Fade the Public

[DanTanna]

Is it that time of year when Vegas makes a mint? When lines look easy, but they're really not. (like SCarolina +7.5 against a tired and sliding Arkansas team) Or Utah St -2.5....all they had to do was win by a field goal.
I think I'm going to fade the public all weekend.

 

[BigPete]

 

[jimmymo]

This may be a stupid question -- but, other than having bookie info, how do we accurately gauge what the public is on?

 

[LSUpete]

When you see Colorado State move up to a 3 point favorite tonight....you'll have a good idea.

 

[jimmymo]

yup, nearly 3 to 1 in favor of CSU on wagerline.

Can anyone provide other places where they have similar consensus statistics?

 

[BigPete]

bigguy.com

 

[jimmymo]

nice -- thanks Pete

 

[mickeyb3]

hey pete do you find fading the consensus successful on bigguy

 

[BigPete]

I really dont fade consensus as a whole. I use it to watch line moves, lack there of, opposite line moves of consensus, then compare to stats, etc...

I just usually look at wagerline as they have more folks. You could fade their over calls and make 55% blindly.

 

[mickeyb3]

pete one more question how good are the team experts and top 10% picks on wagerline. do you follow those any . thanks for your time.

 

[KMAN]

New Mexico wins this one. They have the better defense and should be able to run on CSU.

KMAN

 

[BigPete]

Top 10% are around 56%, but their consensus is not good. I reviewed a few of the top players and their picks and some are consistent over the past 2 years, but most are just having a good year. I dont follow them, just use the consensus as a half ass guage. Better than nothing.

I like New Mexico too, just hate the losing history against this team, but maybe that is why CSU is getting points..????