I'd like to clarify the exact definition of a system, and why most systems are not valid vehicles for revenue generation, but can be used as tools for 'capper calculations.
Long-winded explanation:
A system is a model that only needs data to calculate the likelihood of a result of an event in the future. More specifically, it uses a strict mathematical equation that correlates existing data without using outside agents to figure out the result. When that result is figured out, if there are significant deviations from the betting line, then a percentage can be calculated to produce a valued bet. That is my definition.
Simple explanation: A bettor enters data into the model. The model spits out the valued bet. A bettor makes the bet according to best odds. No extra research is done to find out about potential extraneous circumstances.
MOST systems will not perform at a rate that will be consistent enough to win at a significant pace at -110 (100/110) aggregate. SOME systems MAY perform to win at a SMALL to MODERATE pace at -105 (100/105).
HAVING SAID THAT...
Systems have their benefit for handicapping purposes. What they do is provide a relatively stable baseline for handicappers to start their own calculations. In addition, the more variables that can be properly categorized, the better chance the system can be identified as being able to produce advantages. This is key.
CONCLUSION: As said before, most systems, without 'capper interpretation, will not make money over the long run. Systems that have more data MAY, but not necessarily MEAN, that systems can make money without 'capper interpretation, but in all cases, nothing significant can be made.
The magic threshold at -110 is 56% with no more than a 3.2 deviation; at -105, you may be able to drop it to 55% (actually, 54.7%) with the same deviation. While lower numbers can win, the deviation amounts would probably not make it a safe bet, even for long term.
DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a handicapper, nor do I know how to become one. That being said, I CAN crunch numbers and deduce calculations. A 'capper can interpret the numbers better than I can; in other words, a 'capper would be able to effectively manufacture the calculation (which I cannot do). So if there is a system out there that can produce a 56% rate for 10 years, I will proclaim it a winner...until the books take those numbers into account with their lines.
EXTRA: I wanted to add something regarding individuals who handicap: There are many 'cappers who intuitively use calculations that a system may produce. This is analogous to a whiz kid mathematician who can whip out the answer in his head to a complicated math problem that would take us a minute to do by hand on paper, or even a few seconds to enter it on a calculator....and then correlate THAT number with other factors. In essence, 'good cappers may have that ability to correlate data in that manner. Most people call it "intuition," which is not ESP, but is more inline with what I said. Such intuition can also be internalized over time with experience, or even study and repetition.
:drink:
