ACE-kinda related to email of u got about key #'s in NBA.
here's something for NFL and is this type of thing that could somehow be used for formula of other sports?
in all games since 1989, the team with more rushing attempts is
3223-7494 SU/ 2909-952-115 ats
now this doesnt really help much unless your able to acuratly predict which team will have more att. kinda see it as chicken vs egg, which came 1st.
do teams win and cover because they run the ball more or
does team have more att because they get the lead and holding onto win
here's something for NFL and is this type of thing that could somehow be used for formula of other sports?
in all games since 1989, the team with more rushing attempts is
3223-7494 SU/ 2909-952-115 ats
now this doesnt really help much unless your able to acuratly predict which team will have more att. kinda see it as chicken vs egg, which came 1st.
do teams win and cover because they run the ball more or
does team have more att because they get the lead and holding onto win
ACE - I believe this system will also work in college football. However,would there have to be some kind of home field advantage thrown into the system? Also, because there are so many teams you would have to have people just doing certain conferences - but I believe it will work! Whats your opinion?
BlueLab said:
I KNOW OF TWO PEOPLE THAT IS GOING TO TRY THIS ON A SPREADSHEET.....ONE BUTTON UPDATES...WILL MAKE IT EASY
ALL OF TEAM...SO THIS IS THE WAY TO GO
IN THE NFL THERE ARE NO HOME ADVANTAGE....IF WE DO PUT A HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE IN IT WOULD BE 0-2....
EVERY YEAR IN THE NFL ITS BALANCE HOME WAS 129 VS AWAY 127 VS ATS...
some #'s from espn article about myth/truths of win% related to certain stats. know your solid on football system and dont need to change it up, but thought this kinda similar and some may be interested.
team with:
fewer penalties win 54%
higher avg yard per rush att win 55%
300+yd passer win 46%
special team TD win 42%
these just for 03-04 season:
trail at end of 1st Q, lose 75%
more giveaways, lose 81%
allow 100+yd rusher, lose 75%
allow more sacks, lose 70%
worse time of pss, lose 67%
team with:
fewer penalties win 54%
higher avg yard per rush att win 55%
300+yd passer win 46%
special team TD win 42%
these just for 03-04 season:
trail at end of 1st Q, lose 75%
more giveaways, lose 81%
allow 100+yd rusher, lose 75%
allow more sacks, lose 70%
worse time of pss, lose 67%
newb411breaker19 said:
2004-2005 I WAS 25-16 IN THE OVER $2000 BET AND WON $28,830
SO IF A UNIT IS =TO $100...I GUESS I WAS +2883 UNITS UP
2005-2006 (LAST YEAR) I WAS 36-18 IN THE OVER $2000 BETS
AND 63-51 IN THE UNDER $1100 BET...TOTAL WAS $59,141
SO I GUESS YOU COULD SAY I WAS UP +5914 UNITS
ALL THIS WAS POSTED HERE AT THERX
LAST 12 YEAR I'M 10-2
I'M HAPPY TO WIN $10K ANY YEAR!!!!
IF YOU ARE IN IT FOR THE LONG RUN....IT DOES NOT MATTER
JUST WANT TO WIN MORE THAN I LOSE:thumbsup2:
ACE-ACE
ACE-ACE said:FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->ITS BASE ON FOUR THING
1..LINE-OFF
2..TIME
3..PENALTIES
4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM
LINE-OFF
THE DIFF BETWEEN WHAT THE ODDS MAKER GIVE AND WHAT REALLY HAPPENS
LET'S TAKE(LAST WEEK GAME BETWEEN GB AND ATL....
THE LINE WAS ATL-9.....WHAT HAPPEN WAS GB WON BY 8+THE LINE9=17
"THE LINE WAS OFF 17 POINTS
THIS HAPPENS EACH WEEK AND EACH GAME
SO YOU GIVE GB A +17 IN THEIR WEEK AND YOU GIVE ATL -17 IN THEIR WEEK.....YOU DO THIS EVERY WEEK
THIS IS ATL............TOTAL
PRESEASON +10
WK1............+ 6........+16
WK2............-2..........+14
WK3............+10.......+24
WK4............+14.......+38
WK5...........-6...........+32
WK6...........-3...........+29
WK7...........+6...........+35
WK8...........BYE
WK9............+5.........+40
WK10..........-17........+23
GB ....DOING THE SAME THING TO THEM IS A +44
SO YOU FIND THE DIFF/ +44 +23 = 21 FOR GB(HIGHEST NUMBER GETS THE POINTS)....THAN YOU DIV BY 10= 2.1 POINT FOR GB (ONE RULE DIFF....IF ITS OVER 50 POINTS /DIFF YOU DIV IT IN HALF...THAN DIV IT BY 100)
THAT MEAN BASE ONLY ON "LINE-OFF G.B IS FAV BY 2.1 POINTS
TIME
IF ONE TEAM HAS 32 MIN THAT THE O-LINE STAYS ON THE FIELD THEY HAVE A +2.....THE OTHER TEAM HAS A -2
DO THAT EACH WEEK......AS OF WEEK 10 GB IS +6 VS ATL+3=3 FOR GB DIV BY 5=.6 FOR GB
ADD THAT TO LINE-OFF 2.1 + .6 = 2.7 THATS GB IS FAV BY WITH JUST TWO OF THE 4 THING!!!!
