generally, the lower the total the better chance you have for a middle if you catch a key number (or not).
one of the problems with football is the different versions of scoring. 1pt, 2pts (possible), 3pts, 6pts. the variance in scoring differential is fairly wide in the NFL (most common # is 3 of course) but no exact differential comes in at an alarming rate. I would imagine in NCAA football the scoring differential is even more diverse since the totals can be a lot higher. Add in the fact that PAT misses and FG misses and 2pt conversion attempts are more common in the NCAA and those key numbers are less likely than the NFL.
I'm no expert on middling. I have been somewhat successful at it in baskets. The key to middling is knowing which numbers (spreads) are 'real' and when the books are just throwing something out there to get an opinion knowing full-well that the public will take it even though it is off. For example, in basketball if a public team say the Lakers on the road should be -2 point favorites, but the books know from historical data that the public will take them at -3.5 to -4.5 and the sharps will take the home dog....
it gets complicated to explain. if you see the line move from that -4.5 down to -3 and the public is all over the Lakers, you can see a little of what is going on. A lot of times the books will move on sharp action b/c it will keep coming in if they dont move it. The public often takes any number that is offered, they are betting on a team. So if you keep it at -4.5 you get a lot of sharp action which may OUTWEIGH public action, by moving it down to another number they decrease the sharp money and increase the public money on the wrong side.
this is a pretty bad example and sometimes the books move the numbers just to give the impression that sharp action is coming in. It throws off the steam chasers. sometimes they move the numbers b/c they arent getting any action at the current # and by moving it they generate more opinion. How to tell which is which is which??? I have a little bit of an idea, but I need an example to illustrate. For me it's a sort of instinct developed with experience. I'm wrong plenty of times, but when you see enough scenarios you can filter out some of the chaff and start developing angles which turn into systems of which the top subsets churn out over 55% winners year in and year out because they are based on VALUE, not trends, but on misconceptions that the oddsmakers forecast that the public will have in advance, because they have so many thousands of games of data to base this on. And a formula has been developed from this. Are THEY wrong? Did TB destroy ATL last week?
But the formula works OVER TIME. They get it in the end. You will see the lines tighten at the end of each sporting season. Two reasons: one, they have a better feel for a team's performance and can determine a median with more accuracy. two, the public taps out. sure they reload every now and then and some years are better than others for joe public, but when the public isnt putting as much money on the games, you can count on those lines being a lot tighter, it never fails b/c you are now wagering against sharp money, not the guys that dont even line shop and will take a -4 when the spread should -1.5, but the people who have a good idea of what the line should be and will hit any weak number that appears on a paying screen. That is just some thoughts, but it can help set up some middle opps as the line is hammered down to it's true number. If you catch the opener sensing that it is off, and it moves enough for you to assume there are enough numbers in between for it to land at the required percentage taking into account the vig you must lay, then you may do all right. But you need to have a good idea of what the number is. A lot of openers are meant to move, they set them at -14.5 knowing they will go down to -13 or -13.5, whatever. And many times the true number is not the key number in between, it could be -12. One thing that I sometimes do is catch an opening number with a little bit more on it, knowing it will move a certain way. Was -2.5 for instance, now when it hits 3 I can hedge if need be or if it goes across 3 I can decide if I want lay a little off hoping the final score lands exactly on 3. I'm out of breath and this probably doesnt make a whole lot of sense but that is some of what crosses my mind when I look at middle for basketball. One thing I have noticed is that injury games seem to land VERY close to the number for some reason. The first BIG middle I hit was when T-MAC was announced out vs NYK and the line moved 2.5 to 3.5 points in 10 minutes.
