Exbookie want to win week 4

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Long Sheet


Week 4

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Sunday, October 2

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DETROIT (3 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 3) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-115 ATS (-43.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-63 ATS (-29.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 101-132 ATS (-44.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (0 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (0 - 3) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 48-77 ATS (-36.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-48 ATS (-30.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at OAKLAND (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 138-105 ATS (+22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 3

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/3/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Short Sheet


Week 4

Sunday, 10/2/2011

DETROIT at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 8-2 ATS off division game
DALLAS: 1-6 ATS in October

NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 7-0 Over Away if the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
JACKSONVILLE: 25-12 ATS off BB road games

SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-6 ATS after covering 2 of L3
PHILADELPHIA: 14-2 Under after allowing 25+ pts BB games

WASHINGTON at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 0-4 ATS in dome games
ST LOUIS: 18-33 ATS after allowing 400+ yds

TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 1-6 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
CLEVELAND: 21-7 Under as home favorite of 3 pts or less

BUFFALO at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 30-9 ATS off win by 3 pts or less
CINCINNATI: 0-6 ATS vs. AFC East

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 23-9 Over Away off BB home games
KANSAS CITY: 25-12 ATS in non-conf home games

CAROLINA at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 0-7 ATS as road dog of 7 pts or less
CHICAGO: 16-4 Under after allowing 375+ yds BB games

PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 43-26 ATS in October
HOUSTON: 16-6 Over off BB road games

ATLANTA at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
ATLANTA: 6-0 ATS off ATS loss
SEATTLE: 19-41 ATS off division win

NY GIANTS at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 23-9 ATS off outright division win as dog
ARIZONA: 37-18 ATS at home off BB SU losses

MIAMI at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MIAMI: 32-13 ATS vs. AFC West
SAN DIEGO: 10-1 Under vs. Miami

DENVER at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 5-15 ATS vs. NFC North
GREEN BAY: 6-0 ATS off BB road games

NEW ENGLAND at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 17-3 Over in all games
OAKLAND: 12-27 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

NY JETS at BALTIMORE, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY JETS: 11-1 Over in road games
BALTIMORE: 12-25 ATS off 2 game road trip


Monday, 10/3/2011

INDIANAPOLIS at TAMPA BAY, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
INDIANAPOLIS: 39-17 Over Away off SU Loss
TAMPA BAY: 11-3 ATS off home game

Trend Report
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Sunday, October 2

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. HOUSTON
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS CITY
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
Chicago is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
Chicago is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games

4:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Arizona is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE
Atlanta is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. GREEN BAY
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. BALTIMORE
NY Jets are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games


Monday, October 3

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TAMPA BAY
Indianapolis is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Indianapolis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

 

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the goal of this is to ask yourself ....how will a team win....only a view...there are many views

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 4
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We’re through three weeks of the NFL season, and something is clearly not right. Perennial doormats Buffalo and Detroit remain undefeated – straight up, at least. Let’s see how things shape up in Week 4 with the NFL poolies' cheat sheet:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-4)

Why Steelers cover: They’re the defending AFC champs, and at some point, they should start playing like it, particularly after subpar performance against under-Manninged Colts last week. Pittsburgh has cashed last five after a non-cover and eight of last 11 getting points.

Why Texans cover: Matt Schaub’s prolific offense far better than what Steelers saw last week in 23-20 win at Indianapolis as overwhelming 10.5-point chalk.

Total (45.5): Over 23-6 in Houston’s last 29 vs. winning teams, and Pittsburgh on over runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 on road.

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (-1)

Why Redskins cover: Should be smarting after blowing chance for road win Monday night in Dallas. 5-1-1 ATS last seven overall.

Why Rams cover: Not much positive going at the betting window for Sam Bradford & Co., but St. Louis has covered last four in this rivalry, and underdog is 8-2 ATS in last 10 Redskins-Rams affairs.

Total (43.5): Washington has gone low in eight of past 10.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Why 49ers cover: After beating Bengals 13-8 in scintillating game at Cincinnati, Niners smartly opt to stay in region this week, so it’ll be a short trip to Philly. Eagles 1-5 ATS last six overall, 0-4 ATS last four at home.

Why Eagles cover: Everybody’s sexy Super Bowl pick needs a performance that proves they’re worth hype, and Niners are right foe at right time. Philly 5-0 ATS last five in this rivalry.

