Exbookie Want To Help The Players Week 9

[ACE-ACE]

BETS OVER $2000 11-2 +$25525.00

BETS UNDER $1300 7-8 -$1215.00

TOTAL 18-10 +$24,310


Athletes aren't crazy about road trips...In football,offense more than defense suffers when a team takes a road trip..

back to back road situations can be even more taxing on players to the point that it can inhibit the play of the offense....


2001 and 2002 footballseasons the "under" is 69-42-5 when a team is playing the 2nd of back to back road games...


many smart capper pay close attention to this....with respects to the side....anticipating whether a team might have a letdown because they"re tired from all that traveling.

away fav wk2-6 =20-8 ALL AWAY GAMES +16
wk7-8 = 2-4...AFTER 8 WEEKS +12
AT THE END OF 17 WEEKS IT WILL BE EVEN OR HOME TEAMS AHEAD
as i have said before if you bet away fav.in the 1st 8 week you will make money.....its turnning the last two weeks

two week on the road game last week .. THERE WAS 4TEAMS

bal only score 10
det lost to dallas by10
jac only 6 point and lost to hou by14
atl won 41-25

4 games on back to back only one did good

this week there are three oak.....ari.......ne.....

the game i like is arizona +3 my line is ari-6...a value of 9

time ari +12 vs -11
t/o 10 vs 20

i want to show you this because i would have bet 3000 on this game but this is a back to back road game for them....
after i make my line at -6...i take away -4 for back to back road game ...and now its -2.....a value of 5 ....it kill this bet for me...

bookie line vs my line

NYJ -1 1/2......-8

PHI-1 ..... PIT -7

DET-3 1/2......EVEN

DAL-1..........-2

CAR-7...........-7

MIA-3.....ARI-6

KC-3........-7

NYG-9........-12

SEA-7........-5

SD-6.........-8

NE-2.5..STL-2

DEN-6 1/2....EVEN

BAL-6........-1

IND-6.........EVEN

THE 5 GAME I'AM LOOKING AT IS NYJ
PIT
NYG
SD
KC
I WILL MAKE MY PICK THURSDAY AT THIS TIME....

BY THE WAY THE MONEY FOR THE BUSH WIN JUST WENT IN TO MY ACC.......4 YEARS AGO IT TOOK 38 DAY.......

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

 

[FairWarning]

Nice hit Ace last week. About the Bears/NYG game, T Jones is ques. with a sprained toe. Can't see him being very effective. Also Krenzel's first road start. Could get ugly for the Bears.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Nice hit Ace last week. About the Bears/NYG game, T Jones is ques. with a sprained toe. Can't see him being very effective. Also Krenzel's first road start. Could get ugly for the Bears.

THANK FOR THE HEADS UP.......

 

[MARTEL910]

ACE-ACE

YOU DA MAN!!!!!


I'll be here tommorow waiting for your picks, I love the Jets and Pitt this Sunday.

 

[Parrella]

Ace....great job so far this season. Been following you for a few weeks, but just joined the forum a few days ago. Thanks for all the great insight. You're lines seem to be very accurate and work great. I was just wondering how you weigh some of the different stats to come up with the different lines. I'm trying to put something together and any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks and keep up the great work.

 

[FairWarning]

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/10073444.htm

Thomas Jones link above.

 

[vtec]

NYJ -3
KC -3
SD -6

Looks very good!!!! =)

 

[vtec]

ACE!!!

got any thoughts on HOu/Den game?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace....great job so far this season. Been following you for a few weeks, but just joined the forum a few days ago. Thanks for all the great insight. You're lines seem to be very accurate and work great. I was just wondering how you weigh some of the different stats to come up with the different lines. I'm trying to put something together and any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks and keep up the great work.

I WORK ON THIS FOR A LONG TIME....CAN GIVE YOU A SIMPLE WEIGH...
ADJUSTING AND FINE TUNING IT EVERY TWO WEEKS.....I CAN GIVE YOU TWO.......TURNOVER(GIVEWAY ONLY) NYJ GOT 5 BUFF GOT 11 DIFF 6.......EVERY 3 DIFF IS A POINT....SO NYJ GET 2....

PENALITY...JET HAVE 220YD....BUFF HAVE 475 DIFF OF 255 EVERY 100= TWO 1 POINT....SO IT = TO 2.5 POINTS

JUST ON THEM NYJ FAV 4.5.........IT WOULD TAKE TWO LONG TO SHOW YOU ALL OF THEM.....HOPE THAT GET YOU STARTED.....

 

[EasyMoney]

well if you go by last weeks lesson about how much the bookie line is off from the actual outcome then you have something like this.

KC is beating the bookie line by 17 points give or take
TB is -1

NYJ +21.5
Buff +3

Phi +31
Pit +43.5

Chi +23
NYG +57

NO -40
SD +87.5

The Giants and SD appear to be the teams that the bookies haven't figured out yet.

NO and SD have about the same turnovers and penalties. With SD having the edge in almost every statistical catergory. To me SD seems to be a good bet.

ACE, Am I right on this stuff as far as the bookie line vs. actual.

 

[Parrella]

thanks alot ace. appreciate your help. good luck this week.

 

[twjd]

Hey Ace do have any advice for GreyHound racing?

 

[ACE-ACE]

well if you go by last weeks lesson about how much the bookie line is off from the actual outcome then you have something like this.

