As you see it's on the bottom
final number 9 year record here on therx
TWO WAYS I BET...ACTION UNDER $800 AND INVESTMENT $2000 -$5000
...............ACTION...................INVESTMENT............TOTAL
2004-05 ...36-34 +$400......... 25-16 +$28,400..........+$28,800.00
2005-06...63-51 +$14,035......36-18 +$44,181...........+$58,216.00
2006-07...62-71 -$8,942........19-22 -$11,390...........-$20,332.00
2007-08...37-37 -$2389..........26-26 +$5,857...........+$4,471.00
2008-09..45-42 +$1,117.........22-18 +$6,182............+$7,299.00
2009-10 ..57-45 +$7800......... 20-15 +$9,910..........+$17,710.00
2009-10 contest.....................2-0 +$29680..Total +$47,390.00
buy in for the hilton 1/2 -$750
2010-2011 INV 23-10-3 +$27,491.00
ACTION WAS 44-39 +$2420.00............67-49-3 +$29,911.00
buy in for me 1/2 -$750
2011-12....42-37 +$1125...................20-17 +$4880................62-54-2 $6005.00
5th place in the hilton contest 1/4 winner $6875 1-0....................TOTAL +$12880.00
buy in for hilton -$375
2012-13....47-46-1 -$1923...............16-8-2 +$15,555...........63-53-3 +$13,632.00
TOTAL ACTION .......433-402 +$24,974.00
TOTAL INVESTMENT.210-150 +$170,051.00 THE ONES THAT COUNT 58%
TOTAL...................... 643-552 +$195,025.00 54%
buy in fee's for contest...................-$1875.00
TOTAL................................ +$193,150.00
ROLLOVER MONEY IS OVER $20K
BEST TO ALL
ACE
final number 9 year record here on therx
TWO WAYS I BET...ACTION UNDER $800 AND INVESTMENT $2000 -$5000
...............ACTION...................INVESTMENT............TOTAL
2004-05 ...36-34 +$400......... 25-16 +$28,400..........+$28,800.00
2005-06...63-51 +$14,035......36-18 +$44,181...........+$58,216.00
2006-07...62-71 -$8,942........19-22 -$11,390...........-$20,332.00
2007-08...37-37 -$2389..........26-26 +$5,857...........+$4,471.00
2008-09..45-42 +$1,117.........22-18 +$6,182............+$7,299.00
2009-10 ..57-45 +$7800......... 20-15 +$9,910..........+$17,710.00
2009-10 contest.....................2-0 +$29680..Total +$47,390.00
buy in for the hilton 1/2 -$750
2010-2011 INV 23-10-3 +$27,491.00
ACTION WAS 44-39 +$2420.00............67-49-3 +$29,911.00
buy in for me 1/2 -$750
2011-12....42-37 +$1125...................20-17 +$4880................62-54-2 $6005.00
5th place in the hilton contest 1/4 winner $6875 1-0....................TOTAL +$12880.00
buy in for hilton -$375
2012-13....47-46-1 -$1923...............16-8-2 +$15,555...........63-53-3 +$13,632.00
TOTAL ACTION .......433-402 +$24,974.00
TOTAL INVESTMENT.210-150 +$170,051.00 THE ONES THAT COUNT 58%
TOTAL...................... 643-552 +$195,025.00 54%
buy in fee's for contest...................-$1875.00
TOTAL................................ +$193,150.00
ROLLOVER MONEY IS OVER $20K
BEST TO ALL
ACE
Can you tell me what you think? Thanks!
