Factors that can lead the linesmakers to be off

[BigGamesOnly]

Looking at the topic titled "How do they set the lines with such accuracy" we see that the linesmakers are off on a frequent basis. I've compiled a list of what I think are factors that may lead the linesmakers to be off. If you have some, please share.

-When a poor team has success against other poor teams.
The linesmakers have a tendency to give that team a better line.

-A good team bouncing back from a bad beat.
Often times the good team will take it out on a bad team after a bad beat and will win by much more than the line.

-2nd half total in basketball is often larger than number of points scored in the 1st half.
I have heard this is to compensate for OT. The books are factoring this in. However, when a game is not close in the 1st half this higher total is not in danger of going to OT.

-Games that will be blowouts but linesmakers are reluctant to post a high amount of points favored.
Some linesmakers are reluctant to post lines favoring a team by a lot of points. They feel that they will not get much action on one side of a big line.

-Teams that have given up are often not large underdogs.
I realize that squares bet for the favorite frequently. However, I feel there are good times of the season to bet this way. This is when bad teams have given up and are playing teams still in contention. If you can get a line that favors the better team by a small amount that team oftentimes finds a way to win.

-Good teams playing bad teams but have a big game coming up.
The 1st half line is mostly the total game line divided by 2 and rounded up a little. In games where a good team is looking ahead while playing a poor team, the good team will run up the score in the 1st half.

 

[acw]

BigGamesOnly,

Those that compile the initial lines (I think that is at least what you are talking about, because after that it should be the public that moves them) are aware of all the factors that you just mentioned! Believe me!

Where you will see big differences in opening lines is where it is unclear how far the linesmakers have to look back to set a team's current rating. None of this is any difficult when the season has been going on for some time and there have been no team changes, but when teams are changing or teams (like in international Football) do not play very often, then you will see big differences.

 

[bongzanpoker]

it's all in the price.. they open lines with good enough accuracy, their theoretical hold is about 3.5% and a book wins about 2% on sides. they are in accurate 80% of the time, 10% of the time in the ballpark range where the number should be still being + expectation for the book and the last 10% they are out of line and these lines cost ALOT of money to a book in the long run. this is where sharp players make i'd say around 75% of their incomes. soft lines.

what are the factors.. mishandling, overseeing, little research or misinterpreting information and some cases linesmaker bias - of course if a linesmaker or also a bookmaker could be that silly in the production or betting duration of a line.

what an art

 

[bongzanpoker]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> they are in accurate 80% of the time, <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

take out in

oops

 

[BigGamesOnly]

acw:

You and I agree that the books are aware of these factors. The point I was trying to make (and I think you supported in your post) is how inaccurate these lines can be when taking those factors into consideration.

I've seen some lines way off as to what the result actually turns out to be, and sometimes on a regular basis. This is when I try to make the most money.

 

[acw]

BigGamesOnly,

Sorry rereading our posts I think we have some misunderstandings here. I was focussing on why bookmakers sometimes (and themselves actually being aware of it) have a hard time compiling the initial lines. And it then being no surprise one finds huge differences amongst the books, in which case the whole RX community will have their busiest times scalping, middling, etc.

You are actually claiming that there are moments that all books are off in the same way not disputing each other. Well you are right and Thank God there are such moments. Not being a scalper, middler, etc. myself anymore I need those to win.

As much as the linesmakers sometimes have difficulties compiling the lines, I have the same problem, so I do not like betting big on those matches. Where I personally find my biggest advantage is where the public/coaches/linesmakers, etc. have a completely different view of how good or bad a certain player is from my personal opinion.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Speaking of the public being on a team, I made a post in the Basketball Forum about how teams that have a large fan base often lose ATS in the long run. That is because the books know that the public will bet on a bad line that is too far in favor of the popular team. I mentioned the Lakers and the Yankees.

Therefore betting against public teams like these would have a tendency to win on an overall basis. Thanks for reminding me of that.

 

[acw]

That is because the books know that the public will bet on a bad line that is too far in favor of the popular team. I mentioned the Lakers
What?!?!?!?!?
Look at mine and your posts regarding the Lakers:
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?q=Y&a=tpc&s=100090022&f=8183022525&m=1113047007&p=2
acw:

The Lakers won 3 championships in a row so no,
To me seems a bit contradictionary.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I can see how that might seem contradictory. However, when I mentioned the Lakers not being overestimated, I can only think that I was referring to the teams in competition with them for the playoffs and not the linesmakers.

Thanks for allowing me to clear that up.

 

[Blutarsky]

DO your research on non public teams, and the least popular NFL. I feel a Oklahoma Texas game will be close to what the original linemaker had. While a middle Tennesseee St vs La Tech might not get the same attention. possibly producing a soft line.
I can already feel it. I'm gonna lose my shirt this fall.

 

[cfbguy]

make your own lines and youll know the line flaws right away. dont bet the high profile tv games as most accurate lines are on those premiere games.the soft lines can be found in the sun belt or the wac and mtn west. EVERYBODY wants action on the huge games and your playing into the books hands.