Investment plays 8-6 +$3775.00
Action plays 22-19-1 +$112.00
Total 30-25 +$3887.00
Bankroll $75,000
Now $78,887.00
411 system now 9-4 69%
Last 2 Weeks 12-1-1 +$12,115.00
More than one third of all pro football games end with one or another of only four different pointspreads:
Since football is scored almost wholly in increments of 3 points and 7 points, and only occasionally 8 points, 6 points or 2 points, certain pointspreads are much more important than others. For example, a negative point variance from a pointspread of 3 is much more significant that a negative point variance from a pointspread of five. The reason for this is, about 14 percent of all pro football games end with a margin of victory of precisely 3 points, but only about 3.5 percent end with a pointspread of precisely 5 points.
Almost two-thirds of all pro football games can be expected to end precisely with one or another of these ten margins of victory: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 17.
Because of this circumstance, a bookmaker needs a very good reason to move his line either off of or onto one of those ten key numbers. When a bookmaker's line moves from one of those ten key numbers it's usually because he's having difficulty getting enough action on both sides of the bet. He's trying to attract more action to the other side.
To a bettor, this movement of the line can present an opportunity or a trap. An underdog getting 3 1/2 points, for example, is a much better bargain than the same underdog getting only 3 points. The extra 1/2 point means their opponents must upgrade a field goal to a touch-down in order to cover the spread against them.
And by the same token, an underdog getting only 2 1/2 points is a much higher risk than the same underdog getting 3 points. A 1/2 point move either off of or onto a pointspread of 3 can be more important than some moves which appear to be much larger.
An examination of the below numbers shows that an underdog getting 9 1/2 points instead of 7 1/2 points is hardly a better deal at all. Since games very rarely end with a margin of victory of exactly 8 or 9 points, there's simply not much difference between getting 9 1/2 points or 7 1/2 points. If an underdog fails to cover a 7 1/2 point line, it's not likely they will cover a 9 1/2 point line either.
By the same token, a favorite giving away 7 1/2 points is hardly a better bargain than the same favorite giving away 9 1/2 points. If a favorite ends up covering a 7 1/2 point line, they will very likely win the game by more than 9 1/2 points in the process.
NFL Margins of Victory
Because of how pro football is scored some margins of victory are much more likely to occur than others. Below are margins of victory listed according to the percent of time they occurred over 7 years, including all regular season and post-season games. Half of all games ended with one of only 7 different margins of victory.
3: 14.3%
7: 7.2%
4: 6.8%
6: 6.3%
1: 5.1%
14: 5.3%
10: 5.2%
2: 3.7%
11: 3.6%
17: 3.6%
20: 3.5%
5: 3.0%
13: 2.9%
21: 2.3%
24: 2.3%
16: 2.2%
8: 1.9%
9: 1.8%
31: 1.6%
12: 1.6%
27: 1.6%
15: 1.5%
18: 1.5%
23: 1.4%
28: 1.0%
The significance of different size pointspreads does not increase on an evenly ascending scale. Imagine a very crazy staircase where some steps are much higher than others, and hardly any two steps are exactly the same height.
Your natural instinct will be to want to place a bet when the bookmaker's pointspread is a certain distance from your own prediction - say, 3 points or 4 points, 6, 7 etc., - but that instinct is wrong in this particular case because of the unique factors involved.
For example, if your final forecast shows a 2 1/2 point favorite should win the game by 5 points, there may be a good argument for going with the bet, even though your prediction is only 2 1/2 points from the posted line. This is because, as the numbers reveal, there is a substantial likelihood that the favorite could win by either 3 or 4 points.
On the other hand, if your forecast shows a 7-point favorite should win by 10 points, you are probably well advised to pass the bet, even though your prediction is further away from this pointspread than in the above example. Since games rarely end with 8 or 9 point margins of victory, the favorite would very likely have to beat your own forecast in order to cover the line.