PENALTIES
THIS ONE IS EASY
ATL HAS 615 YDS VS GB 618 YDS =3 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE)
NOW YOU DIV THAT BY 100 =0 IN THIS CASE(IF IT WAS 150YDS DIFF...IT WOULD MEAN A 1 1/2 FOR ATL....BUT ITS NOT)
TURN OVERS
GB AFTER WEEK 10 HAS 22 VS ATL THAT HAS 15 = 7 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE) YOU DIV THAT BY 3 =2.3 FOR ATL
SO
IF THIS GAME WAS PLAYED THIS WEEK (WEEK 11)
YOU WOULD
LINE-OFF G.B 2.1
TIME G.B 0.6
PEN.............EV
T/O.........ATL 2.3
DO THE MATH AND YOU GET GB FAV BY .4.....OR ROUND UP OR DOWN
GB -1/2.....IF THEY PLAY IN GB GB WOULD BE -1......IF THEY PLAY AT ATL IT WOULD BE A PK GAME
THIS IS HOW I GET "MY LINE"......I HAVE WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEARS....MOST OF THE TIME 80% THE LINE IS RIGHT ON BY 1-2 POINTS.....THE ONES THAT ARE 6 POINTS OR MORE I LOOK AT CLOSER
THIS ONLY TELL YOU WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS....YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE OTHER CAPPING.....MATCH UP....RY....PY....GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....D-LINE.... O-LINE....SO ON ...ECT....
SOME OF YOU WANTED TO KNOW HOW I GET IT SO LET THE ????? BEGAIN.....THIS IS NOT THAT HARD!!!!
THE LAST 11YEARS I HAVE DONE THIS I WON 9 YEARS AND LOST 2
1998 I LOST -$35,555.00.....IN 2001 I LOST $14,105.00... THE OTHER WINNING YEARS WAS BETWEEN $6500 TO $56,000
56K WAS IN 2002...
LAST YEAR ONE OF THE POSTER AT THERX,WORK WITH ME TO PUT THIS ON A SPEADSHEET.. IT TOOK A FEW MO'S FOR THIS TO WORK FOR HIM.... DONT ASK THEM FOR ONE!!!! THIS IS ABOUT DOING IT ON PAPER!!!!
MY HOPE IS TO TEACH THIS SO YOU DONT NEED ME ANY MORE....I'M OVER 50 YEARS OLD AND STILL HAVE 30 MORE GOOD YEARS AHEAD OF ME.....
WHY DID YOU DO IT THIS WAY...
THIS DONT WORK WITH "TIME" OR "LINE-OFF"....OR EVEN PENALTIES???
I HAVE ADJUSTED THIS OVER AND OVER TO COME UP WITH FORMULA
THIS THREAD IS ONLY FOR PLAYERS THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW IT WORKS
ACE-ACE
<!-- / message -->
Loves your pick
ACE-ACE said:FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">
THIS IS HOW I GET "MY LINE"......I HAVE WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEARS....MOST OF THE TIME 80% THE LINE IS RIGHT ON BY 1-2 POINTS.....THE ONES THAT ARE 6 POINTS OR MORE I LOOK AT CLOSER
THIS ONLY TELL YOU WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS....YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE OTHER CAPPING.....MATCH UP....RY....PY....GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....D-LINE.... O-LINE....SO ON ...ECT....
ACE-ACE
<!-- / message -->
Ace Ace first off I want to say thank you for the lessons and time that you have dedicated to helping people out.
I have been spending time learning this and going through last years results and doing a "MY LINE" to get a better knowledge during the offseason as well I am looking to create a spreadsheet as time permits in the next 5 months. I love the idea for college football as I see that there would be a huge market for games that have value week in and week out due to the amount of games.
I was wondering if you can touch on the subject of how you factor in the rest of the capping after you find a value of +6.
Is there more formulas input into this or are these factors more of "gut predictions" on your part? Do you factor in Injuries as well?
Thank you ACE-ACE
FullyEclipsed said:
ONCE I FIND A GAME WITH +6 VALUE.....I TAKE THE 16 GAMES A WEEK AND YOU FIND ONLY 5 OF THEM AND GIVE EACH OF THOSE GAME A GOOD 1 1/2 HOURS OF CAPPING ALL PARTS OF THE GAME... THERE ARE TIMES THAT I SEE 5 WITH VALUE OF +6 AND ONLY BET 3 OF THEM
I DO A THING CALL DIFF/TEAMS PLAY DIFF!!! VS DIFF TEAMS....OR YOU COULD CALL IT MATCH-UP....HOW ONE TEAM PLAYS VS ANOTHER TEAM...