| TOTAL QB SACKS BY: BOTH TEAMS OVER-UNDER 4.5 |
| TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) OVER-UNDER 209.5 |
| TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: PEYTON MANNING (DEN) OVER-UNDER 290.5 |
| FIRST SCORE WILL BE: FIELD GOAL/SAFETY |
| FIRST SCORE WILL BE: TOUCHDOWN |
| TOTAL POINTS FIRST QUARTER: OVER UNDER 10 |
| TOTAL POINT 2ND QUARTER: OVER UNDER 14 |
| TOTAL POINTS 3RD QUARTER: OVER UNDER 10 |
| TOTAL POINTS 4TH QUARTER: OVER UNDER 13 |
Last edited:
| TOTAL QB SACKS BY: BOTH TEAMS OVER-UNDER 4.5.....hard one |
| TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) OVER-UNDER 209.5..........under |
| TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: PEYTON MANNING (DEN) OVER-UNDER 290.5........hard one...close to the number |
| FIRST SCORE WILL BE: FIELD GOAL/SAFETY........FG. 1st |
| FIRST SCORE WILL BE: TOUCHDOWN |
| TOTAL POINTS FIRST QUARTER: OVER UNDER 10....on the number |
| TOTAL POINT 2ND QUARTER: OVER UNDER 14.....under |
| TOTAL POINTS 3RD QUARTER: OVER UNDER 10....over |
| TOTAL POINTS 4TH QUARTER: OVER UNDER 13.......hard one |
| Thanks!.....Quick response!!....here's what I was thinking TOTAL QB SACKS BY: BOTH TEAMS OVER-UNDER 4.5.....hard one---Under |
| TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) OVER-UNDER 209.5..........under---agree under |
| TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: PEYTON MANNING (DEN) OVER-UNDER 290.5........hard one...close to the number---Over-but unsure |
| FIRST SCORE WILL BE: FIELD GOAL/SAFETY........FG. 1st---yes! |
| FIRST SCORE WILL BE: TOUCHDOWN |
| TOTAL POINTS FIRST QUARTER: OVER UNDER 10....on the number---Under |
| TOTAL POINT 2ND QUARTER: OVER UNDER 14.....under---Over...oh oh. |
| TOTAL POINTS 3RD QUARTER: OVER UNDER 10....over---Under...oh oh. |
| TOTAL POINTS 4TH QUARTER: OVER UNDER 13.......hard one..if anything, I'd say over. More desperation plays, long passes. |
[h=1]How Sharps are Betting the Super Bowl[/h]
It can be very difficult to pin down exactly what the sharps are betting in the Super Bowl each year because Wise Guy action is dwarfed by public action in raw dollars. Plus, given the tendency of sharps to fade the squares (the public), Wise Guy money often saves one last salvo for the game day hours leading right up to the Super Bowl.
We’ve talked with multiple sources on both sides of the line repeatedly since the matchup of Seattle vs. Denver was locked way back on Championship Sunday. Here’s what we’re confident of at publication time…
SUNDAY 6:30 P.M. ET: SEATTLE VS. DENVER
Sharps preferring Denver have already bet. They got in early when the first numbers went up around pick-em. Those who were very confident of Denver beating New England in the AFC Championship game were betting “the AFC” as an underdog vs. “the NFC” in early-bird options even before Championship Sunday.
Those who like Denver, are in at:
Denver pick-em
Denver -1
Denver -1.5
Now, the market price did move all the way to -2 and -2.5. The later moves were generated mostly by public action. Squares love betting on Peyton Manning. And, Denver looked more impressive offensively in its championship matchup than Seattle did. Anybody who wanted Denver (even squares) knew they wanted to get their money in under a field goal.
Those who like Seattle haven’t bet yet!
Obviously, if you think the underdog is the right side in a game that’s going to have extremely heavy betting action on the favorite, you wait for as long as you can to see what kind of price you can get. We’re hearing from a variety of insiders that Seattle money would come in HUGE at +3. Sportsbooks know this, and are hesitant to test the key number unless they’re sure more square money is coming in through the weekend at a price that high.
Will Seattle money settle for +2.5? If they must, they will. While +3 is obviously much better percentage-wise because any 3-point scoreboard los would be a push…sharps who like Seattle had a grading themselves near pick-em. A line of +2.5 and +2 still offers some value.
