Saturday totals recap:
------------------total line-------lineoff-----------------value--------------play
BAL @ PIT ---------37.0-----------45.76----------------+7.0-------------Over
GNB @ ATL---------45.5-----------49.8-----------------+4.3-------------N/A
SEA @ CHI---------40.0-----------34.9-----------------..-5.1------------N/A
NYJ @ NWE--------45.5-----------51.9-------------------+6.4-----------Over
value of +6 plays BAL/PIT winner
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' NYJ/NWE ?
saturday games of +7.0 and +4.3 both went over 2-0
:grandmais
Pitt -3.5 +106............................$2226.00.........Winner
Atl-1 1st half..............................$630.00 ..........Lost
Atl under 44...............................$630.00..........Lost
Chi game/ there will be no play
but will have a play on the NE vs NYJ game
Record 1-2 +$966.00
Atl-1 1st half..............................$630.00 ..........Lost
Atl under 44...............................$630.00..........Lost
Chi game/ there will be no play
but will have a play on the NE vs NYJ game
Record 1-2 +$966.00
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S PLAYOFF GAMES
We have some interesting dynamics in play this weekend in the NFL playoffs. A few of the games are at or near key numbers like three or ten. Oddsmakers KNOW what will happen if they move a number on or off a key number, and won't do that unless weekend public action demands it. Sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) are also playing a waiting game to see what the public does.
Let's run through all four games in schedule order...
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH:
This game opened at Pittsburgh -3½, because oddsmakers were giving the Steelers credit for the bye week. These teams are so evenly matched, and play such close games against each other that "home team by three" will usually be the default number. Oddsmakers allotted a half point for the bye (which is a BIG half point when it moves off three), but sharps hit the dog immediately. They figure that points will be at a premium, and the bye probably won't matter much.
What will happen over the weekend? Squares (the general public) usually like favorites. But, this isn't a series where you can trust a favorite to win big. I'm interested to see myself. Sportsbooks know they'd get one-sided over the weekend with a half-point move either way (favorite money would pour in on Pittsburgh at -2½, and Baltimore at +3½). We won't see a move unless books need that money to balance out the wagers. Should three stay frozen, I would expect more sharps to like the dog at that price than the favorite given series history. Sharps like defensive dogs.
No movement on the total from the opener of 37. I know sharps are waiting to see what the game day weather forecast is before making a move.
GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA:
Interesting game here. Green Bay is the hot betting team in the NFL right now because they looked impressive down the stretch. Remember the game they gave New England even with Aaron Rodgers on the bench! Oddsmakers knew this, and only made THE RESTED #1 SEED PLAYING AT HOME at 1½-point favorite. That's hard to imagine, a #6 seed being perceived as better than the #1 seed on a neutral field. Sharps bet the line to Atlanta -2½ on the assumption that rest and home field was worth more than it was being given credit for.
Were the line to go to three, I think sharps would step in VERY heavily on the dog. These teams played a close game on this field recently that went right down to the wire. Some would say Green Bay should have won it. Sharps are hoping squares drive the favorite to a field goal so they can get the full three. I believe the public would probably jump on hot Green Bay to at that line. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to sweat lower than normal action for a playoff game while rooting for Green Bay from +1½ to +2½ against the early money, or sweat a high handle game on Atlanta -3 from their perspective. Sportsbooks will have a position on this game. They have to make a pick themselves.
The total has fallen from 45½ down to 43½. From what I'm hearing that's based on respect for Green Bay's defense. Atlanta isn't seen as having a great defense, so an Under bet indoors must be about the Packers stop unit. This is a sign that sharps are looking to bet the Packers. They may not get +3, so they took Under 45½, Under 45, and Under 44½ as a consolation prize.
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO:
Chicago opened at -9½, and was bet up to -10. That was a mix of position taking and support. Sharps believe the public is going to bet Chicago period, because they have a big home field advantage in the winter, and they're playing a team that was way over its head last week. Why not bet -9½ early, then come back in for a middle at +11 or higher before kickoff? I did talk to some sharps, though, who think Seattle's horrible road play this year makes the Bears a good bet even at -10. They were happy to step in early.
I don't think we'll see sharp support for the dog until the line reaches +11 or higher. Some sharps have been very fond of the Seahawks this year on multiple weeks. They were rewarded for that with the upset over New Orleans last week.
The total opened 40 and is up to 41. This is another site where weather means a lot. This upward move is an early sign that things may not be bad. If you want to know weekend weather on a Tuesday or Wednesday, don't ask a weatherman. Ask a sharp!