Total (44.5): Under has hit in Eagles’ last four at home, but over is on upticks of 4-1 for Niners, 11-5 for Philly and 6-1 when these two teams get together.

Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

Why Vikings cover: Not much to support the Men in Purple here, particularly after blowing 20-0 lead at home to Detroit. But K.C. has covered just one of last five overall and one of last five at home.

Why Chiefs cover: Same situation – not for what Kansas City has done, but for what Minnesota hasn’t. Vikes on ATS purges of 4-9-1 overall and 4-9 on highway.

Total (39.5): Under the play in Vikes’ last five roadies.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

Why Bills cover: Buffalo can score, and Cincinnati cannot. Bills averaging league-best 37.7 ppg, while Bengals average 19 ppg (25th). Cincy mustered a whopping eight points in home loss to Niners last week. Bills pasted host Cincinnati last November, 49-31.

Why Bengals cover: Bills coming off hugely emotional comeback win over Patriots, so a big letdown would be no surprise. Cincy has cashed five of last six overall and four straight as a pup.

Total (43.5): Over for Bills has hit four in a row overall and four of five on road, and total has gone high last four Buffalo-Cincy meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Why Titans cover: Road team 6-2 ATS last eight Tennessee-Cleveland contests. Browns on ATS dives of 1-5-1 overall and 0-5-1 at home.

Why Browns cover: Titans lost rising star wideout Kenny Britt (knee) for season last week, so QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to bunch of no-names, while Britt gets more time to devote to legal issues.

Total (38): No dynamic offenses here, to be sure. Under 15-7 Browns’ last 22 as home favorite.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees and high-octane offense racking up 34.7 ppg, second-best in league. Jaguars are anti-Saints, with low-octane offense averaging paltry 9.7 ppg (31st). Jags 2-9 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.

Why Jaguars cover: Saints on ATS slides of 1-9 vs. losing teams and 1-5 on highway. Sean Payton’s defense also giving up 29.3 ppg (30th).

Total (46.5): As noted above, New Orleans lights up scoreboard and is on 5-1 over run on road. That said Jags’ pathetic offense has led to 4-1 under mark in last five overall.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

Why Panthers cover: Rookie QB Cam Newton less of a head case than veteran Bears QB Jay Cutler. Underdog 3-0-1 ATS last four in this rivalry.

Why Bears cover: Facing team that mustered just eight points through 55 minutes vs. woeful Jacksonville last week.

Total (43.5): Chicago netted just 30 total points in losses to heavyweights New Orleans and Green Bay; finally gets to face a lightweight, so scoring should follow. Bears on over surges of 4-0 laying points and 22-10 as home chalk.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

Why Lions cover: The no-longer-cowardly Lions have won seven in a row SU and gone 6-0-1 ATS, dating to last season. And the push came in their comeback win at Minnesota last week. Cowboys in 1-6 ATS rut as home chalk.

Why Cowboys cover: Detroit’s run bound to end soon, and this is the Lions’ second straight week on the road, while Dallas is home for second straight week.

Total (46): Monday night’s game notwithstanding – Dallas won by scoring SIX field goals – Cowboys Stadium is home to lots of points. Over 9-1 in last 10 at Jerry Jones’ football Taj Mahal.

New York Giants (-1) at Arizona Cardinals

Why Giants cover: Eli Manning appears to have found form, torching vaunted Eagles secondary for four TDs last week. That added to New York’s lore as an ATS road warrior: Giants 28-13 ATS last 41 on highway.

Why Cardinals cover: They get to come home, after criss-crossing country in losses at Washington and woeful Seattle. And Arizona 7-2 ATS last nine as home pup.

Total (44.5): Over 8-2 in Cards’ last 10 at home and 15-6-1 in Giants’ last 21 NFC contests.

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Falcons cover: Matt Schaub & Co., even at 1-2 SU, are playoff-caliber team. Seattle, at 1-2 SU, starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB. That about covers it. Falcons have cashed six straight vs. losing teams.

Why Seahawks cover: Not much good to say, but Seattle did win and cash vs. Arizona last week, moving to 4-1 ATS last five at home.

Total (40.5): Over 10-3-2 in Falcons’ last 15 overall and 11-3 in Seahawks’ last 14 overall.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7)

Why Dolphins cover: Road is where the cash is – Fish 18-7-1 ATS last 26 roadies and 15-5-1 ATS last 21 as road ‘dog.

