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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]IS IT A "BAD BEAT" IF YOU LOSE ON TURNOVERS?[/FONT]
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You should have heard the complaining from sports bettors Saturday during the NFL playoffs.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Everyone who bet on Tennessee thought they got robbed because the Titans kept turning the ball over in the red zone. "Look at the stats" they said. "Tennessee should have killed them. I was robbed!" [/FONT]
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Of course, these guys don't say anything when turnovers help them out. When turnovers go the other way, they stomp around the sportsbook floor like Phil Hellmuth with a toothache.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Everyone who bet on Carolina kept getting madder and madder at Jake Delhomme's interceptions through the late game. At least this mercy killing was over early. "Oh no, not again" started to take hold. Then it just got worse and worse. [/FONT]
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Those who bet Carolina -10 for the game gave up home relatively quickly. Some guys jumped on them in the second half figuring they'd bounce back. So...we had a NEW group of people complaining about new turnovers! [/FONT]
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There was A LOT of this going on Saturday because the public bets the favorites...and "the public" consists of a lot of people placing relatively small bets (there are fewer sharps, but they place relatively big bets). Everybody was complaining. And they all backed each other up the way gamblers do. Yup, this was the hosejob day of the century. [/FONT]
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Well, there is certainly some luck involved in turnovers. I think the public spends way too much time complaining about them and not enough time handicapping them![/FONT]
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Turnovers aren't random. Baltimore's defense is known for forcing turnovers! It's not a bad beat when you lose to Baltimore because of turnovers. That's how they win. The Ravens have a rookie quarterback. They have to play conservative on offense and hope for field position breaks. It was particularly galling for squares that the Tennessee turnovers kept coming in the red zone. Had they come earlier in drives, Baltimore would have won 20-10 or 23-7 instead of 13-10. That's how Baltimore wins![/FONT]
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Arizona's interception barrage was a lot more uncharacteristic. Jake Delhomme had a horrible game. He's had a few of those this year, but was mostly very good. Still, we're talking about a sport where the trailing team has to take risks to get back in the game. Sometimes those risks result in turnovers. It's normal for the losing team to have lost the turnover department. Arizona was moving the ball so well on offense that it's hard to make the case that Carolina -10 was going to work out even if turnovers broke even. Arizona was scoring points...probably enough to get there unless the Panthers played perfect football. [/FONT]
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You're about to have several months of "down" time in terms of football handicapping. Hopefully you'll sign up with my service and win all through basketball and baseball! But, if you're a football only guy, I strongly encourage you to think about how you can start handicapping games with turnovers in mind. One reason squares are so square is that they DON'T do that![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Do some research and find out which defenses are best at forcing turnovers. You'll find that some teams are great at this every year...and that some defensive coordinators take this ability with them from team to team. Lovie Smith's defenses forced turnovers when he was a coordinator...then his new team got very good at it quickly when he became head coach at Chicago. Defenses that ATTACK force turnovers. I still can't believe how many bettors in Las Vegas and Reno think turnovers are random when we've been watching the same types of defenses force turnovers for YEARS![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Also pay close attention to which defenses DON'T force turnovers. There are some passive approaches that sit back and hope for the best. This is particularly true in the colleges where there just isn't enough defensive superstar talent to go around (especially when you're talking about the bottom 60 teams). Betting on soft defenses just isn't going to make you any money. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Determine which quarterbacks are most likely to be turnover prone. In the pro's, you have years of stats for some guys that are very informative. In the colleges, you have to look at the program history (high risk or low risk), or study new QB's as they develop (young guys are more turnover prone than veterans). [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Be aware that teams become turnover prone when they fall behind. A team that's been losing to superior opposition may seem turnover prone...but then they'll be sharp as can be when they step down in class. Be sure you're thinking logically through the process here. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Remember that weather can play a big role in this category. Fumbles in particular are more common in bad weather. Interceptions on deflections or bad throws are as well. This is why common sense tells you NOT to bed on pass-heavy teams in bad weather. They can have had interception results while also seeing their QB's and receivers become more fumble prone. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Accept that sometimes the breaks go against you. There are some elements of turnovers that ARE random, particularly on deflected passes or how a ball bounces on the ground after a fumble. You will suffer some tough losses. You'll also enjoy some lucky wins. Let those take care of themselves knowing that you'll be a winner in the long run. It's silly to stomp around yelling about bad luck. It really does "mark" you as a poor gambler. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Remember that defenses who emphasize forcing turnovers will often have unimpressive offensive stats themselves. They play conservatively while trying to grind out their edges. This will make the team seem worse than they are because they aren't posting big numbers on the board. This is probably the biggest reason the public underestimates defensive-minded teams. The public loves betting on high scoring teams who pile up yardage and points. The public doesn't trust teams who don't win in that fashion. Well, Baltimore went 12-4 ATS in the regular season and is now 2-0 ATS in the playoffs because the lines haven't reflected the Ravens' true quality. [/FONT]
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You can get a head start by thinking about the turnover category in this weekend's NFL championship games. See if you can find a potential edge in one game or the other. See how that category affects your thinking about where true value may lie in the proposition.[/FONT]