I THAN LOOK AT" TIME"....THIS SHOWS HOW A TIME PLAYS (ONE TEAM IS -10 IN TIME VS ANOTHER TEAM WITH +10 ...THIS TELL ME ONE OF THE TEAMS RUNS AND CONTROL THE BALL MORE....
THE TEAM WITH +10 AND SCORE MORE OR LESS
THE TEAM WITH -10 AND SCORE MORE OR LESS
BOTH TELL ME HOW THEY PLAY AND WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN IN A GAME....PLUS YOU HAVE TO DO INJURIES...AND THE NUMBER ONE THING I LOOK AT IS T/O....IF ONE CAN ONLY KNOW WHAT TEAM WILL TURN OVER THE BALL MORE... YOU WILL WIN 80% OF YOUR GAME.....BUT....YOU CAN ONLY DO IT FROM THE GAMES PAST PLAYED!!!....NOW TOSS IN RY...PY...GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....COACHING....HOME...SO ...ON...ECT...
PUT EVERY THING TOGETHER AND YOU HAVE MY PICK
THE 1ST PART IS EASY....YOU CAN GET TO KNOW HOW YOU GET THE VALUE OF +6 (THAT'S 50% OF IT)....THE OTHER 50% IS A ART OF CAPPING AND IT HARD TO TEACH.....SEEING ALL THIS JUST COME TOGETHER IN MY MIND....THAN......I SEE HOW MUCH TO BET.....WEAKER +6 VALUE IS UNDER $1000 BETS.....THE BEST ONES ARE OVER $2000
ONE COULD BE 50/50 ON THERE BETS...AND IF YOU PUT THE MONEY ON THE RIGHT GAMES YOU COULD BE UP A LOT!!!!
AS MY RECORD SHOW YOU
OVER $2000 BETS WAS 36-18 66% OR +$44K VS
UNDER 1100 BETS WAS 57-47 54% OR +$10K
SOME YEAR I'M HAPPY WITH THE ACTION BETS(UNDER $1100 TO BE EVEN)
YOU ASK ME IF I FACTOR "GUTS IN TO MY GAME"......AS YOU SEE ITS THE LAST 50% OF CAPPING A GAME IS THE HARDEST PART ALONE WITH MONEY MANAGEMENT......TO ANSWER THIS ...I THINK I LIKE TO CALL IT
GUT CALCULATING ....
IS IT A FORMULA?
YES
CAN YOU PUT IT ON A SPREADSHEET AND MAKE IT EASY?
NO
IT TAKE WORK!!! AND KNOWING HOW THE ODDS MAKER DO A LINE
ALL THIS IS FACTOR
WOULD LIKE YOUR FEED BACK
BEST TO YOU
ACE-ACE
ACE-ACE said:
Thank you for the response.
I want to make sure I understand the Diff teams play Diff Teams to help understand how they play.
Are you saying that you look at how teams play against a certain styles of teams.
So lets just say this for an example:
Atlanta is a Value of +10
They are playing against a 3-4 defense in the matchup I am looking at. Lets say I go back through their "My Line" and figure that against the 3-4 they tend to have more turnovers and less time on the field and their overall numbers for the year are skewed because when they play against the 4-3 they are much more dominant making the +10 a much less value for the game I am looking at?
Also other styles like how they matchup against passing teams vs. running teams on the defensive side.
Is this the right track?
On the "my line" turnovers that get entered each week is this a number that you are adding and subtracting from?
Meaning is this a turnover difference or is this just to keep track of the turnovers that happen for the offense?
Example using the TO difference
So if Dal was +2 and Atl was -10 = +12 for Dal Divide by 3 = 4 for Dal
Example using just TO
Dal -8 and Atl -15 = 7 for Dal divide by 3 = 2.3 for Dal
Just want to make sure that I am using the correct way because it will make a big difference.
Thank you ACE-ACE
And trust me I know that a lot of work goes into capping I am not looking for a magic button to do the work for me. But it is great to learn new methods and step my abilities up every season and that is why I appreciate your input a ton!
FullyEclipsed
FullyEclipsed said:
GOOD JOB....YOU ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK!!!!
THE T/O ARE ONLY GIVEAWAY ...SO THERE IS NEVER A PLUS VS A MINUS
IF DALLAS HAS 4 LAST WEEK THAN TWO THIS WEEK THAN THEY WOULD HAVE A TOTAL OF 6.....IF THE OTHER TEAM HAD 18 TOTAL(LETS SAY DET).....YOU WOULD DO THE DIFF...= 12 FOR DALLAS DIV BY 3 = 4
THE TAKEWAYS I LOOK AT IF "MY LINE PICK THE GAME FOR A PLAY"
I'M ALWAY HERE TO HELP
ACE-ACE
