Investment plays 10-7 +$5775.00
Action plays 27-23-1 +$462.00
Total 37-30-1 +$6237.00
411 system now 11-5 68%
short week for me...been non stop trying to find the picks Best thing I did last week was cut back on some plays....This week looks easy
Trends That Really Work
I am not comfortable referring to the following cases as being "trends." I don't like the word. Nevertheless, for lack of a more definitive term at the moment, let's call them "trends", even though each one has substantial causative evidence backing up the accompanying conclusion.....
1. Last year's Super Bowl winner tends to do poorly against the line early in the new season.
There are apparently several causative reasons why this "trend" continues year after year. The biggest reason is probably the general betting public's tendency to overrate favorites. It is common knowledge that the average bettor overrates last year's Super Bowl winner, therefore linemakers adjust the posted line accordingly, adding points to the pointspread.
A second reason concerns the motivations of the players on both teams. Those players on the team that won the Super Bowl have been World Champions all year long. BY now, they believe it. It would be difficult to describe them as being "hungry." No matter how good their coaches might be at motivational speaking, you can be sure their training camp did not exhibit an all-out effort on the players' part. Going into the new season they expect a victory.
On the other hand, think about the situation in which the players on the other team find themselves. They are getting ready to play the Super Bowl champions. It is self-evident that these players figure to be keyed up for the confrontation. They desire a victory.
We'll take desire over expect any time. Keep in mind, all these guys are professional athletes. They do this for a living. The difference in physical ability between professional sports teams is almost negligible.
Other supportive reasons for this particular "trend" include player replacement due to trades, retirement, etc. It is highly likely that both teams have replaced several players and/or coaches, and such a circumstance tends to equalize any differences in ability.
2. Home teams on Monday Night tend to do better than expected.
This is a very well known "trend" that gets bad-mouthed every year as having run itself out. It hasn't run itself out and it most likely never will.
Those teams featured on ABC's/ESPNs Monday Night Football are those teams that figure to generate the highest televisions ratings. It's all about those ratings. Consequently, when the schedules are made out (early in the year), those teams with the highest national level of popularity are set to play on Monday night, and a high nationwide level of popularity usually results when a team is among the best teams in the league.
Professional football games between two 'good' teams tend to be more predictable than games between 'bad' teams or mediocre teams.....that is to say, they are more predictable from a statistical, objective standpoint, without having to weight so much subjectivity into the equation. Good teams have substantial home field advantages, generally much bigger than the 3-point average home field advantage of the league overall, and that home field advantage is magnified to a great extent by the game being featured nationally on Monday night television.
Way back in the Springtime when the schedule was set somebody was keenly aware of those television ratings, and the very last thing ABC/ESPN wants is a quiet home crowd leaving early or even booing their home team. You can bet that every effort was made to line up a very good home team with an almost-but-quite-as-good visitor.
3. 14-or-higher-point underdogs tend to cover pointspreads.
Occasionally in pro football there is such a lopsided match-up that a 14-or-higher pointspread is posted on the game. Take the points. Here's why:
Make no mistake about it, pro football players know pointspreads on their games as soon as those pointspreads are posted. Fourteen-or-more point favorites, already believing they should win the game, are further bolstered by the bookmakers' opinion. They are quick to believe they will win the game with little effort. They've probably had a very easy week of practice. That includes their coaches. It's easy for coaches to regard the game as a 'gimme' game, and a good time to rest any starting players that need rest, or to audition any new players that need auditioning. The 'hunger' is gone from both the players and the coaches on a team that's such a big favorite. In short, they take the game for granted.
Meanwhile, the 14-point underdog is embarrassed by such a wide discrepancy. Both the coaches and the players on the underdog team figure to have their jaws set and their feet planted. They figure to want very badly to make a game of it. It's altogether different from college ball.
Then in the 4th quarter, even if the favorite is leading by 20+ points, consider the natural consequences of the situation. The favorites will quite naturally tend to 'coast.' They will simply try to run out the clock. No sense pouring it on any further. Starters will sit out, no one will throw themselves on any spears in order to gain a couple more yards.
The underdogs don't figure to coast a tall. It's not the same situation as if they were only 3-point underdogs to begin with. Three-point underdogs getting their butt handed to them often tend to 'give up.' Not 14-point underdogs. You can bet you're going to get full effort from these underdogs for the full 60 minutes.
