Exbookie Wants To Help The Players Week 6

[ACE-ACE]

Starting bankroll $75,000

Action plays .............13-15 + $1195.00
Investment...............6-4 + $3775.00

Total........................17-15 +$2520.00

Bankroll now $77,580.00 UP 2.5 UNITS

Been doing my work early this week.within 3 weeks I'm moving and have 40% done!!...with capping at doc...day job...posting here...and moving...I'm doing a lot of time management!!! Iam like to sell my home in this kind of market...this move is one step closer to move to Las Vegas. Moving in with my girlfriend and have been working on a room with 3 tv build into the wall...3 pc one for the line movement...one for doc's and home business and one to be on the rx:thumbsup: and do my homework....so this week I got it under control....next week I'm taking the week off on my day job to get a lot of work done.....I got people!!!! and that helps! so if I dont answer all your ???? as fast as I do....give me time.


PUBLIC

OVER 65% FOR THE YEAR
SIDES 24-19
TOTALS 24-16

BOTH ARE MONEY!

STATS

HOME 35
AWAY 39

DOGS 34
FAV 40

OVER 43
UNDER 31

POINTS THAT MATTER

10 OUT OF 54 GAMES 13.5%




MY LINE VS THE LINE

CHI -2.5..............................................EV

HOU-3..........................................MIA -6

IND-5...........................................BAL-8

MIN-13................................................-9

N.O. -7................................................-2

NYJ-6..................................................-8

WASH-13.5..........................................-10

TB-2.............................................CAR-5

DEN-3.5...............................................EV

PHI-4.5...............................................-5

SEA-2.................................................-1.5

DAL-5.............................................ARI-6.5

SD-6....................................................EV

NYG-7.5................................................-7


MYLINE IS ABOUT THE VALUE BASE ON THE LINE THAT CAME OUT BASE ON 4 STATS THAT I BEEN DOING FOR OVER 15 YEARS...TRY TO LOOK FOR VALUE OF +6 OR MORE.
AS IN DALLAS GAME
DAL IS FAV BY 5...BUT BASE ON THE 4 STATS ARI IS FAV BY 6.5...A VALUE OF 11.5
YOU CAN LOOK AT IT TWO WAY.
IF YOU DO YOUR HOMEWORK AND LIKE DALLAS AND GO AGAINST MY LINE LOWER THE $$$$ OR DONT BET...IT TAKES ME OFF A GAME.
OR

IF YOU LIKE ARI AFTER DOING THE OTHER 50% OF CAPPING (ALL OTHER PARTS)...THAN YOU KNOW IT WILL BE A PLAY..

ITS BETTER WHEN IT GOES OVER A PRIME NUMBER...IF ARI WAS -7.5 THIS WOULD BE A INVESTMENT PLAY FOR SURE!!!


