Falcons tied for second in Vegas NFL power rankings
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots got a scare against the New York Jetson Sunday, but they are still the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings here at Chalk.
The Patriots, who are also the 7-5 Super Bowl favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, rallied to beat the New York Jets 22-17, but they failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. The Dallas Cowboys, the No. 1 team in ESPN's regular Power Rankings but No. 2 in the Westgate's Super Bowl futures at 4-1, beat the Washington Redskins 31-26 on Thanksgiving but also didn't cover as 6-point home favorites and were caught in the NFL Vegas Rankings by the Atlanta Falcons, 38-19 winners over the Arizona Cardinals as 4-point home faves.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled using the average of the power ratings from ESPN Chalk handicappers Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, along with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). They're intended to compare the relative strength of teams if they were to meet on a neutral field and what the point spread should be for those matchups, so there are some anomalies such as the Denver Broncos still being rated ahead of the AFC West-leading Oakland Raiders or the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers still rated ahead of the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.
We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes and to show other viewpoints. For instance, Massey-Peabody has had the New Orleans Saints ranked higher all season and our NFL Vegas Rankings are slowly catching up (though, to answer critics that we haven't upgraded the Lions' power rating enough, the FPI and Massey-Peabody also have them ranked 24th).
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 13 value plays using this week's power ratings:
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Movin' on up
As alluded to above, the biggest increase in our panel's rankings this week was 1.5 points by the Saints after their 49-21 rout of the Los Angeles Rams as 8-point home favorites. The Rams aren't that tough of an opponent, so part of the increase is to make up for not increasing enough earlier. The only other teams to receive a full-point increase in their power ratings were the aforementioned Falcons, the Buccaneers for their 14-5 upset of the Seahawks as 5.5-point home underdogs and the Packers for their 27-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football as 4-point road underdogs.
Dropping down
The biggest downgrade in this week's power ratings is the Chicago Bearsdropping 1.5 points. They actually covered in 27-21 loss to the Tennessee Titansas 6.5-point closing home 'dogs, but that line moved from pick 'em to 6.5 during the week after it was announced Matt Barkley was starting for the injured Jay Cutler, so part of that is an adjustment. The other teams losing a full point were the Seahawks, Vikings and Cardinals.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">NFL Vegas Rankings
Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Nov. 29
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</aside>Week 13 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays have dropped below .500 for the first time at 16-17-1 ATS so far this season after going 1-2-1 ATS in Week 12 with losses on a pair of 50/50 results -- the Minnesota Vikings +2.5 in their 16-13 loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving and the Bengals +4.5 in their 19-14 loss to the Ravens on Sunday - and a win on the Packers +4 in their 27-13 Monday night win over the Eagles.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 13 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Vegas consensus line: Dallas -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Dallas -2 (25.5-23-5)
Even with the Cowboys' great run this season and the Vikings' recent slip from the league's elite, we still have the Cowboys rated only 2 points better than the Vikings on a neutral field. With Minnesota's home-field advantage, we have this line closer to pick 'em. Even if others have a bigger difference between the two teams, we don't believe the Cowboys should be laying more than a field goal, so Minnesota +3.5 is a value play.
The play: Vikings +3.5
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Vegas consensus line: Baltimore -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Pick 'em (21-21)
Our panel has these teams rated the same on a neutral field. Now, we have home-field advantage rated at 2.5 points for most teams and the Ravens have done well at home in the John Harbaugh era, but with this line currently at 3.5, we see value on the road underdog.
The play: Dolphins +3.5 (pass at +3)
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals
Vegas consensus line: Arizona -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -0.5(22.5-22)
The Cardinals are another team that have been falling in the standings and in our rankings, but our panel still has them as half a point better than the Redskins on a neutral field. With home-field advantage, we have this line at a full field goal, so getting the Cardinals at less than that is a play.
The play: Cardinals -2.5 (pass at -3)
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots got a scare against the New York Jetson Sunday, but they are still the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings here at Chalk.
The Patriots, who are also the 7-5 Super Bowl favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, rallied to beat the New York Jets 22-17, but they failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. The Dallas Cowboys, the No. 1 team in ESPN's regular Power Rankings but No. 2 in the Westgate's Super Bowl futures at 4-1, beat the Washington Redskins 31-26 on Thanksgiving but also didn't cover as 6-point home favorites and were caught in the NFL Vegas Rankings by the Atlanta Falcons, 38-19 winners over the Arizona Cardinals as 4-point home faves.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled using the average of the power ratings from ESPN Chalk handicappers Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, along with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). They're intended to compare the relative strength of teams if they were to meet on a neutral field and what the point spread should be for those matchups, so there are some anomalies such as the Denver Broncos still being rated ahead of the AFC West-leading Oakland Raiders or the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers still rated ahead of the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.
We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes and to show other viewpoints. For instance, Massey-Peabody has had the New Orleans Saints ranked higher all season and our NFL Vegas Rankings are slowly catching up (though, to answer critics that we haven't upgraded the Lions' power rating enough, the FPI and Massey-Peabody also have them ranked 24th).
