Falcon's NHL Plays

[MusicalMozart]

Guys~

MITM has been posting Falcon's plays in the NBA thread for a long time...

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1012082&page=3&p=10967667&posted=1#post10967667

... as you can see here in the above link.

MITM has asked me to help him out in posting his daily picks, as he's been too busy with life to devote the time needed to post plays in the forums and to follow up on them, as well as to help out with any questions from the cappers here in the forums -- so I'm happy to oblige, as I've gained from following Falcon's plays, so posting his plays and following up is my small measure of returning the favor to help others win, too.

His best plays so far have been the NHL plays, so I thought that Falcon's plays should be posted here in the NHL thread, too.

I've been tailing Falcon's hockey plays with a very nice profit.

I wish for you guys to also profit from Falcon's NHL plays, hence I'm posting his plays over here in the NHL thread.

The italicized paste below is from Falcon, via MITM, to wit:


NHL numbers for Sunday, Feb 1st

Stl 54% (-9.50)

Van 54% (-9.85)

Pitt 55% (-12.20)

Mont 67% (-18.50)


So we have nothing in the NHL today, back on Monday night.

As for the nba, easy pass here as well. Only 2 games on the board and neither is to be excited about.

Perfect day for me to just pass and have friends over and enjoy the SB

We will be back after them tomorrow. Good Luck with your SB wagers.

Falcon

 

[MusicalMozart]

If I understand Falcon's genius mathematical approach to these games, the numbers with the % are the odds of the respective teams winning; the +/- values reflect the expected returns on those teams, should they win.

Let's take a look at the Habs' values for the day, today.

The Habs are listed at a 67% probability to win, which is pretty good; however, the juice on the Habs is -245 (-260 at my book), which means a return of only around 38% of the unit that you'd be investing onto the Habs.

You'd have to bet on the Habs in that situation 3 times just to make a profit of one whole unit ... that's three times the risk of losing what you'd be risking with the Habs.

So, it's an easy pass, given that it has such low value/return, given the amount of unit(s) risked on that kind of play with high negative numbers.

MITM can correct me with a hockey stick hook if I have it wrong.

In summary, the % numbers are the odds of the respective teams to win.

The +/- numbers are the filters that filter out the high-juice, low-return plays and that enables one to minimize risk and maximize returns.

Falcon recommends to never bet on the teams that have negative +/- values, especially the high, double-digit values.

Falcon is happy to share his computer model numbers to help you guys figure out which teams to back.

 

[MusicalMozart]

Ok, Puck Fans,

MITM will be out until Tuesday, so he has already posted his plays in his NBA thread for Monday, Feb 2, as shown below:


Plays for Monday, Feb 2

Winnipeg (+110) 2 units NHL

Memphis -2 (-110) 2 units NBA


NHL numbers for Monday

Winn 59% (+22.00)
NYR 60% (-20.55)
SJ 65% (-24.80)


BOL to all of you.

​

 

[MusicalMozart]

MITM is out of town and busy, so I'm posting for him today.

Today's Plays for Tuesday, Feb 3

Chicago (-140) 2 units NHL

Philadelphia +6 (-110) 2 units NBA


25-13 (+22.10 units)
65.79% Winners
(-108) avg juice on losses
Each for 2 units
Since Jan 10

Today's NHL numbers:

Col 51% +17.40

Chi 65% +15.25

Ott 55% +12.55

Wash 60% +6.00

NYI 66% NL

Stl 61% NL

CLB 60% -3.25

Ana 68% -6.30

Nash 68% -9.00

Mont 71% -15.50

Van 53% -19.00

BOL to all of you ...

 

[MusicalMozart]

Falcon does not have any NHL plays today, just NBA; however, included in today's post are the NHL numbers for your consideration.

Today's Plays

Boston -2 (-115) 2 units NBA

Dallas +8.5 (-110) 2 units NBA

Detroit +3.5 (-110) 2 units NBA


26-14 (+21.30 units)
65% Winners
(-109) avg juice on losses
each played for 2 units

NHL: 14-5 (73.68%)
NBA: 12-9 (57.14%)

NHL numbers for today

SJ 55% (+1.40)
Pitt 64% (no line)
NYR 55% (-3.50)

Big NBA card. I expect a slight upturn coming for our NBA program.
The NHL is fine and will return tomorrow night.
I paid just a little extra juice to get Bos at (-2)...

Betting Model
1-3 Top Plays Daily
57.14% Winners or better
(-110) avg juice on losses
2% of BR on each

Lets see if we can maintain our numbers for all of 2015..

Good Luck with your wagers

Falcon
​

 

[MusicalMozart]

Today's Plays

Detroit (-105) 2 units NHL
Charlotte -1 (-110) 2 units NBA

27-16 (+18.90 units)
62.79% Winners
(-110) avg juice on losses
Each for 2 units


NHL numbers

Det 61% +22.50
Isles 56% +9.90
Fla 52% +6.60
Wash 55% +4.95
Nash 53% NL
AZ 53% -7.05
Van 55% -12.00
TB 56% 12.10
Stl 69% -21.45

Falcon Sports