The public is almost ALWAYS going to take the favorite in a game. In fact, it happens 84% of the time.
However, there are times when the public is attracted to a dog. Typically this is when a dog yields a TON of points and people think "the favorite can't possibly cover this" or the dog is a popular team (like the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, etc.)
You want to fade this.
BET on any favorite who has less than 50% of the action on them (12-5 +6.5 units since 2-10)
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 480pt;" width="638" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 22pt;" width="29"> <col style="width: 144pt;" width="192"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 24pt;" width="32"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 36pt;" width="48"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 52pt;" width="69"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody align="left"><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 22pt;" width="29" height="20">PTS</td> <td style="width: 144pt;" width="192">TEAM</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">BETS</td> <td style="width: 24pt;" width="32">PER</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">OP</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">CL</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">CH</td> <td style="width: 36pt;" width="48">W/L</td> <td style="width: 37pt;" width="49">DATE</td> <td style="width: 52pt;" width="69">MONEY</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">106</td> <td class="xl66">522 Portland Trail Blazers</td> <td class="xl64">9032</td> <td class="xl65">49%</td> <td class="xl64">-11.5</td> <td class="xl64">-12</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>2</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">91</td> <td class="xl66">502 Philadelphia 76ers</td> <td class="xl64">6312</td> <td class="xl65">49%</td> <td class="xl64">-12</td> <td class="xl64">-11</td> <td>-1</td> <td>-7</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">122</td> <td class="xl66">514 Milwaukee Bucks</td> <td class="xl64">3382</td> <td class="xl65">47%</td> <td class="xl64">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64">-5</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>7</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">73</td> <td class="xl66">504 Orlando Magic</td> <td class="xl64">7553</td> <td class="xl65">37%</td> <td class="xl64">-7.5</td> <td class="xl64">-7</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>-16</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">128</td> <td class="xl66">524 Los Angeles Clippers</td> <td class="xl64">9071</td> <td class="xl65">35%</td> <td class="xl64">-3</td> <td class="xl64">-5.5</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>-1.5</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">113</td> <td class="xl66">520 Utah Jazz</td> <td class="xl64">11830</td> <td class="xl65">17%</td> <td class="xl64">2.5</td> <td class="xl64">-1</td> <td>3.5</td> <td>3</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">706 Washington Wizards</td> <td class="xl64">4887</td> <td class="xl65">43%</td> <td class="xl64">-3</td> <td class="xl64">-2.5</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>5.5</td> <td class="xl67">17-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">100</td> <td class="xl64">702 Indiana Pacers</td> <td class="xl64">6946</td> <td class="xl65">39%</td> <td class="xl64">-2</td> <td class="xl64">-2</td> <td>0</td> <td>7</td> <td class="xl67">17-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" height="20">113</td> <td class="xl64">507 Chicago Bulls</td> <td class="xl64">4794</td> <td class="xl65">47%</td> <td class="xl64">1</td> <td class="xl64">-2</td> <td>3</td> <td>7</td> <td class="xl67">18-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">117</td> <td class="xl64">510 New Orleans Hornets</td> <td class="xl64">6471</td> <td class="xl65">32%</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td>0</td> <td>30.5</td> <td class="xl67">18-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">79</td> <td class="xl64">702 Detroit Pistons</td> <td class="xl64">11856</td> <td class="xl65">22%</td> <td class="xl64">1</td> <td class="xl64">-1</td> <td>2</td> <td>-5</td> <td class="xl67">19-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">93</td> <td class="xl64">864 Houston Rockets</td> <td class="xl64">10998</td> <td class="xl65">34%</td> <td class="xl64">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64">-4</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>3</td> <td class="xl67">20-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">804 Toronto Raptors</td> <td class="xl64">7698</td> <td class="xl65">37%</td> <td class="xl64">-3</td> <td class="xl64">-3.5</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>7.5</td> <td class="xl67">22-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">506 New Jersey Nets</td> <td class="xl64">6194</td> <td class="xl65">42%</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td>0</td> <td>10.5</td> <td class="xl67">25-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" height="20">132</td> <td class="xl64">704 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64">15856</td> <td class="xl65">47%</td> <td class="xl64">-9</td> <td class="xl64">-11</td> <td>2</td> <td>15</td> <td class="xl67">26-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">92</td> <td class="xl64">506 Memphis Grizzlies</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">7778</td> <td class="xl65">46%</td> <td class="xl64">-4</td> <td class="xl64">-7</td> <td>3</td> <td>-14</td> <td class="xl67">28-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">105</td> <td class="xl64">508 Chicago Bulls</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">15038</td> <td class="xl65">39%</td> <td class="xl64">1</td> <td class="xl64">-1</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td class="xl67">28-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
I ended up losing a weeks worth of my data due to a power outage for NCAAB, I will try and test there as well.