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 13 value plays using this week's power ratings:
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Movin' on up
As alluded to above, the biggest increase in our panel's rankings this week was 1.5 points by the Saints after their 49-21 rout of the Los Angeles Rams as 8-point home favorites. The Rams aren't that tough of an opponent, so part of the increase is to make up for not increasing enough earlier. The only other teams to receive a full-point increase in their power ratings were the aforementioned Falcons, the Buccaneers for their 14-5 upset of the Seahawks as 5.5-point home underdogs and the Packers for their 27-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football as 4-point road underdogs.
Dropping down
The biggest downgrade in this week's power ratings is the Chicago Bearsdropping 1.5 points. They actually covered in 27-21 loss to the Tennessee Titansas 6.5-point closing home 'dogs, but that line moved from pick 'em to 6.5 during the week after it was announced Matt Barkley was starting for the injured Jay Cutler, so part of that is an adjustment. The other teams losing a full point were the Seahawks, Vikings and Cardinals.
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Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Nov. 29
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| RANK | TEAM | NOV. 22 | NOV. 29 | FPI RANK | M-P RANK | SB ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 27.5 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 7-5 |
| T-2 | Dallas | 25.5 | 25.5 | 7 | 3 | 4-1 |
| T-2 | Atlanta | 24.5 | 25.5 | 4 | 6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | Seattle | 26 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 7-1 |
| T-5 | Pittsburgh | 23 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 14-1 |
| T-5 | Denver | 24.5 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 30-1 |
| T-7 | Oakland | 23.5 | 23.5 | T-12 | 20 | 12-1 |
| T-7 | Minnesota | 24.5 | 23.5 | 10 | 13 | 50-1 |
| 9 | Green Bay | 22 | 23 | T-12 | 8 | 30-1 |
| T-10 | Kansas City | 22.5 | 22.5 | T-12 | 10 | 18-1 |
| T-10 | Arizona | 23.5 | 22.5 | 9 | 12 | 80-1 |
| T-12 | Washington | 21.5 | 22 | 17 | 15 | 50-1 |
| T-12 | San Diego | 21.5 | 22 | 14 | 16 | 100-1 |
| T-14 | Buffalo | 21.5 | 21.5 | 8 | 9 | 80-1 |
| T-14 | New Orleans | 20 | 21.5 | 6 | 5 | 100-1 |
| T-14 | Philadelphia | 22 | 21.5 | 16 | 11 | 500-1 |
| T-17 | New York (N) | 20.5 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 25-1 |
| T-17 | Baltimore | 20.5 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 50-1 |
| T-17 | Miami | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 60-1 |
| T-17 | Houston | 21.5 | 21 | 26 | 27 | 80-1 |
| T-17 | Carolina | 21.5 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 300-1 |
| T-17 | Cincinnati | 21.5 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 1000-1 |
| 23 | Tampa Bay | 19.5 | 20.5 | 22 | 26 | 100-1 |
| T-24 | Indianapolis | 20.5 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 25-1 |
| T-24 | Tennessee | 19.5 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 60-1 |
| 26 | Detroit | 19 | 19 | 24 | 24 | 30-1 |
| 27 | New York (A) | 17.5 | 18 | 27 | 23 | XXXXXX |
| T-28 | Los Angeles | 17 | 16.5 | 31 | 29 | 1000-1 |
| T-28 | Jacksonville | 16 | 16.5 | 29 | 30 | XXXXXX |
| 30 | Chicago | 16.5 | 15 | 30 | 31 | XXXXXX |
| 31 | San Francisco | 12.5 | 13 | 28 | 28 | XXXXXX |
| 32 | Cleveland | 12.5 | 12 | 32 | 32 | XXXXXX |
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</aside>Week 13 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays have dropped below .500 for the first time at 16-17-1 ATS so far this season after going 1-2-1 ATS in Week 12 with losses on a pair of 50/50 results -- the Minnesota Vikings +2.5 in their 16-13 loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving and the Bengals +4.5 in their 19-14 loss to the Ravens on Sunday - and a win on the Packers +4 in their 27-13 Monday night win over the Eagles.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 13 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.
Vegas consensus line: Dallas -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Dallas -2 (25.5-23-5)
Even with the Cowboys' great run this season and the Vikings' recent slip from the league's elite, we still have the Cowboys rated only 2 points better than the Vikings on a neutral field. With Minnesota's home-field advantage, we have this line closer to pick 'em. Even if others have a bigger difference between the two teams, we don't believe the Cowboys should be laying more than a field goal, so Minnesota +3.5 is a value play.
The play: Vikings +3.5
Vegas consensus line: Baltimore -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Pick 'em (21-21)
Our panel has these teams rated the same on a neutral field. Now, we have home-field advantage rated at 2.5 points for most teams and the Ravens have done well at home in the John Harbaugh era, but with this line currently at 3.5, we see value on the road underdog.
The play: Dolphins +3.5 (pass at +3)
Vegas consensus line: Arizona -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -0.5(22.5-22)
The Cardinals are another team that have been falling in the standings and in our rankings, but our panel still has them as half a point better than the Redskins on a neutral field. With home-field advantage, we have this line at a full field goal, so getting the Cardinals at less than that is a play.
The play: Cardinals -2.5 (pass at -3)
