I'm leaning towards Pittsburgh. The best 2 units on Sunday, in my opinion, will be Green Bay's offense & Pitt's Defense. The extra time before the game usually hurts a good passing team (timing) and helps a good defense (players getting healthy & more time to prepare). Just a lean right now though, I will be waiting to see what some others have to say.
A true Steeler fan...........
A man had 50 yard line tickets for the Steeler's playoff game. As he sits down, a man comes down and asks if anyone is sitting in the seat next to him.
"No," he says, "The seat is empty."
"This is incredible," said the man. "Who in their right mind would have a seat like this for a Steeler's playoff game, and not use it?"
"Well, actually, the seat belongs to me. I was supposed to come with my wife, but she passed away. This is the first Steelers game we haven't been to together since we got married in 1967."
"Oh, I'm sorry to hear that. That's terrible. But couldn't you find someone else -- a friend or relative, or even a neighbor to take the seat?"
The man shakes his head. "No, they're all at the funeral."
Go Steelers!
A man had 50 yard line tickets for the Steeler's playoff game. As he sits down, a man comes down and asks if anyone is sitting in the seat next to him.
"No," he says, "The seat is empty."
"This is incredible," said the man. "Who in their right mind would have a seat like this for a Steeler's playoff game, and not use it?"
"Well, actually, the seat belongs to me. I was supposed to come with my wife, but she passed away. This is the first Steelers game we haven't been to together since we got married in 1967."
"Oh, I'm sorry to hear that. That's terrible. But couldn't you find someone else -- a friend or relative, or even a neighbor to take the seat?"
The man shakes his head. "No, they're all at the funeral."
Go Steelers!
WHAT VEGAS SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT SUNDAY'S SUPER BOWL
It's been just a shade under two weeks since the Super Bowl lines went up. Because the public doesn't usually bet until Super Bowl weekend (when they come to Las Vegas or Reno to party!), the action we've seen so far on the boards represent sharp action (money from professional wagerers).
The indications are very clear. What I'm about to describe may be a bit confusing to some of you. It's important to remember in a game like this that they're not complete agreement. It's not like ALL Wise Guys like one team, and ALL Wise Guys think the same way about the total. There are different opinions, but sharps always find away to give themselves the best number.
In short:
It's been just a shade under two weeks since the Super Bowl lines went up. Because the public doesn't usually bet until Super Bowl weekend (when they come to Las Vegas or Reno to party!), the action we've seen so far on the boards represent sharp action (money from professional wagerers).
The indications are very clear. What I'm about to describe may be a bit confusing to some of you. It's important to remember in a game like this that they're not complete agreement. It's not like ALL Wise Guys like one team, and ALL Wise Guys think the same way about the total. There are different opinions, but sharps always find away to give themselves the best number.
In short:
- Sharps who like Green Bay have bet the Packers at -2.5. That line has been available for a long time. They don't expect to see -2 or better (though there are some stragglers who may be waiting for the deuce).
- Sharps who like Pittsburgh have bet the Steelers +3. That number comes and goes, and sharps jump in when they see it.
- There are more sharps in my view who like Pittsburgh rather than Green Bay. They're impressed with Pittsburgh's defense. They're impressed with Ben Roethlisberger's big game toughness. They think experience matters in the postseason, and this is the third recent Super Bowl visit for the Steelers. They'd also rather have the AFC champion than the NFC champion.
- Sharps AREN'T betting Pittsburgh on the moneyline much because they don't consider it a fair return. Historically, pointspreads are stacked against favorites (though not so much here) and moneylines are stacked against underdogs because squares (the public) like betting on upsets (especially if they're a big fan of that team). Sharps who like Pittsburgh are taking the points.
- Sharps who like the Over have bet Over 44.
- Sharps who like the Under bet Under 46 when it was available right after the lines went up. There was initial interest in the Over, but then Under bettors who love these defenses stepped in aggressively at that time.
- My take is that a lot more sharps like the Under than the Over. There are "history" guys who just bet Overs in the Super Bowl in general because that was a sound strategy for so long. My discussions with the pure handicappers suggest they like the Under, and they think the bad weather in Dallas during preparation week may help that because it's been such a distraction.
people have come over to watch the game...must posted now
back later
my plays
$700.00 Pittsburgh (+125) over Green Bay (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 6)
AND
$400.00 Take 'Over' 44.5 Pittsburgh at Green Bay (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 6)
This side play is part of my System.
I am going with the Steelers in this one. I think that they are by far the better team and that they are going to win this one and win it big. This team doesn't have any bad losses this year, only falling to Baltimore without Big Ben, at New Orleans, against rival New England and against the Jets. Those are four of the best teams in football. Green Bay was the No. 6 seed in the playoffs and they almost didn't make the postseason. They are definitely a hot team right now but they remind me a bit of the Arizona team that Pittsburgh beat the last time they were in the Super Bowl. That Arizona team was a low seed that got hot at the right time (blowing out the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the road, if you remember) but then lost to the Steelers. I think that a big advantage in this game is that Pittsburgh is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last six years and all of the players are used to the distractions. Green Bay is full of guys playing in their first Super Bowl and I think it is going to be harder for them to get off to a fast start. Instead, I think Pittsburgh will get up early and then keep the pressure on all game. I don't think Green Bay's offensive line will hold up here and I think that Pittsburgh is just too much for the upstart Packers. Take Pittsburgh here on the moneyline because they will win this one outright.
My Super Bowl Prop Wagers:
$100.00 Take Greg Jennings 'Over' 5.0 Receptions (-135)
If the Packers win the Super Bowl it will be because their best players have big games and play up to their potential. Jennings is certainly one of their best players. And if the Packers don't win this Super Bowl that means they will likely be playing catch-up in the second half and throwing the ball a ton. Either way I expect Jennings to be targeted frequently and to get at least the five catches. Jennings had eight catches against both Atlanta and Chicago in Green Bay's last two playoff games. And going back to the regular season he has had at least five receptions in 10 of his last 14 games. Jennings also had eight catches in Green Bay's Wild Card loss last year and six catches in the Divisional Round in 2007. That means he has had five or more catches in four of six playoff games in his career. Look for Aaron Rodgers to go to his best wideout early and often and for this bet to come through.
$100.00 Take Pittsburgh To Win First Half AND Win Game (+235)
As I said before, I like the Steelers and I like them to win in a blowout. I think that their experience on this big stage is a big advantage and I think that it is going to help them jump out to an early lead.
$200.00 Will any QB win the Super Bowl MVP: YES (-160)
The two best players on the field are the quarterbacks and QB's have won over half of the Super Bowl MVP awards.
$300.00 What will happen first for Green Bay, score or punt: PUNT (-145)
The Pittsburgh defense is the best defense in football. I do not think that the Packers are going to come out and put up points on their first drive. That means I think they will either turn the ball over (see my next prop) or they will have to punt the ball. I think they have to punt and I expect a slow start by both offenses against two very talented defenses and I think we'll see several punts in the first quarter.
$200.00 Who will throw the first interception: AARON RODGERS (-125)
I think that Rodgers will end up having nearly twice as many passing attempts as Ben Roethlisberger and that means twice as many chances to throw an interception. Big Ben does a good job of not making mistakes and not turning the ball over in the air. I think that will be the case here.
$200.00 Will the largest lead be over 13.5 points: YES (-135)
I think that the Steelers will get up big in this game. If you go back and look at their last nine games they have won eight of them. In those eight wins they were up by two touchdowns or more in five of them. I think they are the better team and I think that if their defense shuts down the Green Bay passing game and the Steelers get a big 'W'. They may let Green Bay get into the game later but I thin kthey will be up 17 or 20 points at some time in this game.
See you next season!
Ace-Ace
back later
my plays
$700.00 Pittsburgh (+125) over Green Bay (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 6)
AND
$400.00 Take 'Over' 44.5 Pittsburgh at Green Bay (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 6)
This side play is part of my System.
I am going with the Steelers in this one. I think that they are by far the better team and that they are going to win this one and win it big. This team doesn't have any bad losses this year, only falling to Baltimore without Big Ben, at New Orleans, against rival New England and against the Jets. Those are four of the best teams in football. Green Bay was the No. 6 seed in the playoffs and they almost didn't make the postseason. They are definitely a hot team right now but they remind me a bit of the Arizona team that Pittsburgh beat the last time they were in the Super Bowl. That Arizona team was a low seed that got hot at the right time (blowing out the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the road, if you remember) but then lost to the Steelers. I think that a big advantage in this game is that Pittsburgh is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last six years and all of the players are used to the distractions. Green Bay is full of guys playing in their first Super Bowl and I think it is going to be harder for them to get off to a fast start. Instead, I think Pittsburgh will get up early and then keep the pressure on all game. I don't think Green Bay's offensive line will hold up here and I think that Pittsburgh is just too much for the upstart Packers. Take Pittsburgh here on the moneyline because they will win this one outright.
My Super Bowl Prop Wagers:
$100.00 Take Greg Jennings 'Over' 5.0 Receptions (-135)
If the Packers win the Super Bowl it will be because their best players have big games and play up to their potential. Jennings is certainly one of their best players. And if the Packers don't win this Super Bowl that means they will likely be playing catch-up in the second half and throwing the ball a ton. Either way I expect Jennings to be targeted frequently and to get at least the five catches. Jennings had eight catches against both Atlanta and Chicago in Green Bay's last two playoff games. And going back to the regular season he has had at least five receptions in 10 of his last 14 games. Jennings also had eight catches in Green Bay's Wild Card loss last year and six catches in the Divisional Round in 2007. That means he has had five or more catches in four of six playoff games in his career. Look for Aaron Rodgers to go to his best wideout early and often and for this bet to come through.
$100.00 Take Pittsburgh To Win First Half AND Win Game (+235)
As I said before, I like the Steelers and I like them to win in a blowout. I think that their experience on this big stage is a big advantage and I think that it is going to help them jump out to an early lead.
$200.00 Will any QB win the Super Bowl MVP: YES (-160)
The two best players on the field are the quarterbacks and QB's have won over half of the Super Bowl MVP awards.
$300.00 What will happen first for Green Bay, score or punt: PUNT (-145)
The Pittsburgh defense is the best defense in football. I do not think that the Packers are going to come out and put up points on their first drive. That means I think they will either turn the ball over (see my next prop) or they will have to punt the ball. I think they have to punt and I expect a slow start by both offenses against two very talented defenses and I think we'll see several punts in the first quarter.
$200.00 Who will throw the first interception: AARON RODGERS (-125)
I think that Rodgers will end up having nearly twice as many passing attempts as Ben Roethlisberger and that means twice as many chances to throw an interception. Big Ben does a good job of not making mistakes and not turning the ball over in the air. I think that will be the case here.
$200.00 Will the largest lead be over 13.5 points: YES (-135)
I think that the Steelers will get up big in this game. If you go back and look at their last nine games they have won eight of them. In those eight wins they were up by two touchdowns or more in five of them. I think they are the better team and I think that if their defense shuts down the Green Bay passing game and the Steelers get a big 'W'. They may let Green Bay get into the game later but I thin kthey will be up 17 or 20 points at some time in this game.
See you next season!
Ace-Ace
