Inv 2-0 +$4000.00
Action 4-4 -$670.00
Total 6-4-1 +$3330.00
From my friend East......I could not put it better than he did.
I get so many questions on buying points regarding the NFL. I though this to be an advantageous time to once and for all set the record straight, and the facts will shock you. Buying points is a love/hate scenario for most bettors. The problem is, most don't understand how, when, or why to do it, or not to do it. It always looks better to have +7.5 than 7, or +10.5 vs 10, or visa-versa, -6.5 vs -7, or -9.5 vs -10. Those are death traps that will erode your bankroll. There are a few secrets, and the obvious pivots around the number 3 in the NFL.
THE FIRST SECRET:
You must have multiple outs (an out being a book where you can compare lines and get the most value). Remember for every 0.5 points, your winning percentage increases 1.1%! May not sound like a lot, but trust me, it is huge. You get a 1 point line advantage by having multiple outs on a given game, that is worth 2.2%! If you had a year of 2000 bets in all sports, and hit 52% vs 54% it looks like this for a 100.00 bettor:
52% of 2000 bets at 100.00 ea. (or -110) = 1000 winners = 100,000.00, and 1000 losers @ -110 = -110,000 = (10,000.00)
54% 0f 2000 bets at 100.00 ea (or -110)= 1080 winners = 108,000.00, and 920 losers @ -110 = -101,200 = +6,800.00
HOPE THIS OPENS YOUR EYES! Not having 4 books costs you 16,800.00 a year, as a 100.00 bettor
So your a small player? It costs you 8,400.00 a year as a 50.00 player
So your a tiny player? It costs you 4,200.00 a year as a $25 player, probably more than your bankroll at that size!
Ever wonder why your reloading your account so often?
When you use proper bankroll management the losses are reduced, and the gains expanded, but that is a long chapter!
MOST LOSE BECAUSE THEY HAVE ONE OUT, AND/OR MANAGE BANKROLL IMPROPERLY!
Buying off of +3 PLAYING THE HOME DOG:
ALWAYS BUY +0.5 POINT IN THE NFL IN THIS SITUATION!
Since 1980 games at +3 in the NFL with home dog: 434
Number of times it landed on exactly a push: 40
Percentage of occurrences 40/434 = 9.2%
So that turns 217-217 50% expected outcome to:
257-177 .592
If you did nothing and just went 217-217 50% on 100.00 wager you lose the vig 2177 times = -2,170.00
If you buy to:
-130 +2,690.00
-135 +1805.00
even all the way to -150 you would lose just -850.00 vs -2100.00 doing nothing!
So the rule of thumb is always buy a +3 NFL line to +3.5 ALWAYS!
Something to think about.
Action 4-4 -$670.00
Total 6-4-1 +$3330.00
From my friend East......I could not put it better than he did.
I get so many questions on buying points regarding the NFL. I though this to be an advantageous time to once and for all set the record straight, and the facts will shock you. Buying points is a love/hate scenario for most bettors. The problem is, most don't understand how, when, or why to do it, or not to do it. It always looks better to have +7.5 than 7, or +10.5 vs 10, or visa-versa, -6.5 vs -7, or -9.5 vs -10. Those are death traps that will erode your bankroll. There are a few secrets, and the obvious pivots around the number 3 in the NFL.
THE FIRST SECRET:
You must have multiple outs (an out being a book where you can compare lines and get the most value). Remember for every 0.5 points, your winning percentage increases 1.1%! May not sound like a lot, but trust me, it is huge. You get a 1 point line advantage by having multiple outs on a given game, that is worth 2.2%! If you had a year of 2000 bets in all sports, and hit 52% vs 54% it looks like this for a 100.00 bettor:
52% of 2000 bets at 100.00 ea. (or -110) = 1000 winners = 100,000.00, and 1000 losers @ -110 = -110,000 = (10,000.00)
54% 0f 2000 bets at 100.00 ea (or -110)= 1080 winners = 108,000.00, and 920 losers @ -110 = -101,200 = +6,800.00
HOPE THIS OPENS YOUR EYES! Not having 4 books costs you 16,800.00 a year, as a 100.00 bettor
So your a small player? It costs you 8,400.00 a year as a 50.00 player
So your a tiny player? It costs you 4,200.00 a year as a $25 player, probably more than your bankroll at that size!
Ever wonder why your reloading your account so often?
When you use proper bankroll management the losses are reduced, and the gains expanded, but that is a long chapter!
MOST LOSE BECAUSE THEY HAVE ONE OUT, AND/OR MANAGE BANKROLL IMPROPERLY!
Buying off of +3 PLAYING THE HOME DOG:
ALWAYS BUY +0.5 POINT IN THE NFL IN THIS SITUATION!
Since 1980 games at +3 in the NFL with home dog: 434
Number of times it landed on exactly a push: 40
Percentage of occurrences 40/434 = 9.2%
So that turns 217-217 50% expected outcome to:
257-177 .592
If you did nothing and just went 217-217 50% on 100.00 wager you lose the vig 2177 times = -2,170.00
If you buy to:
-130 +2,690.00
-135 +1805.00
even all the way to -150 you would lose just -850.00 vs -2100.00 doing nothing!
So the rule of thumb is always buy a +3 NFL line to +3.5 ALWAYS!
Something to think about.
