[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW YEAR'S WEEK IN NEVADA[/FONT]
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Last week I talked about what Christmas Week at the sportsbooks was going to be like. I have to say it was even a bit more subdued than I expected. The economy is tough. The football schedule was light. Las Vegas and Reno did take plenty of action. People will find a way to bet! We've had bigger weeks in past years. [/FONT]
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I just had one of my biggest weekends...going 3-1 in the Bowls, winning with North Carolina (+2½) over West Virginia 30-31, Florida State (-6) over Wisconsin 42-13, and on Sunday, Louisiana Tech (-1½) over Northern Illinois 17-10. The only loss was with Cal, who jumped from a 7 to 10 point favorite against Miami-Fla, in their 24-17 win. [/FONT]
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In the final Sunday of the NFL, I was 2-0-1, winning my biggest play with the Texans' (+3) 31-24 upset of the Bears, and the Dolphins (+3) upset over the Jets 24-17. [/FONT]
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Now it's on to the biggest party week in Las Vegas! [/FONT]
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There is no bigger party night than New Year's Eve...and there's no better party city than Las Vegas. That by itself means the state will be buzzing with energy and excitement. Reno isn't as wild as Vegas for New Year's (who is?). But, it's probably a lot like your hometown city...which means it's a lot wilder than normal because of the party atmosphere. [/FONT]
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And, this time around, we have a GREAT football schedule that's going to attract a lot of attention. The absence of football right around Christmas just delayed the inevitable in terms of intense activity. The big games are finally here...so sportsbooks all over the state will be madhouses. That's usually a very good sign for sportsbook operators. The pubic can't win when they're sober. How are they going to win when they're betting drunk, or betting while nursing hangovers! Be sure YOU are thinking with a clear head when you handicap games this week![/FONT]
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It's not just that we finally have some bowl games to handicap and bet...some GOOD BOWL GAMES to handicap and bet...we also have the first week of the NFL playoffs! [/FONT]
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Here's a sense of what it's all going to look like...[/FONT]
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NEW YEAR'S EVE (Wednesday)[/FONT]
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Because it's been such a tough year for so many people, I expect this to be a day where everyone just lets it all hang out. Forget about your troubles. Bet some games. HAVE SOME FUN![/FONT]
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There are FIVE football games scheduled, and they will be bet heavily even if all don't involve big name teams. In terms of my personal service, I do have some very big releases planned for this day and the next. I don't want to get too specific because too many people will try to guess what the big plays are instead of just getting them! I can tell you this...as I write this article, I've yet to release my BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (these are 5-0 the past five seasons!), BOWL UPSET OF THE YEAR, and BOWL PARLAY OF THE YEAR. There's a good shot something MAJOR will be part of this Wednesday card. I'll leave it at that. [/FONT]
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NEW YEAR'S DAY (Thursday): [/FONT]
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We call this "Hangover Day" in Nevada. It's particularly tough for football fans in the Western time zone because the games start so early in the morning! You think it's tough getting your brain working in time late morning starts on the East Coast. Look at what WE have to deal with![/FONT]
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8am kickoff: Iowa vs. South Carolina in the OUTBACK BOWL
10am kickoff: Clemson vs. Nebraska in the GATOR BOWL
10am kickoff: Michigan State vs. Georgia in the CAPITAL ONE BOWL
2pm kickoff: Penn State vs. USC in the ROSE BOWL
5:15pm kickoff: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech in the ORANGE BOWL[/FONT]
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It's been worse in other years. The Cotton Bowl is on Friday this year, or we'd have another morning kickoff to sweat with blurred vision. [/FONT]
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Honestly, most people bet these games the night before out here if they're going to play them. The wagering public just isn't ready to pack the sportsbooks at 7 a.m. the morning after New Year's Eve. If they're here, they probably spent the night and just never went to bed! If you see line moves right before kickoff, those are just as likely to come from sharps. Professional wagerers are very disciplined when it comes to betting big money. If you see a bettor without a hangover, he's probably a sharp. [/FONT]
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By the time Penn State/USC kicks off mid afternoon our time, the sportsbooks will be full and busy. Southern Cal is a virtual local team in Las Vegas and Reno. One reason their lines are always so high during the regular season is that locals bet them as if they're alumni. That's one of the most anticipated games of the whole bowl season here in Nevada. The handle will be off the charts because EVERYONE is going to bet that game. [/FONT]
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FRIDAY JANUARY 2nd:
In what I think is a great idea, the Cotton Bowl has been moved back a day to get an exclusive TV window. Sure, the purist in me likes having the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Day. This year, Ole Miss (the only team to defeat Florida) and Texas Tech has a chance to be one of the most entertaining bowls of all. This game is going to generate a lot of betting interest as a result. I wish it started later in the day, but you can't have everything. [/FONT]