You’re been hearing reports from Las Vegas for several days that the market has been very one-sided with Denver action. Just remember this is NATURAL! There’s been no reason for Seattle money to bet yet.
What will happen over the weekend? The best guess from insiders is that squares will stick with Denver at -2.5, and probably -3. But, the market would be flooded with Seattle money at +3. Each sportsbook must decide what kind of exposure they want on the game. Do they want to take a position against the public and root for Seattle with the 11/10 in their favor? Or, do they want to create a potential headache on the key number of three where a push would pay off early Denver betters but refund everybody who bet over the weekend?
We haven’t talked about the weather yet. Sharps generally think bad weather helps Seattle, while calm, clear conditions help Denver. This will be part of the mix as well. Should weather be an issue Sunday evening, sharps may come in much stronger on +2.5 of +2 than they otherwise would have. And, they’d definitely be looking to play two-team teasers with Seattle +8 or +8.5 and the Under. You longtime readers know that the Wise Guys like playing teasers when the six-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7 in one fell swoop.
Speaking of the total, sharps haven’t been interested in getting involved early at all because weather could be such a big factor. The number as we put this report together is hopping between 47 and 47.5. We understand that the quants made the game 46…but are waiting to see if they can get a 48 before hitting the Under. They know the public likes betting Overs in Super Bowls. If the weather forecast is confirmed for wind and/or precipitation, quants and other sharps would hit the Under at 46 or more…and possibly even at 45 if the conditions look to be extreme.
It can be very difficult to pin down exactly what the sharps are betting in the Super Bowl each year because Wise Guy action is dwarfed by public action in raw dollars. Plus, given the tendency of sharps to fade the squares (the public), Wise Guy money often saves one last salvo for the game day hours leading right up to the Super Bowl.
We’ve talked with multiple sources on both sides of the line repeatedly since the matchup of Seattle vs. Denver was locked way back on Championship Sunday. Here’s what we’re confident of at publication time…
SUNDAY 6:30 P.M. ET: SEATTLE VS. DENVER
Sharps preferring Denver have already bet. They got in early when the first numbers went up around pick-em. Those who were very confident of Denver beating New England in the AFC Championship game were betting “the AFC” as an underdog vs. “the NFC” in early-bird options even before Championship Sunday.
Those who like Denver, are in at:
Denver pick-em
Denver -1
Denver -1.5
Now, the market price did move all the way to -2 and -2.5. The later moves were generated mostly by public action. Squares love betting on Peyton Manning. And, Denver looked more impressive offensively in its championship matchup than Seattle did. Anybody who wanted Denver (even squares) knew they wanted to get their money in under a field goal.
Those who like Seattle haven’t bet yet!
Obviously, if you think the underdog is the right side in a game that’s going to have extremely heavy betting action on the favorite, you wait for as long as you can to see what kind of price you can get. We’re hearing from a variety of insiders that Seattle money would come in HUGE at +3. Sportsbooks know this, and are hesitant to test the key number unless they’re sure more square money is coming in through the weekend at a price that high.
Will Seattle money settle for +2.5? If they must, they will. While +3 is obviously much better percentage-wise because any 3-point scoreboard los would be a push…sharps who like Seattle had a grading themselves near pick-em. A line of +2.5 and +2 still offers some value.
You’re been hearing reports from Las Vegas for several days that the market has been very one-sided with Denver action. Just remember this is NATURAL! There’s been no reason for Seattle money to bet yet.
What will happen over the weekend? The best guess from insiders is that squares will stick with Denver at -2.5, and probably -3. But, the market would be flooded with Seattle money at +3. Each sportsbook must decide what kind of exposure they want on the game. Do they want to take a position against the public and root for Seattle with the 11/10 in their favor? Or, do they want to create a potential headache on the key number of three where a push would pay off early Denver betters but refund everybody who bet over the weekend?