Why Chargers cover: At some point – and this looks like a good one – Philip Rivers-led offense should blow up. San Diego second-highest scoring team in league last year (27.6 ppg) but averaging just 21.7 this year. Winless Miami allowing 26 ppg this season and is 0-5-1 ATS last six.

Total (45): These two teams play to the under with regularity. Total has gone low in eight straight Dolphins-Chargers tilts and five in a row at San Diego.

New England Patriots (-4) at Oakland Raiders

Why Patriots cover: By doing what they do, which is score a ton of points – 34.7 per game on average this year, tied for second in league. Tom Brady threw four INTs at Buffalo last week. He might not throw four INTs rest of year. Pats have long been good road bet, at 45-22-3 ATS last 70 on the highway.

Why Raiders cover: They’ll feed ball to Darren McFadden, who torched Jets for 171 yards and two TDs last week. Brady’s offense can’t get going if it’s not on field. Oakland has cashed four in a row, all as underdog.

Total (54.5): If both offenses continue rolling, this could be scoring bonanza. Pats on over streaks of 19-7 overall, 6-1 in roadies and 15-3 within AFC. Over for Raiders on surges of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 5-0 with Oakland a home pup.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

Why Broncos cover: Hard to make compelling case here, but we’ll try. Green Bay 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 as home chalk of more than 10 points.

Why Packers cover: QB Aaron Rodgers will have his way with Broncos unit that’s on road for second straight week. Pack 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 6-1 ATS last seven at Lambeau. Denver one of worst ATS teams in league over past few years and currently on 4-10-1 pointspread dive.

Total (46): Over has been play in six of Pack’s last seven at home and is 9-1 in Broncos’ last 10 vs. winning teams.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Why Jets cover: They got popped in mouth by Raiders, which might be nice wake-up call in time to face another stout opponent on road. Rex Ryan’s troops 13-6 ATS last 19 getting points.

Why Ravens cover: Because they own Jets, beating them six in a row SU and going 5-1 ATS in that span. Baltimore back home after two-game road swing.

Total (41.5): Both teams purport to be defensive-minded, but total has gone high in four straight for Ravens, and over for Jets on surges of 20-7 overall, 16-4-1 on road and 8-1 with New York catching points.

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)

Why Colts cover: Tampa a double-digit favorite? Really? Bucs haven’t been in that role since 2008, and they’re 5-16 ATS in last 21 at home. Even without Peyton Manning, Indy showed some spark vs. Steelers, nearly knocking off defending AFC champs last week in 23-20 loss catching 10.5 points at home.

Why Buccaneers cover: Got the cash in four of last five overall and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight vs. losing teams.

Total (40.5): Indy has played to over in six of last seven on road and five of last six as a pup.

 

[ACE-ACE]

match all 3
185 N.CAR UN 59....Win
141 TT OV 67.5........Win
139 KENT ST UN 47....Win
133 W.MICH UN 44.5 ....Lost

3-1 for the week....its starting well like it did last year

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

only one 411 play this week....Washington

 

[ACE-ACE]

$2100.00 Play #213 Washington (-1.5) over St.L (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
This play is from the 411 System and it is my Game of the Week.
The Redskins lost on Monday Night Football because of some late turnovers. But I was impressed with this team again and I thought that they were the better team on the field. Washington is 2-1 on the season and they have a very veteran team that I think will have no problem bouncing back from that MNF defeat. St. Louis is an exhausted team right now. They have been blown out in three straight weeks by the Eagles, Giants and Ravens. This was supposed to be the year that the Rams dominated the NFC West. But instead they have been the worst team in the division and are in last place. All reports talked about how dejected and beaten down they were after the Ravens left town. The Redskins are just as physical and they have revenge for a 20-point loss here last year. This is not the same Washington team and the Redskins seem to buy into Mike Shanahan's systems. The same cannot be said for the Rams and I see them falling to 0-4.