More to Come
Ace
Action plays 27-23-1 +$462.00
Total 37-30-1 +$6237.00
411 system now 11-5 68%
short week for me...been non stop trying to find the picks Best thing I did last week was cut back on some plays....This week looks easy
Trends That Really Work
I am not comfortable referring to the following cases as being "trends." I don't like the word. Nevertheless, for lack of a more definitive term at the moment, let's call them "trends", even though each one has substantial causative evidence backing up the accompanying conclusion.....
1. Last year's Super Bowl winner tends to do poorly against the line early in the new season.
There are apparently several causative reasons why this "trend" continues year after year. The biggest reason is probably the general betting public's tendency to overrate favorites. It is common knowledge that the average bettor overrates last year's Super Bowl winner, therefore linemakers adjust the posted line accordingly, adding points to the pointspread.
A second reason concerns the motivations of the players on both teams. Those players on the team that won the Super Bowl have been World Champions all year long. BY now, they believe it. It would be difficult to describe them as being "hungry." No matter how good their coaches might be at motivational speaking, you can be sure their training camp did not exhibit an all-out effort on the players' part. Going into the new season they expect a victory.
On the other hand, think about the situation in which the players on the other team find themselves. They are getting ready to play the Super Bowl champions. It is self-evident that these players figure to be keyed up for the confrontation. They desire a victory.
We'll take desire over expect any time. Keep in mind, all these guys are professional athletes. They do this for a living. The difference in physical ability between professional sports teams is almost negligible.
Other supportive reasons for this particular "trend" include player replacement due to trades, retirement, etc. It is highly likely that both teams have replaced several players and/or coaches, and such a circumstance tends to equalize any differences in ability.
2. Home teams on Monday Night tend to do better than expected.
This is a very well known "trend" that gets bad-mouthed every year as having run itself out. It hasn't run itself out and it most likely never will.
Those teams featured on ABC's/ESPNs Monday Night Football are those teams that figure to generate the highest televisions ratings. It's all about those ratings. Consequently, when the schedules are made out (early in the year), those teams with the highest national level of popularity are set to play on Monday night, and a high nationwide level of popularity usually results when a team is among the best teams in the league.
Professional football games between two 'good' teams tend to be more predictable than games between 'bad' teams or mediocre teams.....that is to say, they are more predictable from a statistical, objective standpoint, without having to weight so much subjectivity into the equation. Good teams have substantial home field advantages, generally much bigger than the 3-point average home field advantage of the league overall, and that home field advantage is magnified to a great extent by the game being featured nationally on Monday night television.
Way back in the Springtime when the schedule was set somebody was keenly aware of those television ratings, and the very last thing ABC/ESPN wants is a quiet home crowd leaving early or even booing their home team. You can bet that every effort was made to line up a very good home team with an almost-but-quite-as-good visitor.
3. 14-or-higher-point underdogs tend to cover pointspreads.
Occasionally in pro football there is such a lopsided match-up that a 14-or-higher pointspread is posted on the game. Take the points. Here's why:
Make no mistake about it, pro football players know pointspreads on their games as soon as those pointspreads are posted. Fourteen-or-more point favorites, already believing they should win the game, are further bolstered by the bookmakers' opinion. They are quick to believe they will win the game with little effort. They've probably had a very easy week of practice. That includes their coaches. It's easy for coaches to regard the game as a 'gimme' game, and a good time to rest any starting players that need rest, or to audition any new players that need auditioning. The 'hunger' is gone from both the players and the coaches on a team that's such a big favorite. In short, they take the game for granted.
Meanwhile, the 14-point underdog is embarrassed by such a wide discrepancy. Both the coaches and the players on the underdog team figure to have their jaws set and their feet planted. They figure to want very badly to make a game of it. It's altogether different from college ball.
Then in the 4th quarter, even if the favorite is leading by 20+ points, consider the natural consequences of the situation. The favorites will quite naturally tend to 'coast.' They will simply try to run out the clock. No sense pouring it on any further. Starters will sit out, no one will throw themselves on any spears in order to gain a couple more yards.
The underdogs don't figure to coast a tall. It's not the same situation as if they were only 3-point underdogs to begin with. Three-point underdogs getting their butt handed to them often tend to 'give up.' Not 14-point underdogs. You can bet you're going to get full effort from these underdogs for the full 60 minutes.
More to Come
Ace