Ace give us your thoughts about the line movement of the ravens game. When lines came out on sunday I saw BAL as pick and I immediately took them big. Then the line moved all the way to WASH -3 and now it moves in BAL favor at +2.5. Are they really thinking that WAS defense is any good and that the Ravens are in that big of a disadvantage? Why I have this feeling that it´s time the Redskins lay an egg after winning 3 in a row?
[h=1]What Sharps are Betting in NFL Week 14[/h]There were several NFL games this week sitting right near the key numbers of 3, 7, and 10. Sharps in Las Vegas (professional wagerers) made their preferences known either with early betting, or with early passing that exposed what they were waiting for later in the week once squares (the public) start to bet. Let’s go game-by-game through Sunday’s schedule to see how the sharps are betting Week 14 action.
Note that we’ll only be talking about Over/Unders in games where sharps have moved the opener at least a point.
BALTIMORE AT WASHINGTON: This game opened at pick-em, but was bet up to Washington -2.5 due to last weekend’s action. Baltimore was exposed again as a team that struggles vs. playoff caliber teams. Washington might have established themselves as a playoff caliber team with a Monday Night win over the New York Giants. It’s telling that the line STOPPED at -2.5 rather than going all the way to the key number of -3. We’re hearing that sharps would come in on Baltimore with the full field goal. Sharps aren’t as pessimistic about Robert Griffin III now as they were before the season started. He’s earned his stripes. He just hasn’t earned to right to lay the full three to a playoff team yet. The sharps liked Washington at -2 or less, but would take Baltimore at +3. If the line freezes at 2.5, sharps will be heavily involved with Baltimore +8.5 in two-team teasers because it moves past both the 3 and the 7 with a six-point teaser adjustment.
KANSAS CITY AT CLEVELAND: Sharps made a move on Cleveland here, which is surprising because that’s against their general flow when it comes to non-contenders. Cleveland opened at -5, but is not -6.5. The Browns are not a public team, so this wasn’t a matter of taking a position before square money came in. There was some anti-Chiefs sentiment, but our sources say this was mostly because of Cleveland’s improved play of late. Their win over Pittsburgh looked better after those Steelers with Charlie Batch beat Baltimore. We hear that sharp money would come in on the dog were the line to climb one more half-point all the way to the critical number of seven.
SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH: This line went up very recently because it was only announced Thursday that Ben Roethlisberger was given the go-ahead to play. Oddsmakers posted Pittsburgh -7 to see what the money did. Sharps hit the Steelers right away against the fading Chargers. The line is now -7.5 or -8 as we go to press. That will put the Steelers in the teaser window too…which oddsmakers don’t want to see because the public will love Pittsburgh at full strength against a slumping visitor.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Not much interest in this one. Indy opened at -5.5, and it’s either sat there or shaded down to -5 through the course of the week. Sharp affection for the Colts would have moved the line to at least six in advance of public money on this recent media darling. We’re hearing that sharps prefer the dog, and are waiting to see if they can get +6 or better after square money hits the board. If they have to settle for +5.5 on game day, they will.
NY JETS AT JACKSONVILLE: The Jets opened at -3, but the line was bet down to Jets -2.5. We’ve told you in the past that it usually takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three. That may not be the case here because oddsmakers weren’t sure initially if they were overstating the Jets case at that number. Sharps do prefer the home underdog, because there hasn’t been a buyback toward the key number. And, sharps will really like having the Jags in teasers from what we hear. They don’t trust the Jets’ offense with Mark Sanchez, and want to take advantage of that however they can. Jacksonville is the sharp side in this game. The total is down from 39.5 to 38.5 or 38, one of the few Over/Under tendencies being shown by sharps early. Weather just isn’t a factor this year like it’s been in the past. We’re hearing that sharps believe oddsmakers have had time to hone in on the right totals this deep into the season. Only weather or injury news would create an influx of sharp money.
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 40.5 is down to 39. That’s obviously not weather related in a dome. We here the stat guys are expecting a defensive game similar to the 38-point effort these teams had recently…one where Chicago scored some easy points off turnovers. Chicago -3 has stood pat
ATLANTA AT CAROLINA: Atlanta has opened at -3.5 and stayed there, similar to what we saw when they were hosting the New Orleans Saints recently. If a line opens a half point above a key number (particularly 3!) and doesn’t move, that tells you the favorite is the sharp side. If the Wise Guys wanted Carolina, they would have gladly pounded the dog at the hook because three is such a common final margin. Sharps wanting a dog will wait at many numbers hoping for something better, but NOT at 3.5, 7.5, or 10.5. Sharps don’t trust Cam Newton with Power Ratings suggesting Atlanta -4 or -4.5 is a better number.
PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY: Side and total action here, seemingly keyed by a good Sunday Night outing from quarterback Nick Foles of Philadelphia. Tampa Bay opened at -8.5, but is down to -7.5. The total opened at 45.5 but is now up to 47 or 47.5, with even some early 48’s getting tested. Tampa Bay’s defense is showing signs of fatigue, and sharps now believe Foles can move the ball vs. a mediocre defense. We are hearing that sharp money would come in on Tampa Bay at -7. And, we’re also hearing that Tampa Bay is a popular teaser choice for two-teamers because the move crosses the 3 and the 7. A lot of teaser options this week.
ST. LOUIS AT BUFFALO: Not much interest here. Buffalo opened at -3 and has stayed there. The Rams have impressed the sharps in their recent battles with San Francisco. But, they don’t want to ask the Rams to play well on the road vs. a non-conference team right after an overtime war. Sharps will fade public money if this line moves on game day.
DALLAS AT CINCINNATI: Another game where the line has been sitting on the home team -3 all week. Sharps have really fallen out of favor with the Cowboys recently because of poor home outings vs. Cleveland, Washington, and Philadelphia. They’re not ready to trust the Bengals at this price because the team is so inconsistent from series to series. It will be a pass unless the public moves the line on game day (possible because this is a prominent early TV matchup)…then sharps will fade the public.
MIAMI AT SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers opened at -10.5. Sharps jumped on Miami to bring the line back to the key number. We mentioned earlier that sharps won’t wait on a dog at +3.5, +7.5, or +10.5. They take the hoop quickly if it’s offered on a dog they prefer. The total has been bet down from 40 to 39 in what’s expected to be a defensive struggle.
NEW ORLEANS AT NY GIANTS: Some interest on the NY Giants at the opener of -4.5. We’re now seeing -5 in most places. That’s not near a key number…and there wasn’t enough passion to drive the Giants up to -6. The Saints have extra preparation time in a Thursday vs. Monday situation. That tempered what might have been bigger enthusiasm for the G-Men.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: This line has been frozen solid at Seattle -10 and 35 all week. It’s not expected to be a highly bet game from the public. Seattle might make the playoffs, but they haven’t captured the public’s fancy yet. The East Coast media is more obsessed with Luck and RGIII right now, so Russell Wilson is staying under the radar. Sharps think this game is properly priced, and will only come in to fade public money if any shows up.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The main interest here has been on the total. The opener of 52.5 was bet down to 50.5. We’re hearing that’s because the first meeting was more defensive than had been expected even though it was played indoors. We’re outdoors, at night this time…which could help defenses even if the Winter has been mild so far. The team side looks to be setting up as a tug-of-war with Green Bay -6.5 backers and Detroit +7 backers.
Note that we’ll only be talking about Over/Unders in games where sharps have moved the opener at least a point.
BALTIMORE AT WASHINGTON: This game opened at pick-em, but was bet up to Washington -2.5 due to last weekend’s action. Baltimore was exposed again as a team that struggles vs. playoff caliber teams. Washington might have established themselves as a playoff caliber team with a Monday Night win over the New York Giants. It’s telling that the line STOPPED at -2.5 rather than going all the way to the key number of -3. We’re hearing that sharps would come in on Baltimore with the full field goal. Sharps aren’t as pessimistic about Robert Griffin III now as they were before the season started. He’s earned his stripes. He just hasn’t earned to right to lay the full three to a playoff team yet. The sharps liked Washington at -2 or less, but would take Baltimore at +3. If the line freezes at 2.5, sharps will be heavily involved with Baltimore +8.5 in two-team teasers because it moves past both the 3 and the 7 with a six-point teaser adjustment.
KANSAS CITY AT CLEVELAND: Sharps made a move on Cleveland here, which is surprising because that’s against their general flow when it comes to non-contenders. Cleveland opened at -5, but is not -6.5. The Browns are not a public team, so this wasn’t a matter of taking a position before square money came in. There was some anti-Chiefs sentiment, but our sources say this was mostly because of Cleveland’s improved play of late. Their win over Pittsburgh looked better after those Steelers with Charlie Batch beat Baltimore. We hear that sharp money would come in on the dog were the line to climb one more half-point all the way to the critical number of seven.
SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH: This line went up very recently because it was only announced Thursday that Ben Roethlisberger was given the go-ahead to play. Oddsmakers posted Pittsburgh -7 to see what the money did. Sharps hit the Steelers right away against the fading Chargers. The line is now -7.5 or -8 as we go to press. That will put the Steelers in the teaser window too…which oddsmakers don’t want to see because the public will love Pittsburgh at full strength against a slumping visitor.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Not much interest in this one. Indy opened at -5.5, and it’s either sat there or shaded down to -5 through the course of the week. Sharp affection for the Colts would have moved the line to at least six in advance of public money on this recent media darling. We’re hearing that sharps prefer the dog, and are waiting to see if they can get +6 or better after square money hits the board. If they have to settle for +5.5 on game day, they will.
NY JETS AT JACKSONVILLE: The Jets opened at -3, but the line was bet down to Jets -2.5. We’ve told you in the past that it usually takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three. That may not be the case here because oddsmakers weren’t sure initially if they were overstating the Jets case at that number. Sharps do prefer the home underdog, because there hasn’t been a buyback toward the key number. And, sharps will really like having the Jags in teasers from what we hear. They don’t trust the Jets’ offense with Mark Sanchez, and want to take advantage of that however they can. Jacksonville is the sharp side in this game. The total is down from 39.5 to 38.5 or 38, one of the few Over/Under tendencies being shown by sharps early. Weather just isn’t a factor this year like it’s been in the past. We’re hearing that sharps believe oddsmakers have had time to hone in on the right totals this deep into the season. Only weather or injury news would create an influx of sharp money.
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 40.5 is down to 39. That’s obviously not weather related in a dome. We here the stat guys are expecting a defensive game similar to the 38-point effort these teams had recently…one where Chicago scored some easy points off turnovers. Chicago -3 has stood pat
ATLANTA AT CAROLINA: Atlanta has opened at -3.5 and stayed there, similar to what we saw when they were hosting the New Orleans Saints recently. If a line opens a half point above a key number (particularly 3!) and doesn’t move, that tells you the favorite is the sharp side. If the Wise Guys wanted Carolina, they would have gladly pounded the dog at the hook because three is such a common final margin. Sharps wanting a dog will wait at many numbers hoping for something better, but NOT at 3.5, 7.5, or 10.5. Sharps don’t trust Cam Newton with Power Ratings suggesting Atlanta -4 or -4.5 is a better number.
PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY: Side and total action here, seemingly keyed by a good Sunday Night outing from quarterback Nick Foles of Philadelphia. Tampa Bay opened at -8.5, but is down to -7.5. The total opened at 45.5 but is now up to 47 or 47.5, with even some early 48’s getting tested. Tampa Bay’s defense is showing signs of fatigue, and sharps now believe Foles can move the ball vs. a mediocre defense. We are hearing that sharp money would come in on Tampa Bay at -7. And, we’re also hearing that Tampa Bay is a popular teaser choice for two-teamers because the move crosses the 3 and the 7. A lot of teaser options this week.
ST. LOUIS AT BUFFALO: Not much interest here. Buffalo opened at -3 and has stayed there. The Rams have impressed the sharps in their recent battles with San Francisco. But, they don’t want to ask the Rams to play well on the road vs. a non-conference team right after an overtime war. Sharps will fade public money if this line moves on game day.
DALLAS AT CINCINNATI: Another game where the line has been sitting on the home team -3 all week. Sharps have really fallen out of favor with the Cowboys recently because of poor home outings vs. Cleveland, Washington, and Philadelphia. They’re not ready to trust the Bengals at this price because the team is so inconsistent from series to series. It will be a pass unless the public moves the line on game day (possible because this is a prominent early TV matchup)…then sharps will fade the public.
MIAMI AT SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers opened at -10.5. Sharps jumped on Miami to bring the line back to the key number. We mentioned earlier that sharps won’t wait on a dog at +3.5, +7.5, or +10.5. They take the hoop quickly if it’s offered on a dog they prefer. The total has been bet down from 40 to 39 in what’s expected to be a defensive struggle.
NEW ORLEANS AT NY GIANTS: Some interest on the NY Giants at the opener of -4.5. We’re now seeing -5 in most places. That’s not near a key number…and there wasn’t enough passion to drive the Giants up to -6. The Saints have extra preparation time in a Thursday vs. Monday situation. That tempered what might have been bigger enthusiasm for the G-Men.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: This line has been frozen solid at Seattle -10 and 35 all week. It’s not expected to be a highly bet game from the public. Seattle might make the playoffs, but they haven’t captured the public’s fancy yet. The East Coast media is more obsessed with Luck and RGIII right now, so Russell Wilson is staying under the radar. Sharps think this game is properly priced, and will only come in to fade public money if any shows up.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The main interest here has been on the total. The opener of 52.5 was bet down to 50.5. We’re hearing that’s because the first meeting was more defensive than had been expected even though it was played indoors. We’re outdoors, at night this time…which could help defenses even if the Winter has been mild so far. The team side looks to be setting up as a tug-of-war with Green Bay -6.5 backers and Detroit +7 backers.
