11/25
R1 - #5 Northern Reflection (9-2) has never finished in the money at a mile, but also hasn't raced at these depths before. Looks dangerous in a wide open race - the rail horse is lone speed and could run away, or he could melt and the #7 could pounce. 1,5,7 will be in my horizontals.
R2 - #7 Taylor's Secret (4-1) makes her FG debut and lures Reylu in another toss-up race. She's won fresh before and has a nice work tab leading up to this. She is within a neck of being a perfect 2 for 2 at this level. 5,7,8 are in the mix.
R3 - #7 Drop Dead Sexy (6-1) will go early along with the #3, but if she can put her away I don't see anything with enough closing kick to worry me. Maybe the #2? It looks to me like 2,3,7 are the main players.
R4 - #6 Mill Street (6-1) Godolphin-bred gets Ben Curtis for his Fairgrounds debut. I believe Curtis is going to have an excellent meet and will be watching his mounts closely. This one was competitive in his only two starts (Keeneland & Colonial) despite poor starts in both. Only needs a better break to win today. I like 4,6,7 as top contenders.
R5 - #3 Madam Blue (3-1) should romp over these. Watch the tote on Calhoun's first-timer, though (#6) - could be live today.
R6 - #2 Mighty Kai (8-1) 2 year-old turf routes in Nola are a late runner's dream. Although Cox looks to have a monster in the #3, I'm going to go elsewhere and land on the Maker colt at what should be a much better price. The 2,3,5, & 7 will all have enough late juice to get the job done. I predict a blanket finish.
R7 - #4 Berlaine (4-1) started way out in the 12 post for debut at Keeneland. Now moves inside 8 slots and gets Lasix plus the scorching hot Lanerie. I might single this one, but the 2 & 7 both interest me as possibilities.
R8 - #3 Twice As Sweet (15-1) This race has the look of a long shot stepping up and scoring a surprise victory. I looked at the #4 and #10 as possible choices, but settled here on a filly that has a win and a place in two tries sprinting on grass. She show three works at FG getting ready for this - probably won't get 15-1, but the odds should still be generous. I may put small win bets on the 4 & 10 also. Main contenders are 2,5,8 if the longshots fail.
R9 - #1 Freddie By A Nose (6-1) Taking a stab here in the nightcap with a Star Guitar first timer under Big, Bad, Ben Curtis. Rivelli's babies hit at about 20% in debuts and I imagine the odds will drift up as the stragglers try to get all their money back on the Maker gelding. My horizontals will likely include 1,2,4.
Good luck if you're playing - it's a beautiful day on the Gulf Coast. I wish I could be at the track.