We haven’t talked about the weather yet. Sharps generally think bad weather helps Seattle, while calm, clear conditions help Denver. This will be part of the mix as well. Should weather be an issue Sunday evening, sharps may come in much stronger on +2.5 of +2 than they otherwise would have. And, they’d definitely be looking to play two-team teasers with Seattle +8 or +8.5 and the Under. You longtime readers know that the Wise Guys like playing teasers when the six-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7 in one fell swoop.
Speaking of the total, sharps haven’t been interested in getting involved early at all because weather could be such a big factor. The number as we put this report together is hopping between 47 and 47.5. We understand that the quants made the game 46…but are waiting to see if they can get a 48 before hitting the Under. They know the public likes betting Overs in Super Bowls. If the weather forecast is confirmed for wind and/or precipitation, quants and other sharps would hit the Under at 46 or more…and possibly even at 45 if the conditions look to be extreme.
We are just a day away from the Super Bowl, our nation’s newest national holiday and the Greatest Gambling Day on the sports calendar. Tens of thousands of people are flooding Las Vegas this weekend and every one of them has dreams of cracking the sportsbooks with a genius Super Bowl wager.
People love betting on the Super Bowl because they want to feel like they are part of the action. They want to be involved in the spectacle. That lust for inclusion, for some fleeting connection to this cultural phenomenon, often drives out reason and common sense in people.
You don't have to bet if you don't see the edge.
People love betting on the Super Bowl because they want to feel like they are part of the action. They want to be involved in the spectacle. That lust for inclusion, for some fleeting connection to this cultural phenomenon, often drives out reason and common sense in people.
You don't have to bet if you don't see the edge.
Everyone knows that when it comes to gambling The House Always Wins. However, we now have empirical proof that, in regards to the Super Bowl – the biggest sports betting event in the country – The House doesn’t always win.
They just win a statistically overwhelming amount of times and an astronomical amount of profit.
The Super Bowl will take place on Sunday, Feb. 2 in MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, pitting Seattle against Denver. According to published online reports, more than $8 billion was bet on the Super Bowl last year and even more wagering is expected this year.
Of course, the real number of dollars bet on the Super Bowl is impossible to pin down because of offshore books and illegal gambling channels. However, Raphael Esparza, also known as the Vegas Sports Informer and a former Las Vegas sportsbook manager, sent me the following chart from the Nevada Gaming Control Board. It breaks down how much money has been legally wagered on the Super Bowl in the state’s sportsbooks over the last 19 years. The chart also shows how much money the sportsbooks, collectively, won and what their net profit percentage for each Super Bowl has been:
YEAR
MATCHUP
WAGERED
NET PROFIT
WIN %
2013
Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31
$98,936,798
$7,206,460
7.30%
2012
N.Y. Giants 21, New England 17
$93,899,840
$5,064,470
5.40%
2011
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25
$87,491,098
$724,176
0.83%
2010
New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17
$82,726,367
$6,857,101
8.30%
2009
Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
$81,514,748
$6,678,044
8.20%
2008
N.Y. Giants 17, New England 14
$92,055,833
($2,573,103)
-2.80%
2007
Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
$93,067,358
$12,930,175
13.90%
2006
Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
$94,534,372
$8,828,431
9.30%
2005
New England 24, Philadelphia 21
$90,759,236
$15,430,138
17.00%
2004
New England 32, Carolina 29
$81,242,191
$12,440,698
15.30%
2003
Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
$71,693,032
$5,264,963
7.30%
2002
New England 20, St. Louis 17
$71,513,304
$2,331,607
3.30%
2001
Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7
$67,661,425
$11,002,636
16.30%
2000
St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
$71,046,751
$4,237,978
6.00%
1999
Denver 34, Atlanta 19
$75,986,520
$2,906,601
3.80%
1998
Denver 31, Green Bay 24
$77,253,246
$472,033
0.60%
1997
Green Bay 35, New England 21
$70,853,211
$2,265,701
3.20%
1996
Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
$70,907,801
$7,126,145
10.10%
1995
San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
$69,591,818
($396,674)
-0.60%
$1,542,734,949
$108,797,580
7.00%
As you can see, the books have only failed to post a profit on the Super Bowl twice in the last two decades. (See – The House doesn’t ALWAYS win!) And in both instances their losses were nominal.
