Exbookie playoff thread...let's talk

[ACE-ACE]

Ace I'm curious any theory on what went wrong with the 411 system this season after being so hot the past two years and have you considered just losing the system and going back to basics with "my line" that has proven itself over the past 18 years? I always enjoy reading your plays and wish you all the best. MB

it did better after week 11 going 13-10-1....I have learn this year not to start with week 1-2....as in all system you need a few weeks of stat to make it work......maybe it was because of the lockout and we did not have preseason!!...all I can do is learn and move on...if the system dont do 58% or higher next year I will adjust and make the other views like "myline" have more value. Still a 4 year record that did 64% is one I want to keep around.
Ace

 

[DukeSnider]

Speaking of the "big game" I'm always amazed how everyone wants to bet on the SB.It's almost like everyone wants to get drunk on New Years eve....amateur night..I'd rather that you release a BB pick than a SB play. Typically all the pro handicappers release their GOY and they are equally divided on each side,and can make a rational arguement for their pick, so we might as well just flip a coin if we want action on the game.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Speaking of the "big game" I'm always amazed how everyone wants to bet on the SB.It's almost like everyone wants to get drunk on New Years eve....amateur night..I'd rather that you release a BB pick than a SB play. Typically all the pro handicappers release their GOY and they are equally divided on each side,and can make a rational arguement for their pick, so we might as well just flip a coin if we want action on the game.

100% right..my wife has a pick on the game...haha.....for me it will be one bet and by saying that...it's the best one I can see

 

[GBPACKERFAN]

Ace, can you comment or add/clarify. thanks

Is it true the books want to get (as close as possible) 50-50 action on each side with the idea they don't care who covers and who doesn't cover?
Or do the books set the line with the intent they want the action of at least 60(+)-40 on one side and then they do care who covers?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, can you comment or add/clarify. thanks

Is it true the books want to get (as close as possible) 50-50 action on each side with the idea they don't care who covers and who doesn't cover?
Or do the books set the line with the intent they want the action of at least 60(+)-40 on one side and then they do care who covers?

Most books want 50-50...small books for sure because they dont have a lot of money....when I was booking I knew other books I could layoff action to make my 50-50....
But
I never did that. Its about beating the players for me....I knew the ones to watch and I adjust there line and that help make them even for the year or lose. with only 5%
of the bettor winning over the long haul...I keep all the action...some games was 80-20...but at the end of the season I alway won.

The bigger the sportbook the more they dont care ....they play games with the line like Pinny does...you will pay more Vig if you want this side...after they are close to 50-50...the same team goes from -3.5 at -130 to -3.5 -105...you just got to wait it out if that is the only book you have. Alway good to have 5 or more books...than you can shop for the best "vir" or "line"