EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week4

[ACE-ACE]

Bankroll $75k
now $74,540

Inv. record 2-4 -$4400.00
action 9-3 +$3940.00
TOTAL 11-7 -$460.00

So many ways to help others....making an impact isn't all about grand gestures..


Sports betting tip #7 - Bet at the Right Time
The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early. Squares usually bet later in the day (or week, for football) and they tend to pick the favorites. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the Pros are laying heavy money on the points. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.


There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books. Many people don't have the time to study things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, Historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. If this is your situation, there is help available to you.

THIS WEEK two of my system kick in.....two games early has been spoted.

i will show you myline value this week.

more to come

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

Here what the line look like before the start of week1
this week and week5
ENJOY. LINEMOVEMENT AT ITS BEST

Week 4




New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-1.5), Thursday




Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)




Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)




Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)




Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-1)




Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-5)




Detroit Lions (-1) at New York Jets




Miami Dolphins (-5) at Oakland Raiders




Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-10)




Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Minnesota Vikings




Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-6)




New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (PK)




New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-1), Monday




Week 5




Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-10), Thursday




Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-7.5)




Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)




Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)




Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars




Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3)




Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)




St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)




Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5)




Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)




Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-9)




Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco (-7)




New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-4)




Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-4)




Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at Washington Redskins, Monday

 

[ACE-ACE]

STATS VS ATS

HOME 21
AWAY 27

DOG 23
FAV 25

OV 24
UN 24

POINTS THAT MATTER 6 out of 48 games 12.5%. Low for this time of the year


MYLINE NUMBERS WITH A VALUE OF +6 or more

RARE...NOT ONE GAME

SOME VALUE GAMES
KC -1. Value of +5
DAL -2
PHI -1. Best one +5.5. And the only one that will count in the record for MYLINE
JAX +9.5

time to do your home work

ACE

 

[pyramid]

POINTS THAT MATTER 6 out of 48 games 12.5%. Low for this time of the year

Hi Ace,

my records show for points that matter,
this is what I have in my log

Week 1-Pitt won no cover, NY Jets won no cover, Denver won no cover, Arizona won no cover

Week 2- Denver won no cover, Green Bay won no cover

Week 3-Eagles won no cover, Patriots won no cover

8 out of 48 games for 16.66 %

if you can confirm this or not let me know if I am wrong I will need to correct it, nothing worse than having wrong information for your research.

Thx

 

[ACE-ACE]

POINTS THAT MATTER 6 out of 48 games 12.5%. Low for this time of the year

Hi Ace,

my records show for points that matter,
this is what I have in my log

Week 1-Pitt won no cover, NY Jets won no cover, Denver won no cover, Arizona won no cover

Week 2- Denver won no cover, Green Bay won no cover

Week 3-Eagles won no cover, Patriots won no cover

8 out of 48 games for 16.66 %

if you can confirm this or not let me know if I am wrong I will need to correct it, nothing worse than having wrong information for your research.

Thx

thanks...i miss one. It's 7 out of 48 games. I did not count week 1. NYJ VS oak game... I base all games on Friday line movement up on sat/day and Sunday don't count. It was -4.5 until Sunday think it when to -5. Which would mean 8 out of 48 games.....I have never done it base on the final number...by you can if you want.

most players that bet NYJ WON that game

miss phi in week 3

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

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[ACE-ACE]

PlayBook
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CKO
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[pyramid]

Ace,

do you have the start date for the Thurday Night Football only?

Thx

 

[Willye]

Thanks fo the newsletters you got the inside the press nfl and college from steele

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace,

do you have the start date for the Thurday Night Football only?

Thx

You mean the time it's at 8:25. Or when Thursday night football started years ago?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thanks fo the newsletters you got the inside the press nfl and college from steele

I don't but this guy does Link. http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=12&p=10727321#post10727321
Posted 288

 

[pyramid]

You mean the time it's at 8:25. Or when Thursday night football started years ago?

sorry, the year Thursday night football started, I used to have that info but its been lost I think was around 20??

 

[ACE-ACE]

November 23, 2006
Thursday Night Football, First episode date

 

[Hotpizza]

If posted in the wrong thread, please accept my apologies in advance. I know at one point in time there was a thread that explained how to use your formula. Not your 99 System but the regular one. I haven't been able to locate that thread and I am asking if you can post it again or point me to where it is now.

Also due to rule changes etc, is the original system still a good one to use or did you tweak it some.

Thanks for what you do in trying to help the players.

 

[ACE-ACE]

If posted in the wrong thread, please accept my apologies in advance. I know at one point in time there was a thread that explained how to use your formula. Not your 99 System but the regular one. I haven't been able to locate that thread and I am asking if you can post it again or point me to where it is now.