BACK WITH MORE

ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]THE MYTH OF "SPLITTING THE ACTION"[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You've probably heard for years, even decades, that the goal of the oddsmaker is to "split the action" on each game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That means he wants half the money on one side of the betting line, and half on the other side. Since losing bets are charged a 10 percent "vigorish," sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit whenever the money breaks out evenly. The losers pay the winners, and the sportsbooks put 10% in their pockets thank you very much.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It doesn't actually work out that way. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sure, there are some games where the money comes in close to 50/50. Often you'll see the public (referred to as "squares" in Nevada) betting on one side, while professional wagerers (called "sharps") are on the other. What's more common these days is for the sportsbooks to take a position on a game while giving bettors "the worst of it." [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What do I mean by that? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If oddsmakers are confident the public is going to be betting one side very strongly, which is fairly common when you're talking about big name college football teams or the most hyped pro squads, they'll inflate the line a couple of points in that direction. The public isn't betting the "true" line that reflects the actual difference between the teams on the field. They're paying a tax of a couple of points because their betting is so predictable. As a result, squares who still make that bet are laying 11/10 AND a bad number. It's tough enough to beat the 11/10 over time. Doing that against bad numbers will make money for the sportsbooks even if the money doesn't split out evenly. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In some sports though, it's mostly sharp action that's hitting the board. Oddsmakers will try to do the same thing here by studying sharp betting patterns. If they notice that the sharps are hitting an off-the-radar team in college basketball, or maybe Unders with certain NBA teams, they'll adjust that line a couple of points as well. Now the sharps have to decide whether or not they want to lay 11/10 at a line not particularly to their liking. If they do, the sportsbooks figure they're okay because they've charged the tax and have the 11/10 working for them. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let me give you an example that will help you see how powerful this is. I've heard often through the years about "offers" that certain illegal bookies around the country will make to their square clientele. They're so confident the squares will lose with a lot of action, they tell the mark that he can move the line one point in his favor in every game...but he has to bet EVERY game. Now, this ONLY works against real squares! Most guys can win with that kind of edge. Sharps would make a killing. Squares find a way to lose no matter what the proposition is. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now, imagine a book told you that HE would get to move each game a point in whatever direction HE wanted, you still had to lay 11/10, and you had to play every game on the board. That would be horrible for a player. You'd never take that offer in a million years. Imagine it was two points instead of one. Nobody in their right mind would take that offer. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, that's what's going on here to a degree. Sportsbooks realize how the public bets, they're charging them 11/10 on each play, and they're making them lay 1-3 points the worst of it depending on the game. I'm not saying the public plays the board. But, oddsmakers know which games the public will be focused on. That universe is tilted very strongly against the squares. The "squares' board" is a stacked deck.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oddsmakers haven't quite yet realized how to beat the sharps. But, they have slowed down the sharps with this type of approach. That 11/10 vig AND "penalty" points create quite a hurdle for players to clear even if you're talking about an obscure college basketball game or an NBA total.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In baseball, the same thing happens on the moneyline. You saw high prices on the Cubs in their first round National League playoff series against the Dodgers because the public loves betting the Cubs. Squares had to pay a surcharge for the right to bet on Chicago. This past season, when the sharps pounded a young up-and-coming pitcher in his first couple of starts, the line dropped immensely the next time he took the mound. There were several young arms this past summer who were priced like veterans by their third appearance. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As you can see, there's no need for an oddsmaker to sweat how the action breaks down in each game as long as he's put the house in a good position. He knows that things will work out for the sportsbook over a large sampling of games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"Splitting the action" is a myth. That's not the way it happens in the real world. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you want to win when betting college and pro football, you have to be aware of this phenomenon and put it to your advantage. Go against the public teams so you can put the free points in your favor. Don't bet any side or total where you believe the line has been shaded against you. Make your own calculated assessment of what the "true" line should be. Then try to find edges you can exploit. You'll still be dealing with the 11/10. But, you'll have a fighting chance to be on the right side more often than not. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Then the squares will be paying YOU instead of the house![/FONT]

 

[MackDonald]

This is the kind of [real] information that gives a serious player/handicapper a small hedge against the 11/10 and a shot at beating the very dangerous game of sports betting.

Thanks for all you do Ace Ace and good luck.

Mack Donald

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

Love the information. Baltimore was a value of 15 when they opened at +7 :shocked:

 

[jasmine]

Hello Ace, where can I find the team trends and History that you post as Candy? Thanks

 

[shizzle]

interesting info! thanks ace ace

 