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I promise you, this will become an important part of your thinking process as you become a winning handicapper. And, if you like handicapping all sports, you'll find yourself seeing everything in a whole new light.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll be less interested in who's putting up big numbers, and more interested in who avoids mistakes. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll be less interested in how points or runs are scored, and more interested in how they're prevented. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll be less enamored of favorites because you'll see that the production usually comes with a price that hurts them in their biggest games. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll be more impressed with consistency instead of volume. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll find yourself betting dogs much more often because you're seeing WHY the public makes so many mistakes![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You won't be stomping around mad all the time! Instead of bad breaks turning a 3-2 day into a 2-3 day (or worse), you'll be watching 4-1 turn into 3-2...which is still a money maker. And, more reasonably over a larger sample, you'll be going 11-9 or 12-8 every 20 games instead of .500 or worse. Over 100 bets, the bad luck will barely register. Over a year, you'll be laughing about all the games other people are screaming about one way or the other. You'll have seen how they balance out over the long haul. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]P[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ARITY FAVORS "SHARPS" IN WAGERING TUG OF WAR[/FONT]
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When you get down to crunch time in any sport, the legal betting markets tend to see a "tug of war" between the sharps (professional wagerers based in Las Vegas and Reno) and the "squares" (general public).[/FONT]
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You saw why that favors the sharps so dramatically this past weekend in the NFL playoffs. THE DOGS BIT, AND THEY BIT HARD![/FONT]
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It was one of the most stunning weekends of playoff action we've ever seen. Both top seeds dropped out in less than impressive fashion. Carolina, which just missed being a top seed because they blew a late lead in New York a few weeks ago, got slaughtered at home by Arizona. Everything people THOUGHT they knew about how things were shaping up turned out to be wrong[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The "best" teams weren't the best teams after all. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Having a bye week to get ready turned out to be almost meaningless. Bye teams had been 1-7 ATS the prior two seasons anyway, so people should have been looking for this by now. Now they're 2-10 ATS the last three seasons.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Home field didn't look to be an advantage much of anywhere. Conditions at the Meadowlands worked against Eli Manning, who has always been a warm weather quarterback. The weather was so good at Carolina that Arizona could do what they wanted on offense. Cold temperatures in Tennessee only helped create a defensive struggle that played right into the Ravens hands. San Diego's offense moved the ball fine in the Pittsburgh snow. [/FONT]
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It all comes down to PARITY. I know you've heard the word a thousand times in your life. Why do you keep betting favorites then![/FONT]
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In betting terms, parity means that anything can happen. The teams are much more evenly matched than the public realizes. [/FONT]
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Professional wagerers understand this, and put parity to work for them by taking underdogs. This isn't a 100% rule. A few well known Nevada high rollers loved Carolina this past Saturday Night for example (to their immediate regret). Squares in love with their hometown teams will bet them regardless of the spread. For the most part though, every major sports event is a tug of war between the sharps and the squares.[/FONT]
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Here's how the tug of war takes shape:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Squares bet favorites. The media tends to celebrate popular teams, and create the illusion that they're better than they really are. Think about how all the guys in those TV studio shows kept talking about how great the favorites were last week. You'd have thought the games had already been played! The public bets based on what they hear on television. Also, squares are impressed by big victory margins in past games, even if the vanquished opponent is poor. This is more of a factor in college football than in the pro's right now. The ability to "run up the score" will disappear against strong opposition, but the public acts like it's still there. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps bet underdogs. They realize that parity is alive and well in all sports. There are often minimal differences between teams once you reach the elite stages in any competition. A lot of professional wagerers were on Oklahoma (+) vs. Florida last Thursday Night in the college football championship game. Though the play ended up not winning, the game was still a coin flip in the fourth quarter. It was tied 14-all with 11 minutes to go. Dogs are going to get the money in tight games more than 52% of the time. How did the dogs do in the other BCS bowls? Underdogs Ohio State, Utah, and Virginia Tech got the money against Texas, Alabama, and Cincinnati respectively. USC covered as a favorite in the Rose Bowl. In the five biggest games, dogs went 3-2 ATS. You saw what the dogs did this past weekend in the NFL. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's also note that sharps have always benefited just from the simple strategy of fading the public! Squares finds a way to lose their money. And, you can count on squares to bet at a bad number. I've told you often that oddsmakers aren't trying to split the action these days (that's been a myth for a long time), they're trying to make the public bet at bad numbers. By default, you're betting at a good number if you're going against the public. [/FONT]
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Even if oddsmakers didn't shade lines against the public, I think we'd see a tug of war between sharps and squares because of the clear dog/favorite tendencies. And that the tug of war would turn out in favor of the sharps over the long haul because of PARITY! [/FONT]
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When teams are relatively evenly matched, any points in your favor are basically a gift. It won't feel that way in every single game. But, over 20 games, or 100 games, or a career of betting, those extra points are going to win you money. The teams are so closely matched that anything can happen. Vegas isn't putting pick-em lines on pick-em games. That difference is your profit. [/FONT]
hno:
