[h=1]Market Report: What Sharps are Betting in NFL Week Seven[/h]TENNESSEE AT BUFFALO: This will not be a high action game this Sunday, with limited TV coverage and fan interest. Sharps haven’t stepped forward either. The opener of Buffalo -3.5 is largely still out there, so some stores have dropped down to a field goal with favorite vigorish. If you like Tennessee, shop for the hook. If you like Buffalo, try to find the key number. Sharps aren’t high on either of these teams right now…and would be most likely to invest in them only as medium or large underdogs against overrated favorites. Not much interest in the total. If we don’t mention the total in a game, it’s because sharps haven’t shown a meaningful preference.
ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA: Minnesota moved from an opener of -5.5 up to -6 on the confirmation that Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb would be out for several weeks. John Skelton will return to the position for a Cardinals’ offense that’s been consistently bad all season. It’s worth noting that a decent-sized underdog isn’t getting support amidst a season where underdogs are on fire against the spread. Sharps want underdogs who can score points.
CLEVELAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: Cleveland falls into that category (an underdog scoring points) based on what we’ve seen the past few weeks. And, they did get support from sharps at the opening line of +3 against the Colts. We’re now seeing Indy -2.5 in most places. That will put Cleveland in the two-team teaser window where you can move them across the 3 and the 7 for +8.5. Sharps who liked Cleveland at +3 will really like them at +8.5 in teasers. Note that this line move suggests that the market in composite now thinks Cleveland is a better team than Indianapolis. Home field by itself is worth three points in the NFL.
BALITMORE AT HOUSTON: Houston jumped from an opener of -4.5 to -6.5 because of all the bad injury news for the Ravens. It doesn’t hurt that we have a Super Bowl contender playing at home after a home loss. But, we’re hearing from sharps that this was largely an anti-Baltimore move based on the depleted defense. Note that the line didn’t move all the way to a full touchdown. We’re hearing that sharps would come in on the dog at +7 if the public pushes Houston to that key number.
GREEN BAY AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest in this game, as Green Bay -5.5 has stayed solid all week. Green Bay did look great Sunday Night in Houston, but hasn’t played at a high enough level consistently this season to drive the line toward a full touchdown. St. Louis has offered value…but this is the first time in a few weeks that Sam Bradford is matched up against a top notch opposing quarterback. It’s one thing to hang tough with Arizona and Miami. Sharps aren’t nibbling, and would probably fade any game day line moves caused by the public.
DALLAS AT CAROLINA: Dallas opened at -2, and we’re seeing either -2 or -2.5 in most stores right now. That puts another underdog in the teaser window…which means many sharps will be pairing Cleveland with Carolina at +8.5 in two-teamers. The condensed league is limiting the number of favorites who will be in teasers because so few games are landing in the 7.5, 8, and 8.5 range. If you like playing basic strategy teasers…get ready to manage a kennel. The total is up a point from 44.5 to 45.5…one of the few totals moves worth mentioning on the Sunday card. That’s a bigger move than it seems because 45 is a strike number for a game near 3-points on the line (24-21). The money drove the line not just to 45, but past it.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: Oddsmakers opened the Giants as favorites of -6.5…kind of daring bettors to jump in on the hosts at less than a key number. Sharps didn’t bite, and…in fact…bet the Redskins. We’re now seeing Washington +5.5. Generally speaking…if you see an opener of 6.5…oddsmakers expect sharps to be on the dog and squares to be on the favorite. Oddsmakers were right about that in general terms, but are probably wishing now they had opened a tick lower than they did. The lack of totals interest so far suggests that weather isn’t going to be much of a factor this weekend. We would have seen Under money in outdoor sites if rain or wind was in the mid-range forecasts.