KC is beating the bookie line by 17 points give or take
TB is -1

NYJ +21.5 .... +23
Buff +3

Phi +31 .... +32
Pit +43.5...... +29

Chi +23........+14
NYG +57

NO -40........-33
SD +87.5.....+87

The Giants and SD appear to be the teams that the bookies haven't figured out yet.

NO and SD have about the same turnovers and penalties. With SD having the edge in almost every statistical catergory. To me SD seems to be a good bet.

ACE, Am I right on this stuff as far as the bookie line vs. actual.

POINT I GIVE FOR SD BEING +87 NO -33= 120 A GAME IS PLUS ON ONE SIDE AND MINUS ON THE OTHER SIDE..... MORE THAN 40 DIFF IT WOULD BE 6 POINT TO NYJ....SOMETIME 30....FINE TUNE....

IN THE CHI GAME 23 VS 57 BOTH ARE PLUS 3.4 POINTS FOR NYG

YOU ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK....BUT YOU CANT USE THE BOOKIE OFF LINE BY IT SELF

MORE TO USE...TIME/TAKEWAY/RUN/PASS/DEF/OFF/ AWAY/HOME/

ONES YOU GOT THE LINE FROM ALL THIS....ITS A STARTING POINT.. NOW....WHO OUT ...WHO IN....YOUR FEELING.......THING THAT HAPPEN THIS WEEK......LAST WEEK.......AND I CAN THINK OF ABOUT 10 MORE....

THIS IS WHERE I FIND THE "GAMES" GOOD LUCK ITS NOT EASY TRYING TO START THIS....I THINK I TALK ABOUT THIS LAST YEAR.....CHECK MY OLD POST YOU MAY FIND MORE THAT CAN HELP ....

 

[hardcorecap]

Ace, you really make breaking down games into a science. Its very interesting, and your record speaks for itself. Great job

 

[Bluesters]

Best Bet? Jets

Ace,
Who is your best bet out of the 5?
Thanks for all your games

 

[LetsRoll]

His best bet is going to be the game he comes back and plays like he said he was going to post...

and Greyhound racing?? You've got to be kidding me...

Just let the man post and quit asking all these stupid questions.

:messed:

 

[BadAz117]

Don't do it ACE!!!!

Don't you go betting against my EAGLES. You've been so hot, that will make me very, very, nervous. At least don't go making it one of your big plays :coffeetim


As a fan, I watch the birds every week. I expect Duce Staley will have a huge day, and I look forward to seeing how the rookie QB handles Jim Johnson's defensive schemes. I think Pittsburgh may come out a little flat after beating NE last week too. At least I hope so. Philly is a great road team, and If Westbrook plays it should be an awesome game. GO EAGLES!!!

I've been a lurker for about a month and have enjoyed this site, and your posts in particular. Thanks for all your work and great capping!

 

[TheAce]

K.C. does not play well in Fla. I do not have that stat right now. I will see if i can find it. They are o for something in their last 6 or 7 trips. Be careful.

ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

out of the 5 games I was looking at
NYJ-3......A VALUE +5
PITT +1 A VALUE +8
NYG -9 A VALUE +3
SD -6 A VALUE +2
KC -3 A VALUE +4

PITT GAME IT PHI OFFENSE VS PITT DEFENSE..
TIME PIT +33 VS PHI -8.....
T/O 7 VS 6
LINE DIFF +29 VS +32.....

I SAID SOMEONE WILL WIN THIS GAME BY 7.....

ITS GOT MORE VALUE THAN THE OTHER....BUT A SMALL BET

PITT +1 $500 ALSO SMALL BET ON

SD -6 FOR $500

KC -3 FOR $800........... I FIND VALUE IN ALL THESE GAMES....

NOW FOR THE ONES THAT COUNT.....


NYJ -3 $3000

TURN OVER NYJ 6 VS BUF 11
PENALTIES 220 VS 475 THAT ONLY -31YD A GAME.........WOW
TAKEWAYS VS GIVAWAY
NYJ +12 VS BUF -4........WOW.....

3 WEEK AGO THEY PLAY AND NYJ WON 16-14...CLOSE GAME....

THE KEY IS BUF HAS ONLY WON MIA ... AND ARI ....
EVERY OAKLAND BEAT THEM.....
BUFF DEFENSE MAY KEEP THEM IN THE GAME FOR HALF THE GAME.....BUT SEE THE JETS WINNING BY 10-14 POINTS

THERE IS A LAW NOT TO LAY TO MANY POINTS.....
(SOMEWHERE)

BUT IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS 26 OF THE 28 GAMES PLAYED THE POINT DID NOT MATTER....THATS 7%....

NYG......

TURN OVER NYG 6 VS CHI 14
PENALTIES 340 VS 448
TIME +12 VS -11
LINE OFF +57 VS +14

FOR CHI T.JONES IS ??? WITH A SPRAINED TOE....ALSO KRENZEL 1ST ROAD START.....

I COULD LAY THE MONEY LINE HERE AND WIN EASY....
430-100.......BUT I THINK THE SCORE OF THIS GAME COULD BE A BLOW OUT.....

MY BET WILL BE NYG -9 FOR $4000.00




RECAP

NYG -9 $4000.00
NYJ -3 $3000.00

FOR FUN
PIT +1 $500.00
SD-6 $500.00
KC-3 $800.00


GOOD LUCK TO ALL

 

[MARTEL910]

ACE-ACE, I'm with you........