Exbookie Thread On Talking About This Coming Season 30 Days Before Preseason

[Dreamer]

ace the last 2 years i have picked below51%, and i always look forward to reading what you have to say.thanks for continuing to share your thoughts and insights each week.there are so many others here that also make this a must read site if one is interested in beating the books over the season. i prefer to look at the total season results as opposed to the up and down each week, and as always look to finish in the plus. can,t wait to start the saeson long journey!
dreamer

 

[Dave007inVegas]

Ace. I'm A Nubie Here. Been Folowing You For The Past 3 Years And I Am Impressed With The Amount Of Work You Put Into Your Capping. The Only Way Stats Lie Is When A Team Decides Not To Show Up. I Think A Good 10% Of Capping Is Based On Whether A Team Comes In Sharp Or Flat. How Anyone Predicts That Is Beyond Me. I Will Give You My Thoughts As The Season Goes On. I Won't Disagree For The Sake Of Disagreeing. I Will Always Try To Give A Valid Reason. I Not A Big Better And Mostly Play Parlays, No Less Than 4 Teams And No More Than 6. Average Wager $20 To $40. Ps. My Brother In Law Is A Cop In Pittsburgh And Does Side Line Security At Heinze Field. Occationly He Comes Up With Good Info. I Will Share With All In The Forum. - Dave

 

[ESQAJM]

ACE: My book sets its season win totals higher than the totals you posted above. But as you know books don't give away ice in the winter. To make up for it they raise the odds substantially on the UNDER bet. For instance in your post above you had
Giants - Under 8.0 +100
Buffalo - Under 6.0 -115

My book had
Giants - Under 8.5 155/100
Buffalo - Under 6.5 180/100

I gave a lot of thought as to which numbers to use and finally decinded to lay the big odds and go Under the higher numbers. I still don't know if I did the right thing.
I'm interested in hearing anyone's thoughts on this.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace. I'm A Nubie Here. Been Folowing You For The Past 3 Years And I Am Impressed With The Amount Of Work You Put Into Your Capping. The Only Way Stats Lie Is When A Team Decides Not To Show Up. I Think A Good 10% Of Capping Is Based On Whether A Team Comes In Sharp Or Flat. How Anyone Predicts That Is Beyond Me. I Will Give You My Thoughts As The Season Goes On. I Won't Disagree For The Sake Of Disagreeing. I Will Always Try To Give A Valid Reason. I Not A Big Better And Mostly Play Parlays, No Less Than 4 Teams And No More Than 6. Average Wager $20 To $40. Ps. My Brother In Law Is A Cop In Pittsburgh And Does Side Line Security At Heinze Field. Occationly He Comes Up With Good Info. I Will Share With All In The Forum. - Dave

I ALWAY SAY...WE ALL HAVE SOMETHING TO SHARE....1ST OFF WELCOME TO THE WRITING PART OF THE FORUM...CANT WAIT TO SEE WHAT YOU GOT...

BEST TO YOU
ACE-ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE: My book sets its season win totals higher than the totals you posted above. But as you know books don't give away ice in the winter. To make up for it they raise the odds substantially on the UNDER bet. For instance in your post above you had
Giants - Under 8.0 +100
Buffalo - Under 6.0 -115

My book had
Giants - Under 8.5 155/100
Buffalo - Under 6.5 180/100

I gave a lot of thought as to which numbers to use and finally decinded to lay the big odds and go Under the higher numbers. I still don't know if I did the right thing.
I'm interested in hearing anyone's thoughts on this.

SOME BOOKS DO THIS BECAUSE THEY FEEL IT WILL GO A WAY THAT THEY LIKE....IF I WAS TO BET THOSE I WOULD LAY THE HIGHER ODDS ON NYG UNDER 8.5...THINK YOU GOT A WINNER THERE...

BUF COULD WIN 5 GAMES.AND GET LUCKY ON THE 6TH GAME....BUT THE ODDS ARE HIGH (A RULE SOME WHERE NOT TO LAY OVER -160)...

YOU GOT THE RIGHT IDEAL...BUT I WOULD STAY AWAY FROM THOSE HIGH ODDS

AA

 

[ACE-ACE]

sorry to see this coming...NFL MIGHT GO iNTERNATIONAL

With in 5 years every team will play one game outside the usa...sad!!