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Probably a tug-of-war spot where sharps will be on Tampa Bay +3, while the public will be on New Orleans at -2.5. We’re hearing from a few sharps who thought this line should be more like one or two based on how the season has played out. The public loves betting on Drew Brees at cheap prices. So, we’ll have that tug of war around the critical number…and Tampa Bay will join the list of underdogs in basic strategy teasers. Again, if sharps like a dog at +3, they really like that dog in teasers at +8.5 based on the percentages.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: New England opened at -11, which struck a lot of people as high given the rivalry status of this matchup, and the fact that good defenses have been able to hang with the Patriots in Foxboro in recent seasons. The Jets won a playoff game on this field a couple of years back. Sharps hit the dog, so we’re seeing +10 now in most places. Not big passion for the Jets, but enough to drive the opener down to a key number. All the old school guys who bet all double digit dogs on principal were also involved quickly here.
JACKSONVILLE AT OAKLAND: This game has garnered a lot of discussion, but not a lot of action. Oakland opened at -4 even though many ratings systems had them better than one point superior to the Jags on a neutral field. Jacksonville is coming off a bye week…while Oakland is a dicey favorite. Sharps left the game alone. Squares are deciding whether or not they want to trust an inconsistent favorite at a price that came lower than they expected. The total is up a point from 42.5 to 43.5. We’re hearing that’s from the math guys who think Oakland’s general tendencies of poor defense but a decent offense will determine the flow of the game.
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINATI: Pittsburgh opened at -1.5 and has stayed there. This puts Cincinnati on the dog-teaser list because the six-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7. It’s hard to justify a Pittsburgh bet at this price because the team has played so poorly on the road this year. If you can’t beat Tennessee on the road, how can you lay points in Cincinnati?! But, the Bengals have been a disappointment too. Sharps will focus on teasers, and will fade any public move on game day. This strikes them as the right price based on what we’re hearing (and, “right prices” make teasers even stronger because those six points offer important value).
DETROIT AT CHICAGO: This has become an interesting game because many stat methodologies actually have Chicago as a Super Bowl team right now. A few prominent publications currently rank the Bears as #1 in the NFL, even with that dismal showing in Green Bay earlier this season. Is Chicago really that good? An opener of Bears -6 showed them respect. Some sharps (the math guys) have laid that number to drive the line to -6.5 in some locales. We know of a few syndicates that would take the Lions at +7 were the public to drive the number any higher before Monday Night’s kickoff. Note that Chicago becomes an EXTREME “public” team in their best years because of the national fan base…and the fact that many in the Las Vegas media have roots in Chicago. If the Bears do impress Monday, they may become overpriced very quickly because of a public groundswell.
ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA: Minnesota moved from an opener of -5.5 up to -6 on the confirmation that Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb would be out for several weeks. John Skelton will return to the position for a Cardinals’ offense that’s been consistently bad all season. It’s worth noting that a decent-sized underdog isn’t getting support amidst a season where underdogs are on fire against the spread. Sharps want underdogs who can score points.
CLEVELAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: Cleveland falls into that category (an underdog scoring points) based on what we’ve seen the past few weeks. And, they did get support from sharps at the opening line of +3 against the Colts. We’re now seeing Indy -2.5 in most places. That will put Cleveland in the two-team teaser window where you can move them across the 3 and the 7 for +8.5. Sharps who liked Cleveland at +3 will really like them at +8.5 in teasers. Note that this line move suggests that the market in composite now thinks Cleveland is a better team than Indianapolis. Home field by itself is worth three points in the NFL.
BALITMORE AT HOUSTON: Houston jumped from an opener of -4.5 to -6.5 because of all the bad injury news for the Ravens. It doesn’t hurt that we have a Super Bowl contender playing at home after a home loss. But, we’re hearing from sharps that this was largely an anti-Baltimore move based on the depleted defense. Note that the line didn’t move all the way to a full touchdown. We’re hearing that sharps would come in on the dog at +7 if the public pushes Houston to that key number.
GREEN BAY AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest in this game, as Green Bay -5.5 has stayed solid all week. Green Bay did look great Sunday Night in Houston, but hasn’t played at a high enough level consistently this season to drive the line toward a full touchdown. St. Louis has offered value…but this is the first time in a few weeks that Sam Bradford is matched up against a top notch opposing quarterback. It’s one thing to hang tough with Arizona and Miami. Sharps aren’t nibbling, and would probably fade any game day line moves caused by the public.