This weekend low pressure systems are going to effect ~11 of the 15 games. *Rain or snow expected in:*
Buf
Car
Cin
Cle
Jax
Pit
TB
Wash
NY
Sea
NE
Do you see any of the cities getting weather giving either team an edge? *Any mudders in the field? *Thanx, my friend. *BOL with your plays.
ps.....I'm still doing line off, every week. *Keep it in a notebook. *Invaluable tool.
Buf
Car
Cin
Cle
Jax
Pit
TB
Wash
NY
Sea
NE
Do you see any of the cities getting weather giving either team an edge? *Any mudders in the field? *Thanx, my friend. *BOL with your plays.
ps.....I'm still doing line off, every week. *Keep it in a notebook. *Invaluable tool.
$800.00 -EV Take #117 Atlanta (-3.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
This play is from my NFL 411 System
I really like the Falcons this week. This team is the best in the NFC and one of the best in football. But all season they have not been getting respect from the oddsmakers or from the public. This team has only lost one time this year and I do not think they will lose this one. Carolina has only won three times this year. They lost at Kansas City last week and they have nothing to play for this season. The Falcons have won five straight and seven of eight against the Panthers. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 in this series and they will remember how much trouble that they had with Carolina earlier in the season. But this Falcons team is just playing too good to be off track in this game. Atlanta has had a few extra days to prepare for this game since they played on Thursday night last week. They cashed a ticket for me as part of my NFL 411 System then and I think they are going to get the job done for me again this week. Take the Falcons.
$700.00 -110 Take 'Under' 38.5 New York Jets at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
Both of these teams have quarterback issues. And I don't see a lot of high scoring from either side. The Jets and the Jaguars both want to run the ball and they want to limit how many times their quarterbacks have to throw it. The Jaguars have been held below 20 points in six of their last nine games. The Jets have been held below 20 points in six of their last nine games. The 'Under' is 5-2 in Jacksonville's last seven home games and the 'under' is 12-4-1 in Jacksonville's last 17 games against the AFC. The Jets only managed a touchdown last week in a 7-6 game. I expect another ugly game and this one will be low scoring.
$400.00 -106 Take #112 Indianapolis (-5) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
The Colts are still undervalued. When are people going to realize how good this team and Andrew Luck are? Tennessee was blown out at home by Houston last week and they lost at Jacksonville the week before. The Titans do not have a good coach or a good quarterback and they are at a disadvantage here. The Colts have a lot of momentum. They are riding high after their last-second win last week and this is a team that is making a push for the playoffs. The Titans have had a disappointing year and they have a lot less to play for in this game. The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and the Titans are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
$500.00 -110 Take First Half: #106 Washington (-1) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
The Redskins cashed a 6-Unit ticket for me on Monday night. I am going right back to them here. I think that this team is playing better and better each week. They were able to really control the defending NFL champions last week. And now they are going to control Baltimore. The Ravens have not been a strong road team this year. They have also played two tough games in a row against the Chargers and the Steelers. I think that Baltimore has to be very disappointed by not beating Pittsburgh and really wrapping up the division title last week. I think that disappointment will carry on today. The Ravens are without Terrell Suggs and their defense is going to be hurting. I think the Redskins will get the job done here and will get off to a fast start.
$600.00 Take First Half: #124 Cincinnati (-2.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
The Cowboys have been much better in the second half of games this year then in the first half. They have shown a tendency to fall behind early in games and then try to make big comebacks in the second half. They have done that in each of the last three weeks and they are 0-3 ATS against the halftime line in their last three weeks and 1-6 ATS against the halftime line in their last seven games. They do not get off to fast starts and I don't think they will this week either.
This play is from my NFL 411 System
I really like the Falcons this week. This team is the best in the NFC and one of the best in football. But all season they have not been getting respect from the oddsmakers or from the public. This team has only lost one time this year and I do not think they will lose this one. Carolina has only won three times this year. They lost at Kansas City last week and they have nothing to play for this season. The Falcons have won five straight and seven of eight against the Panthers. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 in this series and they will remember how much trouble that they had with Carolina earlier in the season. But this Falcons team is just playing too good to be off track in this game. Atlanta has had a few extra days to prepare for this game since they played on Thursday night last week. They cashed a ticket for me as part of my NFL 411 System then and I think they are going to get the job done for me again this week. Take the Falcons.