The NFL will shut down the NFL Europa League in June

"you'd play 8 at home and 8 game away and one game Internationally"

GLAD THEY WILL PLAY 17 GAME SEASON VS A 16 GAME SEASON :thumbsup: ..BUT....HARDER TO CAP A GAME THAT COULD BE PLAYED IN lONDON OR MEXICO.....TIME THEY ARE A CHANGING!!!!

ACE-ACE

 

[joegaffney]

great info thanks gl jg

 

[ACE-ACE]

great info thanks gl jg

ALSO POSTED IT AT THE MAIN FORUM...LOTS OF FEED BACK

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=497214

 

[bigplay]

ACE: My book sets its season win totals higher than the totals you posted above. But as you know books don't give away ice in the winter. To make up for it they raise the odds substantially on the UNDER bet. For instance in your post above you had
Giants - Under 8.0 +100
Buffalo - Under 6.0 -115

My book had
Giants - Under 8.5 155/100
Buffalo - Under 6.5 180/100

I gave a lot of thought as to which numbers to use and finally decinded to lay the big odds and go Under the higher numbers. I still don't know if I did the right thing.
I'm interested in hearing anyone's thoughts on this.

SIA has Giants under 8.5 -120

 

[TomBrady#1]

Ace, do you agree that week one in the NFL can be very very tricky? It seems you never are sure what can happen and watch out week one? I have seen some strange things in week one but some disagree. Have you seen this and any thoughts?


Also Ace what is your view on preseason betting? DO you jump in, pick your spots, look for key info or go slow?


Thanks and looking forward to your specialty, the NFL.

Thanks and take care!


TB

 

[DukeSnider]

Ace, do you agree that week one in the NFL can be very very tricky? It seems you never are sure what can happen and watch out week one? I have seen some strange things in week one but some disagree. Have you seen this and any thoughts?


Also Ace what is your view on preseason betting? DO you jump in, pick your spots, look for key info or go slow?


Thanks and looking forward to your specialty, the NFL.

Thanks and take care!

Ace-Ace had a great 2006 NFL pre-seaon. :money8:
TB

:thumbsup:

 

[gabbana]

I really think the best two bets of the first week will be Pats and Jaguars, imo they will win by double digits.
Also some good upsets will be Chiefs, Dolphins and 49'ers with those small lines.

 

[pointshaver]

Week 2 NFL Regular Season Lines

Ace, Joe Gaffney and I are very impressed with your records. It's always good to know you're on the same side as us. Can i ask a favor. Joe's flying to Hollywood to film the 1st & 2nd week of the NFL regular season this week. Is it possible to get Week 2 NFL lines from you. We appreciate anything you can do. Thank You in advance. :money8: Point Shaver

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, do you agree that week one in the NFL can be very very tricky? It seems you never are sure what can happen and watch out week one? I have seen some strange things in week one but some disagree. Have you seen this and any thoughts?
Also Ace what is your view on preseason betting? DO you jump in, pick your spots, look for key info or go slow?
Thanks and looking forward to your specialty, the NFL.
TB

MY LINE DONT KICK IN UNTILL WEEK 3...SO YOU ARE RIGHT ITS ONLY BASE FOR ME ON WHO'S IN AND WHO'S OUT AND THE DRESS PLAY IN THE PRESEASON...MOST OF THE TEAM DONT CARE IF THEY WIN OR LOSE IN THE 1ST 2 GAMES..SO IT IS VERY TRICKY...FOR ME I TRY TO BET LESS THAN $500 A GAME...LAST YEAR IN PRESEASON I WON A LITTLE OVER $3000....PRE IS ABOUT TAKING A LOT OF NOTES!

ACE-ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

I really think the best two bets of the first week will be Pats and Jaguars, imo they will win by double digits.
Also some good upsets will be Chiefs, Dolphins and 49'ers with those small lines.