$2100.00 Play #219 Minnesota (-1.5) over Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
AND
$800.00 Play. Take 'Under' 39.5 Minnesota at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
The Vikings could be 3-0 right now. They have had double-digit leads in all three of their games in the second half and have blown them all. If they were 3-0 this line would look a whole lot different but this small line doesn't change the talent disparity. The Vikings have the better defense and the better running game and they don't want to fall to 0-4. Kansas City has been blown out in two of its three games. They are also off a disappointing close loss to rival San Diego. It will be tough for them to bounce back from that game. Looking at the two common opponents that the Vikings and Chiefs have played (Detroit and San Diego) the Vikings played much better than the Chiefs. They are the stronger team and won't be bothered by being on the road here.


$600.00 Play. Take #224 Houston (-4) over Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
Houston is favored for a reason in this game. I think that all of the public money is going to come in on the Steelers here since they are a big public team. But despite that the line has jumped from its open at 2.0 to its current spot at 4.0. That line movement tells me all the sharp money is coming in on the Texans, who are tough at home. Houston should have beaten the Saints on the road last week and this is a good Houston team. Pittsburgh was blown out in its first road game of the year at Baltimore. And they have just looked OK in their last two games against bad teams (Seattle, Indianapolis). Right now Pittsburgh has a lot of problems on the offensive line and they cannot protect Big Ben or establish the running game that has been their strength for decades. It won't get any easier this week against a good Texans defense. I like the home team by a touchdown here.



$300.00 Play. Take #209 New Orleans (-6.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
The Saints used a miracle comeback last week to win and cover at home against the Texans. They are back on the road but I think that the momentum will keep going. The Saints have played a very tough schedule so far this year (Green Bay, Chicago, Houston) while Jacksonville is just 1-2 despite not playing a good schedule at all. The Jaguars have a rookie quarterback under center and he won't be any match for the blitzing Saints defense. Drew Brees should get a lot of possessions here and I can see the Saints delivering the knockout punch early in the second half.

 

[dirtymoose]

i have minny at -2.5 =(

 

[ALSportsJunkie]

i have minny at -2.5 =(

Doesn't matter - they are getting killed. Only a "system" would have a big play on such a shit team...anyone who has been paying attention the past four weeks would of stayed a mile away from these two shit teams.

 

[ShiftyMac]

how about using widely available lines? These lines seem like they are from Wednesday, not saturday or sunday

 

[NegroGrande]

are you people shitting me? Ace just went 4-1 and you're complaining?

 

[ALSportsJunkie]

Going to be a small miracle at this point for Washington to hold. They are getting totally out-played now.

 

[ShiftyMac]

im not complaining at all, just curious as to why he's using tuesday-wednesday lines, and not current ones...i respect ace and his plays

 

[ALSportsJunkie]

are you people shitting me? Ace just went 4-1 and you're complaining?

Washington hasn't won yet...no sense counting the money before the game is over. If this one goes down we are all big losers on the day.

 

[dirtymoose]

are you people shitting me? Ace just went 4-1 and you're complaining?

let wash cash and well talk

 

[dirtymoose]

63 yard punt may save wash.

 

[ALSportsJunkie]

Shit..finally. So glad to get the push on these investment games.

 

[ACE-ACE]

$400.00 Play. Take #234 Oakland (+4.5) over New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
This one is an upset special! I think that the Raiders have a chance to knock off the Patriots in this one. New England is in the second of back-to-back road games and they are coming off a bad loss in Buffalo where they blew a 21-0 lead. The Patriots have to fly cross-country to face a team that they don't respect and the Pats also could be looking ahead to a game with the Jets next week. Oakland has one of the best running backs and running games in the NFL right now and I don't think that they will have any trouble moving the ball against New England's No. 31 ranked defense. This is not the same Oakland team we have seen in the past and they are tough. All of the square money is coming down on the Patriots but I will get with the live dog here.

 

[ACE-ACE]

my home town lions...Wow is all I can say.....

4-1 with one game to go +$1595.00

411 system that last two week 2-1

 

[CrocodileHunter]

im not complaining at all, just curious as to why he's using tuesday-wednesday lines, and not current ones...i respect ace and his plays

I'm pretty sure that he releases his plays on Tuesday with the amounts being played released on Thursday. If you want the lines he plays then you have to pay for his plays.

 

[WinWinChickenDin]

Who do you like in the SNF game ACE? Tough one. Even a lean would be appreciated (<)<

 

[ACE-ACE]

Who do you like in the SNF game ACE? Tough one. Even a lean would be appreciated (<)<

the game is even could go both way...over is the best edge