NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report
My, we are stubborn.
When it comes to things we believe about the NFL, we stick to the script. After all, we wrote the script, and we know our stuff. We’ll tweak it if we have to.
What we really should do is burn it.
Of course I’m talking about the Eagles, the same Eagles who added six Pro Bowlers in the offseason, became Super Bowl co-favorites, and laid points no matter how badly they performed -- or whom they were playing.
Hand the defense to a buddy who hadn’t coached defense since the 1980s? No problem.
Handle the ball like a hot potato? No worries. Treat run defense as an afterthought? It’s all good.
With nearly one-third of the season done, however, reality is overtaking the hype.
The mistake-prone Eagles, who drew the cash again as 3-point favorites in Buffalo, might not be favored Sunday for the first time. Caesars Palace opened their Week 6 game at Washington as a Pick-em. Other books list the ‘Skins as 1-point favorites.
Philly is 0-4 straight up and against the spread since beating hapless St. Louis.
“This is a team whose line value has been inflated because of that perception [that it is super-talented],” Todd Fuhrman, Caesar’s race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “What we’ve seen the last few weeks doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Turnovers continue to mount, and they just can’t stop the run.”
So why not make them a field-goal dog against a 3-1 home team coming off a bye?
“They’re still a public team, so you can’t adjust the line too much,” Fuhrman said. “And this is essentially their last stand.”
The Eagles remind Fuhrman of last year’s Miami Heat, who were way overvalued at the start of the season.
“The difference is the Heat had 82 games to get things right,” Fuhrman said. “In the NFL a slow start seals your fate.”
Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky said Philly remains a “difficult assessment.”
“For all their faults, the Eagles are +38 in first downs and +468 in yards over their opponents, among the best in each category,” he told ***********. “So the bettors can see their potential, and will likely continue to look to them to find it. All the while there were serious mental mistakes Sunday that had nothing to do with bad bounces, and indicate that their poor start may be getting in their heads. They may not have the maturity to stay the course.”
The Las Vegas-based Sports Club recommended the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites. Founder Pete Korner had Washington as a 1-point favorite, but his fellow oddsmakers all had Philly.
“People do bet ‘em – that’s why we recommended them as the favorite,” Korner told ***********. “Something is not clicking there, but the perception is still that they’re very good and they’re going to break out in a big way. They have a lot of talent and they still attract money.”
BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK
St. Louis at Green Bay (-14.5, 48), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)
The Rams could get even more points by kickoff. They’re so feeble offensively (11.5 ppg), thanks to injuries and “boy genius” coordinator Josh McDaniels.
“The focus has gotta always be on playing our best in November and December,” McDaniels curiously told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It’s still October last time we checked.
Beat writer Jim Thomas noted the Rams sometimes struggle “just to get lined up right and get the ball snapped.”
SMALLEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia at Washington (-1, 48)
The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in division games since the start of last season. Washington made less splashier offseason additions – G Chris Chester, DLs Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, DBs Josh Wilson and O.J. Atogwe -- but they’re paying off.
BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Dallas at New England (-7, 54)
These teams haven’t played since 2007, when they combined for 75 points in a 48-27 Pats win.
New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 straight regular-season games, posting an 11-2 O/U mark. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are on a 15-2 O/U tear dating to last year.
You won’t see a worse matchup of secondaries all season.
SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7, 39.5), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)
All four of these teams put up at least 20 points Sunday.
Curtis Painter has great chemistry with Pierre Garcon, and rookie A.J. Green is showing why he was the first wideout drafted.
Under coach Mike Tomlin, the over is 16-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s division games.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 6
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Sunday, October 16
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ST LOUIS (0 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-85 ATS (-34.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-116 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 143-104 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 1) at DETROIT (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 0-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA (1 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO (4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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HOUSTON (3 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (1 - 4) at CHICAGO (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, October 17
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MIAMI (0 - 4) at NY JETS (2 - 3) - 10/17/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 6
Sunday, 10/16/2011
ST LOUIS at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 2-13 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play last game
GREEN BAY: 9-1 ATS off 3 straight wins
JACKSONVILLE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 5-14 ATS off ATS loss
PITTSBURGH: 19-8 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Over in conference road games
WASHINGTON: 6-12 ATS at home vs. Philadelphia
SAN FRANCISCO at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-28 ATS Away off win by 14+
DETROIT: n/a
CAROLINA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 6-0 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game
ATLANTA: 14-29 ATS in 2nd of BB home games
INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 7-0 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
CINCINNATI: 0-9 ATS as home favorite
BUFFALO at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 1-4 ATS vs. NY Giants
NY GIANTS: 0-7 ATS if allowing 400+ yds last game
HOUSTON at BALTIMORE, 4:05 PM ET
HOUSTON: 15-31 ATS Away off home game
BALTIMORE: 18-7 ATS at home after scoring 30+
CLEVELAND at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 19-8 Over Away off BB Home games
OAKLAND: 13-27 ATS off SU dog win
DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 12-1 Over after 1st month of season
NEW ENGLAND: 18-4 Over in all games
NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 Under off 2 straight road wins
TAMPA BAY: 0-8 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less
MINNESOTA at CHICAGO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
MINNESOTA: 8-2 Over in wks 5 through 9
CHICAGO: n/a
Monday, 10/17/2011
MIAMI at NY JETS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
MIAMI: 11-24 ATS vs. Jets
NY JETS: 14-5 Over vs. conference
Trend Report
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Sunday, October 16
1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. GREEN BAY
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CINCINNATI
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DETROIT
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games
1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY GIANTS
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
4:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. OAKLAND
Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
4:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Baltimore is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of New England's last 16 games
8:20 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Monday, October 17
8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 6-16-3 ATS in their last 25 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games
NY Jets are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Miami
NFL Spread Sheet: Over and over again
Oddsmakers set the highest NFL totals we’ve ever seen last week, and guess what? Nine of 13 games still went over.