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND:
The media loves talking about this game, and sharps love talking about it just as much. We saw an opener of New England -9. Sharps wanted the Jets, and had to decide if they should cross their fingers and wait for a +10 from the public...or if nine was the best they were going to get. Some decided waiting would be futile because the Jets get enough public support that the line may not move up. Now we're seeing Jets +8½ everywhere. We're not currently near critical numbers, so sharps who like the Jets will keep waiting until kickoff to see if they can get a higher number.
Note that New England -8½ is in the sweet spot for basic strategy two-team teasers, where you can move the line six points and cross both the 3 and the 6. If this line DOESN'T move, New England -2½ will be in a lot of two-teamers. And, many sharps will be looking at Green Bay +8 or +8½ to pair up with the Patriots in teasers. Based on the percentages, you can like Jets +9 and Patriots -2½ at the same time.
The total opened at 45, and is either 44½ or 45 at the stores I'm seeing right now. Three of the four games are set for cold weather, so we could see some game day developments on the Over/Unders.
So, to sum up, my read of the market and discussions with sharps are showing that the Wise Guys are looking at Baltimore +3 or better, Green Bay +3 if they can get it (otherwise tease and play the total), Seattle only if they're getting +11 or better, and the Jets at +9 or higher...with hopes that the public will back Brady after a weekend of TV hype about how he's having a Hall of Fame season.
We have some interesting dynamics in play this weekend in the NFL playoffs. A few of the games are at or near key numbers like three or ten. Oddsmakers KNOW what will happen if they move a number on or off a key number, and won't do that unless weekend public action demands it. Sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) are also playing a waiting game to see what the public does.
Let's run through all four games in schedule order...
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH:
This game opened at Pittsburgh -3½, because oddsmakers were giving the Steelers credit for the bye week. These teams are so evenly matched, and play such close games against each other that "home team by three" will usually be the default number. Oddsmakers allotted a half point for the bye (which is a BIG half point when it moves off three), but sharps hit the dog immediately. They figure that points will be at a premium, and the bye probably won't matter much.
What will happen over the weekend? Squares (the general public) usually like favorites. But, this isn't a series where you can trust a favorite to win big. I'm interested to see myself. Sportsbooks know they'd get one-sided over the weekend with a half-point move either way (favorite money would pour in on Pittsburgh at -2½, and Baltimore at +3½). We won't see a move unless books need that money to balance out the wagers. Should three stay frozen, I would expect more sharps to like the dog at that price than the favorite given series history. Sharps like defensive dogs.
No movement on the total from the opener of 37. I know sharps are waiting to see what the game day weather forecast is before making a move.
GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA:
Interesting game here. Green Bay is the hot betting team in the NFL right now because they looked impressive down the stretch. Remember the game they gave New England even with Aaron Rodgers on the bench! Oddsmakers knew this, and only made THE RESTED #1 SEED PLAYING AT HOME at 1½-point favorite. That's hard to imagine, a #6 seed being perceived as better than the #1 seed on a neutral field. Sharps bet the line to Atlanta -2½ on the assumption that rest and home field was worth more than it was being given credit for.
Were the line to go to three, I think sharps would step in VERY heavily on the dog. These teams played a close game on this field recently that went right down to the wire. Some would say Green Bay should have won it. Sharps are hoping squares drive the favorite to a field goal so they can get the full three. I believe the public would probably jump on hot Green Bay to at that line. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to sweat lower than normal action for a playoff game while rooting for Green Bay from +1½ to +2½ against the early money, or sweat a high handle game on Atlanta -3 from their perspective. Sportsbooks will have a position on this game. They have to make a pick themselves.
The total has fallen from 45½ down to 43½. From what I'm hearing that's based on respect for Green Bay's defense. Atlanta isn't seen as having a great defense, so an Under bet indoors must be about the Packers stop unit. This is a sign that sharps are looking to bet the Packers. They may not get +3, so they took Under 45½, Under 45, and Under 44½ as a consolation prize.
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO:
Chicago opened at -9½, and was bet up to -10. That was a mix of position taking and support. Sharps believe the public is going to bet Chicago period, because they have a big home field advantage in the winter, and they're playing a team that was way over its head last week. Why not bet -9½ early, then come back in for a middle at +11 or higher before kickoff? I did talk to some sharps, though, who think Seattle's horrible road play this year makes the Bears a good bet even at -10. They were happy to step in early.