The rest of the time? Yeah, the sportsbooks are kicking your ass.
Over $1.5 billion has been wagered legally in the state over the last 19 years and the books have turned that into over $100 million in profit. To be honest, I was actually expecting their rake to be even larger.
Las Vegas sportsbooks have actually taken a loss on the straight side bets in several Super Bowls over the past two decades. But the reason that they still show a profit so consistently on Super Sunday is simple.
“The books bank on all the prop bets and all the futures tickets,” said Esparza. “(Even) if you get crushed on the game (there’s still) all the prop bets and futures tickets.”
There has been a 42 percent increase in the amount wagered on the Super Bowl between 1995 and 2013. Some of that can be chalked up to inflation, I suppose. But it is not a coincidence that prop betting has become more popular and become more sophisticated during that same span.
Now, just because Las Vegas sportsbooks nearly always show a profit that doesn’t mean individual bettors can’t turn a profit as well. I am certain that you or your friends or someone you know has some good stories about hitting big on Super Bowl Sunday. I have turned a profit in five straight Super Bowls myself, and I have hit some major scores during that time.
But the fact is that winning in the short term or earning some anecdotal wins is one thing. Consistently beating the books in the marquee gambling event of the year is something else entirely.
“I tell people, ‘It is still ONE football game’”, Esparza added. “If you are looking to hit it big on one game you are better off throwing your money in the toilet and flushing it.
“Bet it smart or just pass!”
They just win a statistically overwhelming amount of times and an astronomical amount of profit.
The Super Bowl will take place on Sunday, Feb. 2 in MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, pitting Seattle against Denver. According to published online reports, more than $8 billion was bet on the Super Bowl last year and even more wagering is expected this year.
Of course, the real number of dollars bet on the Super Bowl is impossible to pin down because of offshore books and illegal gambling channels. However, Raphael Esparza, also known as the Vegas Sports Informer and a former Las Vegas sportsbook manager, sent me the following chart from the Nevada Gaming Control Board. It breaks down how much money has been legally wagered on the Super Bowl in the state’s sportsbooks over the last 19 years. The chart also shows how much money the sportsbooks, collectively, won and what their net profit percentage for each Super Bowl has been:
YEAR
MATCHUP
WAGERED
NET PROFIT
WIN %
2013
Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31
$98,936,798
$7,206,460
7.30%
2012
N.Y. Giants 21, New England 17
$93,899,840
$5,064,470
5.40%
2011
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25
$87,491,098
$724,176
0.83%
2010
New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17
$82,726,367
$6,857,101
8.30%
2009
Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
$81,514,748
$6,678,044
8.20%
2008
N.Y. Giants 17, New England 14
$92,055,833
($2,573,103)
-2.80%
2007
Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
$93,067,358
$12,930,175
13.90%
2006
Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
$94,534,372
$8,828,431
9.30%
2005
New England 24, Philadelphia 21
$90,759,236
$15,430,138
17.00%
2004
New England 32, Carolina 29
$81,242,191
$12,440,698
15.30%
2003
Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
$71,693,032
$5,264,963
7.30%
2002
New England 20, St. Louis 17
$71,513,304
$2,331,607
3.30%
2001
Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7
$67,661,425
$11,002,636
16.30%
2000
St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
$71,046,751
$4,237,978
6.00%
1999
Denver 34, Atlanta 19
$75,986,520
$2,906,601
3.80%
1998
Denver 31, Green Bay 24
$77,253,246
$472,033
0.60%
1997
Green Bay 35, New England 21
$70,853,211
$2,265,701
3.20%
1996
Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
$70,907,801
$7,126,145
10.10%
1995
San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
$69,591,818
($396,674)
-0.60%
$1,542,734,949
$108,797,580
7.00%
As you can see, the books have only failed to post a profit on the Super Bowl twice in the last two decades. (See – The House doesn’t ALWAYS win!) And in both instances their losses were nominal.