$700.00 -110 Take 'Under' 38.5 New York Jets at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
Both of these teams have quarterback issues. And I don't see a lot of high scoring from either side. The Jets and the Jaguars both want to run the ball and they want to limit how many times their quarterbacks have to throw it. The Jaguars have been held below 20 points in six of their last nine games. The Jets have been held below 20 points in six of their last nine games. The 'Under' is 5-2 in Jacksonville's last seven home games and the 'under' is 12-4-1 in Jacksonville's last 17 games against the AFC. The Jets only managed a touchdown last week in a 7-6 game. I expect another ugly game and this one will be low scoring.
$400.00 -106 Take #112 Indianapolis (-5) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
The Colts are still undervalued. When are people going to realize how good this team and Andrew Luck are? Tennessee was blown out at home by Houston last week and they lost at Jacksonville the week before. The Titans do not have a good coach or a good quarterback and they are at a disadvantage here. The Colts have a lot of momentum. They are riding high after their last-second win last week and this is a team that is making a push for the playoffs. The Titans have had a disappointing year and they have a lot less to play for in this game. The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and the Titans are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
$500.00 -110 Take First Half: #106 Washington (-1) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
The Redskins cashed a 6-Unit ticket for me on Monday night. I am going right back to them here. I think that this team is playing better and better each week. They were able to really control the defending NFL champions last week. And now they are going to control Baltimore. The Ravens have not been a strong road team this year. They have also played two tough games in a row against the Chargers and the Steelers. I think that Baltimore has to be very disappointed by not beating Pittsburgh and really wrapping up the division title last week. I think that disappointment will carry on today. The Ravens are without Terrell Suggs and their defense is going to be hurting. I think the Redskins will get the job done here and will get off to a fast start.
$600.00 Take First Half: #124 Cincinnati (-2.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
The Cowboys have been much better in the second half of games this year then in the first half. They have shown a tendency to fall behind early in games and then try to make big comebacks in the second half. They have done that in each of the last three weeks and they are 0-3 ATS against the halftime line in their last three weeks and 1-6 ATS against the halftime line in their last seven games. They do not get off to fast starts and I don't think they will this week either.
$300.00 Take First Half: #126 San Francisco (-6.5) over Miami (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
This game reminds me a little of the Denver play. San Francisco is clearly much better than Miami. But I don't want to lay the big number for the whole game and have a chance of the underdog getting in the back door. The 49ers have to be very angry after losing in overtime last week to St. Louis. That game really hurts them in the NFC race. Miami could have a letdown after playing their rival Patriots last week. And the long travel is going to hurt this young team. I like the San Fran defense and the running game to come out of the game and set the tempo for this one. I think the 49ers will jump all over the Dolphins just like they did against teams like Chicago and Buffalo this year.
This game reminds me a little of the Denver play. San Francisco is clearly much better than Miami. But I don't want to lay the big number for the whole game and have a chance of the underdog getting in the back door. The 49ers have to be very angry after losing in overtime last week to St. Louis. That game really hurts them in the NFC race. Miami could have a letdown after playing their rival Patriots last week. And the long travel is going to hurt this young team. I like the San Fran defense and the running game to come out of the game and set the tempo for this one. I think the 49ers will jump all over the Dolphins just like they did against teams like Chicago and Buffalo this year.
$400.00 -110 Take #127 New Orleans (+5) over New York Giants (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
The Giants could be on upset alert. The Saints have beaten the Giants badly in the last three meetings. The won 49-24 last year and 48-27 back in 2009. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and New York has lost three of four games. The Giants are not playing well right now. The Saints have to win this game or else their playoff hopes are completely over. The Giants are still in first place of their division and they will not have as much urgency. This spread was at 6.0 on Monday. Then the Giants lost on MNF. The sharps have been all over the Saints and this number has dropped a full point. Some books are even going down to 4.5 right now. I will follow the big money bets this week and I think that the Saints have a great chance to win this game outright. The Saints are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against the NFC.
The Giants could be on upset alert. The Saints have beaten the Giants badly in the last three meetings. The won 49-24 last year and 48-27 back in 2009. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and New York has lost three of four games. The Giants are not playing well right now. The Saints have to win this game or else their playoff hopes are completely over. The Giants are still in first place of their division and they will not have as much urgency. This spread was at 6.0 on Monday. Then the Giants lost on MNF. The sharps have been all over the Saints and this number has dropped a full point. Some books are even going down to 4.5 right now. I will follow the big money bets this week and I think that the Saints have a great chance to win this game outright. The Saints are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against the NFC.