DALLAS AT CAROLINA: Dallas opened at -2, and we’re seeing either -2 or -2.5 in most stores right now. That puts another underdog in the teaser window…which means many sharps will be pairing Cleveland with Carolina at +8.5 in two-teamers. The condensed league is limiting the number of favorites who will be in teasers because so few games are landing in the 7.5, 8, and 8.5 range. If you like playing basic strategy teasers…get ready to manage a kennel. The total is up a point from 44.5 to 45.5…one of the few totals moves worth mentioning on the Sunday card. That’s a bigger move than it seems because 45 is a strike number for a game near 3-points on the line (24-21). The money drove the line not just to 45, but past it.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: Oddsmakers opened the Giants as favorites of -6.5…kind of daring bettors to jump in on the hosts at less than a key number. Sharps didn’t bite, and…in fact…bet the Redskins. We’re now seeing Washington +5.5. Generally speaking…if you see an opener of 6.5…oddsmakers expect sharps to be on the dog and squares to be on the favorite. Oddsmakers were right about that in general terms, but are probably wishing now they had opened a tick lower than they did. The lack of totals interest so far suggests that weather isn’t going to be much of a factor this weekend. We would have seen Under money in outdoor sites if rain or wind was in the mid-range forecasts.
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Probably a tug-of-war spot where sharps will be on Tampa Bay +3, while the public will be on New Orleans at -2.5. We’re hearing from a few sharps who thought this line should be more like one or two based on how the season has played out. The public loves betting on Drew Brees at cheap prices. So, we’ll have that tug of war around the critical number…and Tampa Bay will join the list of underdogs in basic strategy teasers. Again, if sharps like a dog at +3, they really like that dog in teasers at +8.5 based on the percentages.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: New England opened at -11, which struck a lot of people as high given the rivalry status of this matchup, and the fact that good defenses have been able to hang with the Patriots in Foxboro in recent seasons. The Jets won a playoff game on this field a couple of years back. Sharps hit the dog, so we’re seeing +10 now in most places. Not big passion for the Jets, but enough to drive the opener down to a key number. All the old school guys who bet all double digit dogs on principal were also involved quickly here.
JACKSONVILLE AT OAKLAND: This game has garnered a lot of discussion, but not a lot of action. Oakland opened at -4 even though many ratings systems had them better than one point superior to the Jags on a neutral field. Jacksonville is coming off a bye week…while Oakland is a dicey favorite. Sharps left the game alone. Squares are deciding whether or not they want to trust an inconsistent favorite at a price that came lower than they expected. The total is up a point from 42.5 to 43.5. We’re hearing that’s from the math guys who think Oakland’s general tendencies of poor defense but a decent offense will determine the flow of the game.
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINATI: Pittsburgh opened at -1.5 and has stayed there. This puts Cincinnati on the dog-teaser list because the six-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7. It’s hard to justify a Pittsburgh bet at this price because the team has played so poorly on the road this year. If you can’t beat Tennessee on the road, how can you lay points in Cincinnati?! But, the Bengals have been a disappointment too. Sharps will focus on teasers, and will fade any public move on game day. This strikes them as the right price based on what we’re hearing (and, “right prices” make teasers even stronger because those six points offer important value).
DETROIT AT CHICAGO: This has become an interesting game because many stat methodologies actually have Chicago as a Super Bowl team right now. A few prominent publications currently rank the Bears as #1 in the NFL, even with that dismal showing in Green Bay earlier this season. Is Chicago really that good? An opener of Bears -6 showed them respect. Some sharps (the math guys) have laid that number to drive the line to -6.5 in some locales. We know of a few syndicates that would take the Lions at +7 were the public to drive the number any higher before Monday Night’s kickoff. Note that Chicago becomes an EXTREME “public” team in their best years because of the national fan base…and the fact that many in the Las Vegas media have roots in Chicago. If the Bears do impress Monday, they may become overpriced very quickly because of a public groundswell.