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Here's the full Friday bowl schedule:
COTTON BOWL: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech
LIBERTY BOWL: East Carolina vs. Kentucky
SUGAR BOWL: Alabama vs. Utah[/FONT]
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Instead of what could have been an off day between New Year's and the start of the NFL playoffs, we get a tripleheader that has two very interesting matchups for handicappers. Don't make the mistake of overlooking these games because you want a little break from football. I can assure you that one game in particular is offering up one of the true hidden gems of the entire bowl slate. [/FONT]
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SATURDAY/SUNDAY JANUARY 3-4th: [/FONT]
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Your head will finally be clear after all the midweek partying. Life will be almost back to normal, and it's already WILDCARD WEEKEND in the NFL playoffs![/FONT]
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Here are the matchups and early lines:[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Saturday: Atlanta (-1) at Arizona & Indianapolis (PK) at San Diego
Sunday: Baltimore (-3) at Miami & Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota [/FONT]
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These games will be heavily bet in Las Vegas and Reno. The full volume will depend on how the public did in the bowl games. If they won...which happens some years when the favorites and Overs do well (the public always bets favorites and Overs), all of that money will get put back into play in the WILDCARD games. If the public struggled during the late bowls, they'll be betting this weekend for smaller amounts. [/FONT]
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I personally love the Wildcard games because it's pure nuts and bolts handicapping. Neither team has a fatigue advantage. Home field seems to mean less in these games than in the later rounds. You focus on quality, trust your Power Rating numbers, trust your matchup analysis, and make your call. If you follow pro football closely, these games just aren't that hard to pick. The public tends to overrate the value of home field here, and overrate whichever team the media is hyping. [/FONT]
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It was a year ago this time where NOBODY was giving the New York Giants a chance to reach the Super Bowl because they'd have to win out on the road. It was also this week where the Giants took that first big step toward making history. [/FONT]
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Be sure to look for my website article running on Saturday outlining "What the Sharps are Thinking in the NFL" at Vegas Sports Masters. That information is CRUCIAL during the playoffs. [/FONT]
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Of course, in there's also BASKETBALL going on! Conference play is ready to roll in most leagues. Saturday in particular is a huge day in this sport because so many teams are in action. I've always said the best time to bet basketball is when the sports books are buried in football action![/FONT]
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MONDAY JANUARY 5TH: [/FONT]
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You thought we were finished? Ha! The Monday Night game this week is only TEXAS VS. OHIO STATE![/FONT]
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Those are two of the most popular betting teams in Nevada. It's amazing how many people across the country went to one of those two schools. You know Ohio State fans travel well. You might be surprised how many travel to Las Vegas rather than the site of the bowl game! Many will be stopping in Nevada on the way to Arizona for this one too. Anybody who follows legal gambling knows all about "Texas money" as well. [/FONT]
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Given the schedule this week...and the reality of when most of you will be reading this article...I've put together a very special FOUR-DAY, TWO-SPORT package for those of you who are interested in trying out the service but want to start with something quick and easy...[/FONT]
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For the very low price of just $100, you'll get:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]FRIDAY[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL STUNNER![/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
My top release from the Cotton, Liberty, or Sugar Bowl will kick off the weekend. I won't get too specific here because I need to protect the play for customers. I can tell you that I like this one better than I liked Florida State over Wisconsin this past Saturday...and that was a 5-point favorite that won 42-13![/FONT]
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SATURDAY-SUNDAY
2-SPORT WILDCARD WEEKEND EXTRAVAGANZA[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NFL WILDCARD GAME OF THE YEAR[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NFL WILDCARD SHOCKER[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]COLLEGE BASKETBALL GIFT GAME OF THE YEAR[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]COLLEGE BASKETBALL MARQUEE MOVE OF THE MONTH[/FONT]
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MONDAY
FIESTA BOWL INSIDER SPECIAL
My unique position in the center of the legal sports wagering markets will allow me to make sure you get the right side in the Ohio State/Texas game that everyone's been waiting for. Ohio State has played in the last two BCS Championship games...and Texas believes they should be there this year. This one will definitely have a BCS feel to it...and I'm 5-0 the last five years in BCS Championship games![/FONT]
