exbookies playoff round two thread

[datdude22]

Ace could you PM me as well as to how to get onto the email list. Thanks BOL this weekend.

 

[colbyjacks]

Is there a 411 play this weekend?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Is there a 411 play this weekend?

no 411 this weekend

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace could you PM me as well as to how to get onto the email list. Thanks BOL this weekend.

you dont have PM set up

hit my name ace-ace...than look at files...you will see a email to talk

 

[potraker]

Ace, I'm looking to get your plays as well for the rest of the playoffs. Can I get on your email list? It looks like I can't PM you right now.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, I'm looking to get your plays as well for the rest of the playoffs. Can I get on your email list? It looks like I can't PM you right now.

hit my name ace-ace...than look at files...you will see a email to talk

 

[ACE-ACE]

$800.00 -105 Take #110 Denver (-9.5) over Baltimore (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 12)
This is my Game of the Week and I am going with the Broncos. This is a big emotional letdown for the Ravens. They had Ray Lewis' final home game last week and they won a big one over Indianapolis. I think it is going to be hard for them to get back up to that emotional level this week in Mile High. Peyton Manning has owned the Ravens in his career. And he has had a lot of success against this defense. I think he will again here. Denver has been the best team in football over the last two months. They are doing a great job and they will have a big advantage being at home in this game. I am laying the points and I think that this one will be a blowout just like the 34-17 win the Broncos earned in Baltimore earlier this year.

 

[YankeesRule]

All over it good luck today

 

[ACE-ACE]

$600.00 -110 Take #111 Green Bay (+3) over San Francisco (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 12)

$800.00 -110 Take Green Bay Total Points 'Over' 20.5
I really like Green Bay to win this game. I think that they will be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense. Green Bay has already played the Niners once and they have revenge in this game. I think it will be hard for San Francisco to beat a team like the Packers twice in one season. If the Packers are going to win this game I think they are going to score at least three touchdowns. And even if they lose this game I think it will be a shootout rather than a defensive game. The Packers have only been held below 21 points twice this year. I don't think it happens here. I think Green Bay is the better team and they have a big advantage with their quarterback. This team has won a Super Bowl recently and they were the best team in the NFC last year. I think they are undervalued. They will get the road win here.

 

[ACE-ACE]

1-2 on the week so far with two more plays -$700


Ace

 

[Gumbi]

What Sharps are Betting in the NFL Playoffs Saturday and Sunday


It’s been an interesting week in Las Vegas because sharp betting has largely been overshadowed by what sharps might be waiting to bet after square money hits the board. We have three games that are sitting a half point away from a critical number as we go to press, and another that’s been sitting right on three, the most critical number of all. Let’s go game-by-game through the weekend NFL playoff schedule to see what the lack of early sharp action means about each game.
Taking the matchups in schedule order…

BALTIMORE at DENVER
Opening Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 45.5
Current Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 46.5
If sharps liked Denver here, the line would have moved to the key number of 10 immediately. The public is likely to support Peyton Manning and the rested home favorite at altitude once they start betting heavily this weekend. Any sharp who wanted the Broncos would have jumped in at the 9.5 now in advance of that action. You have to bet Denver -9.5 if you know -10 or higher is likely in the near future. That DIDN’T happen, which tells you that most sharps prefer Baltimore in a highly priced playoff game, and are waiting to see if they can get +10 or better before kickoff.
Now, it could turn out that the public doesn’t come in heavily on the Broncos because they’re scared off by the high line (less likely given the incredible number of favorites who have covered recent playoff and bowl games), or because the game’s relatively early start (first matchup of the weekend) keeps the overall handle lower than it might otherwise be. And, maybe sportsbooks are okay with being one-sided in the game, and would rather root for Baltimore +9.5 against the public then bring the 10 into play for sharps. Sharps aren’t guaranteed to see a 10. Those preferring Baltimore may have a choice to make before kickoff if there isn’t a move.
What we’re sure of now is that sharps aren’t in love with Denver, or that line would have moved quickly to the key number.
The total has seen support to the Over. Manning gets respect at home for his ability to point points on the board. Baltimore didn’t play an Over game last week vs, Indianapolis, but the game had Over yardage and ball movement. The math guys got an Over in their gradings here at 45.5 and 46.

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Opening Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 45
Current Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 44.5
You regulars know how big the number three is in the NFL…and that it takes a lot of money to move a game off the three. Well, that’s magnified even more in a playoff game because the betting totals are even greater. Sportsbooks would prefer not to give SF fans a shot at the 49ers -2.5, or Packers fans a shot at +3.5.
Sharp and early square money have largely been coming in on the underdog here. You could tell that when many stores lifted the juice on the underdog. Instead of Green Bay +3 at 11/10, some places made you pay 12/10. And, late Thursday afternoon, we saw the first experimental moves to San Francisco -2.5 with -120 to take the favorite. Oddsmakers experimenting with this move had their fingers on the trigger to go back to three if heavy action on the Niners dictated that. This is something we may have to watch all weekend. That’s because:
*Even though SF is the favorite, the public generally supports Green Bay with enthusiasm
*Even though SF had a bye, it’s Green Bay who has the much more battled tested quarterback
We may end up with a tug of war between the 2.5 and the three. We may find that 2.5 is what comes closest to balancing the books because of public support for Green Bay. Watch this line carefully in the hours leading up to kickoff Saturday Night.
Sharps who bet totals showed slight interest in the Under. We hear that’s out of respect for San Francisco’s defense that will be even fresher after the bye week. Sources also tell us that sharps who like San Francisco’s defense but don’t trust the quarterback prefer to invest in SF’s defense by taking the Under rather than laying the points.