Also due to rule changes etc, is the original system still a good one to use or did you tweak it some.

Thanks for what you do in trying to help the players.

Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!
It's right under this thread...start with the 1st posted.......it is a tool that point to a game with value that I been using for 20 years
im keep record to show how it doing this year.....this is the 1st week of myline.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Let’s review what’s happened so far to see which team is more likely to make a ran at a Wildcard behind prohibitive NFC East favorite Philadelphia (who’s off to a 3-0 start).





Won-Lost Records (Strength of Schedule)


NY Giants: 1-2 (lost at Detroit, lost to Arizona, beat Houston)


Washington: 1-2 (lost at Houston, beat Jax, lost at Philadelphia)


Washington can be confident because they’ve played much better with Kirk Cousins than they had with the injured RGIII. Washington crushed the Jaguars, then hung very tough on the road with Philadelphia last week. To this point, the Redskins are at least playing at “.500 caliber” with Cousins, even though the record doesn’t show it. The Giants really struggled to execute in their two losses to Detroit and Arizona. And, the win over Houston was partially polluted by the fact that Texans were in a horrible travel sequence. Houston had to play in Oakland the prior week on the other side of the country, and were in a letdown spot after a 2-0 start. What turned out to be an easy Giants victory may have only proven that New York can beat flat, jet-lagged visitors! Washington will be neither flat nor jet-lagged Thursday Night.





Yards-Per-Play


NY Giants: 4.9 on offense, 5.9 on defense


Washington: 6.1 on offense, 5.0 on defense


Wow…HUGE difference there! These teams so even when you look at the won-lost records. Clearly, Washington has been doing the much better job on both sides of the field. The offense is more than a yard-per-play better, and the defense is almost there too. Now, Washington has had the easier schedule because Jacksonville was in the mix. But, that’s not as big a factor as you might think. Washington beat potent Philly last week 6.7 to 5.7 in yards-per-play. The giants lost the stat 6.6 to 5.9 even though they won the game.





Turnover Differential


NY Giants: -3


Washington: even


The Giants have been extremely turnover prone trying to adjust to this new offense. You have to assume that those problems will continue on the road against a fired up defense that’s played surprisingly well this year. Maybe the pressure will start getting to Kirk Cousins with expectations being so high for this game. That could lead to sloppy performances for both offenses. But, based only on recent form in these schematics…bit edges so far for the home team.





Market Performance


NY Giants: 1-2 ATS


Washington: 2-1 ATS (2-0 in games played mostly by Cousins)


The market overestimated Griffin and underestimated Cousins. It’s hard to know for sure if the Giants are closer to being pegged correctly because Houston was such a no-show last week. If New York “found” itself last week, then they could offer good value going forward. If that was a one-time fluke as the kinks continue to get worked out, then the trends you see above could continue for awhile.





Current Line: Washington by 3.5, total of 44.5





That’s not a line that makes sense based on the math we’ve seen so far. That doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Informed bettors could be correct that Washington has played over its head with Cousins…and there may be an assessment that Eli Manning now has things figured out. What that line is telling you, since home field advantage by itself is worth three points, is that the market doesn’t see much difference between these teams right now. Handicappers must determine if that’s a fair representation or not.

 

[ACE-ACE]

HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING THURSDAY FOOTBALL




NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (Thursday-NFL): Sharps were apparently impressed by the Giants last week against Houston because the Wise Guys have come in early on the underdog. An opener of Washington -4.5 is down to -3.5. Sharps saw no need to wait for the public to possibly drive the line higher in a prime time TV game. Sharps were apparently afraid other sharps were going to take out the number four! That happened once everyone came in. We are hearing that some Washington money would come in at -3. But, sportsbooks are very hesitant to go there because a lot of square money would come in at that price, setting up a headache if the game lands on 3 or 4.


The opening Over/Under of 44.5 has been bet up to 45.5 and 46. That at least suggests good weather! Washington has played high scoring football with Kirk Cousins on the field. We may have a situation here where “Washington money” was betting the Over rather than the team, as 45 is a relatively common number on totals. So, “Giants money” bet +4.5 and +4, while “Redskins money” bet Over 44.5 and Over 45.

 

[ACE-ACE]

$2100.00 +100 Take #102 Washington (-3.5) over NYG (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 25)




$600.00 -110 Take First Half #102 Washington (-2.5) over NYG (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 25)

best to all

Ace

 

[slapshot]

Go get em today ACE

Good Luck

 

[ACE-ACE]

Go get em today ACE

Good Luck

Thanks....two key plays today will tell....