Fading the Astros and Diamondbacks

[ToothedTeddy]

combined 21-44 against the spread. I get that the juice is adjusted accordingly... but would you not be profiting betting against both teams night in and night out? their run differential is -55 and -60, a sign of truly bad teams. maybe just start fading them against the run line?

interested in hearing some feedback from those that know bases betting as I don't. thanks

 

[ToothedTeddy]

run line w/l
DBacks 12-22
Astros 15-16

 

[ToothedTeddy]

one other interesting statistic if you put stock in run line differential. the Rangers are -20 yet have a .533 winning percentage. this tells us that they're a team to fade in the future as they've been lucky so far. betting against them RL has been a profitable -813 units, but not as profitable as betting against Zona RL (-1773)

 

[finite]

If you think you should fade Arizona you could easily be right but the facts do not seem to support it. On the road they are 8-8 which is very reasonable and with 5 wins in their last 10 ten probably have earned some respect. I know I was very surprised in how well they played in their last 3 games.
Astro's are a case by case by case affair. Their scoring seems to be going up and they are improving
but the payroll is still too small to allow them to be a real team. I think you need to pick your spots betting on or against them

 

[Willie99]

if I were to go down this path, I'd probably just do a ML parlay

I think Brewers -1.5 is going to be one of the most popular (read easiest) plays on the board, and I don't like being on that side

I know I may miss some winners, but staying away serves me well in the long run (I was queued up to do Mil -1.5, took it down)

 

[ToothedTeddy]

thanks for the feedback finite and Willie

 

[ToothedTeddy]

'Stros/DBacks 0-4

 

[ToothedTeddy]

'Stros/DBacks/Rangers now 2-7

in other words, 7-2 if you're fading away. easy $$