Newsletters Week 7...I like the write ups...tells you something about a game that you may not know...another view
hope this works
enjoy Ace hit the links below
Nellys green sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?23uzc7twzx3ccro
WinningPoints
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?l16d9z49q7h9lhq
PowerPlays
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?8niag11u1neruct
PowerSweep
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?sshqirz7vzljdnz
SportsReporter
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?3h1sn3bjjccd1ho
ProFootballWeekly
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?ls9krz0r8d3ekip
PlayBook
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?g2y9pzinmfd4b2g
Football betting sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?d1zt45x06nre0wr
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?sr5owtg1b102wcn
GS
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?eza9dso27r37nov
pointwise
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?vroy4z23ycimh9z
RedSheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?25b1vvvhvrvbc5a
Midweek alert
http://www.playbook.com/2012MidweekAlert5.pdf
wiseguys
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?16271dus28ulc19
statfox nfl
http://static.drf.com/statfox/banners/PlatinumSheets/2012-13_PlatinumSheet8_SPORTINGNEWS_NFL.pdf
hope this works
enjoy Ace hit the links below
Nellys green sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?23uzc7twzx3ccro
WinningPoints
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?l16d9z49q7h9lhq
PowerPlays
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?8niag11u1neruct
PowerSweep
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?sshqirz7vzljdnz
SportsReporter
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?3h1sn3bjjccd1ho
ProFootballWeekly
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?ls9krz0r8d3ekip
PlayBook
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?g2y9pzinmfd4b2g
Football betting sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?d1zt45x06nre0wr
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?sr5owtg1b102wcn
GS
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?eza9dso27r37nov
pointwise
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?vroy4z23ycimh9z
RedSheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?25b1vvvhvrvbc5a
Midweek alert
http://www.playbook.com/2012MidweekAlert5.pdf
wiseguys
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?16271dus28ulc19
statfox nfl
http://static.drf.com/statfox/banners/PlatinumSheets/2012-13_PlatinumSheet8_SPORTINGNEWS_NFL.pdf
two of my plays is in the top 10 public plays....I call it the best of them!!!
[h=3]Top NFL Public Bets[/h]
[h=3]Top NFL Public Bets[/h]
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you can sign up in this thread http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=918373 you will see my plays for the next 7 weeks
or sign up at docsports i'm allen eastman
or get on my email list....PM me
Ace
$2000.00 -105 Take #425 Dallas (-2.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
This is my NFL 411 System.
Dallas came up just short in Baltimore last week. But they could have won that game. And I think that they will find things easier in Carolina this week. The Cowboys have to win this game. They are falling further behind the Eagles and Giants and even the Redskins in the NFC East. These Dallas players know that last place is unacceptable to owner Jerry Jones. Carolina is coming off a bye week. But this team has struggled all season long. They are battling injury issues and quarterback Cam Newton has not played well. This Carolina team is just 9-23 in its last 32 games over the last three years. The Cowboys have the No. 6 offense and the No. 2 defense in the NFL. They are the much better team in this game and it will show. I think Dallas will have a strong performance here. Take the Cowboys to get the job done.
$500.00 -110 Take #430 Tampa Bay (+2.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
I like Tampa Bay here. This team took care of business last week against Kansas City. They also have a nice home win over Carolina and Washington needed a last-second field goal to beat them at home. I do not think that New Orleans did much during the bye week. They do not have a coach so I don't think they were able to take advantage of an extra week to prepare. I think that Jon Vilma's return is going to be a distraction for this team. I think that this will be a high scoring game. But I think that the home team is going to be able to do enough on defense to get the outright win. Take Tampa Bay here.
$500.00 -105 Take #424 St. Louis (+5.5) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
The public is all over Green Bay! The Packers blew out Houston last Sunday night. Too many people are looking at that game and forgetting about the Packers struggles on the road already this year. This team lost at Seattle as a road favorite and lost at Indianapolis as a road favorite. St. Louis has covered all but one of their games this year. Jeff Fisher has this team believing in itself. The Rams are very tough at home as they showed in their big win over Arizona. I am going to bet against the public in this one. Take the home underdog.