SEATTLE at ATLANTA
Opening Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 44.5
Current Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 46
Moving to Sunday now, we start with a game that’s hung under the key number of three in Las Vegas virtually the whole time it’s been posted (outside of a few outlier openers that had the Falcons at three initially). What’s interesting is that many offshore places have gone to the three in anticipation of square money betting the #1 seed at home off a bye as a cheap favorite.
Seattle did suffer a major injury to its defense, and that has influenced sentiment here according to our sources. Sharps who had loved Seattle to go the distance in the NFC brackets have backed off that just a bit. Sharps who loved Seattle to win outright in Atlanta are now down to seeing them as a value play rather than a big bet.
So, if you like Atlanta, you’d better act quick! If you like Seattle, you may be able to find an out before kickoff that will let you grab the full field goal.
The total is up 1.5 points because of Seattle’s defensive injury, and because of the team’s tendency to open things up more away from home this year. The offense has put up some good numbers in recent weeks, and the defense was more mortal away from the Pacific Northwest.

HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Opening Line: New England by 9, total of 49
Current Line: New England by 9.5, total of 47.5
This game has a lot in common with Baltimore/Denver, so it’s a fitting bookend to the weekend. This line didn’t make it to the key number of 10. There was some initial support for New England at -9. We hear that some of that was position-taking from market players in anticipation of public money over the Pats before the last kickoff of the week. Though, there are some sharps who believe New England matches up very well here, and will create a near replay of the regular season meeting from a few weeks ago.
The stronger dynamic is that sharps are waiting to see if they can get underdog Houston at +10 or better. Sharps have respected this Texans team when healthy this year and last year. Those who prefer betting on the better defense also believe they have a big edge here. We should also note that sharps who have been fading New England in recent postseasons have made A LOT of money!
The total has dropped 1.5 points because Houston tends to play grinder games, because New England may focus more on running clock if they get a lead than they do during the regular season, and because there’s a chance for rain in the current forecast.
Summing up the weekend: Sharps are looking at all four dogs, particularly if they can get Baltimore and Houston in the AFC at +10 or better, and if they can get Seattle at +3. Sharps and the public alike may be clustered on Green Bay. Squares will probably be on favorites Denver, Atlanta, and New England. The totals guys like the Overs in Denver and Atlanta, but the Unders in San Francisco and New England. Those are all relatively light opinions from what we’re hearing, or there would have been more line movement.

Thank you for sharing and I appreciate all the information you give us, but shouldn't the title of this article be "What Sharps are THINKING in the NFL Playoffs Saturday and Sunday" This article never tells us what they are betting, but what they are thinking of betting. Also, who are the sharps that are betting these? Are there any names associated with this or is it just the "general" sharps?

 

[bestzone85]

early please

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thank you for sharing and I appreciate all the information you give us, but shouldn't the title of this article be "What Sharps are THINKING in the NFL Playoffs Saturday and Sunday" This article never tells us what they are betting, but what they are thinking of betting. Also, who are the sharps that are betting these? Are there any names associated with this or is it just the "general" sharps?

sharp are the ones that see the edge...key is when the public is 60% on one side and there more money on the other side. (you need more than one book to tell you where the money is.

couple guy I follow (wanting to know what they are on) they bet $20k a game.....if they win...and they do in the long run...those are true Sharps

 

[MotorCityMadman]

All in. On vacation in Mexico for 2 month.

 

[dtmad]

If you win, do they pay you or shoot you?

 

[ACE-ACE]

$500.00 -105 Take #113 Seattle (+2.5) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 13)
I like the Seahawks to get the upset in this one. I think that the line tells the whole story. Atlanta is not even a three-point favorite for being the home favorite. That tells me the oddsmakers think the Seahawks are the better team. I think they are the better team. Atlanta has not won a playoff game with Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. I think that is a big weight over this team. They have been blown out in the playoffs the last two years. If they fall behind in this game I think that all the bad memories of that and the booing from the fans will get to this team. Atlanta did not play as strong of a schedule as the Seahawks this year. Seattle's defense has shut down some of the best offenses in football. I don't think that Atlanta's defense is going to be able to slow down Seattle's rushing attack and they won't stop hot Russell Wilson. Seattle will put the upset.

 

[ACE-ACE]

All in. On vacation in Mexico for 2 month.

is that in pesos or usa $$$ ?

where are you in Mexico....cabo I like the most

 

[Gumbi]

sharp are the ones that see the edge...key is when the public is 60% on one side and there more money on the other side. (you need more than one book to tell you where the money is.

couple guy I follow (wanting to know what they are on) they bet $20k a game.....if they win...and they do in the long run...those are true Sharps

I know what sharps are, but what sharps are giving this information? It just seems like a general writeup that never tells us what they are actually betting, only what they are thinking of betting. Is the person who writes this article a sharp or someone who knows a lot of them? Don't get me wrong, I love the article as it helps with my insight into the games, but it is unclear what sharps are giving this information. THanks for all your help! Good luck the rest of the playoffs!

 

[ACE-ACE]

I know what sharps are, but what sharps are giving this information? It just seems like a general writeup that never tells us what they are actually betting, only what they are thinking of betting. Is the person who writes this article a sharp or someone who knows a lot of them? Don't get me wrong, I love the article as it helps with my insight into the games, but it is unclear what sharps are giving this information. THanks for all your help! Good luck the rest of the playoffs!

the guy lives in Las Vegas...not sure who he is using.

 

[DukeSnider]

If a sharp gives his name he is automatically disqualified as being a sharp....