Fade My Players - Wk 2 Recap & Wk 3 Early Action

[SmallTimeBook]

Last week was another winning week for me as the book. I did notice that the games were there was the widest margin of difference in action were the better plays to fade.

Week 2 Recap

Wide Margin of Difference 4-1
UCONN -WINNER
Ohio State -WINNER
Houston -WINNER
Georgia -LOSER
Florida International -WINNER

Medium Margin of Difference 0-5
Penn State -LOSER
Tulane -LOSER
Arkansas State -LOSER
Troy -LOSER
Virginia -LOSER

Small Margin of Difference 2-4
San Jose State -WINNER
Michigan -WINNER
Texas -LOSER
Oregon State -LOSER
UTEP -LOSER
Marshall -LOSER

Luckily for me, there was enough action on the Wide Difference plays to cover the $$ on the Mediums and Smalls.

So far this week, I seem to be taking almost equal action on all the games that have come in so far. Most of my players have their action in by Friday night, so I will update after that timeframe.

GL

 

[walnut5225]

interesting --- thanks for posting

 

[RazorGus]

Thanks for the info. Great tool to add to our arsenals.......

 

[ArizonaBound]

post those big differentials. even with small sample size these are the ones i like to be on. or at least avoid the ones where most players are going.

 

[FadeMeToWin]

so to clarify, the 4-1 record on the wide margin would be the record if you FADED your players?

 

[SmallTimeBook]

so to clarify, the 4-1 record on the wide margin would be the record if you FADED your players?

The teams I list are the teams to play if you are fading my players.

On tonight's game, I am bringing in 50-50 action. Bodes well for me, I'll at least make the juice, but no advantage for any of you guys with that.

 

[SmallTimeBook]

Here is the action I'm bringing in so far...most of my players are in.

Here are the teams to play (fades of my players)

Big Margin
FSU
Temple
Nebraska
East Carolina

Mid Margin
Tulsa
UL-Laf
Oregon St

Small Margin
Duke
Minnesota
Oregon
Tennessee
Southern Cal
Boise State
Rice
Aarkansas
Texas
North Texas

Looks like the kind of week I like most. Getting closer to even action on majority of plays. Last week the Big Margin plays went 4-1 and the Mids and Smalls were not so hot.

If anything greatly changes, I will update the post.

 

[ArizonaBound]

I would expect your big margin plays to work out for YOU in the long run, but the small sample size could be a concern. My buddy has 50-100 players during fb and when he has heavy action he calls me and pushes it off. I win more than lose most weeks. Even though he knows that, he is VERY conservative and doesn't want to get caught buried for a week or two. Of course they are mostly on favs. When they love a dog the FAV is usually money.

Keep sharing, thanks!

 

[Baseballer19]

So Zona...are u sayin if we see dogs in the small margin section we should play those favs?

 

[ArizonaBound]

NO, sorry for the confusion.

BIG MARGIN ONLY

If the players are betting heavy or lopsided on the DOG then the fav covers more often than not.

So for example, this week. If my guy calls me and says that his players are hammering Georgia +2 or Tennessee +30 than the FAV is the side to play. Just from my experience, when his players love the dog, it goes bad for them. They also do poorly when they are lopsided on the fav too, but the dogs do better in these scenarios....MY experience anyway.

In his example he has 4 dogs all listed as big margin plays. That means his players love the favs in those games, EXPECTED. My guy calls me and usually bets the FAVS (80% I'm guessing) because when his players gang up on a play it is usually a FAV.

If you see him post a FAV play in the big margin you will want to stay away from the fav and go with the dog. You have to consider the geographical area as well. Like last night he called me and bet big on Miami (meaning he had too much action for his liking with Miami), but I fully expected that (He is in the Tampa area). Just like they will bet the snot out of Florida I'm sure. Funny thing is, they love to fade their shitty teams cuz (Like Tampa Bucs last week). His players were all over Cowboys last week. I got stuck with a big loss on that one, but I win more than lose over the season.

 

[mws]

3-1 on the big ones. Nice. Looking forward to this week's info.

 

[FadeMeToWin]

If i read this correctly, this "system" is now 7-2 over the last two weeks. Thanks for the help.