$800.00 -115 Take #416 Buffalo (-3) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
The Bills earned a tough win in Arizona last week. I think that gives this team momentum. They have not been healthy all season. But right now they have both of their running backs carrying the load. The Bills were a team that a lot of people were high on coming into this year. I think that this is the chance to show it. Buffalo blew out Kansas City at home. They were beating New England 21-7 in the third quarter in Orchard Park. They always get a boost from the home crowd. Tennessee is off a comeback win over Pittsburgh on Thursday football. I don't think that they will be as inspired here. And they will struggle again on the road. When the Titans have lost this year it has been by a blowout I think that is what is going to happen in this one.
This is my NFL 411 System.
Dallas came up just short in Baltimore last week. But they could have won that game. And I think that they will find things easier in Carolina this week. The Cowboys have to win this game. They are falling further behind the Eagles and Giants and even the Redskins in the NFC East. These Dallas players know that last place is unacceptable to owner Jerry Jones. Carolina is coming off a bye week. But this team has struggled all season long. They are battling injury issues and quarterback Cam Newton has not played well. This Carolina team is just 9-23 in its last 32 games over the last three years. The Cowboys have the No. 6 offense and the No. 2 defense in the NFL. They are the much better team in this game and it will show. I think Dallas will have a strong performance here. Take the Cowboys to get the job done.
$500.00 -110 Take #430 Tampa Bay (+2.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
I like Tampa Bay here. This team took care of business last week against Kansas City. They also have a nice home win over Carolina and Washington needed a last-second field goal to beat them at home. I do not think that New Orleans did much during the bye week. They do not have a coach so I don't think they were able to take advantage of an extra week to prepare. I think that Jon Vilma's return is going to be a distraction for this team. I think that this will be a high scoring game. But I think that the home team is going to be able to do enough on defense to get the outright win. Take Tampa Bay here.
$500.00 -105 Take #424 St. Louis (+5.5) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
The public is all over Green Bay! The Packers blew out Houston last Sunday night. Too many people are looking at that game and forgetting about the Packers struggles on the road already this year. This team lost at Seattle as a road favorite and lost at Indianapolis as a road favorite. St. Louis has covered all but one of their games this year. Jeff Fisher has this team believing in itself. The Rams are very tough at home as they showed in their big win over Arizona. I am going to bet against the public in this one. Take the home underdog.
$800.00 -115 Take #416 Buffalo (-3) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
The Bills earned a tough win in Arizona last week. I think that gives this team momentum. They have not been healthy all season. But right now they have both of their running backs carrying the load. The Bills were a team that a lot of people were high on coming into this year. I think that this is the chance to show it. Buffalo blew out Kansas City at home. They were beating New England 21-7 in the third quarter in Orchard Park. They always get a boost from the home crowd. Tennessee is off a comeback win over Pittsburgh on Thursday football. I don't think that they will be as inspired here. And they will struggle again on the road. When the Titans have lost this year it has been by a blowout I think that is what is going to happen in this one.
$600.00 -106 Take #434 Oakland (-4) over Jacksonville (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
AND
$2000.00+100 Take 'Under' 43.5 Jacksonville at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
This is going to be a tough game between two run-first teams. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week but they have to travel across country. Last week the Raiders travelled across country and played a very tough game against Atlanta. I think that this Raiders team is heading in the right direction. They have a strong running game and they have a big advantage with their veteran quarterback here. The 'under' is 3-1 in Jacksonville's last four games and they are really struggling to score points. They have only scored over 20 points one time in the last month. The 'under' is 4-2 in Oakland's last six games and they have only scored over 21 points one time this whole year. Both teams struggle to move the ball. But the home team will dominate this game. I think that the home team gets this one 24-10 and I plan on cashing both tickets
AND
$2000.00+100 Take 'Under' 43.5 Jacksonville at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
This is going to be a tough game between two run-first teams. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week but they have to travel across country. Last week the Raiders travelled across country and played a very tough game against Atlanta. I think that this Raiders team is heading in the right direction. They have a strong running game and they have a big advantage with their veteran quarterback here. The 'under' is 3-1 in Jacksonville's last four games and they are really struggling to score points. They have only scored over 20 points one time in the last month. The 'under' is 4-2 in Oakland's last six games and they have only scored over 21 points one time this whole year. Both teams struggle to move the ball. But the home team will dominate this game. I think that the home team gets this one 24-10 and I plan on cashing both tickets
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