Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[rfb]

Thank you, makes total sense, just wanted to be sure. Also, in reading through the older posts I found 2 more "rules" mentioned that I didn't see the 1st time through:
1- I saw it mentioned that the lowest "lineoff" he uses going into week one is -10? For example, for for PITT I have pre 3 lineoff -18, pre 4 lineoff 9.5 which using the 75/25 i averaged to -11 for preseason. Should I have adjusted this up to -10?

2- I know that when comparing TIME you divide by 5; however I just saw it mentioned that if over 25 you divide by 10?

Please confirm at your convenience. I know many of you have used the lineoff tool for years, this is my 1st season with it; just want to make sure it's entirely accurate before putting it into action.

Maybe someone here who has pre 3/4 at 75/25, and weeks 1&2 done tomorrow can post their lineoff #'s for comparison? I'll be happy to share mine after tonite's game.

Thanks again for your help guys! @)

VV: i don't use the pre-season at all so those rules are wiped from my memory

yes...divide by 10 when time difference is greater than 25....also when line off is 50 or more divide that by 20 (up to 50 you divide by 10)

 

[rfb]

Here is what I came up with after week 1 (no pre-season and no points for homefield).

View attachment 10788

if you had played every one of the leans & plays based on your "myline" number you would have had 9 winners!!!

who knew?!

 

[aichdee]

if you had played every one of the leans & plays based on your "myline" number you would have had 9 winners!!!

who knew?!

Yeah, really!

We will see how reliable the myline is this year after week 4. I will post what I come up with each week for everyone to compare.

 

[VegasVixen]

Yeah I'm hoping Ace or Queen will chime in re: whether or not to use the pre 3&4. I have it all tallied properly, just saw something posted from a long time ago re: the cutoff of 10 (or maybe -10) for lineoff going into week 1. I have several teams outside of that parameter from preseason #'s. Seems evertime I re-read this thread I find something new!

 

[rfb]

Yeah I'm hoping Ace or Queen will chime in re: whether or not to use the pre 3&4. I have it all tallied properly, just saw something posted from a long time ago re: the cutoff of 10 (or maybe -10) for lineoff going into week 1. I have several teams outside of that parameter from preseason #'s. Seems evertime I re-read this thread I find something new!

ace uses pre-season...believe queen of hearts uses it as well....as the season progresses...ace sometimes takes a look at the last five games also just to see if current myline stats (most recent 5 games)have changed over the longer, full season stats...sometimes this can just give you a different perspective on a game..or see if a team is getting better or weaker as the seasons weras on

 

[aichdee]

Here is what I have for week 3 myline. Again, no preseason or points for home field.

 

[jasmine]

VV: i don't use the pre-season at all so those rules are wiped from my memory

yes...divide by 10 when time difference is greater than 25....also when line off is 50 or more divide that by 20 (up to 50 you divide by 10)

Hello, I just went back and read over myline 5 times and I can not find anywhere that Ace calculates time as you mentioned: time greater than 25 divide by 10, all I can see is that Ace calculates time divided by 5. Can Queen of Hearts or Ace validify this ? :think2::think2::think2::think2:hno:##) Thanks

 

[VegasVixen]

Jas;

I just found the 10 point cutoff thing - post 269 by Ace in this thread. I'm still looking for the TIME rule - I know it's in here I saw it this past weekend...

 

[VegasVixen]

For Lineoff, if the difference between the 2 teams is above 50, you divide by 20. Otherwise, divide by 10.

For T.O.P., over 25, divide by 10. Otherwise, just 5.

For Penalty yards, divide by 100 always.

Found it Jas:

Post #106

 

[jasmine]

QOH or ACE, another time question how is the time calculated when a game goes into overtime? thanks

 

[VegasVixen]

Here is what I have for week 3 myline. Again, no preseason or points for home field.

View attachment 10830

OK here's week 3 myline, using pre3 &pre4 averaged at 75/25, then adjusting any lineoff of >-10or +10 to 10 at the start of reg season. No homefield factored.




I think Jas is doing it the same way as me so I'm hoping we can compare...

 

[VegasVixen]

.blah double posted - sry!

 

[rfb]

QOH or ACE, another time question how is the time calculated when a game goes into overtime? thanks

jasmine....i can only tell you what i do....if the game goes 7 minutes into ot....i take the total game time as 67 minutes...the halfway point would be 33:30....so if team A was 31:30 they would be -2 ...team B would be +2 35:30..

i take 30 sec as .5 50 sec as .833 etc etc etc

 

[SaintsFan1977]

This is what I get. I don't know if my numbers are different from using different lines or my calculations are off but I think my numbers are correct. I used preseason 3&4 75%,25% with no added point for home field.

View attachment 10834

 

[rfb]

This is what I get. I don't know if my numbers are different from using different lines or my calculations are off but I think my numbers are correct. I used preseason 3&4 75%,25% with no added point for home field.

View attachment 10834

the numbers i see that the two of you have posted have enough differences to be looked into...the ones that are close there is no need...but nyg, buff, cinci, kc, hous, phil, den and oak should not be that far apart...this early in the season

 

[SaintsFan1977]

Ok, I deleted preseason numbers on a few that were different from VV and they check perfectly with what aichdee has. I don't know if VV's calculations or wrong or not but I do feel comfortable in what I see with my numbers.

NYG is 0.5 even using preseason with what I get,
Cin is 6.7 or 7 with no pre season and 3.8 or 4 with preseason.
BUF is .8 or 1 with no preseason and .5 with preseason

 

[SaintsFan1977]

With the exception of HOU which I get 1.5 no preseason and 5 with it.

 

[aichdee]

With the exception of HOU which I get 1.5 no preseason and 5 with it.

Can you post the numbers you have for Houston that you came up with 1.5 with no preseason. I would like to check them against mine.

 

[VegasVixen]

Saintsfan, please take a look & compare...
I have to guess our discrepancy is in the LINEOFF so here's my work for lineoff pre3 thru week 2.
Thanks again!

 

[ACE-ACE]

For Lineoff, if the difference between the 2 teams is above 50, you divide by 2 than you divide by 10.
...so if it 60 div by 2=30 than divide by 10=3 points