The rest of the time? Yeah, the sportsbooks are kicking your ass.
Over $1.5 billion has been wagered legally in the state over the last 19 years and the books have turned that into over $100 million in profit. To be honest, I was actually expecting their rake to be even larger.
Las Vegas sportsbooks have actually taken a loss on the straight side bets in several Super Bowls over the past two decades. But the reason that they still show a profit so consistently on Super Sunday is simple.
“The books bank on all the prop bets and all the futures tickets,” said Esparza. “(Even) if you get crushed on the game (there’s still) all the prop bets and futures tickets.”
There has been a 42 percent increase in the amount wagered on the Super Bowl between 1995 and 2013. Some of that can be chalked up to inflation, I suppose. But it is not a coincidence that prop betting has become more popular and become more sophisticated during that same span.
Now, just because Las Vegas sportsbooks nearly always show a profit that doesn’t mean individual bettors can’t turn a profit as well. I am certain that you or your friends or someone you know has some good stories about hitting big on Super Bowl Sunday. I have turned a profit in five straight Super Bowls myself, and I have hit some major scores during that time.
But the fact is that winning in the short term or earning some anecdotal wins is one thing. Consistently beating the books in the marquee gambling event of the year is something else entirely.
“I tell people, ‘It is still ONE football game’”, Esparza added. “If you are looking to hit it big on one game you are better off throwing your money in the toilet and flushing it.
“Bet it smart or just pass!”
$2400.00 -105 'Under' 48.0 Seattle at Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
AND
$2400.00 -105 Take First Half 'Under' 23.5 Seattle at Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
AND
$2400.00 -105 Take First Half #102 Denver (-0.5) over Seattle (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2) 411 play
My best feeling about this game is on the total. I expect this game to be low-scoring and close. Peyton Manning went 'under' in his first Super Bowl against the Bears. Manning also went 'under' in his second Super Bowl against the Saints. The 'under' is 6-3 in the last nine Super Bowls. And none of those games were played in the cold and outdoors like it will be on Sunday in Giants Stadium. The temperature is going to drop below freezing in this game and that is going to slow things down. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the NFL and their defense will play well. The Broncos defense has been improving. They have been playing great over the last few weeks. They have held the last four teams they have played below 17 points. I think that both teams are going to try to run the ball. Both will want to get their running backs going. That will keep the clock going.
I will also be betting on the Broncos in the first half of this game. I think they will get off to a faster start. That will be because of Manning's experience. And because of the experience of John Fox and several key Broncos. But I do not want to worry about who wins in the second half of the game. It will be a slow start and a low scoring first half. And this game will stay 'under' in the second half no matter who wins.
AND
$2400.00 -105 Take First Half 'Under' 23.5 Seattle at Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
AND
$2400.00 -105 Take First Half #102 Denver (-0.5) over Seattle (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2) 411 play
My best feeling about this game is on the total. I expect this game to be low-scoring and close. Peyton Manning went 'under' in his first Super Bowl against the Bears. Manning also went 'under' in his second Super Bowl against the Saints. The 'under' is 6-3 in the last nine Super Bowls. And none of those games were played in the cold and outdoors like it will be on Sunday in Giants Stadium. The temperature is going to drop below freezing in this game and that is going to slow things down. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the NFL and their defense will play well. The Broncos defense has been improving. They have been playing great over the last few weeks. They have held the last four teams they have played below 17 points. I think that both teams are going to try to run the ball. Both will want to get their running backs going. That will keep the clock going.
I will also be betting on the Broncos in the first half of this game. I think they will get off to a faster start. That will be because of Manning's experience. And because of the experience of John Fox and several key Broncos. But I do not want to worry about who wins in the second half of the game. It will be a slow start and a low scoring first half. And this game will stay 'under' in the second half no matter who wins.
