Exbookie wants to help the players week 2

[ACE-ACE]

Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS ITS BASE ON FOUR THING 1..LINE-OFF 2..TIME 3..PENALTIES 4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM LINE-OFF THE DIFF BETWEEN WHAT THE ODDS MAKER GIVE AND WHAT REALLY HAPPENS LET'S TAKE(LAST WEEK GAME BETWEEN GB AND ATL.... THE LINE WAS ATL-9.....WHAT HAPPEN...

www.therx.com

this is the line on how I do myline. one of the tools to find a game

record
2-2………………………………-115.00. Action. 1st two weeks

most year up a little. happy by next week to be 5-4. +500
than the betting starts

any questions …..if you guys have some edges to share for the next week…..put it on here

monday night game Is a pass.



best to all

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

This is what week 2 look like 9 years ago 2016

for the fun of it

• Sep 13, 2016
• Add bookmark
• #1

Bankroll $75,000

INV. 0-0
ACTION 3-2-1 +526.00
TOTAL 3-2-1 +$526.00


SAY IT SLOWLY ......Defense WINS championships

In a QB league. It's not a great QB. That matters most. it's a great Defense.


STATS VS ATS

HOME 7-9

DOGS 10-6

OV 8
UN 8

POINTS THAT MATTER. 3 out of 16 games. 18% of the games.....this will avg 16% over manny years.....last year it was only 14%


the goal of any season is to beat it.....everyone says that the NFL. Is the hardest sport to beat.

Stick around

best to all

Ace-Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

Still do the same stats. Lol.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

What I noticed since on-line betting came in that the opening line is the strongest and correct line. The amount of money pushing the line up or down is wrong. So many people betting and most have no clue. A couple of examples we're Detroit from 2 1/2 to 1, Denver 8 1/2 to 9-10, Colt's 1 1/2 to 1. I am sure there's more. I have no real data for this it's just what I noticed.

 

[ACE-ACE]

What I noticed since on-line betting came in that the opening line is the strongest and correct line. The amount of money pushing the line up or down is wrong. So many people betting and most have no clue. A couple of examples we're Detroit from 2 1/2 to 1, Denver 8 1/2 to 9-10, Colt's 1 1/2 to 1. I am sure there's more. I have no real data for this it's just what I noticed.

Back in the day. You could have $100k of players without a clue betting one side and the line never move….and if a sharp bet the game for 50k it would move a 1/2 points…..i feel now everyone just trying to balance the bets. the whole goal is to balance. 100k on one side and a 100k on the other side makes that book $10k. The day of “take his bet the gambler will lose“. Is now in the pass. That my feeling about it

 

[ACE-ACE]

I had sheets on all the players…..when they called in I bring up there sheet(before PC. Lol ) and if I knew het bet a team every week the line just for him would be 1/2 to 1 point more……those were the days…..had 100 players and 90% lost 5 % would win a little and the same 5% would win all the time

how

set what you want to play for the week and dont add games…….take the best 5 games and stand with them

the golden rule

 

[ACE-ACE]

This what I like to hear from someone that on my email list
I did 2-2….he did 4-0. Put yourself in the game and dont just follow!!!

He said:
Great start!
Thank you.
I’m Going lite the first three weeks, so I got a little lucky and used them all in money line pars.
Used AZ for the survivor pool.

 

[itchyback]

By time you mean time of possession ?

 

[ACE-ACE]

By time you mean time of possession ?

Yes. If one team has 31:25. The other team has 29. That 2:25 different or you can round up or down to make it simple.
that would mean 2 :

 

[itchyback]

I wonder if they have stats on
pos vs neg top

Ex pass 10 yards run out of bounds 10 sec top
Positive
Run no gain take 20 sec off and add 20
Set up next play 40 sec top negative

 

[itchyback]

..

 

[ACE-ACE]

..

-5 Pitt. NYJ +5

 

[ACE-ACE]

System kicks in next week 3……. bets are in early. So. Lock and load. 6 plays this week

one on Thursdays


best to all

Ace

 

[Cheddar]

You say points only matter in 16% of the games. Why do you keep bringing up 1/2-1 point line movements. Why is that important if points only matter in 16% of the games?

 

[ACE-ACE]

You say points only matter in 16% of the games. Why do you keep bringing up 1/2-1 point line movements. Why is that important if points only matter in 16% of the games?

You are right it don’t matter. Last year it was 15%…….we were talking about the Joe public that bet the line 100k and cant move the line in the old days vs the sharp guy that move a line with a 10k bet……..now it’s a business and the line can be move Easy.


when I make my plays all those games should win by 8 or more points or why would one bet them….. been burn on those 1/2 line mover about 15 times in the last 25 year…….in the long run its just one game.

 

[xrao80x]

Well, given the narrow margins of profitability in this racket. I think that 15% or so is an advantage you absolutely have to have., right?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Well, given the narrow margins of profitability in this racket. I think that 15% or so is an advantage you absolutely have to have., right?

Most of those 15% is on 3 1/2 to 3. I dont buy off a number 90% of the time. But 3 getting it down to 2 1/2 could help at times

 

[ACE-ACE]

the lesson for a lifetime ......

A capper hit 70% this year...he the best and beat the other guy...he only did 56%


The measure of success of a sports handicapper is not his percentage of winning bets, but the Relating amount of profit he made over any given period of time.


remember this and keep good records


its a key to know where you are every day...the key is not to live day by day...week by week...its about where you are in the sport you are tracking...alway the goal is to win the sport by $1.00 dollar more than you started with....If I lose 3 weeks in a row...I do make a few adjustment...like bet to big games at the same amount knowing that I cant lose both... you sound like me...keep it organized and know where you are every week...the game I play is to start at "o" each week and beat that week...than...let it go (win or lose) and start again....its like winning little battles....but dont forget the goal to win the war

 

[azbob]

To paraphrase Mike Tyson, "Everyone is a winner until they start posting their plays."

 

[itchyback]

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