers on bad teams can help good fantasy managers as well. Yates boasts 84 strikeouts, top 20 among pure relievers. He could save 30 games next season. Giles claims he was not comfortable in Houston. Perhaps, but he is talented and regardless of venue is a reminder that it's mostly about opportunity. Credit Givens for finding a way to save nine games when the Orioles lose nearly every night. I do not know if Givens will get saves in 2019. Nobody does.


W2W4:


• Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer needs 10 strikeouts against the Marlins on Tuesday to reach 300 for the season, quite an achievement. There have been 16 individuals since 1900 to get there. I think Jacob deGrom is winning the NL Cy Young award regardless, unless his final outing goes very much awry. Scherzer has been awesome, as always, but a 2.57 ERA cannot match a 1.77 ERA, and by now we should all know that wins for pitchers hardly tell the entire story.


• ESPN has a Tuesday doubleheader -- rain permitting -- with Yankees right-hander Luis Severino in Baltimore for the first game and Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler at Arizona in the nightcap. Which pitcher would you want in 2019? The assumption might be Severino, since he was so amazing in 2017, but check his second half: a 5.74 ERA. Buehler has a 2.14 ERA since the All-Star break with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a future ace. Each of these pitchers should settle into the 15-to-20 range among starters for me in 2019.


• ESPN also has a doubleheader on Wednesday night, with Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin at St. Louis in the first game, and Ross Stripling facing Zack Greinke in the second. Chacin is not a strikeout option, but he went from undrafted in every fantasy league to his current No. 33 spot on the Player Rater among starters. The least you can do is trust him in his final regular season outing. Greinke is No. 13, one spot behind Severino. I have not considered Greinke a top-10 option among starters, but I also have no concerns about him going all Severino and threatening to leave the top 20. Consistency is preferred, and it is kind of nice to have a safe, reliable pitcher to count on that does not have to be selected in the first three or four rounds!
 
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