Experiment of teams with high yards per rush

[BigGamesOnly]

Here is a summary of the teams I have been studying that have a high yards per rush. I have 2 general groups with which I will be providing more analysis later.

1.) Teams with high yards per rush (over 4.5) that are playing teams that give up high yards per rush and are favored by less than 7 or are slight underdogs.

2.) Teams with high yards per rush that underdogs of more than 15 points.

Here are the teams grouped by category:
1.)
South Carolina -6.5 v. Kentucky
Kansas +6 at Colorado
Navy +6 at Vanderbilt
Air Force -7 v. UNLV

2.)
Conn +16 at NC State
Syracuse +18.5 at Va. Tech
Tulsa +23 at Boise St.
Ark. St. +25 at Ole Miss

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Here are my preliminary thoughts on the some of the games mentioned previously. Keep in mind that statistics don't tell the whole story. I'm just bringing up these points to see if they are worth discussing.

South Carolina v. Kentucky
SC has an offense fit for a defense like Kentucky. SC gains 4.5 ypr, Kentucky gives up 4.1 ypr. SC gains 378 yds./game, Kentucky gives up 377 yds./game. Kentucky is not an offensive powerhouse either. Kentucky has beaten some creampuffs while losing to other tougher opponents.
South Carolina -7.5 over Kentucky

Kansas v. Colorado
Kansas' offense gains 4.9 ypr while Colorado's defense gives up 4.1 ypr. Colorado's strength is through the air averaging 300 yds/game. However, Kansas has a decent pass defense only allowing 190 yds./game. Kansas actually gains more yardage through the air. This should be another advantage for the Jayhawks as Colorado gives up 300 yds./game.
Kansas +6.5 at Colorado

Ark. State at Ole Miss
Ark. State averages 5.1 ypr while Ole Miss gives up 2.8 ypr. which is respectable. However, Ole Miss is favored by 25 points here. Ole Miss could score a few points through the air as they are a good passing team with 325 yds./game. Ark. State gives up an average 210 yds./game. The question here is not who is better but can Ark. State run the ball enough to keep Ole Miss from scoring 25 more points to cover the spread? Ole Miss is in a sandwich game coming off a win against Florida looking to a game against Alabama next week.
Ark. State +25 at Mississippi

 

[jimmymo]

I like your thinking on the Miss/Ark St. game -- personally, I think that Ole Miss is in a huge letdown situation and Ark St. may come in and give them a run for a quarter or more.

I am not sure I love taking a side in this game, but if

(1) Ole Miss comes out flat and can't get it clickin on offense from teh outset, and

(2) ASU can put together a couple of possessions where they pick up first downs running the ball...

this one is going to stay way UNDER the posted total of 59 1/2....Even if Ole Miss gets hot early, they are going to call off the dogs and rest their athletes for 'Bama next week...

Miss 35 Ark St. 10

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Excellent point about the under jimmymo. We have a team that runs well against a team that could be resting their starters in the 2nd half. Those 59 1/2 points seem awfully high especially when compared to an Oregon/Arizona State total of 57 points for 2 passing teams.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

The line dropped on the ASU/Ole Miss total from 59 1/2 to 58 today.

 

[jimmymo]

Hadn't seen that -- bought a small one at 59 1/2 and was waiting to add more thinking that this one was under the radar....oh well but I still think it has value (not sure if I will play it more though).

GL