[LXAPesci]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]THE MYTH OF "SPLITTING THE ACTION"[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You've probably heard for years, even decades, that the goal of the oddsmaker is to "split the action" on each game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That means he wants half the money on one side of the betting line, and half on the other side. Since losing bets are charged a 10 percent "vigorish," sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit whenever the money breaks out evenly. The losers pay the winners, and the sportsbooks put 10% in their pockets thank you very much.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It doesn't actually work out that way. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sure, there are some games where the money comes in close to 50/50. Often you'll see the public (referred to as "squares" in Nevada) betting on one side, while professional wagerers (called "sharps") are on the other. What's more common these days is for the sportsbooks to take a position on a game while giving bettors "the worst of it." [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What do I mean by that? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If oddsmakers are confident the public is going to be betting one side very strongly, which is fairly common when you're talking about big name college football teams or the most hyped pro squads, they'll inflate the line a couple of points in that direction. The public isn't betting the "true" line that reflects the actual difference between the teams on the field. They're paying a tax of a couple of points because their betting is so predictable. As a result, squares who still make that bet are laying 11/10 AND a bad number. It's tough enough to beat the 11/10 over time. Doing that against bad numbers will make money for the sportsbooks even if the money doesn't split out evenly. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In some sports though, it's mostly sharp action that's hitting the board. Oddsmakers will try to do the same thing here by studying sharp betting patterns. If they notice that the sharps are hitting an off-the-radar team in college basketball, or maybe Unders with certain NBA teams, they'll adjust that line a couple of points as well. Now the sharps have to decide whether or not they want to lay 11/10 at a line not particularly to their liking. If they do, the sportsbooks figure they're okay because they've charged the tax and have the 11/10 working for them. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let me give you an example that will help you see how powerful this is. I've heard often through the years about "offers" that certain illegal bookies around the country will make to their square clientele. They're so confident the squares will lose with a lot of action, they tell the mark that he can move the line one point in his favor in every game...but he has to bet EVERY game. Now, this ONLY works against real squares! Most guys can win with that kind of edge. Sharps would make a killing. Squares find a way to lose no matter what the proposition is. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now, imagine a book told you that HE would get to move each game a point in whatever direction HE wanted, you still had to lay 11/10, and you had to play every game on the board. That would be horrible for a player. You'd never take that offer in a million years. Imagine it was two points instead of one. Nobody in their right mind would take that offer. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, that's what's going on here to a degree. Sportsbooks realize how the public bets, they're charging them 11/10 on each play, and they're making them lay 1-3 points the worst of it depending on the game. I'm not saying the public plays the board. But, oddsmakers know which games the public will be focused on. That universe is tilted very strongly against the squares. The "squares' board" is a stacked deck.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oddsmakers haven't quite yet realized how to beat the sharps. But, they have slowed down the sharps with this type of approach. That 11/10 vig AND "penalty" points create quite a hurdle for players to clear even if you're talking about an obscure college basketball game or an NBA total.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In baseball, the same thing happens on the moneyline. You saw high prices on the Cubs in their first round National League playoff series against the Dodgers because the public loves betting the Cubs. Squares had to pay a surcharge for the right to bet on Chicago. This past season, when the sharps pounded a young up-and-coming pitcher in his first couple of starts, the line dropped immensely the next time he took the mound. There were several young arms this past summer who were priced like veterans by their third appearance. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As you can see, there's no need for an oddsmaker to sweat how the action breaks down in each game as long as he's put the house in a good position. He knows that things will work out for the sportsbook over a large sampling of games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"Splitting the action" is a myth. That's not the way it happens in the real world. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you want to win when betting college and pro football, you have to be aware of this phenomenon and put it to your advantage. Go against the public teams so you can put the free points in your favor. Don't bet any side or total where you believe the line has been shaded against you. Make your own calculated assessment of what the "true" line should be. Then try to find edges you can exploit. You'll still be dealing with the 11/10. But, you'll have a fighting chance to be on the right side more often than not. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Then the squares will be paying YOU instead of the house![/FONT]

Wow...I have been sportsbetting for over 6 years now and I would say in the past 3 months I have started to realize that and all that you have said is real clear. I do not post much but I appreciate the info.

 

[DontTazeMeBro___]

great read ace-ace.. keep it up..

 

[Factor15]

Ace,

Nice article.

 

[dirtymoose]

great read! thanks for all the info!

 

[RJJM94]

I like the Arizona game as well. I have been betting on them all year because I feel that they are undervalued and have been making $$$. Dallas is very overrated but are still explosive. I think I will use this game in a teaser.

 

[CrapGame]

Good post

 

[JackARoot]

POINTS THAT MATTER

10 OUT OF 54 GAMES 13.5%

ACE

Ace, does this indicate that we should be playing the money line for dogs?

 

[crazythien]

ACe,

With the indication of your line VS the LIne
TB-2.............................................CAR-5

is it best to bet on Car +1.5 right now?

 

[Snookslayer]

That was a very interesting article. I had heard the 50/50 split was a myth, but never understood why. Now I get it.

I also learned that Nevada refers to me as a "square". hno:

 

[Coldweather]

Another great year for you my friend. You be hot and on football fire dawg!

Football money.

:toast:(7)

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, does this indicate that we should be playing the money line for dogs?

you tell me

74games

34 was dogs that won by the ats-10 that the points matter

24 games that the dog won out right

my only point is when you look at the game...pick the team that you think will win....small odds ...sure you could bet the money line....ones at are over -7 is on a game to game bases or should I say match-up to match-up bases.

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACe,

With the indication of your line VS the LIne
TB-2.............................................CAR-5

is it best to bet on Car +1.5 right now?

all it is saying is there more value betting Car than TB...its only spots the game...now do all the other parts of capping and find more value it you can...if you do...go for it...if you dont...maybe you should rethink it.

by the way...I did my homework and it will be a play...but trust no one...be the capper you are and make sure it right for you.

its your hard earn money.

AA

 

[SamyFarhaJr]

Hey Ace, here are the predictions for week 6 for over/under with a value of +6 or more. Last week was 3-3.

Cinci +15.44 (Take Under 45 - predicted score 29.56)
Minnesota +12.12 (Take Under 45.5 - predicted score 33.38)
Dallas +11.72 (Take Over 49.5 - predicted score 61.22)
Carolina +10.86 (Take Over 36.5 - predicted score 47.36)
St. Louis +7.6 (Take Under 44 - predicted score 36.4)

 

[thecruncher]

Dang, Sammy, those O/Us match up with mine pretty well. Kind of extreme predicted score numbers, but they're in the right direction for the most part.