fade the espn bottom line system

[mjred]

i have done this in the past with mixed results but its kinda fun anyway. the idea is to bet against a team being 'touted' on espn's bottom line ticker, could also apply to taking a team if a side is being touted against. tonight's best example is 'ole miss 10-1 at home' which is going by every 5 minutes with the scores, also have 'oklahoma st 14 game win streak' scrolling by, as well as 'ecu beat marq 73-70 last meeting' tho not sure exactly how to interpret that (ie is that a tout of the revenge angle for marq or that ecu has their number),so cleearly if going to play opposite of these, the sides would be:

miss st
iowa st

and a ? on ecu


editing this post to put the record at the top of the thread. adding a 'streak' stat, = number of consecutive winning (+) or losing (-) days
summary

date rec sum streak
1/29 1-5 1-5 (-1)
1/30 3-6 4-11 (-2)
1/31 3-1 7-12 (+1)
2/01 n/p 7-12 (+1)
2/02 5-2 12-14 (+2)
2/03 2-1 14-15 (+3)
2/04 5-4 19-19 (+4)
2/05 4-9 23-28 (-1)
2/06 3-4 26-32 (-2)
2/07 1-2 27-34 (-3)

[This message was edited by mjred on 02-08-03 at 05:59 AM.]

[This message was edited by mjred on 02-08-03 at 06:01 AM.]

[This message was edited by mjred on 02-08-03 at 06:01 AM.]

 

[mjred]

few more

'louisville held all opps under 50% fg' play so miss

'mich best big 10 start since 76-77' play illi (bit scary)

'georgia 11-1 last 12 games' play vandy

'johnson, missouri 10 double doubles' play nebraska


again, not necessarily recommending these right off, but will track for fun at least for a little while. anybody else wants to contribute ones that i missed, please do.

 

I used to monitor this and I think you are on to something
GL

Butternuts is a genius

 

[mjred]

record keeping

experiment day 1, 1/29 - 1-5 (1-4-1 if had -1 on miss st)

season 1-5

 

[kidslick]

thats too funny

crazy minds think alike..........

ex if buff scored only 10 goals in there last 7 games.. i would normally play the over.

ex jazz have scored over 100 points in there last 10 games. that means i played the under tonight... works pretty well.

kidslick

 

[jwunderdog]

That is pretty funny , it fits pretty well down here where many of us like to fade the public. I would love to see how this turns out please let us know.

 

[mjred]

yeah, seemed like a good fit for the rr.

here's what i'm seeing so far today

nhl

'alanta 5-1-1 under hartley', play tor, (i already liked/played atl so tough one here)
'pit 8 goals last 5 games', play pit
'boston 3 g winstreak', play chi
'rangers outscored 16-5 last 3 games' play nyr

nba
'milw 8-2 last 10', play wash

ncaabb
'duke 22 strait h wins' play butler
'oregon 4 g w streak', play ucla
'cal won last 4 meetings', play azst
'ariaona 10 g w streak', play stanford

might be more but its hard to read them and type them at the same time. contributions welcome.

 

[mjred]

nothing spectacular yet, from the fade side but if you're fading the fade, you're on fire. lol.

hockey splits 2-2
nba 0-1 tho probably could have shopped for a push there
ncaa 1-3 but the 1 is a big dog su winner.

day 3-6
season 4-11

 

[mjred]

here's what i'm seeing today

nba
'indiana lost b2b games only 3 times ty' play toronto
'cleveland 3 g losing streak to atlanta' play cleveland
'chi 2-21 on the road' play chicago
'houston 1-5 last 6' play houston

 

[mjred]

cleveland squeaks in, chicago just misses, toronto and houston easy.

3-1 today
7-12 this week

saturday's are tough so any input welcome, post the espn bottom line quote and what you think the fade play should be.

 

[gold64]

I think you have a good idea here; but we're at the mercy of some imbecile reaching for any factoid to display that fits in the box. As easily as he may find the Home team has won seven in a row on Saturdays, he may post the Away has won the last six times they've played at night.

 

[mjred]

may be, mr gold. just playing around with it really. its been a few years since i tracked it with regularity so thought it would be fun to do at least for a while. one can make any number f assumptions or speculations about why and what gets up on the screen, but the most parsimonious in my view is that the person <intern> doing it grabs whatever is easiest, as you mentioned, and thus perhaps the most obvious <public> opinion would be formed by it. one might also come up with a myriad of more nefarious or sinister plots with a variety of puppet masters behind the scenes carefully controlling the messages. either way, i enjoy tracking it and when i think i see some patterns i may even make some small bets based on the tracking. until then, all in fun. saturday btw i guess too busy with actual scores and news to run any factoids, tho the one that was running, 'knight 799 wins' would have tended to put me on a&m. i expect there should be a fair number tomorrow.

 

[mjred]

probably missed a few this morning but here's what i saw.
ncaa
'michigan st 9-1 at home' - take illinlois
'duke 20-3 vs fsu'- take fsu
'oregon 5 g win st' and 'oregon coacn kent 199 wins' - take usc
'unc 146 wins al time vs wake' then later 'wake last won 3straight from unc 1971' take ???

nba
'clippers 2-5 vs toronto' - take toronto
'denver 80.4 ppg, last in nba' - take denver
'sac 12-5 vs midwest div' - take houston

 

mjred:

If you saw the Clippers were 2-5 vs Toronto.. I would think you would take the Clippers

 

[mjred]

j2, yep, sorry wrote that one backwards. was after tip time anyway. but you right. should be - take clippers.

also re denver game, - take over- would be another fade angle there.

 

[mjred]

2/2 results
after no plays saturday, decent results on sunday

illinois squeaks in thanks to msu crappy ft shooting
usc easy, fsu easy

nba
clips fail miserably. houston w, denver w, denver over l.

so 5-2 for the day and bringing the overall up to

12-14

 

[mjred]

2/3

ncaabb

'gtown 1-4 last 5' - play gtown
'ku won 3straight vs mizzu' and 'ku 14 straight big 12 wins' play mizzu

nba
'memphis won 2 straight v gs' play gs

will keep an eye out for more

 

[mjred]

'nother squeaker loss with gtown but mizzu covers easy, goldenstate tried to give up the backdoor but were unsuccessful as memphis unable to fill the bucket in the second h apparently winded fromt he trip to denver.

2-1 today record approaching even at

14-15 overall (after a 4-11 start on the first 2 days)

 

[mjred]

nhl
'detroit 15-5-4-1 at home' - take nashv
'wash 9-2-1-0 vs southeast div' take tampa
'buff 109 goals fewest in nhl' and 'nj 96 goals allowed fewest in nhl' take over
'nyi 8-2 last 10 at home' - take philly

nba

indiana 22-2 at home' - take lakers
'portland 23-5 when outrebounding opp' - take orlando (damn, already had portland here, o well, hope this ones a loser)
'milwauk 8-2 lat 10' - take toronto
'denver 3-14 vs east conf' take denver
'minn 18-5 at home' - take houston

 

[mjred]

hockey goes 3-1 aswashington continues to dominate the se div,

tough loss on denver as they blow the 4th q lead then get backdoored on a last second bomb at the end of ot. pleasant loss for the system on orlando tho as i had portland from early in the day.

5-4 today
19-19 since inception