So now they’ve shattered another record. Based on *********** data, this week’s average total is a whopping 46.4.
You can’t blame oddsmakers. They’ve got to do something to slow down the over train that’s cashing at a 63.2 percent clip (48-28-1).
Week 6’s highest total, Cowboys-Pats, opened at 54 and is already 55 at many books. The teams have combined to post 33-8 O/U mark (80.5 percent) since the start of last season.
“It’s getting to the point where you wonder how high you can make it,” Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “Even when we set numbers in the 50s, they’re going over.”
One play in the Jets-Patriots game said it all.
Darrelle Revis and Patriots wideout Deion Branch got their feet tangled late in the first half. Officials flagged Revis for illegal contact. It was a highly questionable call, and it went against the best corner in the game.
In the NFL, offense gets the benefit of the doubt.
Revis wasn’t alone. Refs flagged three other Jets’ defensive backs for illegal contact or pass interference Sunday.
“All those flags just keep extending drives,” Fuhrman said. “How is a defense supposed to stop a high-profile passing attack?”
Especially when stars like Brian Urlacher are flagged for phantom helmet-to-helmet hits (see: Monday night at Detroit). Trying to protect players, the league has boosted scoring even more.
Fuhrman acknowledges that the totals haven’t risen quickly enough.
“There’s just a perception out there that there’s going to be a regression to the mean, that defenses are going to catch up,” he said.
Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky summed up the linesmakers’ quandary.
“The oddsmakers continue to set higher totals each week, but still not enough,” he said. “They want to make sure their lines are simply not out of the ballpark, and that has not been the case: Overs cashed at a 9-2 rate going into the Sunday night game, but of those 11, six finished within a TD of the projection. So they are not too far off, but will have to continue to move them higher.
“Right now we see such hesitancy from the defenses that the notion that they will adjust and get the numbers more back towards normal may be an erroneous hypothesis,” Malinsky added. “Guys who spent their careers playing a certain way just are not adjusting well to the reduced limits on contact.”
Emboldened receivers are averaging 140 yards after contact per game, 25 more than in 2010, according to advancednflstats.com. That’s an increase of 22 percent.
Teamrankings.com has a database that goes back to 1985. The site said Week 5’s average total of 45.3 was the highest ever -- just above the 45.1 average for Week 9 of 2009, and the 45.0 average for Week 3 of 1985.
Vegas oddsmaker Pete Korner said bettors “are playing the way they should be, and they’re winning,” noting the overs have helped many bettors cash parlays and teasers.
But he also added: “We just can’t go from the numbers we’ve had and raise ‘em 10 points. That’s not going to create two-way action. We’re trying to find an area that’s in the middle.”
Even after the Sunday night and Monday night games stayed under, the over is 8-3-1 in prime-time games.
No team epitomizes the over trend more than Buffalo. All five Bills’ games have gone over, and by an average of 11.2 points.
Perhaps that’s why the Bills-Giants game, which opened at 49.5, is already at 50.5 or 51 depending on the book.
All five of Buffalo’s second halves also have gone over.
Maybe in December, brutal cold and swirling winds will do what NFL defenses have not been able to do so far.
HALFTIME BETTING
Other strong second-half trends are emerging.
Jacksonville has not covered any second half this season. Sunday, the Jaguars lost the second half 17-7 as a 3-point home dog to Cincy. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in the second half.
The Lions - who still have not lost a game ATS since Thanksgiving 2010, including preseason - are 5-0 ATS in second-half action. They outscored the Bears 17-3 as 6-point favorites.
Minnesota snapped its 0-4 ATS skid in second-half action on Sunday. The Vikes, getting three points, lost the second half 7-6 to Arizona after building a 28-3 lead.