More to Come
Ace
Action plays 22-19-1 +$112.00
Total 30-25 +$3887.00
Bankroll $75,000
Now $78,887.00
411 system now 9-4 69%
Last 2 Weeks 12-1-1 +$12,115.00
More than one third of all pro football games end with one or another of only four different pointspreads:
Since football is scored almost wholly in increments of 3 points and 7 points, and only occasionally 8 points, 6 points or 2 points, certain pointspreads are much more important than others. For example, a negative point variance from a pointspread of 3 is much more significant that a negative point variance from a pointspread of five. The reason for this is, about 14 percent of all pro football games end with a margin of victory of precisely 3 points, but only about 3.5 percent end with a pointspread of precisely 5 points.
Almost two-thirds of all pro football games can be expected to end precisely with one or another of these ten margins of victory: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 17.
Because of this circumstance, a bookmaker needs a very good reason to move his line either off of or onto one of those ten key numbers. When a bookmaker's line moves from one of those ten key numbers it's usually because he's having difficulty getting enough action on both sides of the bet. He's trying to attract more action to the other side.
To a bettor, this movement of the line can present an opportunity or a trap. An underdog getting 3 1/2 points, for example, is a much better bargain than the same underdog getting only 3 points. The extra 1/2 point means their opponents must upgrade a field goal to a touch-down in order to cover the spread against them.
And by the same token, an underdog getting only 2 1/2 points is a much higher risk than the same underdog getting 3 points. A 1/2 point move either off of or onto a pointspread of 3 can be more important than some moves which appear to be much larger.
An examination of the below numbers shows that an underdog getting 9 1/2 points instead of 7 1/2 points is hardly a better deal at all. Since games very rarely end with a margin of victory of exactly 8 or 9 points, there's simply not much difference between getting 9 1/2 points or 7 1/2 points. If an underdog fails to cover a 7 1/2 point line, it's not likely they will cover a 9 1/2 point line either.
By the same token, a favorite giving away 7 1/2 points is hardly a better bargain than the same favorite giving away 9 1/2 points. If a favorite ends up covering a 7 1/2 point line, they will very likely win the game by more than 9 1/2 points in the process.
NFL Margins of Victory
Because of how pro football is scored some margins of victory are much more likely to occur than others. Below are margins of victory listed according to the percent of time they occurred over 7 years, including all regular season and post-season games. Half of all games ended with one of only 7 different margins of victory.
3: 14.3%
7: 7.2%
4: 6.8%
6: 6.3%
1: 5.1%
14: 5.3%
10: 5.2%
2: 3.7%
11: 3.6%
17: 3.6%
20: 3.5%
5: 3.0%
13: 2.9%
21: 2.3%
24: 2.3%
16: 2.2%
8: 1.9%
9: 1.8%
31: 1.6%
12: 1.6%
27: 1.6%
15: 1.5%
18: 1.5%
23: 1.4%
28: 1.0%
The significance of different size pointspreads does not increase on an evenly ascending scale. Imagine a very crazy staircase where some steps are much higher than others, and hardly any two steps are exactly the same height.
Your natural instinct will be to want to place a bet when the bookmaker's pointspread is a certain distance from your own prediction - say, 3 points or 4 points, 6, 7 etc., - but that instinct is wrong in this particular case because of the unique factors involved.
For example, if your final forecast shows a 2 1/2 point favorite should win the game by 5 points, there may be a good argument for going with the bet, even though your prediction is only 2 1/2 points from the posted line. This is because, as the numbers reveal, there is a substantial likelihood that the favorite could win by either 3 or 4 points.
On the other hand, if your forecast shows a 7-point favorite should win by 10 points, you are probably well advised to pass the bet, even though your prediction is further away from this pointspread than in the above example. Since games rarely end with 8 or 9 point margins of victory, the favorite would very likely have to beat your own forecast in order to cover the line.
More to Come
Ace