However, there are times when the public is attracted to a dog. Typically this is when a dog yields a TON of points and people think "the favorite can't possibly cover this" or the dog is a popular team (like the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, etc.)
You want to fade this.
BET on any favorite who has less than 50% of the action on them (12-5 +6.5 units since 2-10)
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 480pt;" width="638" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 22pt;" width="29"> <col style="width: 144pt;" width="192"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 24pt;" width="32"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 36pt;" width="48"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 52pt;" width="69"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody align="left"><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 22pt;" width="29" height="20">PTS</td> <td style="width: 144pt;" width="192">TEAM</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">BETS</td> <td style="width: 24pt;" width="32">PER</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">OP</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">CL</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">CH</td> <td style="width: 36pt;" width="48">W/L</td> <td style="width: 37pt;" width="49">DATE</td> <td style="width: 52pt;" width="69">MONEY</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">106</td> <td class="xl66">522 Portland Trail Blazers</td> <td class="xl64">9032</td> <td class="xl65">49%</td> <td class="xl64">-11.5</td> <td class="xl64">-12</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>2</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">91</td> <td class="xl66">502 Philadelphia 76ers</td> <td class="xl64">6312</td> <td class="xl65">49%</td> <td class="xl64">-12</td> <td class="xl64">-11</td> <td>-1</td> <td>-7</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">122</td> <td class="xl66">514 Milwaukee Bucks</td> <td class="xl64">3382</td> <td class="xl65">47%</td> <td class="xl64">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64">-5</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>7</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">73</td> <td class="xl66">504 Orlando Magic</td> <td class="xl64">7553</td> <td class="xl65">37%</td> <td class="xl64">-7.5</td> <td class="xl64">-7</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>-16</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">128</td> <td class="xl66">524 Los Angeles Clippers</td> <td class="xl64">9071</td> <td class="xl65">35%</td> <td class="xl64">-3</td> <td class="xl64">-5.5</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>-1.5</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">113</td> <td class="xl66">520 Utah Jazz</td> <td class="xl64">11830</td> <td class="xl65">17%</td> <td class="xl64">2.5</td> <td class="xl64">-1</td> <td>3.5</td> <td>3</td> <td class="xl67">11-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">706 Washington Wizards</td> <td class="xl64">4887</td> <td class="xl65">43%</td> <td class="xl64">-3</td> <td class="xl64">-2.5</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>5.5</td> <td class="xl67">17-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">100</td> <td class="xl64">702 Indiana Pacers</td> <td class="xl64">6946</td> <td class="xl65">39%</td> <td class="xl64">-2</td> <td class="xl64">-2</td> <td>0</td> <td>7</td> <td class="xl67">17-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" height="20">113</td> <td class="xl64">507 Chicago Bulls</td> <td class="xl64">4794</td> <td class="xl65">47%</td> <td class="xl64">1</td> <td class="xl64">-2</td> <td>3</td> <td>7</td> <td class="xl67">18-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">117</td> <td class="xl64">510 New Orleans Hornets</td> <td class="xl64">6471</td> <td class="xl65">32%</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td>0</td> <td>30.5</td> <td class="xl67">18-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">79</td> <td class="xl64">702 Detroit Pistons</td> <td class="xl64">11856</td> <td class="xl65">22%</td> <td class="xl64">1</td> <td class="xl64">-1</td> <td>2</td> <td>-5</td> <td class="xl67">19-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">93</td> <td class="xl64">864 Houston Rockets</td> <td class="xl64">10998</td> <td class="xl65">34%</td> <td class="xl64">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64">-4</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>3</td> <td class="xl67">20-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">804 Toronto Raptors</td> <td class="xl64">7698</td> <td class="xl65">37%</td> <td class="xl64">-3</td> <td class="xl64">-3.5</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>7.5</td> <td class="xl67">22-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">506 New Jersey Nets</td> <td class="xl64">6194</td> <td class="xl65">42%</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td class="xl64">-1.5</td> <td>0</td> <td>10.5</td> <td class="xl67">25-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" height="20">132</td> <td class="xl64">704 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64">15856</td> <td class="xl65">47%</td> <td class="xl64">-9</td> <td class="xl64">-11</td> <td>2</td> <td>15</td> <td class="xl67">26-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">92</td> <td class="xl64">506 Memphis Grizzlies</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">7778</td> <td class="xl65">46%</td> <td class="xl64">-4</td> <td class="xl64">-7</td> <td>3</td> <td>-14</td> <td class="xl67">28-Feb</td> <td>-110</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" height="20">105</td> <td class="xl64">508 Chicago Bulls</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">15038</td> <td class="xl65">39%</td> <td class="xl64">1</td> <td class="xl64">-1</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td class="xl67">28-Feb</td> <td>100</td> <td>W</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
I ended up losing a weeks worth of my data due to a power outage for NCAAB, I will try and test there as well.