YOU MAY HAVE A GUT FEELING....BUT....ITS BASE ON LAST YEAR STATS....AND WE ALL KNOW LAST YEAR HAS NOTHER TO DO WITH THIS YEAR...I ALSO HAVE GUT FEELING ON WEEK 1 GAMES....BUT I WORK HARD FOR MY MONEY AND ONLY CAN PICK A GAME AFTER SEEING THEM AND OR READING THE STATS FOR A FEW GAMES BEFORE I CAN PUT MONEY ON A GAME.....ONLY TIME WILL TELL

BEST TO YOU

ACE-ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, Joe Gaffney and I are very impressed with your records. It's always good to know you're on the same side as us. Can i ask a favor. Joe's flying to Hollywood to film the 1st & 2nd week of the NFL regular season this week. Is it possible to get Week 2 NFL lines from you. We appreciate anything you can do. Thank You in advance. Point Shaver

DONT THINK I SAW WEEKS 2 LINES AS OF TODAY....IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT "MY LINE"....I NEED TWO WEEKS OF PRE AND ONE WEEK OF REG TO GET WEEK 2 LINES...AND THAT IS ONLY A 70% OF MY LINE...I NEED ONE MORE WEEK TO MAKE IT 100% ...THANKS FOR THE KIND WORDS...LET ME KNOW IF I CAN HELP

AA

 

[ACE-ACE]

Take Note...............

With Less Than 2 Weeks To Go Before Camp Is Open....st.l Have Lost A Member Of The Secondary....f.brown Was Suspended For 4 Games Of The Reg/season....key Man Out ...take Note!!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Foot Note.....they Make So Much Money To Do Dump Thing!!!!!

Miami Wr C.chambers Was Arrested Early Sat/day Impaired And Speeding.....show What This Guy Is About In Real Life...

 

[ACE-ACE]

FOOT NOTE

KC....J.ALLEN DE SUSPENDED FOR TWO GAMES DUI...:nono5:


ALSO


MY HOME TEAM DET....DT REDDING SIGN FOR 7 YEARS 49 MILLION...RICHEST DT IN THE LEAGUE....STARTING TO THINK THE LIONS CAN WIN 8 GAMES THIS YEAR!!!! THAT NOT THAT MUCH TO ASK IS IT

ACE-ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

Key changes and issues entering the 2007 NFL season part 1<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o> </o>
Full camp starts this week. Jobs will be won and lost throughout two-a-day, cut down and exhibition games. As a capper, you must keep track of all the ins and outs!!
<o> </o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">BALTIMORE</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
Ravens made a major change at quarterback. Bringing in veteran Steve Mcnair.This year It’s running back Willis McGhee coming from <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> to replace J.lewis.
Can McGhee Help? Ray Lewis, 32 isn’t getting any younger.
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">BUFFALO</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
1<SUP>ST</SUP> rounder Marsh awn Lynch is being asked to replace Willis McGhee as the primary rusher. QB Losman has the job to himself and is being counted on being a leader of this young squad.
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CINCINNATI</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
Top draft pick Leon Hall is expected to play a big role in the secondary. Off field behavior still is an issue. Hall is being counted on to help the league’s worst pass defense
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CLEVELAND</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
Got a good pick on draft day. Picking up Joe Thomas with the third pick, then trading up to get QB Brady Quinn in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round. How fast can the rookies- Thomas Quinn and the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> round pick Eric Wright at cornerback make significant contributions?
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">DENVER</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
Travis Henry figures to put up better numbers than predecessor Tat urn <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Bell</st1lace></st1:City>. An overhauled line could vault the defense to elite status. They have suffered a tragic off-season with the deaths of CB Darrent Williams and RB Damien Nash. The damage to the team’s psyche remains to be seen.
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">HOUSTON</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
Make over in Houston, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City> backup Qb Matt Schaub replacing David Carr. Veteran Ahman Green from GB comes in to help at running back. Will Gary Kubiak from <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Virginia</st1:State></st1lace> that was the back up QB to Michael Vick have a good year? 1<SUP>st</SUP> round pick Mario Williams will help a young defensive line.
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">INDIANAPOLIS</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
Key starters will be hard to replace, Cato June, Nick Harper and Jason David. Rookie Joseph Addai needs a good start. The team needs often injured safety Bob Sander to stay on the field.
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">JACKSONVILLE</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
Not many changes!!! They release safety Donovin Darius and replace him with 1<SUP>st</SUP> round pick Reggie Nelson. Byron Leftwich entering the final year of his contract.<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
more to come on KC-NE-NYJ-PIT-SD-TEN-OAK-MIA next Getting ready for another NFL season.


ACE-ACE