I don't think we'll see sharp support for the dog until the line reaches +11 or higher. Some sharps have been very fond of the Seahawks this year on multiple weeks. They were rewarded for that with the upset over New Orleans last week.
The total opened 40 and is up to 41. This is another site where weather means a lot. This upward move is an early sign that things may not be bad. If you want to know weekend weather on a Tuesday or Wednesday, don't ask a weatherman. Ask a sharp!
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND:
The media loves talking about this game, and sharps love talking about it just as much. We saw an opener of New England -9. Sharps wanted the Jets, and had to decide if they should cross their fingers and wait for a +10 from the public...or if nine was the best they were going to get. Some decided waiting would be futile because the Jets get enough public support that the line may not move up. Now we're seeing Jets +8½ everywhere. We're not currently near critical numbers, so sharps who like the Jets will keep waiting until kickoff to see if they can get a higher number.
Note that New England -8½ is in the sweet spot for basic strategy two-team teasers, where you can move the line six points and cross both the 3 and the 6. If this line DOESN'T move, New England -2½ will be in a lot of two-teamers. And, many sharps will be looking at Green Bay +8 or +8½ to pair up with the Patriots in teasers. Based on the percentages, you can like Jets +9 and Patriots -2½ at the same time.
The total opened at 45, and is either 44½ or 45 at the stores I'm seeing right now. Three of the four games are set for cold weather, so we could see some game day developments on the Over/Unders.
So, to sum up, my read of the market and discussions with sharps are showing that the Wise Guys are looking at Baltimore +3 or better, Green Bay +3 if they can get it (otherwise tease and play the total), Seattle only if they're getting +11 or better, and the Jets at +9 or higher...with hopes that the public will back Brady after a weekend of TV hype about how he's having a Hall of Fame season.
Pit -3.5 +106............................$2226.00.........Winner
Atl-1 1st half..............................$630.00 ..........Lost
Atl under 44...............................$630.00..........Lost
NE-6 1st half ............................$2415.00.........Lost
Record 1-3 -$1449.00
NE let us down...up hill for then to win the game
not the week I wanted
Ace
Atl-1 1st half..............................$630.00 ..........Lost
Atl under 44...............................$630.00..........Lost
NE-6 1st half ............................$2415.00.........Lost
Record 1-3 -$1449.00
NE let us down...up hill for then to win the game
not the week I wanted
Ace
What would you have done with this information….?
Colbert is the SB manager at the M casino, and was interviewed in the Billy Walters piece on 60 minutes.
“”” “I think there is value with the Jets this weekend, plus-9 is too many,” Colbert explained, “Even though they got rocked in that Monday night game, the Sharp money was with the Jets at plus-4 in that game. We’ve had minus-7 ½ with the Patriots up all week and have had no takers leading me to believe that is closer to the right number since everyone else is at 8 ½ or 9.”
As of Thursday afternoon, there weren’t even any minus-8‘s out there. If there was anyone out there with large money that liked New England -- regardless of the time of week -- that bet would have been made already at the M, and it hasn’t. It doesn’t mean that the Jets are going to win or cover, but it does definitely give some insight to what the sharpest bettors in town are thinking, people who win more often than not with large straight bets. “””””
I blew it, I checked the line Sunday morning at the M, It was NE –7.5 but –135. So what did I do?
I talked myself into believing that 9.5 -110 is the same as –7.5 -135.
Is there conversion tool to equalize or compare the two…?
[FONT="]..[/FONT]
Colbert is the SB manager at the M casino, and was interviewed in the Billy Walters piece on 60 minutes.
“”” “I think there is value with the Jets this weekend, plus-9 is too many,” Colbert explained, “Even though they got rocked in that Monday night game, the Sharp money was with the Jets at plus-4 in that game. We’ve had minus-7 ½ with the Patriots up all week and have had no takers leading me to believe that is closer to the right number since everyone else is at 8 ½ or 9.”
As of Thursday afternoon, there weren’t even any minus-8‘s out there. If there was anyone out there with large money that liked New England -- regardless of the time of week -- that bet would have been made already at the M, and it hasn’t. It doesn’t mean that the Jets are going to win or cover, but it does definitely give some insight to what the sharpest bettors in town are thinking, people who win more often than not with large straight bets. “””””
I blew it, I checked the line Sunday morning at the M, It was NE –7.5 but –135. So what did I do?
I talked myself into believing that 9.5 -110 is the same as –7.5 -135.
Is there conversion tool to equalize or compare the two…?
[FONT="]..[/FONT]
